*****Official 2019/2020 Houston Astros offseason thread*****

1,025,889 Views | 9892 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by BMX Bandit
Deluxe
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k20dub said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/houston-astros-cheating-scheme-dark-arts-codebreaker-11581112994

Anyone have a subscription?


It basically just spotlights Manfred's attempt to direct link Luhnow to the illegal sign stealing. Doesn't seem to be any "aha!" info though.

An Astros employee supposedly presented Luhnow with an excel model to decode signs. Apparently there was enough plausible deniability for Luhnow to say he didn't know the model would be used in games.
. . .
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Hinch's interview

MAROON
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Deluxe said:

k20dub said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/houston-astros-cheating-scheme-dark-arts-codebreaker-11581112994

Anyone have a subscription?


It basically just spotlights Manfred's attempt to direct link Luhnow to the illegal sign stealing. Doesn't seem to be any "aha!" info though.

An Astros employee supposedly presented Luhnow with an excel model to decode signs. Apparently there was enough plausible deniability for Luhnow to say he didn't know the model would be used in games.


All I can say after reading that is that our analytics guys are smart as frick, and I hope Click has them cranking out data more than ever - legally
mazag08
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MLB all in now on "poor AJ, the players clearly didn't respect him, he deserves another chance".

**** AJ. His lack of a spine in standing up for what's right is why the sign stealing wasn't squashed earlier. Regardless of if everyone did or not, AJ saying he feels bad doesn't mean he's off the hook. He's the one person, who knew exactly what was going on and the rate at which it happened, who could have ended it with one word.
irish pete ag06
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mwm said:

No. Please no. Puig is a cancer and has been since he entered the league.
Bro... it's obvious he's being brought on to make pitchers think twice about throwing at us.
irish pete ag06
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Please please please hammer the Red Sox at least somewhat equivalently to ours so that the Boston media can continue to bring fire on the Yankees. Those *******s need to be investigated. Dodgers too.
the last of the bohemians
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Puig would not be happy with platoon, not seeing that happen.
the last of the bohemians
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Red Sox are probably 3rd largest following after Yanks and Cubs, so that's a lot of fireworks if mlb goes after Red Sox like they did the Astros.
That makes me worried it won't be equivalent.
Ag_07
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AJ was in really tough spot. If he tells the guys to stop it and puts his foot down he loses the clubhouse. I get why he didn't speak up and put a stop to it himself.

However, he should've reported up to Luhnow and had him handle it. All he has to tell him it's going on and he doesn't like it and needs his help to end it without going against the players. Then at that point if it's taken care of he can say 'Hey I told him it needed to stop'

That's what I fault him for. Can't just let it go on without letting your boss know what's up.
agdaddy04
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Over the years I think we all know how you feel about AJ.
. . .
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Quote:

On Sept. 22, 2016, an intern in the Houston Astros organization showed general manager Jeff Luhnow a PowerPoint presentation that featured the latest creation by the team's high-tech front office: an Excel-based application programmed with an algorithm that could decode the opposing catchers' signs. It was called "Codebreaker."

This was the beginning of what has turned into one of the biggest scandals in Major League Baseball history. Throughout the 2017 season and for part of 2018, Astros baseball operations employees and video room staffers used Codebreaker to illegally steal signs, which were then relayed to batters in real time. Another Astros employee referred to the system as the "dark arts."

This previously undisclosed information about the origins and nature of the Astros' cheating comes from both a letter MLB commissioner Rob Manfred sent to Luhnow on Jan. 2 that outlined the findings of a league investigation, as well as interviews with several people familiar with the matter.

Eleven days after Manfred's letter, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, MLB announced that it had suspended Luhnow, as well as field manager A.J. Hinch, for the entire 2020 season. Hours later, the Astros fired both Luhnow and Hinch.

The existence of Codebreaker shows that it was the Astros front office that laid the groundwork for the team's electronic sign-stealing schemes.

During MLB's probe, Luhnow maintained that he had no knowledge of any of the Astros' misconduct. However, Manfred wrote in his letter that "there is more than sufficient evidence to support a conclusion that you knewand overwhelming evidence that you should have knownthat the Astros maintained a sign-stealing program that violated MLB's rules."

But while the league collected evidence that showed Luhnow was aware of Codebreaker's existence and capabilities, it couldn't prove that he knew how it was used. In response to Manfred's letter, Luhnow presented investigators with a binder with more than 170 pages that cast at least some doubt on the contents of the initial letter, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

These people described the situation as a "he said-he said" between Luhnow and Tom Koch-Weser, the team's director of advance information, who sent two emails to Luhnow in 2017 that referenced "the system" and "our dark arts, sign-stealing department."

Luhnow opened the emails, but told investigators he did not read to the bottom of them.

Complicating matters further, Koch-Weser's responsibilities were reduced following the 2019 season, but before allegations of the Astros' cheating became public in a November story in The Athletic.

MLB couldn't decipher whose account was truthful. In his final findings, Manfred said that the investigation revealed that "Luhnow neither devised nor actively directed the efforts of the replay review room staff to decode signs in 2017 or 2018."

Luhnow declined to comment through a spokesman. In a statement released last month, Luhnow said, "As the commissioner set out in his statement, I did not personally direct, oversee or engage in any misconduct." The Astros did not provide comment on behalf of their employees. Koch-Weser did not respond to requests for comment.

The way Codebreaker worked was simple: Somebody would watch an in-game live feed and log the catcher's signs into the spreadsheet, as well as the type of pitch that was actually thrown. With that information, Codebreaker determined how the signs corresponded with different pitches. Once decoded, that information would be communicated through intermediaries to a baserunner, who would relay them to the hitter.

Starting around June 2017, the system was embellished by Astros players. They started watching a live game feed on a monitor near the dugout and then would bang on a trash can to communicate the coming pitch to the batter. The "banging scheme" lasted through the 2017 World Series, which the Astros won over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Manfred said Luhnow was unaware of the banging scheme.

But everything started with Codebreaker, and the use of it to steal signs continued into 2018not just at home, but also on the road.

Luhnow acknowledged to investigators that he recalled the intern's PowerPoint slide about Codebreaker and even asked questions about how it worked. He said that he was under the impression that it would be used to legally decipher signs from previous game footagenot live in games.

The intern, Derek Vigoa, currently the Astros' senior manager for team operations, told investigators that he presumed Luhnow knew it would be used in games because that was "where the value would be," according to the letter. But he said he didn't recall whether he explicitly told Luhnow that Codebreaker would be used during games.

Vigoa's presentation wasn't the only time Astros employees say Luhnow was informed about Codebreaker. Koch-Weser, the Astros' director of advance information, said he discussed Codebreaker with Luhnow in one to three meetings after the 2016 season.

Koch-Weser told MLB that Luhnow would "giggle" at the title and appeared "excited" about it. Koch-Weser also said that Luhnow sometimes entered the Astros' video room during road games and made comments such as, "You guys Codebreaking?"

Luhnow denied Koch-Weser's accounts.

Other Astros employees told MLB's investigators that they believed Luhnow knew about Codebreaker, but they provided no definitive proof. Matt Hogan, now the Astros' manager of pro scouting analysis, told investigators there was no effort to hide the use of Codebreaker in front of Luhnow when he visited the video room. In fact, he told them, "it would have been something to show we were working and get validation of our work." Luhnow denied seeing evidence of sign-stealing during those visits.

In October 2018, Luhnow met with Koch-Weser to discuss a potential contract extension. In preparation, Koch-Weser outlined his arguments for an extension in a Slack post that included the term "dark arts." He wrote, in part: "Lastly, I know the secrets that made us a championship team, some of which he[']d definitely feel a lot safer if they were kept in-house." Koch-Weser told MLB investigators that during his meeting with Luhnow, he used either the term "dark arts" or "codebreaking" to tout his efforts. Luhnow denied that Koch-Weser referenced either of those things.

Koch-Weser also used the term "dark arts" in the Astros' Advanced Scouting Department's 2019 budget Excel spreadsheet. Luhnow acknowledged that he reviewed the document but denied reading the tab "dark arts" was written in and denied that any discussion of "dark arts" took place during the budget meeting.

In Manfred's public report last month, he said that Luhnow received at least two emails that mentioned the Astros' sign-stealing. His letter to Luhnow expanded upon the content of those emails.

One was sent by Koch-Weser on May 24, 2017, and was titled "Road Notes (April-May)." The five-page email included six underlined topic headings, with the fifth one called, "The System"a reference to what Koch-Weser described to investigators as "all kind of covert operations," including sign-stealing. Luhnow told investigators he didn't read the full email because of its length, and that he was unfamiliar with the term "the system." Two people familiar with the matter said it was generally known in the Astros front office that Luhnow expected his staff to put pertinent information in the first page of any email.

Luhnow responded to that email a day later: "These are great, thanks." He wrote another email about three hours later. "How much of this stuff do you think [Hinch] is aware of?" Luhnow asked Koch-Weser.

On Aug. 26, 2017, in another "road notes," Koch-Weser wrote: "The system: our dark arts, sign-stealing department has been less productive in the second half as the league has become aware of our reputation and now most clubs change their signs a dozen times per game." He added that struggling teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics "seem not to care as much."

Luhnow responded two weeks later.

"Tom, this type of write up is very helpful," he wrote. "Seems like our baserunning is still pathetic. What the hell happened to our pitching this series? I mean that was historically bad"

Nonetheless, Luhnow told investigators that he did not read the full email because of its length and that if he had, he would have followed up because the reference to "dark arts" sounded "nefarious" and "sinister."

The evidence led Manfred to believe that Luhnow knew about that element of the Astros' sign-stealing. In the last paragraph of Manfred's letter, he wrote: "I intend to hold you accountable for the egregious rules violations that took place under your supervision"

Luhnow was suspended by MLB for a year on Jan. 13. He was fired by the Astros hours later.
bobinator
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This was the part I'd heard about that wasn't public yet. I didn't know what kind of program it was but heard there was some kind of machine learning involved.
Nuke LaLoosh
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1) this article states that the Astros used the trash can bang through the World Series, which by all other accounts is false

2) I would honestly be dumbfounded at this point if other teams didn't have similar algorithms in place at this point.
agproducer
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Regardless of the findings, I still love this team.

I'm sure other organizations are doing similar things.

#codebreakingfortheH
bobinator
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Posted this earlier on Twitter but I want a shirt with an orange rainbow trash can
3B Paul 97
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Things kick off next week. Just ready for the guys to hit the field.
AggieLit
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My takeaways from the article are:

1. We stole signs on the road as well as at home.
2. Luhnow obviously knew all about it and looks ridiculous denying he did.

I really hate that this happened. 2017 was the greatest sports experience of my adult life.
redline248
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I read that article and laughed about the Bluejays and As.
redline248
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But it also bothers me that they say we used the trash can in the world series.

1) no one else ever specifically stated that, to my knowledge, and I just assumed we were using the relay by runners on base

2) how the hell could anyone hear a trash can bang inside the stadium during those games?
Mr.Bond
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redline248 said:

But it also bothers me that they say we used the trash can in the world series.

1) no one else ever specifically stated that, to my knowledge, and I just assumed we were using the relay by runners on base

2) how the hell could anyone hear a trash can bang inside the stadium during those games?



100 percent not possible. Was on row 8 and couldn't hear my wife yelling at me
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.




Thinice
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mwm said:

No. Please no. Puig is a cancer and has been since he entered the league.


Depends on how many bench-clearing brawls we might get into, dude can mic it up.
BullSprig07
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Mr.Bond said:

redline248 said:


2) how the hell could anyone hear a trash can bang inside the stadium during those games?



100 percent not possible. Was on row 8 and couldn't hear my wife yelling at me

I was at game 5 and I agree, trash cans wouldn't work. That doesn't mean they didn't find another way, and I'm afraid we don't really want to know the answer to how.
bearkatag15
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redline248
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You know you have a bunch of nerds at work when you call something Dark Arts and no one makes fun of your ass
. . .
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Quote:

Morton on fallout from #Astros scandal on '17 championship: "I think the perception of that World Series was negatively affected, at minimum.''

Morton on #Astros sign-stealing scheme: "Personally, I regret not doing more to stop it. I don't know what that would have entailed. I think the actions would have been somewhat extreme to stop it.''

Charlie Morton on former #Astros manager AJ Hinch and whether or not Hinch should manage again after serving his one-year suspension: "I liked playing for AJ a lot. I hope so. I hope there's a spot in the game for him because I believe he deserves it."

Morton said he doesn't plan on having a speech to his new teammates but said he's open to talk to any teammates that might have a concern or something to say.
bearkatag15
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redline248
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I love the Astros and I'm totally not afraid to tell anyone to "get f-cked" if they suggest the 2017 WS win isn't legitimate...

...but...

Guys like Charlie and AJ saying they regret not doing more to stop it is super hollow bc you know they don't regret the rings. Same with Fiers, that pos
the last of the bohemians
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The Astros org has already said several other teams had systems.
All the other teams running their mouth should be more appreciative of the Astros not breaking the code and ratting to the media.
W
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redline248 said:

I love the Astros and I'm totally not afraid to tell anyone to "get f-cked" if they suggest the 2017 WS win isn't legitimate...

...but...

Guys like Charlie and AJ saying they regret not doing more to stop it is super hollow bc you know they don't regret the rings. Same with Fiers, that pos
yep, and those guys had a great time during the parade too
spadilly
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Farmer1906
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In case you forgot how good we are.


Who's the best OD starter? We rank all 30

Quote:

3) Astros: Justin Verlander, RHP. With Cole on the Yankees, Verlander is now obviously the best pitcher in Houston, though he's been the Opening Day starter since he arrived.


Ranking MLB's closers right now, 1 to 30

Quote:

3) Astros -- Roberto Osuna, RHP: He was peak Osuna all year last year, leading the American League in both saves and games finished. And with Dusty Baker now in charge, he has a manager who won't be afraid to use him as often as possible.


Here's how AL West rotations stack up


Quote:

Division's best
Astros
On paper, it looks like the A's may have the Astros beat in terms of depth, but where the Astros are lacking in available arms, they are deep in experience and cache. There's a formidable 1-2 at the top of the Astros' rotation with 2019 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke setting the pace. Verlander went 21-6 with 300 strikeouts, a 2.58 ERA and 0.80 WHIP en route to his second Cy Young. Greinke, traded from D-backs in July, was 18-5 with a 2.83 ERA combined, including 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts with Houston. But how do the Astros make up for the loss of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees? Lance McCullers Jr. will return to action this year after missing 2019 following Tommy John surgery, but is likely on an innings limit. Beyond that, the rest of the rotation is up for grabs. Brad Peacock and Jose Urquidy will be competing for a spot, along with newcomer Austin Pruitt. Brian McTaggart



Top 10 Right Now: Final 2 positions unveiled

Quote:


RELIEF PITCHERS
1) Kirby Yates, SD (not ranked)
2) Aroldis Chapman, NYY (8)
3) Josh Hader, MIL (3)
4) Liam Hendriks, OAK (NR)
5) Ryan Pressly, HOU (NR)
6) Brandon Workman, BOS (NR)
7) Seth Lugo, NYM (NR)
8) Adam Ottavino, NYY (NR)
9) Taylor Rogers, MIN (NR)
10) Will Smith, ATL (NR)


THIRD BASEMEN
1) Alex Bregman, HOU (Last year, 5)
2) Anthony Rendon, LAA (4)
3) Nolan Arenado, COL (3)
4) Matt Chapman, OAK (7)
5) Jeff McNeil, NYM (not ranked)
6) Josh Donaldson, MIN (9)
7) Justin Turner, LAD (2)
8) Eugenio Surez, CIN (10)
9) Jos Ramrez, CLE (1)
10) Manny Machado, SD (SS, 4)


SHORTSTOPS
1) Trevor Story, COL (Last year: 3)
2) Francisco Lindor, CLE (1)
3) Javier Bez, CHC (2)
4) Marcus Semien, OAK (not ranked)
5) Xander Bogaerts, BOS (NR)
6) Fernando Tatis Jr., SD (6)
7) Gleyber Torres, NYY (NR)
8) Jorge Polanco, MIN (NR)
9) Carlos Correa, HOU (NR)
10) Paul DeJong, STL (NR)


STARTING PITCHERS
1) Jacob deGrom, NYM (Last year: 3)
2) Justin Verlander, HOU (5)
3) Gerrit Cole, NYY (NR)
4) Max Scherzer, WSH (1)
5) Hyun-Jin Ryu, TOR (NR)
6) Zack Greinke, HOU (NR)
7) Jack Flaherty, STL (NR)
8) Patrick Corbin, WSH (NR)
9) Mike Clevinger, CLE (NR)
10) Walker Buehler, LAD (NR)


SECOND BASEMEN
1) Ketel Marte, ARI (NR)
2) DJ LeMahieu, NYY (10)
3) Jos Altuve, HOU (1)
4) Ozzie Albies, ATL (NR)
5) Brandon Lowe, TB (NR)
6) Keston Hiura, MIL (NR)
7) Mike Moustakas, CIN (NR)
8) Cavan Biggio, TOR (NR)
9) Kolten Wong, STL (NR)
10) Luis Arraez, MIN (NR)


CENTER FIELDERS
1) Mike Trout, LAA (Last year: 1)
2) Cody Bellinger, LAD (2)
3) George Springer, HOU (5)
4) Ramn Laureano, OAK (unranked)
5) Whit Merrifield, KC (3, at 2B)
6) Starling Marte, PIT (8)
7) Lorenzo Cain, MIL (3)
8) Aaron Hicks, NYY (4)
9) Brandon Nimmo, NYM (6, at RF)
10) Brett Gardner, NYY (unranked)


LEFT FIELDERS
1) Juan Soto, WSH (6)
2) Michael Brantley, HOU (unranked)
3) Bryan Reynolds, PIT (unranked)
4) Tommy Pham, SD (4)
5) Mark Canha, OAK (unranked)
6) Austin Meadows, TB (unranked)
7) Joc Pederson, LAD (unranked)
8) Kyle Schwarber, CHC (unranked)
9) David Peralta, ARI (10)
10) Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (2)

iBrad
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It's all just buzzers and trash cans, man.
Marvin
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Players "officially" report this week. This fan is "officially" looking forward to the worst offseason in team history to be over.

Side note: Mrs. Marvin dropped by MMP last week to peruse the Union Station store for any clearance deals. Last time there she ran into Jim Crane and had a quick chat. This time she wandered onto the concourse and watched a number of players work out on the field. I asked her if that was allowed, and why no security was around to stop her. She laughed and said, "I sang the National Anthem here in Enron's opening season, plus I now know Jim Crane." Haha, that's how she rolls...
tjack16
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I'm just ready for this season to start already... this has to be the longest offseason ever. Ready to be back in MMP
Deluxe
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I don't know the answer to this question but is it possible we used buzzers without technically breaking the rules?

So stealing signs electronically is explicitly breaking the rules. Relaying the stolen signs to live batters is a deemed extension of that rule breaking, but I'm not sure if that act per se is breaking the rules. For example, what if Joe Espada in the dugout has a very good read on a pitcher and can spot a tip that a batter in the box can't. Is it legal for him to somehow relay to the hitter what pitch he thinks is coming?

If that Espada example is legal, what would stop a team from pushing that concept to the limit? Like have 2-3 master pitch tip specialists watching a game in a backroom in 4k high res and then buzzing to the players when they think they have something? Maybe that's what we did in 2019 and the commish couldn't convict us because we technically didn't break the rules.
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