There's always going to be columnists willing to put out controversial articles to get clicks.

One thing I've noted in spring training is the lack of depth in the minor leagues. Like, we have no higher level talent. I've seen next to nothing from hitters or fielders that are close to helping out in Houston any time soon. I'm sure most of this is attributable to trading guys for pennant help the past few years, but we got virtually nothing in the cupboard.

Of course, I'm a nobody and my opinion is worthless. So it was interesting to get this article from Keith Law this morning, basically saying the same thing...

Keith Law's Prospect Rankings:

The Astros' system has been gutted not just by trades, but by the inevitable results of trying to draft without scouts, which has filled the system with a lot of very low-ceiling college performers. The strength here now is the international class, including a slew of hard-throwing right-handers from Latin America.

The Top 10

1. Forrest Whitley, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 14)

From the Top 100: Whitley will pitch at 22 for all of 2020, yet it seems like there are already people within the industry questioning how good he's going to be. Some of it is unsurprising given how bad his 2019 season was; he got to Triple A and bombed, probably with help from the Happy Fun Ball, giving up four or more runs in more than half of his outings including relief outings designed to help him right the ship and allowing nine homers in 24 1/3 innings for a 12.21 ERA. The ball wasn't the only problem, as he was falling behind in counts too often in Triple A. So the Astros gave him a break, tried to work on his mechanics, and had him essentially rehab in the GCL and High A before he finished with a month in Double A (where he still walked too many guys) and six starts in the Arizona Fall League (where he finally had some success, with a 2.88 ERA and 9 walks in 25 innings). His stuff was as good as ever in October, 91-97 mph with a plus cutter and plus-plus changeup as well as two breaking balls that were more average, although on other days his curveball and slider have shown plus. It's an absurd collection of pitches, but he has to repeat his delivery better so he can throw more consistent strikes, especially early in the count. His upside is unchanged a No. 1 starter who can give you 200 innings and we'll see shortly if the mechanical tweaks he's made this winter get his delivery to where it needs to be.

2. Jose Urquidy, RHP

Formerly known as Jose Luis Hernandez, Urquidy is a depth starter/long reliever who's ready for the majors right now, getting swings and misses on his slider and curve, both grade 55 pitches, but with an ordinary four-seamer that gets hit hard and that prevents him from being more than a fourth starter in a best case scenario. He has an above-average changeup as well and throws a lot of strikes, so any pitching plan that gets him away from his fastball will probably make him more effective in any role.

3. Luis Garcia, RHP

Garcia's stuff climbed over the course of the year to the point where he was 93-97 mph as a starter with a 70 changeup and two average breaking balls, showing improved command and good feel to use all his pitches. He's only about six feet tall but has a thick build and looks like he could start; with this stuff and feel he'd be a mid-rotation arm.

4. Freudis Nova, SS

Nova signed in 2016 for $1.2 million and just made his full-season debut last year in Low A at age 19, although his approach wasn't quite ready for Midwest League pitching. He makes good contact when he puts the ball in play, and his bat plays up a little because he's a 60 runner. He's still developing at shortstop but has a 70 arm and the athleticism to stay there. There's huge power potential here, but he's a few years from getting to it.

5. Cristian Javier, RHP

Javier gets high swing and miss rates he had the second-best strikeout rate of any minor league starter in 2019 on a bucket of grade 50/55 pitches, with good deception and excellent feel for mixing and matching his various offerings. Scouts question whether better hitters will continue to miss at these rates given how much he works out of the zone, and those high walk rates limit him to a back-end starter role.

6. Jose Rivera, RHP

Rivera has been up to 100 and can sit at 96 as a starter with a hard slider and plus splitter. He's lanky with a loose, quick arm, with some effort in the delivery but enough of an arsenal to keep him as a starter for now. He signed at 19 in 2016, 'old' for a Dominican amateur player.

7. Hunter Brown, RHP

Drafted out of Division 2 Wayne State, Brown can hit 100 as a starter and flashes a plus slider and above-average curveball, along with a changeup that was much better in pro ball than it was in the spring, when he barely used it. He's built like a starter but hasn't shown that kind of command or control yet, either in school or in the minors. If that comes with time and pro coaching, he could be a number three or better.

8. Bryan Abreu, RHP

Abreu works with an above-average fastball and two plus breaking balls in the curve and slider; his curve's spin rate in the majors last year was just short of 3000 rpm, putting him near the top of the scale. Strikes have been a problem for him for most of his brief career and his changeup isn't that effective because it's too firm. You can't rule him out as a starter yet given his age and the number two upside, but the odds are higher than he's a dominant reliever who misses bats with his breaking stuff.

9. Abraham Toro, 3B

Toro has a knack for putting the bat on the ball and has average power, but he doesn't have a clear position, needing work to be adequate at third and lacking experience (or perhaps the agility) for second.

10. Tyler Ivey, RHP

Ivey has a violent delivery but misses bats with his solid-average fastball and above-average breaking ball, throwing more strikes than you'd expect but still most likely ticketed for the pen. He missed time in 2019 after he was suspended for having a foreign substance in his glove.

Keith Law's Prospect Rankings:

The next 10

11. Korey Lee, C

Lee was the Astros' first-round pick in 2019, a surprise selection of a player most teams didn't see as a day-one pick. He's apparently a great framer, and definitely has a plus arm, but his swing isn't going to produce enough line drives to project him as a regular; he played 64 games in short-season ball and had a 52.3 percent groundball rate there.

12. Colin Barber, OF

Barber was the Astros' fourth-rounder last year and the first high school player they chose, an above-average runner with a chance to stay in centerfield. He has a balanced swing for contact but would need a fair amount of work on his swing path to get to power.

13. Brandon Bielak, RHP

Bielak seems like a low-ceiling, high-floor guy in a system full of future relievers; he doesn't have a knockout pitch but his curve and slider are above-average and if he throws a few more strikes he'd be a good fourth or fifth starter.

14. Jairo Solis, RHP

Solis missed the year due to Tommy John surgery but was up to 100 prior to the injury with a solid delivery and hit 97 in the team's Dominican instructional league while he was rehabbing. He'd be an arm to watch if he comes back healthy, as he has more upside than almost any arm in the system.

15. Jordan Brewer, OF

Brewer was the Astros' third-round pick, a 70 runner who didn't play centerfield much at the University of Michigan but is more than fast and athletic enough to try it. He was a two-sport prospect in high school, also playing football, and has above-average raw power he doesn't get to in games right now.

16. Garrett Stubbs, C

Stubbs is really small for a catcher but has very good command of his small strike zone, rarely punching out and walking enough to have value as a backup; his frame may not permit him to be much more.

17. Shawn Dubin, RHP

Dubin was a 13th-rounder in 2018 out of Georgetown no, Georgetown College, in Kentucky, an NAIA school that has never produced a big leaguer and hadn't even had a player drafted since 1997. He signed for $1000 as a senior and has seen his velocity improve to where he was now 93-97 in the playoffs last year with a four-pitch mix that misses a lot of bats. He's no more than 5'11" and is listed at 154 pounds, so he has to fill out a lot to hold up as a starter, but he has the pure stuff to do it.

18. Luis Santana, IF

Santana was part of the return for J.D. Davis and struggled to elevate the ball in the New York-Penn League; he rarely strikes out and has some latent power but hits the ball on the ground or as low line drives too often.

19. Jeremy Pena, SS

The Astros' third-round pick in 2018, Pena can really play shortstop but there's no impact with the bat thanks to a severely grooved swing, and he's probably no more than a defensive replacement.

20. Nivaldo Rodriguez, RHP

Rodriguez was just added to their 40-man roster this winter after a solid year at both full-season A-ball stops, working with three average pitches and good control, with a fifth starter ceiling and a solid middle relief floor.

Keith Law's Prospect Rankings:

Others of note

Mexican lefthander Juan Pablo Lopez was 89-94 with a promising slider and has some projection left to his 6'4" frame, trending towards becoming a back-end starter prospect Right-hander Enoli Paredes is clearly a reliever with a max-effort delivery that has missed bats so far up through Double A, especially against right-handers. He was more effective in relief last year as well and this is probably the right time to move him there permanently Right-hander Angel Macuare works with a four-pitch mix with fringe-average stuff but nothing plus, with a promising delivery, but his command and control really lag behind his stuff right now and he has yet to pitch above short-season ball Right-hander Jojanse Torres is up to 100 mph but he's a rock-thrower without feel and with no third pitch The Astros' second-round pick last year, Grae Kessinger never strikes out but collapses his back leg in his swing, so he can't get to power, and I don't think he can stay at short. Eighteen-year-old Jairo Lopez was 92-95 in relief for Tri-City with a plus curveball and average changeup, but is really small to end up a starter.

2020 impact

It's time for Whitley to step up and join the rotation after what was supposed to be his debut season in 2019 went off the rails; he'll join Urquidy, who seems to already have a spot. Stubbs would be a quality backup catcher right now, maybe more if his small frame holds up. Toro should be on the bench as well, backing up at multiple spots.

The fallen

Their second-round pick in 2019, high school right-hander Jayson Schroeder, walked 37 guys in 25 innings last year even though the Astros demoted him twice to try to straighten things out.

Sleeper

Garcia has everything you'd want to see in a future starter except for size. Another year of proving it in Double A will put him squarely on the top 100.

Not sure if this is behind a paywall, so I may need to delete it.

https://theathletic.com/1627844/2020/02/28/keith-laws-prospect-rankings-houston-astros/

Thanks for posting all that Marvin. Lots of new names in our top 20. I like it. Is Whitley our only top 100 guy?

still hard to see Urquidy as a "prospect" given how much he pitched in meaningful games last year. But I guess it's all about innings pitched.

I'm excited to see so many pitchers on that list. Hopefully we will finally start having some home grown pitching talent that's actually worth a damn

We are gonna be good for a while. Soon though, we will have to either develop or break the bank for another top end SP...

Nuke LaLoosh said:

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We are gonna be good for a while. Soon though, we will have to either develop or break the bank for another top end SP...

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Yea. Since it's the offseason, it's interesting to think about pitching post 2021. LMJ, JV and Greinke will all be free agents. Sounds like Strom may only be around for another year or two. Osuna and Smith become free agents and Pressly could be too pending his vesting option.

I think our offense has been the most key aspect of our team as it relates to winning 100 games per season, but our timely/elite pitching has been our strength in critical playoff games. So it's interesting to think about how that will be maintained going forward.

Click comes from a regime that was creative in their ability to eat innings, so even in a worst case scenario I think we'll be alright. And we'll still have our high powered offense to get us to October.

But it will be interesting to watch JV, Greinke and LMJ the next few years specifically. JV seems very committed to his fitness and desire to pitch into his 40s (he's 37 this year). Assuming he has two good (but not CY caliber) seasons the next two years, I think the Astros would consider keeping him as long as he wants to stay on some short term, incremental deals. Hopefully he won't be looking to break the bank.

It will be interesting to monitor Greinke's effectiveness over the next two years. He obviously still knows how to pitch and get guys off balance, but I suspect his decline rate will be a little steeper than JV's. Then again, if he's an avg MLB pitcher in 2021 that can eat innings for us in 2022, maybe we extend him another year even if he's past the point of being a top of the rotation ace.

Our desire to keep LMJ will probably depend on his sturdiness the next couple years, but that's kind of a trap because if he pitches 200 innings in 2020 and 2021, he's going to get a very very large contract when he hits free agency. If he shows durability, wonder if we'll be willing to show him a Wheeler type of deal or let him walk. And how much will we be willing to pay him if he's on/off the IR the next two years?

Needless to say, the development of at least 2-3 of Whitley, Urquidy, Javier, Abreu, Perez, Sneed, Armenteros, Valdez, James, etc is critical. And like you pointed out, we'll probably need reinforcements post 2021 (or sooner) via external acquisition.

I guess the "everyone was doing it" argument works for the Red Sox? Aren't they repeat offenders?

CFTXAG10 said:

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Quote:

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"the crime the Sox are accused of -- peeking at catcher's signs in the replay room and relaying signs during games -- is nothing close to what Houston did and was common, if not universal, across baseball in recent years."

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Thats exactly what they did!

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The punishment that MLB gives the Red Sox such be AT MINIMUM as bad as the Astros got. Their apple watch crap was what caused the 2017 memo in the first place. And then they keep cheating??

I do hope the Red Sox get all defensive and say "everyone was doing it". Ok, then please tell everyone who else was doing it. We're all ears.....

It's going to be interesting to see how long it takes mlb to rule on the Red Sox. MLB wants to minimize the damage to the sport and has allowed the Astros to be the fall guy here. It was interesting to see a la times reporter saying the Astros got no advantage. It will be interesting if we start to see fluff pieces on other teams doing surveillance to minimize the damage to the sport once the reports of multiple reports of teams using surveillance become more prevalent. The league will have gotten their point across by making the Astros the bad guy so that no other team would want to go through that.

safety guy said:

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It's going to be interesting to see how long it takes mlb to rule on the Red Sox. MLB wants to minimize the damage to the sport and has allowed the Astros to be the fall guy here. It was interesting to see a la times reporter saying the Astros got no advantage. It will be interesting if we start to see fluff pieces on other teams doing surveillance to minimize the damage to the sport once the reports of multiple reports of teams using surveillance become more prevalent. The league will have gotten their point across by making the Astros the bad guy so that no other team would want to go through that.

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The hypocrisy will be even more fun to see. You already have other teams cheering for Astros on their team now (Marisnick, DK, Kemp, etc.). And they are booing Astros players that were no where near the 2017 Astros roster.

And how will the Dodger fans and players react to Betts and Price when the Red Sox report is released? Are their players (looking at you Bellinger) going to put their smug little face into the camera and criticize their new teammates?

Texaggie7nine said:

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I do think the Astros probably were the only team successfully getting info to hitters with no one on base. At least for the most part. And I have no doubt any other team would have done the same if they thought they could get away with it.

But that is not the argument everyone in media and social media are making. They are drawing the line at "using technology" to steal signs, which is what many teams were doing. They just refuse to believe that.

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I see this the same way. The use of technology to spy on signs and to decipher them is something everyone was doing. The only difference I have seen is the Astros finding a way to get it direct to the batter rather than relayed via a runner at second.

And I'm not sure other teams weren't doing it as well via other means. I vaguely remember mentions of whistles from dugouts, etc.

I also look forward to the Dodgers bending over backwards to support Mookie while trying to trash Altuve.

I think one of the big questions is is a spreadsheet with algorithms considered illegal technology.

Because I'm pretty sure that the Astros were the only team using something like that but they weren't the only team using cameras and live feeds.

To me that's where the big difference is.

Ag_07 said:

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I think one of the big questions is is a spreadsheet with algorithms considered illegal technology.

Because I'm pretty sure that the Astros were the only team using something like that but they weren't the only team using cameras and live feeds.

To me that's where the big difference is.

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I missed all the spreadsheet stuff. How were we using the spreadsheet? Were we using it in game to relay information?

Quote:

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I think one of the big questions is is a spreadsheet with algorithms considered illegal technology

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No way they are the only team using spreedsheets and algorithms. If it was illegal then no matter you are tracking would be considered illegal tech

This is the problem with the whole mess. MLB did mot say this part was legal and this was not in the report. The lumped it all together and that has blurred the lines. IMO that was the intention. Keep it blurry and just yell "Cheaters". People would be happy something was done and MLB would have a fall guy and could move on.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1zqKVlnqevZJB

In Jupiter today for our spring training finale this year. Beautiful day at the park.

There is one heckler sitting on the Marlins side that is wearing the Astros out. He yells during the windup. And he's a Mets fan. Go figure.

Deluxe said:

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Going 70 in a 60 mph zone. Reasonable. Everyone else does it.

Going 80 in a 60 mph zone. THE WORST THING EVER. BAN DRIVER.

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I wouldn't even go that far. 80 in a 60 is a more serious offense than 70 in a 60. But the Astros commited the same offense - using technology to steal signs. It's like, two brothers each grab $10 that their dad left lying on the table. One brother spends it. The other brother invests it in a startup business, turns it into $100, and makes the first brother mad as hell. Same crime, but one was brother was much more intelligent.

AggieLit said:

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Deluxe said:

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Going 70 in a 60 mph zone. Reasonable. Everyone else does it.

Going 80 in a 60 mph zone. THE WORST THING EVER. BAN DRIVER.

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I wouldn't even go that far. 80 in a 60 is a more serious offense than 70 in a 60. But the Astros commited the same offense - using technology to steal signs. It's like, two brothers each grab $10 that their dad left lying on the table. One brother spends it. The other brother invests it in a startup business, turns it into $100, and makes the first brother mad as hell. Same crime, but one was brother was much more intelligent.

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Nah. I say it's like a guy getting a DWI claiming it's not the same as the other guy since he was drinking beer instead of whiskey.

aTm2004 said:

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AggieLit said:

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Deluxe said:

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Going 70 in a 60 mph zone. Reasonable. Everyone else does it.

Going 80 in a 60 mph zone. THE WORST THING EVER. BAN DRIVER.

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I wouldn't even go that far. 80 in a 60 is a more serious offense than 70 in a 60. But the Astros commited the same offense - using technology to steal signs. It's like, two brothers each grab $10 that their dad left lying on the table. One brother spends it. The other brother invests it in a startup business, turns it into $100, and makes the first brother mad as hell. Same crime, but one was brother was much more intelligent.

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Nah. I say it's like a guy getting a DWI claiming it's not the same as the other guy since he was drinking beer instead of whiskey.

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My point was that it's the same offense, we were just more intelligent with what we did with it.