Interesting thought. Would you rather have Jake or JBJ in CF?

He would certainly start plenty. We would essentially have a 4 man rotation outfield where Brantley and Tucker need to play in 90-95% of games and the rest is based on matchups and who is hot.

I just don't want Jake penciled in every day. If someone like Naquin is on the roster, he will need and deserve some starts too and is no defensive slouch.

Harry Dunne said:

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tjack16 said:

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Yeah Jake had his chances with the Astros to be an everyday guy. I'm ready for new pieces to prove themselves

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Yes, and the last of those chances was 2019, when he led the team in CF starts and we had 107 Ws.

That's a little tongue in cheek - that team would have had still 100 wins with Tyler White in center and Jake was really never an "everyday" guy in CF, but my point is that he made around half of the team's CF starts from 2015-2019 and has proven he can be a solid platoon CF on great teams.

I agree that we know what Jake is, and it would be more exciting to get a guy with upside, but anyone with upside that can play CF is going to cost, and I think that having a stud defensive everyday CF is overrated (and our own playoff usage proves that).

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This

I am pretty sure I was one of the people heavily arguing against Jake playing. It was mainly due to him being JAG at the plate and us having better hitting options.

I have come around on him and other elite CFers. If you have a stacked line up you can absolutely afford to have a sub-par hitter that can field at a very high level in your 8/9 holes.

Farmer1906 said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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tjack16 said:

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Yeah Jake had his chances with the Astros to be an everyday guy. I'm ready for new pieces to prove themselves

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Yes, and the last of those chances was 2019, when he led the team in CF starts and we had 107 Ws.

That's a little tongue in cheek - that team would have had still 100 wins with Tyler White in center and Jake was really never an "everyday" guy in CF, but my point is that he made around half of the team's CF starts from 2015-2019 and has proven he can be a solid platoon CF on great teams.

I agree that we know what Jake is, and it would be more exciting to get a guy with upside, but anyone with upside that can play CF is going to cost, and I think that having a stud defensive everyday CF is overrated (and our own playoff usage proves that).

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This

I am pretty sure I was one of the people heavily arguing against Jake playing. It was mainly due to him being JAG at the plate and us having better hitting options.

I have come around on him and other elite CFers. If you have a stacked line up you can absolutely afford to have a sub-par hitter that can field at a very high level in your 8/9 holes.

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I'd be more than fine with Marisnick as a bench option like he was, but I dont want him as the everyday CF. I think we can do better. Maybe that means having tucker work in the off-season in center, or getting JBJ

I don't want to see Brantley wedged in between all their power righties. Good incentive for Click/Crane to make re-signing him priority #1 (as if they needed more incentives)

Agreed.

I still like my plans from a few weeks ago.

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If I am the GM and I have 50 M coming off the books in the OF, here is how I spend it reasonably.

Plan A: 42 M over 2 years.
JBJ - 2 year, 18 M. He may hit like Reddick but he's not overly expensive and plays an elite CF.
Brantley - 2 year, 24 M. He should stay above average with his stroke. Plus Yordan will need breaks even if he's just DHing.

Plan B: 2 years, 41 M
JBJ - 2 year, 18 M.
Pederson - 2 year, 20 M. Don't care how big of a dbag he is. He hits righties at a very very high level.
Reddick - 1 year, 3 M. He's just there to platoon with Pederson. He should be cheap. He wants to stay. He's above average vs righties and his declining defense matters less in LF.

Plan C: less than A & B. We better resign Correa if we go this route.
Replace JBJ with Marisnick and be willing to go up a little Brantley or Pederson. No other good realistic hitting options out there.

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mazag08 said:

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He would certainly start plenty. We would essentially have a 4 man rotation outfield where Brantley and Tucker need to play in 90-95% of games and the rest is based on matchups and who is hot.

I just don't want Jake penciled in every day. If someone like Naquin is on the roster, he will need and deserve some starts too and is no defensive slouch.

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We have had a 4-man (or more) outfield rotation for the last decade. The last time we have had even two OFs make 130 outfield starts in the same season was Hunter Pence & Michael Bourn in 2010.

Assuming Brantley comes back, you can't put much stock in anyone but he and Tucker, and even with perfect health from those two Mike is going to DH 20-25 games and sit 15 more. You still have well over 200 OF starts to account for and it would be nice if Straw pans out, but I don't think you can count on that.

So even with Brantley back, you're still definitely bringing in 2 OFs and I think a guy like Jake that will surely be cheap and can play good CF gives you flexibility with what you can do with Tucker in the field and with who that 2nd OF can be (a corner guy that can hit). There is a lot of Naquin nostalgia, but in the 4 seasons since his rookie year he has an aggregate 0.0 WAR. He also hasn't played CF in a couple of years.

This is all so hypothetical, but in general I'd rather spend the money on a starting RF that can hit, take our lumps in the field with Tucker in center and bring in Jake to use situationally (late game, with flyball SP, etc.) than I would bring in JBJ and have a good glove in center but be stuck with his weaker bat at the bottom of the lineup. I also don't want to hear any JBJ renaissance talk. He has a good 55 games in 2020 but I think the 3 full seasons of .727 OPS are who he is.

mazag08 said:

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He would certainly start plenty. We would essentially have a 4 man rotation outfield where Brantley and Tucker need to play in 90-95% of games and the rest is based on matchups and who is hot.

I just don't want Jake penciled in every day. If someone like Naquin is on the roster, he will need and deserve some starts too and is no defensive slouch.

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If we're just looking at Jake as a defensive addition I would still prefer to sign the Cuban Leon and let him take that duty. He's going to be 23 and has played a lot of ball in Cuba. Supposed to be an excellent defender.

Yep.

Leon is a stud, but based on Yuli and Lourdes G., I think it would be surprising to see him at the major league level year 1 and wouldn't expect much out of him until year 2 or 3.

Speaking of Leon. He's showing up in this paid article. Anyone pay for the athletic?

https://theathletic.com/2235409/2020/12/03/might-any-of-the-non-tendered-outfielders-be-a-match-astros-mailbag-part-1/

Give me a few

Nothing meaningful...

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Pedro Leon, what's the latest on him? How about Peter Solomon and also Jairo Sols both coming back from Tommy John surgery? Jose G.

I haven't heard anything that suggests any change to the Astros' reported agreement with Leon, which was never going to become official until the start of the next international signing period. That period was originally set to open on July 2, but was pushed to Jan. 15 because of the pandemic.

Solomon and Solis are both set to be good to go for spring training. Solis would've pitched in 2020 had there been a minor league season. Both righties pitched at the team's recent instructional league in West Palm Beach, Fla.

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Based on the Gurriels I'd think it'd be the opposite.

I think Lourdes had some ups and downs and even after that he settled in relatively quickly. Yuli produced insanely quickly. All he needed was a few weeks in AAA on a rehab assignment.

If he's as good as advertised I don't expect him to spend multiple seasons in the minors.

Ag_07 said:

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Based on the Gurriels I'd think it'd be the opposite.

I think Lourdes had some ups and downs and even after that he settled in relatively quickly. Yuli produced insanely quickly. All he needed was a few weeks in AAA on a rehab assignment.

If he's as good as advertised I don't expect him to spend multiple seasons in the minors.

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I think you are misremembering.

Yuli was terrible as a rookie (.677 OPS)...this is despite being a veteran and basically the Mike Trout of Cuba and having played a ton internationally.

Lourdes played half a season in the minors year 1, then took the first half of the following year in AA & AAA before having a pretty productive 2nd half season as a rookie year 2...but it wasn't until year 3 that he really became a stud and played a full big league season. Lourdes was also I believe three years older than Leon is.

I must be.

I know Lourdes scuffled a bit but I thought Yuli was pretty good when he arrived. At least better and further along than we expected when he arrived.

I remembered there were a lot of extrapolations for his numbers here compared to what he did in Cuba and thought he was pretty close.

Ok so you're using stats from his 36 games in 2016 which yeah I misremembered. I thought he was better than that.

During 2017 (his official rookie year he slashed .299/.332/.486 with an OPS of .817.

That's pretty good for a rookie with 36 games of MLB experience.

Ag_07 said:

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Ok so you're using stats from his 36 games in 2016 which yeah I misremembered. I thought he was better than that.

During 2017 (his official rookie year he slashed .299/.332/.486 with an OPS of .817.

That's pretty good for a rookie with 36 games of MLB experience.

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Yeah Yuli's 2nd year was very solid. He was also a 33 year-old former Cuban League MVP.

My point is that if a 32 year-old MVP takes a year to get acclimated and a 23 year-old top-5 international prospect takes 2 years, it is fair to expect that 21 year-old Pedro Leon will take at least a year before contributing to the Astros.

Harry Dunne said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Ok so you're using stats from his 36 games in 2016 which yeah I misremembered. I thought he was better than that.

During 2017 (his official rookie year he slashed .299/.332/.486 with an OPS of .817.

That's pretty good for a rookie with 36 games of MLB experience.

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Yeah Yuli's 2nd year was very solid. He was also a 33 year-old former Cuban League MVP.

My point is that if a 32 year-old MVP takes a year to get acclimated and a 23 year-old top-5 international prospect takes 2 years, it is fair to expect that 21 year-old Pedro Leon will take at least a year before contributing to the Astros.

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But he didn't take a year. He had 36 games experience and was great the next season.

Besides, go look at the game logs. You're the one misremembering. He came into the league on fire for about 20 games, then Pitchers adjusted and he scuffled badly for the last 16. Then he made an adjustment the next year in spring training and was the Yuli we grew to love.

I'm not saying Leon will do that, but you can't say he don't "based on Yuli"...

You're right, he had a hot start. A lot of people have hot stretches. Tyler White had a hot stretch. Bottom line is even though it was a small sample, Yuli was not very good his first year as an Astro. You're also right that he made an adjustment and was good the second year. same thing happened to Lourdes, although it took him a year just to get to the bigs.

The initial conversation was about whether Pedro Leon can contribute to the Astros in 2021,
right?

I'm saying based on both Gurriels' first years in American professional baseball it is doubtful Leon will contribute in 2021. Do you disagree?

I don't completely disagree.

I just disagree that using the Gurriels as evidence that he'll need 2-3 seasons in MiLB is incorrect.

IMHO if you're using the Gurriels as a baseline then he may need half of 2021 to acclimate then maybe contribute in 2021 then be a mainstay in 2022.

Obviously I hope you're right. We will see.

Yep

And honestly I feel I'm a bit of a Yuli sunshine pumper. I think he's severely underrated and looked over.

I also think he was a diamond in the rough and a great signing. IIRC we wanted to sign him to get Lorde's but it's turned out he's been the better if the two.

Hoping Leon works out as well as Yuli because in my opinion Yuli is one of the top 1B in the AL.

I'd slow down before calling Yuli better than Lourdes. Lil bro is 26 entering his prime. He's rocking a career .836 OPS. It would be amazing if he was on the roster to play left for the next 5 years.

Jays got such an amazing deal @ 7 yrs $22M.

Lourdes made less than Marisnick last year.

Now if he can drive from Alaska to Japan then I'll be impressed.

Mathguy64 said:

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Interesting thought. Would you rather have Jake or JBJ in CF?

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JBJ no question if it's apples to apples but I've seen 2 yrs $6.5M for Jake and as high as 2 yrs $22M for JBJ (probably high relative to the lack of movement, but regardless, a lot more).

To me the questions are:

1. Can Tucker play decent CF?
2. What else can we do with that money and can it help the team more than good CF defense and a Reddick-like bat?

If we lose both Springer and Brantley ... it'll be hard for the fanbase to have any faith in Click. Myself included

I'm not going to lie I'm very worried that he is bringing the rays mindset to this team. Don't spend a lot and build on cheap talent, then let them go when they get expensive. Obviously he hasn't made any moves yet to make me think that is the case, it is just a fear I have given the organization he came from

Click may have his hands tied though. I think Crane will get some hate too.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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This year might not be the year to judge him given then cash problems across the league

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True. I just don't want the Astros to become that type of organization after we've done so well acquiring big pieces and spending money the last 3 years under Lunhow