*****Official Houston Astros 2020-2021 Offseason Thread*****

405,428 Views | 4530 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by tjack16
Ag_07
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I'm thinking Ozuna would be cheaper
Farmer1906
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BCSGrubber said:

Farmer1906 said:

BCSGrubber said:

Mathguy64 said:

Why in the world would we spend money on a big contract for a sub par 30 year old defensive outfielder? Spend it on a 30 year old plus defensive outfielder who is already on your team. The Ozuna talk makes 0 sense.


Because George isn't coming back


He is if we offer him the most money.


I think George is going to want more than Osuza and I could be completely wrong, but I don't see crane paying 5 years 130 mill


I don't either.

I also don't see him paying 4 years 95 M for Ozuna.
Mathguy64
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Ozuna had a career year last year and his projection for next suggests a strong reversion to his mean. I would really be worried he's about to El Caballo 2.0

BCSGrubber
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Farmer1906 said:

BCSGrubber said:

Farmer1906 said:

BCSGrubber said:

Mathguy64 said:

Why in the world would we spend money on a big contract for a sub par 30 year old defensive outfielder? Spend it on a 30 year old plus defensive outfielder who is already on your team. The Ozuna talk makes 0 sense.


Because George isn't coming back


He is if we offer him the most money.


I think George is going to want more than Osuza and I could be completely wrong, but I don't see crane paying 5 years 130 mill


I don't either.

I also don't see him paying 4 years 95 M for Ozuna.


100% with you there. I am interested to see what the market looks like. I wonder if owners are going to be gun shy until closer to ST when they have a better idea if fans can go to games.
W
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Mathguy64 said:

Not Astros related, unless it's George's new team, and the chances just went up by a factor of 24 million.

Mets INF Robinson Cano is officially an idiot. He just got popped for Roids. Since it's his second time he gets 162 games. That's $24 MM that the Mets now have to spend elsewhere.
welcome to MLB ownership Steve Cohen.

you know in the old days a front office would be upset about this; but, yes, getting to save $24 MM on a 38-year old ballplayer...um, that's not all bad

Farmer1906
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Does the two time being popped for roids end Cano's HOF shot?
Mathguy64
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Farmer1906 said:

Does the two time being popped for roids end Cano's HOF shot?


The first time did. The second time is icing on the cake.
tjack16
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Farmer1906 said:

tjack16 said:

Mathguy64 said:

Why in the world would we spend money on a big contract for a sub par 30 year old defensive outfielder? Spend it on a 30 year old plus defensive outfielder who is already on your team. The Ozuna talk makes 0 sense.
because In 2020 Ozuna batted .338/.431/.636 (each 3rd in the NL) with an NL-leading 18 home runs, 56 RBI

and George isn't coming back. writing is on the wall. I'd be shocked if he does sign with us, even if we offer him a huge deal

Ozuna would be an awesome replacement and his bat instantly replaces George's in a lineup


He would. It's almost like if we're willing to spend that kind of money, we should offer it to... say... GEORGE SPRINGER?!


Look, George is my favorite Astro. I really want him to stay. I'd offer him more than other teams would. But I just don't think he's going to stay or that we will offer him the most.
astros4545
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Farmer1906 said:

Does the two time being popped for roids end Cano's HOF shot?


100%
cc10106
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W said:

Mathguy64 said:

Not Astros related, unless it's George's new team, and the chances just went up by a factor of 24 million.

Mets INF Robinson Cano is officially an idiot. He just got popped for Roids. Since it's his second time he gets 162 games. That's $24 MM that the Mets now have to spend elsewhere.
welcome to MLB ownership Steve Cohen.

you know in the old days a front office would be upset about this; but, yes, getting to save $24 MM on a 38-year old ballplayer...um, that's not all bad


Approx. $20 MM for NY and $4 MM for SEA who traded him. Nice break for both teams for sure considering all the lost revenue.
Farmer1906
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Good news. Springer is all forgiven and actually really really good now that's he's a FA.

https://www.mlb.com/news/george-springer-ranks-among-top-mlb-hitters
n_touch
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Of course he is. People are dumb. Any Astro that leaves will be forgiven and all will be right in the world for them. Players on the Astros 10 yrs from now that had nothing to do with ot will still be booed. Just the nature of fans.
Marvin
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Farmer1906 said:

Good news. Springer is all forgiven and actually really really good now that's he's a FA.

https://www.mlb.com/news/george-springer-ranks-among-top-mlb-hitters

Interesting article next on that page. 1 untouchable player for each team. I picked Bregman, and I was wrong... at least according to this guy.

Quote:

This week we take a look at the one player on every team who is absolutely untouchable. You might see some guys traded in the next couple of months. But not these guys.

Quote:

Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF (age 23)
The Astros are in a period of considerable transition, but Tucker finally broke though this year and looks to be, right now, the only outfielder the Astros reliably have.

Last year's pick: Alex Bregman

It's an interesting debate. I would still choose Bregman, but Tucker is definitely in the discussion after considering our outfield sitatuion.
JJxvi
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You have to consider that Bregman costs $90 million over the next 4 years while for Tucker, that number is likely to be $30 max and basically zilch for the next two.
Mathguy64
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The Astros untouchable player is a Cuban missile launcher who goes by the name of Yordan.
Lonestar_Ag09
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Limiting to one is pretty stupid, but I guess this time of year they need click bait

1. Alvarez
2. Bregman
3. Tucker

None of those three are going absolutely anywhere

Who would you say the next level of 1 in a million trades to move them? My guesses are

1. Altuve
2. Javier
3. Urquidy
Ag_07
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I'm concerned with Yordan's knees.

He needs to stay healthy before I consider him untouchable.

Tucker
Framber
Bregs

In that order
Lonestar_Ag09
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Ag_07 said:

I'm concerned with Yordan's knees.

He needs to stay healthy before I consider him untouchable.

Tucker
Framber
Bregs

In that order
If his knees are bad then he will be done but he still wouldn't be traded. You arent going to risk someone else can find a knee cure

but I think the double knee surgeries this off season were a positive. Im staying optimistic

Forgot about Framber...yes I agree there
CoachRTM
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I'm just penciling in Yordan as our version of Big Papi.

Someone you wish would learn how to play first base, probably never will, but his bat is worth it anyway.

If he actually learns how to play first base, I'll consider it a plus.

Ag_07
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My point was if Yordan continues to have issues I'd have no problem trading him if a team came along and made a nice offer.

Lot of ifs in that scenario and not saying I want them to move Yordan but that's the reason why I say he's not untouchable.

I'd probably put him in that 2nd tier of movable but only if I'm blown away. Not quite untouchable.
Farmer1906
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Good teams very rarely trade away good big-league players. We can basically pencil in Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Framber, Urquidy, Paredes, Javier, Yordan, McCullers, & Greinke all as very very very unlikely to ever be traded.
Farmer1906
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Fangraphs article on the top 50 FA, along with their estimated contract and a breif breakdown.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

Some of the OF from the list











Mathguy64
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That Fangraphs article also hits on the real issue here When George got held down for those extra two weeks the year of service time will likely translate into a $100 MM hit to him. George last year (30yo and pre-Covid) gets north of $200MM. Now at 31 and post covid it could be $100 MM.

Thats a massive metric crap ton of money for those 2 weeks.
CoachRTM
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Yep. Ouch.
mazag08
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George should blame the players union for that and not the Astros. The Astros made the right move within the confines of the rules and accepted practices.

The union keeps young players cheap so older players can make more money.
Marvin
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mazag08 said:

George should blame the players union for that and not the Astros. The Astros made the right move within the confines of the rules and accepted practices.

The union keeps young players cheap so older players can make more money.

And the result is that teams end up paying future dollars for past performance. Stupid.
W
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that's what Clayton Kershaw said a while back.

something like: "we're underpaid early and overpaid late"
07ag
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30348135/espn-broadcast-four-mlb-games-opening-day-2021

9pm first pitch for season opener, and on espn

boooooo
https://ts.la/eric59704
Farmer1906
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If I am the GM and I have 50 M coming off the books in the OF, here is how I spend it reasonably.

Plan A: 42 M over 2 years.
JBJ - 2 year, 18 M. He may hit like Reddick but he's not overly expensive and plays an elite CF.
Brantley - 2 year, 24 M. He should stay above average with his stroke. Plus Yordan will need breaks even if he's just DHing.

Plan B: 2 years, 41 M
JBJ - 2 year, 18 M.
Pederson - 2 year, 20 M. Don't care how big of a dbag he is. He hits righties at a very very high level.
Reddick - 1 year, 3 M. He's just there to platoon with Pederson. He should be cheap. He wants to stay. He's above average vs righties and his declining defense matters less in LF.

Plan C: less than A & B. We better resign Correa if we go this route.
Replace JBJ with Marisnick and be willing to go up a little Brantley or Pederson. No other good realistic hitting options out there.
Farmer1906
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https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/george-springer-where-will-he-sign.html

Decent little conversation. Looks like a lot of the MLB writers are thinking Red Sox or Blue Jays. Mentioned Mets too.
Mathguy64
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Boston makes no financial sense. They just unloaded huge contracts in Price and Betts and are still in a mess with Bogaerts looming. I can't see them adding the biggest FA contract going. If they were going to do that they could have kept Betts.
Farmer1906
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I agree. Not sure what they're doing right now.
Mathguy64
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They are getting ready to cheat their way to another WS.
Deluxe
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Red Sox tried to get cute with Betts and paid the price. Used him a chip to offload a terrible contract (Price) and get a prospect, hoping that he'd hit the market again and they could sign him again. Got burned when he signed long term with the Dodgers. Wouldn't be that surprised to see them go on tilt a little and overpay for George.
Deluxe
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Mathguy64 said:

They are getting ready to cheat their way to another WS.
Their managerial choice indicates this is possible
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