Yordan is a big wheel in this cog.

Because you may be OK with giving George a longer contract if he could slot into the DH role later in the contract. But with Yordan there that's not doable.

But with his health issues so early in his career can you count on Yordan being the DH that long? Maybe there is a spot for George as DH by the year 5/6 of his contract.

We HAVE to do "QO's" for both Bradley and Springer... right?

They don't have a 2022 Market Value prediction for Carlos yet, but Lindor's is 8 yrs $222.5M

I know these are just guesses, but let's pretend they're spot on:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/2021/

George @ 4 yrs $100M, or

(assuming Yordan could play the field a bit and these guys would even come here...)
Nelson Cruz 1 yr $9M
+
Jackie Bradley jr. 1 yr $9M
+
Money to spend on pitching

I don't think JBJ is signing a 1-year deal. I also wouldn't assume Yordan can play the field.

Harry Dunne said:

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assuming Yordan could play the field a bit

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You might as well assume Aledmys Diaz can play all 162

Yordan won't be playing the field. I think it's a huge mistake to make that assumption and plan accordingly.

I think to make a fair assessment you need to assume he'll never play the field.

On one hand there's some more money freed up but on the other add closer to the list of needs.

I always assumed that. Just meant it's now officially on the list.

While I'm not on board for shelling out for a top end closer it's obvious Pressley can't do it especially over a full 162 season.

Farmer1906 said:

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I don't think JBJ is signing a 1-year deal. I also wouldn't assume Yordan can play the field.

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Yes, most likely Re: both players.

I was trying to make more of a general point that there will be talented and productive players available on short deals for good prices and a good GM finds and sign those guys rather than getting saddled with a long, lucrative deal with an aging player.

Farmer, is there a way of projecting our 2021 win total if we do nothing this offseason? Like if all our free agents leave and we don't sign any external replacements. Just curious what the floor is.

CoachRTM said:

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Voted. Have a feeling it's going to be a very 2017 heavy bracket.

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There is definitely more recency bias with my voting... but I also wasn't alive for anything pre mid-90s so most of my top moments are from 1998-2020

To me, my final 4 will be Final Out 2017 WS, Altuve Game 6 walk off, Burke Walk off, and final out of 2005 NLCS to send us to our first ever WS.

IF we don't sign either springer or brantley

we have to get a good outfield bat. Or at least an average outfielder who won't be a black hole in our lineup.

JBJ on a 2 year deal would be fine with me and should be cheap. Or try to get Ozuna on a bigger deal.

Hasn't JBJ been pretty awful offensively the past couple years?

If you're looking for a good to decent bat I'm not sure he's your guy.

Ag_07 said:

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Hasn't JBJ been pretty awful offensively the past couple years?

If you're looking for a good to decent bat I'm not sure he's your guy.

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He's an upgrade from straw and Reddick. But also he hit .283 this year so not that bad. He would have been one of our top 5 hitters this year with his stat line

Had he been on our 2020 lineup would have been
2nd in BA (.283)
3rd in HR (7)
5th in RBI (23)
4th in OPS (.814)
2nd in WAR (1.8)

Deluxe said:

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Farmer, is there a way of projecting our 2021 win total if we do nothing this offseason? Like if all our free agents leave and we don't sign any external replacements. Just curious what the floor is.

---

I'm sure there is. I'm not sure I'll want to though. I would guess we'd be about 80 wins off the top of my head.

Ag_07 said:

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Hasn't JBJ been pretty awful offensively the past couple years?

If you're looking for a good to decent bat I'm not sure he's your guy.

---

.814 OPS this year, but you're right - the previous couple of years had been very Reddick-like. Main difference is that he's still a top 10 defensive CF and you could do worse than signing him to a reasonable 2-year deal, hoping his good hitting continues and giving Straw time to figure his isht out.

I wouldn't hate getting Mike on the QO and having a Mike/JBJ/Tucker OF with JBJ playing good CF and batting 8th.

I think it will be interesting to see if the Astros try to get a typical closer, or if Click goes with the Rays method of "closer by committee". Looking at the Rays numbers, they were at the top in number of saves this year (23 scattered across 12 guys), and near the bottom in blown saves. Astros, on the other hand, had 16, with Pressly getting most of those (12) and Scrubb, Osuna, Taylor and Raley notching one each.

Rays spent about 11M on their relief pitching total, including guys on the IL. Looks like they had 1 player at 2.1M, two guys at ~1M, and the rest at the league minimum contracts.

Astros spent about 29M, with Osuna (10M), Pressly (8.75M), Peacock (3.9M), Devo (2M) being the non-minimum contracts.

The Rays traded away their 2019 closer in Feb 2020 and it didn't seem to negatively impact them.

Oh my. The White Sox just hired their new manager. It is.








Wait for it.










None other than....












Tony Freaking LaRussa.

Start laughing now. Go for it.

I'm never going to say that hiring a 76 year-old manager is a home run, but you could certainly do worse.

I guess they could have hired Brad Mills. LaRussa hasn't managed a baseball game since 2011. There is no way this goes well.

Those patrons who had the "Dusty Baker and Tony LaRussa will both manage teams in 2021" parlay, please come pick up your winnings at Window 2. A complimentary wheelbarrow will carry your winnings to your vehicle and our House Security will be available at your request.

Ready to see who picks up Jim Leyland

3B Paul 97 said:

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Ready to see who picks up Jim Leyland

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Can you imagine seeing Leyland firing up lung darts in the dugout area?

Apologies if this has been discussed but we have three more days to decide if we're going to make a ~$19mm qualifying offer to Brantley. Given the way the market is shaping up, I can more and more see him taking it.

The trickle down effect is if we assume only one of Springer/Brantley will be back, and Brantley accepts the QO, that effectively puts a nail in the Springer coffin. But having Uncle Mike back on a team friendly one year deal doesn't seem like a bad consolation prize. Will be interesting to see how the organization handles this.

We also have three days to pickup a $2mm 2021 option on Raley. This seems like a no brainer, right?

Keith Law thinks Springer is the top Free Agent this year, and says this:

Quote:

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He's the player most deserving of a contract of six years or longer in this market, a potential 25-win player over a deal of that length even with some offensive decline in his mid-30s.

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Make it happen, Crane!

Here is the whole blurb on Springer

Quote:

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In a year without a Bryce Harper or Manny Machado (or, as it turns out, Mookie Betts) in free agency, Springer looks like the best long-term bet among position players to perform like a star now and still hold value well into his 30s. He's the best athlete in the class and has a strong history of performance at the plate, with the second-best wOBA and wRC+ among free-agent hitters this year, behind only 40-year-old Nelson Cruz. Springer has strong plate discipline, posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career in the truncated 2020 season, and has shown he can hit velocity as well as offspeed stuff, with five of his 14 homers this year coming on fastballs 95 mph or more. He's regularly among the league leaders in exit velocity and barrels per PA or per batted-ball event, slipping slightly this past year after finishing in the top 20 in those categories in the full season of 2019. He was a little more pull-conscious in 2020, although the season was so short it could easily just be noise.

He's an above-average defender in center field with the speed and instincts to stay up the middle for several more years, at the least, and has the potential to move to right field and be above-average there if and when he has to move out of center. While not much of a base stealer, he's still a good enough runner to add a little value on the bases and to give the signing team confidence that he'll have value on defense for the life of the contract. The defensive and positional value plus his history of power and strong on-base percentages make him the best free agent on the market, and he's one of the only free agents this year who has the kind of 7-win upside that could make him an MVP candidate and an immediate difference-maker to a contender.

Some teams may wonder about Astros hitters who were there in 2017, during the sign-stealing period, but Springer's best year came after that. He set career highs in AVG/OBP/SLG, wOBA, wRC+ and WAR in 2019, and he struck out at one of the lowest rates of his career in 2020, so there should be no concerns about whether his performance is sustainable. He's the player most deserving of a contract of six years or longer in this market, a potential 25-win player over a deal of that length even with some offensive decline in his mid-30s.

---

Here is the rest of Law's top 20 free agents

Realmuto
Bauer
Stroman
M. Ozuna
Semien
LeMahieu
Gregorius
Kolten Wong
JBJ
Brantley
J. Turner
J. Paxton
A. Simmons
Tanaka
K. Gausman
Ha-Seong Kim
Jos Quintana
Taijuan Walker
Nelson Cruz

The Yankees have some big names on that list. And they will not want to let them go. Hicks and Judge are on deck.

TREX01 said:

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I guess they could have hired Brad Mills. LaRussa hasn't managed a baseball game since 2011. There is no way this goes well.

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Is he any worse than Dusty? They have a good team, he's a smart guy and unlike Dusty he has actually won some rings.

Again, you can really never call it a huge get when you hire a guy who might be dead by the time your draft picks reach the majors, but I would be shocked if they had a terrible 2021 season.

Keith Law is high on Springer.

ignoring his 2018 season (.780 OPS) and injury history.

however if the playoffs are going to stay at 8 teams per league...then injury history is almost irrelevant. Any player can miss 30 to 40 games and it won't hurt his team too much

redline248 said:

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Here is how Keith Law starts his free agent article.

Quote:

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Owners are shedding personnel to save a few pennies, savings that seem miserly in this climate and often involve letting go of hundreds of years of institutional knowledge.

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Save pennies and miserly, in a year where they lost a reported 3 billion.

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this is so the fans don't get upset when their team doesn't spend any money in free agency.

"hey, we're having to lay off are own people...we can't sign any new players"

Maybe, but they operate like any other business. You cut revenue by a significant amount, you end up cutting expenses, too.