*****Official Houston Astros 2020-2021 Offseason Thread*****

400,632 Views | 4530 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by tjack16
Deluxe
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Harry Dunne said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Harry Dunne said:

BMX Bandit said:

The espn free agent ranking article is predicting Springer at 4 years, $108 million and Brantley at 1 year, $10 million.

Seems very low for Brantley
Seems super low for a hitter of his caliber, especially since (at least as far as the analytics are concerned) he still plays pretty good defense.

Obviously he's two years older than his last contract but he has two more years of being healthy and I think he has come to know his body and its limits and does what it takes to stay healthy while still producing.

With this thin OF FA market I am disappointed we didn't make the Q.O.
I would say this is the EXACT reason why he did not get a QO...Analysts are saying his contract will be HALF of what the QO was....so why would you offer 19mil? Heck even if you ended up paying 14 or 16...youd be an idiot to pay way over that in a season youre trying to stretch every dollar
Maybe that's right - we'll see, but don't pretend like you've got a crystal ball. A lot of self-styled experts said we'd be idiots to sign CFM to a QO or match TB's contract and I think we would have two more rings if we had.

So maybe tap the brakes on the idiot talk and just say you disagree. You might be right. I think he's worth the money. I'll be thrilled to get him for less and I'll be disappointed if he goes elsewhere for a reasonable price.
Nevermind
Deluxe
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W said:

that was funny when Colby Rasmus took the Q.O. in 2016.

made every team in the league afraid
Yep. Risky business trying to sneak a draft pick.
Ag_07
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I mean George wouldn't be crazy to accept that QO, play another year, then hit the open market once the revenues bounce back a little.

Lot of risk in that approach but seems like he could make more playing 1 year under the QO then a 4 year contract rather than what hes gonna get on a 5 year contract this year.
Farmer1906
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Market may improve but his value does not and he has more competition.
Big Al 1992
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Wacha plus Strom = winning!
tjack16
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I'm more than fine with JBJ in left.. But at 4 years 108 MM we should be going all in on Springer. Up the price if you have to in order to outbid NYM and BOS
Ag_07
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Good point
Lonestar_Ag09
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Harry Dunne said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Harry Dunne said:

BMX Bandit said:

The espn free agent ranking article is predicting Springer at 4 years, $108 million and Brantley at 1 year, $10 million.

Seems very low for Brantley
Seems super low for a hitter of his caliber, especially since (at least as far as the analytics are concerned) he still plays pretty good defense.

Obviously he's two years older than his last contract but he has two more years of being healthy and I think he has come to know his body and its limits and does what it takes to stay healthy while still producing.

With this thin OF FA market I am disappointed we didn't make the Q.O.
I would say this is the EXACT reason why he did not get a QO...Analysts are saying his contract will be HALF of what the QO was....so why would you offer 19mil? Heck even if you ended up paying 14 or 16...youd be an idiot to pay way over that in a season youre trying to stretch every dollar
Maybe that's right - we'll see, but don't pretend like you've got a crystal ball. A lot of self-styled experts said we'd be idiots to sign CFM to a QO or match TB's contract and I think we would have two more rings if we had.

So maybe tap the brakes on the idiot talk and just say you disagree. You might be right. I think he's worth the money. I'll be thrilled to get him for less and I'll be disappointed if he goes elsewhere for a reasonable price.
Q.O. are 1 yr deals....so how would that have won us 2 rings?

And yes I feel I have the right to call anyone an idiot who pays double for something. only politicians get paid double the price for doing something.
W
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Big Al 1992 said:

Wacha plus Strom = winning!
he would be rather cheap
Fat Bib Fortuna
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Harry Dunne said:

I agree with most of your post, but last year he tied for 1st for the Fielding Bible award as the best LF in all of baseball. I don't think he's as good as that implies and I also don't think he's as bad as you're saying he is...but at the very least he's a capable corner OF.

I know OF can fall off a cliff pretty quick in their 30s defensively (Reddick) and I don't think his fielding is a plus anymore, but I don't think it's a strike against him yet.
I'm going with the sight test of the games I watched, which was all of the playoffs and maybe 2-3 innings per night of the rest. I don't know what the Fielding Bible is, butthe two things I see from Brantley in the OF are TYPICALLY - an average to below-average arm and an average to below-average approach to pursuing balls in the gap or down the line.

I don't see him making a lot of plays where it appears he understands how balls are going to bounce off the wall at MMP or anywhere else, nor down in the corner. I don't think he has the arm to threaten anyone against taking the extra base on a ball in the corner or stretching first to third or scoring from second on a single to left.

Fielding percentage is a pretty frustrating statistic because guys with incredible range and play-making ability are inherently going to produce more errors simply by getting to more balls and attempting more throws than the middle-of-the-road guy. I feel like at some points in the 80s/90s, Ryne Sanderberg had a long errorless streak but ESPN had the balls to point out it wasn't that impressive because his range had declined and he was not close enough to make a play on a lot of balls that could have been a great play or an error depending on how he handled them.

I love Uncle Mike the hitter, and he's clutch as hell, but if it comes down to keeping Springer/Correa, he had to be let go and a cheaper/younger/better fielding replacement found, even if it comes with the acknolwedgement of a dropoff in production.
tjack16
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So question about Brantley.

2019 he basically played every game in left and even made one of the best diving catch/double plays you will ever see in the ALCS

How come he all of a sudden is a "DH only" moving forward?

I know he had an injury this year but I think he's still got 2 years of LF still in him
scrimp
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I agree. Brantley may not be a great outfielder at this point, but eyeball test and 2020 metrics suggest that he's at least a serviceable LF. Maybe average to slightly below average.

Since it seems Yordan is unlikely to be an every day field player at any spot, that seems to logjam the DH spot. So, does uncle Mike's bat produce more runs that his fielding gives up?
Lonestar_Ag09
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tjack16 said:

So question about Brantley.

2019 he basically played every game in left and even made one of the best diving catch/double plays you will ever see in the ALCS

How come he all of a sudden is a "DH only" moving forward?

I know he had an injury this year but I think he's still got 2 years of LF still in him
Because random people have decided they want to say he is....not baseball analysts, scouts or coaches....but TexAgsers. So its a guarantee lock it down and get in line
Fat Bib Fortuna
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tjack16 said:

So question about Brantley.

2019 he basically played every game in left and even made one of the best diving catch/double plays you will ever see in the ALCS

How come he all of a sudden is a "DH only" moving forward?

I know he had an injury this year but I think he's still got 2 years of LF still in him
60 game season, he missed 15 games either hurt or taking a rest. He only played 19 games in the field, and the other 26 at DH. Granted, with Yordan out it made sense to DH Brantley and get a Reddick or Straw on the field for defensive purposes, but that's still 41 out of a 60 game sample where he was either hurt or playing DH.

I think this is sort of getting away from my initial point of the fact that as an average fielder who is getting older and playing the OF less and less, it makes sense to try and replace Brantley with a younger/cheaper player at this point rather than spend money on him that could go towards retaining Springer and Correa, two plus plus fielders who are bigger power hitters than he is.
Lonestar_Ag09
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MuckRaker96 said:

tjack16 said:

So question about Brantley.

2019 he basically played every game in left and even made one of the best diving catch/double plays you will ever see in the ALCS

How come he all of a sudden is a "DH only" moving forward?

I know he had an injury this year but I think he's still got 2 years of LF still in him
60 game season, he missed 15 games either hurt or taking a rest. He only played 19 games in the field, and the other 26 at DH. Granted, with Yordan out it made sense to DH Brantley and get a Reddick or Straw on the field for defensive purposes, but that's still 41 out of a 60 game sample where he was either hurt or playing DH.

I think this is sort of getting away from my initial point of the fact that as an average fielder who is getting older and playing the OF less and less, it makes sense to try and replace Brantley with a younger/cheaper player at this point rather than spend money on him that could go towards retaining Springer and Correa, two plus plus fielders who are bigger power hitters than he is.
And all this data but as you said, you only watched roughly 1/3 of the season. And I can guarantee you he wouldn't have been at DH at all had Yordan been there...and he also wouldnt have been out of the lineup
scrimp
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I get your point, but I'm not sure you can replace MB's bat with a cheaper player. He's just so dang consistent with the bat--seems to rarely slump or get super hot--just consistently gets hits.
tjack16
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let's assume we don't sign springer at this point just for hypothetical even though it would kill me

Would you be okay with this as an outfield
RF - Tucker
CF - Bradley Jr.
LF - Brantley
DH - Alvarez

personally... I'd be 100% good with that outfield if we end up losing George
scrimp
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I think if that means you can lock in CC to a long term deal sometime, then that would work. As much as I'd hate to see GS go, I realize that money is the main factor for both owners and players.

I do think it is funny that people worry about a 33 yo Brantley declining with age and think a 2 year contract is too much for a player that old. Yet some want to throw a 4-5 year contract to 31 yo Springer...
Frok
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scrimp said:

I think if that means you can lock in CC to a long term deal sometime, then that would work. As much as I'd hate to see GS go, I realize that money is the main factor for both owners and players.

I do think it is funny that people worry about a 33 yo Brantley declining with age and think a 2 year contract is too much for a player that old. Yet some want to throw a 4-5 year contract to 31 yo Springer...


I'm guilty of this. Why does Brantley seem so much older than Springer?
Fat Bib Fortuna
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scrimp said:

I get your point, but I'm not sure you can replace MB's bat with a cheaper player. He's just so dang consistent with the bat--seems to rarely slump or get super hot--just consistently gets hits.
That's not what I said. I said if you're going with the idea that you can't keep Correa, Springer, and Brantley, you have to try and replace Brantley with a cheaper player who hits .280, gets 15 HR and plays a decent LF.

I agree he's a fantastic player, but among those 3, he is the clear #3 choice to keep
tjack16
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Frok said:

scrimp said:

I think if that means you can lock in CC to a long term deal sometime, then that would work. As much as I'd hate to see GS go, I realize that money is the main factor for both owners and players.

I do think it is funny that people worry about a 33 yo Brantley declining with age and think a 2 year contract is too much for a player that old. Yet some want to throw a 4-5 year contract to 31 yo Springer...


I'm guilty of this. Why does Brantley seem so much older than Springer?


Springer has been in the majors since 2014, and Brantley since 2009

That's probably why. Springer went to college so that gave him a later MLB start
Harry Dunne
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Harry Dunne said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Harry Dunne said:

BMX Bandit said:

The espn free agent ranking article is predicting Springer at 4 years, $108 million and Brantley at 1 year, $10 million.

Seems very low for Brantley
Seems super low for a hitter of his caliber, especially since (at least as far as the analytics are concerned) he still plays pretty good defense.

Obviously he's two years older than his last contract but he has two more years of being healthy and I think he has come to know his body and its limits and does what it takes to stay healthy while still producing.

With this thin OF FA market I am disappointed we didn't make the Q.O.
I would say this is the EXACT reason why he did not get a QO...Analysts are saying his contract will be HALF of what the QO was....so why would you offer 19mil? Heck even if you ended up paying 14 or 16...youd be an idiot to pay way over that in a season youre trying to stretch every dollar
Maybe that's right - we'll see, but don't pretend like you've got a crystal ball. A lot of self-styled experts said we'd be idiots to sign CFM to a QO or match TB's contract and I think we would have two more rings if we had.

So maybe tap the brakes on the idiot talk and just say you disagree. You might be right. I think he's worth the money. I'll be thrilled to get him for less and I'll be disappointed if he goes elsewhere for a reasonable price.
Q.O. are 1 yr deals....so how would that have won us 2 rings?

And yes I feel I have the right to call anyone an idiot who pays double for something. only politicians get paid double the price for doing something.

I said QO or match Tampa Bay's offer, which was two years. Let's maybe work on that reading comprehension before questioning others' intelligence.

You're also calling me an idiot as if I am disagreeing with a fact. It would be dumb to make a qualifying offer if he was willing to come back here for a year and 10 million, but no one really knows how much money he'll get for how many years.

Like Deluxe said before editing himself, you're a good poster but tone it down with the diva act. We're all Aggies and Astros fans. I've been called worse, but no need to come at me like that just because I don't agree with you.
AggiEE
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MuckRaker96 said:

scrimp said:

I get your point, but I'm not sure you can replace MB's bat with a cheaper player. He's just so dang consistent with the bat--seems to rarely slump or get super hot--just consistently gets hits.
That's not what I said. I said if you're going with the idea that you can't keep Correa, Springer, and Brantley, you have to try and replace Brantley with a cheaper player who hits .280, gets 15 HR and plays a decent LF.

I agree he's a fantastic player, but among those 3, he is the clear #3 choice to keep


Really depends though, I think I'd much rather sign Correa to a long term deal than Springer.

If Springer wants more than 3-4 years with a contract over 100M it may make sense to try and extend Correa and get Brantley for cheaper
MaxPower
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Jackie Bradley is a higher priority than Brantley. We need a legit CF who is at least passable as a hitter. Straw, for all his speed, is neither. We can piece together a LF but CF is a different story.
Lonestar_Ag09
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I specifically was not calling you an idiot. I was calling a GM who actually makes the decisions. Absolutely no GM who thinks there is any chance the guy would sign a 1 year deal for 10,11,12,13...million would not offer 19 million. That is only offered if you want them to take it or you know there is no way they will accept it.

I will admit I did not see the match portion and I stand corrected HD, some of those popping out of the wood works that are never on here and saying outlandish stuff though...not you though.

Thanks and Gig Em
tjack16
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Offer Brantley 2 years 30 MM

I feel like that's fair and probably the higher end of his yearly salary options
Lonestar_Ag09
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On another note, what decides what a QO is? I thought it varied by position and was based on an average of that position group.
BMX Bandit
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

On another note, what decides what a QO is? I thought it varied by position and was based on an average of that position group.


You mean "franchise tag"? Wrong board
Farmer1906
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tjack16 said:

Offer Brantley 2 years 30 MM

I feel like that's fair and probably the higher end of his yearly salary options


In this market, I think he'll be had for more like 2 year 20-22 M or 3 year 30 M. Just my guess.

Whoever said an OF if Brantley, JBJ, & Ted I am all for it. Yordan is your DH and MB gets regular off days to let Straw get some work.

That's gunna blow pretty much all of your FA money so we'll have work on the bullpen very inexpensively.
Farmer1906
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BMX Bandit said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

On another note, what decides what a QO is? I thought it varied by position and was based on an average of that position group.


You mean "franchise tag"? Wrong board

Haha

It's the avg of the top 100? (Maybe 125) players avg salary the year before.
agproducer
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I want Springer back like many of you. He's my favorite Astro. That being said, he is likely going to take the most money elsewhere, and honestly, I don't blame him. He needs to maximize his earnings and the Astros likely won't do that for him.

I would be ok with JBJ as a bridge until Leon is ready for the majors. I'm assuming the Astros are still going to sign Leon when the international signing period starts in January.



spadilly
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agproducer said:

I want Springer back like many of you. He's my favorite Astro. That being said, he is likely going to take the most money elsewhere, and honestly, I don't blame him. He needs to maximize his earnings and the Astros likely won't do that for him..



This is exactly how I feel. It's going to be hard to watch him go, and he has been the heart and soul of our team. And he has done so much good for the community and kids with his stuttering foundation/outreach.

That said, the Astros screwed him over once already with delaying his call up, and I will never blame someone for taking the money if offered.

Bittersweet.
Mathguy64
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If he leaves I just hope it's an NL team like the Mets. I do not want to have to watch him on the other side on any regular basis. If Arte Moreno were to get stupid with money and George ended a halo I would be crushed.
Ag_07
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I'd be more concerned if Luhnow became the Angels GM.

Luhnow with that check book would be a disaster.
Mathguy64
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I don't think Moreno is that smart.
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