*****Official 2019/2020 Houston Astros offseason thread*****
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Last: 3 yr ago by BMX Bandit
Yep. Looks real solid. We can't expect one guy to replace Cole. But we can... replace him in the aggregate.
LMJ will be part of that aggregate.
LMJ will be part of that aggregate.
It's funny, but he may be almost good enough to just replace him if he stays healthy.Deluxe said:
Yep. Looks real solid. We can't expect one guy to replace Cole. But we can... replace him in the aggregate.
LMJ will be part of that aggregate.
In 2017 LMJ's first 13 starts (before the first of many injuries that year)
13 games
76.2 IP (Just under 6 IP per)
6-1 W-L
2.58 ERA
2.95 FIP
2.74 xFIP
1.06 WHIP
28.6 K%
If he could have hit like Alvarez, I wouldn't care if he was 300lbs.MelvinUdall said:
I have no respect for Tyler White, access to nutritionist and trainers and yet he couldn't take baseball serious enough to give the appearance that he was in any semblance of shape.
7nine
Farmer1906 said:It's funny, but he may be almost good enough to just replace him if he stays healthy.Deluxe said:
Yep. Looks real solid. We can't expect one guy to replace Cole. But we can... replace him in the aggregate.
LMJ will be part of that aggregate.
In 2017 LMJ's first 13 starts (before the first of many injuries that year)
13 games
76.2 IP (Just under 6 IP per)
6-1 W-L
2.58 ERA
2.95 FIP
2.74 xFIP
1.06 WHIP
28.6 K%
Low key I agree. Fully healthy and durable LMJ could be an untapped bountiful resource like the California gold rush in the 1800s. Just don't want to count any chickens yet.
Predicting Astros 2020 Opening Day Roster
A few interesting spots.
A few interesting spots.
Quote:
Catcher
Locks: Garrett Stubbs
Possibilities: Free agent/trade
Both of the Astros' primary catchers from the 2019 season -- Robinson Chirinos and Martn Maldonado -- are free agents, leaving Stubbs as the only backstop on the 40-man roster. Catching will be their biggest priority heading into the offseason. Chirinos posted a .790 OPS last season, and he hit two homers in the World Series, while handling Justin Verlander behind the plate. His return would be a popular move. Maybe they'd be up for a reunion with Jason Castro, who had a .767 OPS last year with the Twins.
Quote:
Outfield
Locks: Michael Brantley, George Springer, Kyle Tucker
Possibilities: Jake Marisnick, Myles Straw
The Astros could trade Josh Reddick to make way for Tucker to play full time. There's a small chance Marisnick might be non-tendered. Straw is the fastest player on the team and could be ready to assume a full-time backup outfielder role.
Quote:
Starting pitchers
Locks: Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr.
Possibilities: Jose Urquidy, free agent/trade
Top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley will get a shot to win a spot in the rotation coming off a disappointing 2019 season in which he was demoted to Class A, though he finished with a 2.88 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 25 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Urquidy's strong showing last year -- capped by his terrific start in Game 4 of the World Series -- puts him at the forefront of the rotation race. Here's guessing the Astros will sign a veteran to join the rotation while Whitley starts the year in Triple-A. The Astros could make a run at a starter like free agents Zack Wheeler or Jake Odorizzi.
Quote:
Relievers
Locks: Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Josh James, Brad Peacock and Bryan Abreu
Possibilities: Chris Devenski, free agent/trade
The only relief pitchers guaranteed to return are Pressly -- whose second half was derailed by right knee surgery -- Osuna, James, Peacock and Abreu. Will Harris is a free agent, along with Joe Smith, Hctor Rondn and Collin McHugh. Joe Biagini and Devenski are non-tender candidates. Houston will need to add some veteran bullpen help, which could mean re-signing Smith and Harris, and perhaps even adding a lefty. The Astros didn't have a lefty on their pitching staff in the playoffs. Free agent left-hander Will Smith, an All-Star this year, would fit very nicely into Houston's bullpen.
Its extremely unlikely he performs at a Cy Young level for a full year, but the potential is there. It's in the realm of realistic possibilities. I just want him to pitch 150 innings effectively in and be healthy for the postseason.Deluxe said:Farmer1906 said:It's funny, but he may be almost good enough to just replace him if he stays healthy.Deluxe said:
Yep. Looks real solid. We can't expect one guy to replace Cole. But we can... replace him in the aggregate.
LMJ will be part of that aggregate.
In 2017 LMJ's first 13 starts (before the first of many injuries that year)
13 games
76.2 IP (Just under 6 IP per)
6-1 W-L
2.58 ERA
2.95 FIP
2.74 xFIP
1.06 WHIP
28.6 K%
Low key I agree. Just don't want to count any chickens yet.
Quote:
Its extremely unlikely he performs at a Cy Young level for a full year, but the potential is there. It's in the realm of realistic possibilities. I just want him to pitch 150 innings effectively in and be healthy for the postseason.
This
Do pitchers coming back form TJ typically have an innings limit?
Deluxe said:
Yep. Looks real solid. We can't expect one guy to replace Cole. But we can... replace him in the aggregate.
LMJ will be part of that aggregate.
To be honest, I'm starting to think that I'd rather have 4 quality pitchers than 2 elite. I think 2019 playoffs showed that you give yourself a better chance this way. Plus, an injury to one of your elite pitchers and you're done.
No matter what, you gotta score runs.
Let's check out a few big names that had it recently.Ag_07 said:Quote:
Its extremely unlikely he performs at a Cy Young level for a full year, but the potential is there. It's in the realm of realistic possibilities. I just want him to pitch 150 innings effectively in and be healthy for the postseason.
This
Do pitchers coming back form TJ typically have an innings limit?
Will Smith - March 2017
Returned May 2018 (late start to 2018)
Pitched in 54 games; 53 IP in a shortened season for him. No appearances no restrictions.
Yu Darvish - March 2015
Returned May 2018 (late start to 2018)
Pitched in 17 games; 100.1 IP. Only had 3 starts before some neck/shoulder tightness had him back on the DL. Came back in July and pitched regularly (90 or more pitches in all but 1 start)
Lance Lynn - Nov 2015
Returned April 2017
Pitched in 33 games; 186.1 IP. Had 15 starts at 100 or more pitches.
Looks like Lance should be a full go on his return. However, we may keep him on a pitch count or innings count because of his injury history in general, but because he's coming back from TJ.
I wouldn't hate getting Jason Castro cheap and platooning him with a RH. He hit very well when he was platooning with Garver last season - .851 OPS bs RHP.
Great framer, good defender, I think he was well-liked when he was here. Didn't hear much about chemistry when we were losing 100 games a year but he seems like a good dude. Just a putrid hitter against left-handers though.
Great framer, good defender, I think he was well-liked when he was here. Didn't hear much about chemistry when we were losing 100 games a year but he seems like a good dude. Just a putrid hitter against left-handers though.
I sort of alluded to this in my TLDR post a few pages ago, but I think Greinke + LMJ 2020 has the potential to be just as good (if not better) than Cole + Miley 2019.
Greinke's style of pitching was naturally going to take a little longer to sync up with our brain trust, but now they have a whole offseason/spring to work together. I actually think Greinke has the potential to outperform his 2019 season, in which he was the 9th best pitcher in baseball by fWAR.
And as has already been discussed, LMJ has the potential to be elite if he can maintain health/durability. If we can get creative and throw in a good #4 behind our top three, we have the potential to have a better rotation in 2020 top to bottom then we did in 2019. And that's not even factoring in any potential upside from Urquidy, Abreu, Whitley, etc.
Greinke's style of pitching was naturally going to take a little longer to sync up with our brain trust, but now they have a whole offseason/spring to work together. I actually think Greinke has the potential to outperform his 2019 season, in which he was the 9th best pitcher in baseball by fWAR.
And as has already been discussed, LMJ has the potential to be elite if he can maintain health/durability. If we can get creative and throw in a good #4 behind our top three, we have the potential to have a better rotation in 2020 top to bottom then we did in 2019. And that's not even factoring in any potential upside from Urquidy, Abreu, Whitley, etc.
This is where I swung and missed last year. I was so sure between McHugh, Peacock, Whiteley, Martin, James, & Bukauskas we could fill out the #4 and #5 spots.Deluxe said:
I sort of alluded to this in my TLDR post a few pages ago, but I think Greinke + LMJ 2020 has the potential to be just as good (if not better) than Cole + Miley 2019.
Greinke's style of pitching was naturally going to take a little longer to sync up with our brain trust, but now they have a whole offseason/spring to work together. I actually think Greinke has the potential to outperform his 2019 season, in which he was the 9th best pitcher in baseball by fWAR.
And as has already been discussed, LMJ has the potential to be elite if he can maintain health/durability. If we can get creative and throw in a good #4 behind our top three, we have the potential to have a better rotation in 2020 top to bottom then we did in 2019. And that's not even factoring in any potential upside from Urquidy, Abreu, Whitley, etc.
We really need Urquidy or someone to step up and be a stable arm for most of the year.
I'm totally in the same boat. I thought for sure we'd get some upside from McHugh, Peacock or 1+ of our young arms but it never came. Hopefully 2020 will be different.
The LMJ tweets have been the best part of the thread so far
so Bregman will (at worst) nab his second top 5 MVP finish of his career (in 4 seasons)mathguy86 said:
BBWAA short lists are out.
MVP- Bregman, Semiem, Trout.
CY- Cole, JV, CFM
ROY- Alvarez, 2 chumps.
Manager - Hinch didn't make the cut. Ironic isn't it.
Just how screwed is Boston?
Looking at 2021 they have the following guys making the following
Christian Vazquez - 6.25
Dustin Pedroia - 12.13
Xander Bogaerts - 20.00
David Price - 32.00
Chris Sale - 30.00
Nathan Eovaldi - 17.00
JD Martinez - 19.35 (player option, he already opted-in for 2020)
That is ~137 M locked into 7 guys.If they want to keep Betts then it'll likely be another 35 M or more. Add in the arb guys and they're going to crush the luxury tax. This is a team that finished 3rd in their division. I don't expect these guys to age well at all.
Looking at 2021 they have the following guys making the following
Christian Vazquez - 6.25
Dustin Pedroia - 12.13
Xander Bogaerts - 20.00
David Price - 32.00
Chris Sale - 30.00
Nathan Eovaldi - 17.00
JD Martinez - 19.35 (player option, he already opted-in for 2020)
That is ~137 M locked into 7 guys.If they want to keep Betts then it'll likely be another 35 M or more. Add in the arb guys and they're going to crush the luxury tax. This is a team that finished 3rd in their division. I don't expect these guys to age well at all.
Yep
You know they were praying JD would opt out of his deal.
You know they were praying JD would opt out of his deal.
Will be interesting to see if Chaim Bloom can unload some of that money.Farmer1906 said:
Just how screwed is Boston?
Looking at 2021 they have the following guys making the following
Christian Vazquez - 6.25
Dustin Pedroia - 12.13
Xander Bogaerts - 20.00
David Price - 32.00
Chris Sale - 30.00
Nathan Eovaldi - 17.00
JD Martinez - 19.35 (player option, he already opted-in for 2020)
That is ~137 M locked into 7 guys.If they want to keep Betts then it'll likely be another 35 M or more. Add in the arb guys and they're going to crush the luxury tax. This is a team that finished 3rd in their division. I don't expect these guys to age well at all.
If I'm him, my first call is to Jon Daniels and tell him how great his team looks next year with David Price added to his rotation with Lynn and Minor. He just might take the bait.
Some more hardware finalists.mathguy86 said:
BBWAA short lists are out.
MVP- Bregman, Semiem, Trout.
CY- Cole, JV, CFM
ROY- Alvarez, 2 chumps.
Manager - Hinch didn't make the cut. Ironic isn't it.
A few thoughts.Quote:
American League Silver Slugger Award Watch List
1B Carlos Santana (CLE), Yuli Gurriel (HOU), Jos Abreu (CWS), Matt Olson (OAK)
2B Jose Altuve (HOU), DJ LeMahieu (NYY), Whit Merrifield (KC), Jonathan Villar (BAL)
3B Alex Bregman (HOU), Rafael Devers (BOS), Hunter Dozier (KC), Yon Moncada (CWS), Matt Chapman (OAK)
SS Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Francisco Lindor (CLE), Gleyber Torres (NYY), Jorge Polanco (MIN), Marcus Semien (OAK), Tim Anderson (CWS)
OF Mike Trout (LAA), Mookie Betts (BOS), Michael Brantley (HOU), George Springer (HOU), Max Kepler (MIN), Trey Mancini (BAL), Austin Meadows (TB)
C Gary Snchez (NYY), Mitch Garver (MIN), Omar Narvez (SEA), Christian Vzquez (BOS), James McCann (CWS), Roberto Prez (CLE)
DH J.D. Martinez (BOS), Nelson Cruz (MIN), Shohei Ohtani (LAA), Jorge Soler (KC), Edwin Encarnacin (NYY)
Why is DJ & Gleyber considered 2B & SS?
DJ played 75 games at second, 52 at third, & 40 at first. Gleyber played 77 at SS & 65 at second. Sure they played slightly there more than any single other position, but DJ was the 1B & Glayber was the 2B for that team when everyone eas healthy.
I know he didn't play the entire year, but Yordan should have been considered at DH. After all, he played that position for 77 games which is more than DJ at 2B & the same as Gleyber at SS.
My votes would be Santana, DJ, Bregman, Bogarts, Garver, Trout, Springer, Betts, & Cruz.
I'd be watching closely and would call whoever misses out on Cole and try and deal them Sale or Price
fair to wonder which teams will have the budget to give Mookie $35 MM per season for 6 or 7 years.
maybe the Mets or White Sox or Rangers.
the other medium-to-large spenders are just about maxed out on $30 MM players
maybe the Mets or White Sox or Rangers.
the other medium-to-large spenders are just about maxed out on $30 MM players
I doubt they can find someone desperate enough unless they eat a bunch of the money. (See Greinke & Verlander deals)Ag_07 said:
I'd be watching closely and would call whoever misses out on Cole and try and deal them Sale or Price
Sale for ages 31 through 34 - 4 years, 117.5 M. He just had the highest ERA of his career and lowest IP total since his rookie year. This is the 2nd year in a row he's failed to reach 160 IP.
Price for ages 34 thru 36 - 3 years, 96 M. He just had his highest ERA since his rookie year and only 107 IP. He's 2 years removed from a previous injury as well (only 74.2 IP in '17). His fastball velo has steadily been dropping over the last several years. 96.5('12), 95.0 ('15), 94.1 ('17), 93.1 ('18), & 92.4 ('19)
Cubs?W said:
fair to wonder which teams will have the budget to give Mookie $35 MM per season for 6 or 7 years.
maybe the Mets or White Sox or Rangers.
the other medium-to-large spenders are just about maxed out on $30 MM players
I feel like we really missed LMJ this year. He was a major spark-plug for that 2017 squad, IMO. Can't wait to see him back in Astros gear.
Do you have to have qualifying PAs for the year to be considered for the award?
the Cubs could be in the mix for Mookie.
would probably mean letting one of Rizzo, Bryant, or Baez go when they reach free agency.
and the Cubs still have the awful Jason Heyward contract on their books thru 2023. Paying him about $24 MM per season
would probably mean letting one of Rizzo, Bryant, or Baez go when they reach free agency.
and the Cubs still have the awful Jason Heyward contract on their books thru 2023. Paying him about $24 MM per season
Rizzo is never going to cost THAT much. They have money as a franchise and have a lot coming off there books.W said:
the Cubs could be in the mix for Mookie.
would probably mean letting one of Rizzo, Bryant, or Baez go when they reach free agency.
and the Cubs still have the awful Jason Heyward contract on their books thru 2023. Paying him about $24 MM per season
That Heyward contract is unbelievably bad.
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