Do they go off of win pct? Is there a minimum number of games you need to play to reach playoffs?

I think they end up going by winning percentage

Have to play at least 50 games

Nobody feed the troll on cardinal boys thread

Y'all fed the troll

Talking about bunting and the reduction of station to station baseball; my brother and I often talk about what the future of sports will look like; and what will teams try next as the way to break the mold and gain an advantage. One thing we talk about in baseball is the fact that over time if things remain as they are, eventually catchers will only need to be good at blocking the plate and calling a game - having a strong arm for throwing out baserunners will become a perk, not a necessity. We've already seen a guy like Gary Sanchez emerge as a plus hitter and a meh catcher.

We discussed that if this sort of mentality becomes the norm, would a team - particularly one without the budget ability to go after traditional offensive superstars - begin to cultivate speed as a weapon again? My brother wasn't much of a sports fan growing up but I've gotten him into watching old baseball and football games on YouTube (70s/80s era) and breaking them down for strategy and stuff.

Anyway, he's currently watching the '85 World Series between the Cards and Royals. The Cards stole 314 bases as a team in 1985 - 3 guys with 30-35, Willie McGee with 56 and rookie Vince Coleman with the outlandish 110. If a team even had a few guys running enough to steal 30-40 bases a year who could bunt for hits, it would seem like it could really disrupt a lot of conventional tactics, particularly the not-so-great defensive guys playing 1B these days and some of the shift work.

Just some spitballing for an off day.

Any idea who the Angels are throwing Friday? According to ESPN we are going LMJ

Boiling Denim said:

---

Harry Dunne said:

---

mathguy86 said:

---

I'm sorry. This was mismanaged by Baker as much as it was a lack of productivity. Twice he had the chance to play for 1 run and twice he did the wrong thing. It's one thing to play it right and not execute. It's another altogether to not understand what the right decision is.

And I don't blame the hitters for not hitting. They basically havent seen other pitchers. It's all been intrasquad games until KC.

---

I love when dudes on Texags talk like they understand baseball decisions better than a baseball lifer.

---

Yeah Bill O'brien calls amazing timeouts every game. No way some 17 year old kid who's played a thousand games of Madden could ever dream of making better situational decisions than a lifer.

It's a game. You don't need a doctorate to understand it.

---

Bill O'Brien is a moron. Dusty Baker is not. AJ was certainly not, and he rarely bunted the runner over regardless of the situation and you know there was a ton of analytics and research going into every decision and the overall strategy.

You definitely don't need a PhD to understand baseball, but it's hard for me to take you seriously when you think you know more about what went into making that decision than the manager of the team. Also that you're using "thousands of games of Madden" as a comparison to the pressure of actually being on the field and having to make a decision in real time with no pause button.

A lot of people are trying to make this into a black-and-white thing, like it's just always correct to bunt the runner over in those situations. It's certainly not - so much of it depends on the personnel and their ability to execute that play and I'm sure that even under this regime there are a ton of analytics going into the decision-making.

Bottom line is that either way you look like a hero if it works I'd like a chump if it doesn't but you have to look at the big picture and not just one game and one outcome.

Assuming the guys at the plate are capable bunters, I would have probably move the runner over. That said, I don't know that Toro or Tucker are. Have either of them layed down a bunt at the MLB level? I haven't seen it. In fact I can't remember any one of the guys that were up in those situations last night ever bunting except for Altuve, and it's hard to take the bat out of his hands there. AJ is one of the smartest guys in baseball and rarely sac bunted, and like I said before it often didn't go well when he tried.

The most intelligent thing I have read in the last few pages is putting Greinke in to bunt. Now that would have been some managing.

k20dub said:

---

Ag_07 said:

---

I mean I guess the logic for not bunting is pretty simple.

Someone on this team has to be to get a GD base hit to win a ball game.

---

This. There's no question that the Astros have done extensive research and ran numbers on probabilities of bunting versus trying to get a hit. Some nights it's just not going to work out, like last night. It won't be the last time we don't bunt in extra innings.

---

Where would someone get such statistics for that research though? Especially in this unprecedented season with a new rule. You cant use bunting stats from 20 years ago to justify something today, it's a different game with different pitching methods and different swing mechanics. 20 years ago a bunt was probably less effective because many guys could spray the ball around, shifts weren't as prevalent etc etc etc.

This organization has algorithms on top algorithms on top algorithms

They're using stats they've created that we don't even know exist.

k20dub said:

---

I figured this article had been written already and indeed it has.

Bunt vs. Not Bunt

Quote:

---

In baseball, as in life, it seems tempting to do something, in this case to order a sac bunt attempt or an intentional walk. In some specific cases, maybe that makes sense. But overall, it seems like the best thing to do is to do nothing. The best thing to do is to let players play baseball. That's what we saw in the Minors, and that's likely what we'll see in the Majors.

---

---

Now compare those same scenarios to last night. We managed to have first and second and still lost....what's the percentages of runners on 2/3 tied with 1 out? And just taking aggregate numbers from however many seasons and any regular games and any random players batting that stuff goes out the window. These are the instances you have to have a gut and use it not just statistics.

My mlb app says lmj

cpsencik04 said:

---

k20dub said:

---

I figured this article had been written already and indeed it has.

Bunt vs. Not Bunt

Quote:

---

In baseball, as in life, it seems tempting to do something, in this case to order a sac bunt attempt or an intentional walk. In some specific cases, maybe that makes sense. But overall, it seems like the best thing to do is to do nothing. The best thing to do is to let players play baseball. That's what we saw in the Minors, and that's likely what we'll see in the Majors.

---

---

Now compare those same scenarios to last night. We managed to have first and second and still lost....what's the percentages of runners on 2/3 tied with 1 out? And just taking aggregate numbers from however many seasons and any regular games and any random players batting that stuff goes out the window. These are the instances you have to have a gut and use it not just statistics.

---

So you use analytics when it's not important and then when the game is on the line you go with your gut?

I mean if that's the case, then you can't $hi7 on Dusty for using his gut...and if that's not the case, then he still made the right call because he stuck with his overall strategy.

We had what, 10 chances to win last night by just getting a hit? The bunt debate is interesting, but we needed one stupid single to walk if off.

Not what I said.

Statistics can be used for your overall planning of the big idea. For example as a team we will not sac bunt, steal excessively or intentionally walk opponents.

But if it's the 9th inning and I have straw on first I'm stealing.

If it's 11th inning and I'm facing a .400 hitter with a runner on second and a .150 hitter on deck I'm walking that guy to pitch to the lesser hitter and hope for a double play

Or if it's the 12th inning and I have men on first and second with no outs I'm bunting them over and hoping the next guys can get it done or maybe pinch hit for one of those dudes.

Stats can build a main belief without hamstringing your in a certain moment

Agree, but a lot of dynamics change. Infield in, more gaps, long fly ball wins, etc.

I get playing odds and needing just one single. But I think we all know that single wasn't coming from toro.

Playoff baseball also interests me when it comes to stats and analytics. You aren't playing for the percentages as much then, you're playing for that one game. Not what will win most the time, but what will give me the best chance now. Slightly different, IMO.

amercer said:

---

We had what, 10 chances to win last night by just getting a hit? The bunt debate is interesting, but we needed one stupid single to walk if off.

---

I kind of disagree with this. With Bellinger and Betts in the outfield and the short LF, I think that a single to the outfield would have been a tough get to get someone from 2nd unles it was to a gap. I think that the need to move them up a station is paramount with that outfield configuration. That being said, we didn't do jacksheite either way and cannot have it happen the next time we are in that situation

Agree.

also factoring into the equation...the Dodgers' lefty reliever last night, Alexander, is a well-known sinkerball groundball specialist...and sure enough he got the GiDP in the 10th in a huge spot

cpsencik04 said:

---

Not what I said.

Statistics can be used for your overall planning of the big idea. For example as a team we will not sac bunt, steal excessively or intentionally walk opponents.

But if it's the 9th inning and I have straw on first I'm stealing.

If it's 11th inning and I'm facing a .400 hitter with a runner on second and a .150 hitter on deck I'm walking that guy to pitch to the lesser hitter and hope for a double play

Or if it's the 12th inning and I have men on first and second with no outs I'm bunting them over and hoping the next guys can get it done or maybe pinch hit for one of those dudes.

Stats can build a main belief without hamstringing your in a certain moment

---

OK - then I agree with that in general and I agree with your very obvious scenarios, but last night the scenarios weren't as obvious.

I think most people have a problem with:

1. Toro not bunting the runners over in the 11th.
2. Tucker not bunting the runner over in th 12th.

Neither of those guys have a sacrifice bunt in the majors. Toro has ZERO sac bunts ever and Tucker has laid down ONE in the minors since 2015.

Also neither have done much yet at the MLB level but they are both accomplished hitters. Toro had 19 HR and a bunch of XBH last year and we just had back to back hits. You can see where you don't want to ice your momentum by bunting with a ****7y bunter there (who is also a solid hitter0.

With Tucker you can't ask a guy who is supposed to be the next Ted Williams and hasn't bunted in like 5 years to lay one down there.

In both situations Dusty was going with his hitters' strengths.

Do we need to bunt more overall so that we have guys that can bunt in those situations? Maybe...but no one was crying about laying down like 10 sac bunts over the whole season in 2017, right?

At this point they don't need to be practicing anything but hitting the baseball and not having shltty JV level ABs.

Ag_07 said:

---

At this point they don't need to be practicing anything but hitting the baseball and not having shltty JV level ABs.

---

Yes.

If this could happen, we would not be splitting hairs about sac bunts.

Harry Dunne said:

---

Ag_07 said:

---

At this point they don't need to be practicing anything but hitting the baseball and not having shltty JV level ABs.

---

Yes.

If this could happen, we would not be splitting hairs about sac bunts.

---

Baseball today frustrates the **** out of me. If I'm a hitting coach I'm throwing all outside pitches and if my hitters aren't going with the pitch they're running laps. Look at Correa's single in extras, the whole damn right side of the field was open, just giving us a run.

I also can't wait for this offense to start hitting and be right back at the top in offensive categories. Come September I hope we can get a little series revenge with some high run games.

if I remember that chart correctly...Springer and Marwin were the biggest beneficiaries

Obviously I'm biased but I still think this is so incredibly unprofessional.

Think about what would happen would if someone said something like 'Well HRs are easy when you're juicing' when Robinson Cano hit a HR.

Yeah we cheated and people get busted for breaking rules but it's just something as a professional you just stay away from.

Ag_07 said:

---

Obviously I'm biased but I still think this is so incredibly unprofessional.

Think about what would happen would if someone said something like 'Well HRs are easy when you're juicing' when Robinson Cano hit a HR.

Yeah we cheated and people get busted for breaking rules but it's just something as a professional you just stay away from.

---

Wasn't his closer thrown out of a playoff game for scuffing the ball the year they won it all? But I'm sure St. Oral didn't know about it.

Betts struck out looking against Javier last night. Surely he made the same comment.

It's absolutely unprofessional.

Deluxe said:

---

Betts struck out looking against Javier last night. Surely he made the same comment.

---

But did the have a guy on second base when he struck out? Because apparently having a guy on second makes doing the exact same thing as the Astros much less atrocious.

Ag_07 said:

---

Obviously I'm biased but I still think this is so incredibly unprofessional.

Think about what would happen would if someone said something like 'Well HRs are easy when you're juicing' when Robinson Cano hit a HR.

Yeah we cheated and people get busted for breaking rules but it's just something as a professional you just stay away from.

---

I didn't realize that an announcer stating facts could be considered unprofessional.

Here's a good life lesson. Don't do bad things if you don't want people to say negative things about you.