Put me on the "trading Correa is a ridiculous" train.

He's going to be paid big money on the open market because he's worth big money.

As for the window, we are built to win for a long time, but the future is always uncertain. There is a clear drop after 2020 and 2021. We can't just ignore potentially losing Brantley, Springer, Verlander, Greinke, & Correa. That's going to hurt. We need Whitley, TED, & Alvarez plus another couple to really step up and fill that hole.

mazag08 said:

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I'm perfectly fine with us trading Correa. He's going to be expensive to keep, and we would be just fine at SS with Bregman, and Diaz and Toro could platoon at 3rd. But that assumes that we keep Springer. If we trade Correa and Springer ends up walking.. then I'm pissed.

My strategy to ensure a highly competitive present and future is as follows. I'm in the boat of wanting long term playoff caliber teams, a steady clubhouse, even if it costs us not being the overall best team next year.

1. Trade Reddick. The best offer you get is worth it, no matter what it is. Even eating $5M of his salary would be worth it.

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How does a situation of trading a player but paying part of their salary play in to the luxury tax? Does that portion go into it, I know if you backlog a contract that doesnt effect the tax as it is averaged out over all years

Marvin said:

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mazag08 said:

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One interesting scenario.. thought VERY unlikely.

What if we convince Cole to sign with us for $40M over 2-3 years, while highlighting his potential to still get a max type deal at the end and potentially make even more money than signing an 8 year deal right now?

And then we trade Greinke to free up the space.

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I like the idea, but no way Cole gives up the other $168 million just to net an extra $12 million over the next 3 years. The only math I see working on this, if I'm in Crane's seat, is to back load an 8-year deal with the full intent of selling the franchise in the next 3. Get the immediate benefit and leave the bill for the next guy.

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That doesnt do anything for the luxury tax which he would have to pay before selling....and I dont think he would sensibly do that anyways

Unless we offload reddick and Brantley I don't see how we can afford Cole. Also not going to be able to resign joe Smith or will Harris

1. Trade reddick for whatever, marisnik or tucker platoon center/right.
2. Catcher - no idea who would be an upgrade but malde as backup cheap and a younger starter
2. Resign joe smith and Harris
3. Upgrade bullpen if you can
4. Roll with Greinke, verlander and lmj and 4-5?? Need one more decent arm if possible or another 1 year deal for Miley.
5. If there is a market for Greinke you make a run at Cole otherwise roll with him

cpsencik04 said:

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Marvin said:

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mazag08 said:

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One interesting scenario.. thought VERY unlikely.

What if we convince Cole to sign with us for $40M over 2-3 years, while highlighting his potential to still get a max type deal at the end and potentially make even more money than signing an 8 year deal right now?

And then we trade Greinke to free up the space.

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I like the idea, but no way Cole gives up the other $168 million just to net an extra $12 million over the next 3 years. The only math I see working on this, if I'm in Crane's seat, is to back load an 8-year deal with the full intent of selling the franchise in the next 3. Get the immediate benefit and leave the bill for the next guy.

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That doesnt do anything for the luxury tax which he would have to pay before selling....and I dont think he would sensibly do that anyways

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A limited three years of luxury tax and an escape from the long term liability say otherwise, but I was just throwing out one unlikely scenario in response to another. There is no legitimate way that I can see to resign Cole without gutting the existing team's collective future.

Doesn't sound like a bad idea.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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Unless we offload reddick and Brantley I don't see how we can afford Cole. Also not going to be able to resign joe Smith or will Harris

1. Trade reddick for whatever, marisnik or tucker platoon center/right.
2. Catcher - no idea who would be an upgrade but malde as backup cheap and a younger starter
2. Resign joe smith and Harris
3. Upgrade bullpen if you can
4. Roll with Greinke, verlander and lmj and 4-5?? Need one more decent arm if possible or another 1 year deal for Miley.
5. If there is a market for Greinke you make a run at Cole otherwise roll with him

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Some of these moves are good ideas just to give ourselves more flexibility and the ability to make other moves to improve our situation, but regardless, we don't want to make a run at Cole. We can afford him, it's just a matter of what it's gonna take to be able to afford him. We are going to be like the hourly worker with a $50,000 pickup that can technically afford it but lives in a ishtty rental & has a bunch of high-interest debt.

Like many above have said, it is a crippling contract. He may be "worth it" for the entirety of the contract, but if he puts you in a situation financially where you're having to roll out low-budget replacement level players @ key positions then it's a net loss.

Good news is that odds are he will be crippling the Angels. So we may have to deal with him a few times a year, they will have to deal with him all year for 6-8 years.

How does having to give up a draft pick to land either of these guys effect Lunhow's decision to pursue? I'd imagine they would both turn down the QO from the current teams. Could this be another Keuchel and Kimbrel type situation?

n_touch said:

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He would be taking a huge risk on his side just to do us a favor. He may still reach 38-40 milllion per year on a long term deal. What happens if in your 3 he blows out bis arm and needs TJ? He loses a year, is unsigned and will not command 40+ when he returns.

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We'd have to do something outrageous like 50 M a year for that to make any sense.

Cole has exceeded 200 IP in four of the last five years. Think about the current players that carry that load and how they fare later in their careers. Verlander , Greinke and Scherzer are examples, but more exceptions than the rule. You could be getting Verlander, or you could be getting Felix Hernandez.

Corey Kluber is 4 years older but in similar company. Assuming he's back healthy, would you give him a 4-year deal for $160 million today? Would you bet 6 years at that price on Clayton Kershaw (now 31)?

That's just a whopping chunk of change to bet the franchise on. Nail it and you might get a trophy, but even then it's no guarantee- see Kershaw as an example. Miss on it and you're absolutely in payroll hell like the Angels for half a decade.

Eight years. Gulp.

bearkatag15 said:

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How does having to give up a draft pick to land either of these guys effect Lunhow's decision to pursue? I'd imagine they would both turn down the QO from the current teams. Could this be another Keuchel and Kimbrel type situation?

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IMO we aren't going to be after either guy. Wheeler and Odorizzi will be looking for their big long term contract and don't seem like the type of fit that Luhnow will be looking for.

To your point though, I could easily see a scenario where some bigger name free agents hold out until June again. Maybe not with Wheeler and Odorizzi though, as I think those guys have good production relative to their proposed market values.

Keuchel/Kimbrel were interesting cases because they had big names/big demands, but their projected performance weren't on par. Someone like MadBum could be a candidate to be this year's Keuchel/Kimbrel. His market could be underwhelming relative to his big name.

Add Cole to the list. At least we should get one back if it does cost us one to sign another player.

bearkatag15 said:

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Add Cole to the list. At least we should get one back if it does cost us one to sign another player.

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I feel like it's unlikely that he'll hold out til June but who knows. Gimme dat pick!

Name I'm keeping an eye on at catcher is Travis d'Arnaud. Got a glimpse of him in the ALDS against the Rays and really like the way he swings the bat. Believe he was with NYM for a while and never got a full run because of injuries. Would be a nice guy to platoon behind the dish.

Quote:

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I'm one of the most outspoken critics on Correa on this board. That said, trading him right now while he's "cheap" and we are in our window would be incredibly silly.

The only way you trade him is if it gets major pieces that help you win now.

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Considering that Correa is relatively inexpensive for someone of his talent, the only way I see the Astros trading him is if they have a disappointing season in the next two years and it looks like they might miss the postseason. Then they might consider offers especially if Carlos appears he will definitely test the market in free agency.

I don't know that you get as much as you think trying to trade Correa. If I'm another team, why am I trading for a player who has significantly declined year over year in the number of games he's played and only 2 years of control. I'm not giving up alot of assets for that risk. Astros have luxury in offense that other teams do not so if I'm trying to add some assets, I wouldn't feel comfortable about adding a guy who might only play 50 regular season games next year. I think we ride Correa for 2 more years and then let him walk.

Nevermind

I've seen the arbitration number on Devo at $1.75 - $2M. I'm assuming they hang onto him as those numbers

So since we offered him an QO is that the only offer we can make?

Or is that a negotiation starting point that just ensures us a pick?

How does it work as far as continuing a negotiation with a QO already tendered?

Ag_07 said:

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So since we offered him an QO is that the only offer we can make?

Or is that a negotiation starting point that just ensures us a pick?

How does it work as far as continuing a negotiation with a QO already tendered?

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You have to offer him the QO to get the draft pick.

And look, I'm fine with Correa. I hope he tears it up. But if we want any starting pitching after 2021, he ain't gonna be here, not unless George walks or we trade one of Bregman or Altuve. So he has two years to perform and earn that contract. Hopefully he does and we are all happy. If not, we might look back and wonder what we could have done to load the farm for the future.. and that will be item #1.

I know that

But how does a multi year offer made by us affect the draft compensation of the QO?

Like...When he rejects the QO can we make a multi year offer? If we do does it negate the draft compensation attached to the QO?

And the only chance we have it convincing Cole to take a short 2-3 year deal to chase a ring in the slot we have JV and Cole then he can hit the market again to cash in and retire in Cali.

Doubt he goes for that but that's the only way. I don't see us offering anywhere near the 8 year handcuffing deal.

The QO is irrelevant to us offering another contract. It's more like a minimum offer that has to be made for draft compensation but does not preclude you from offering any other contracts.

the Yankees did not extend a Q.O. to Didi Gregorious.

probably looking for a 2-year stop gap... and then going after Lindor or Correa in free agency

If the Yankees want Cole now they can't do Correa in 2 years. They will have to pay Judge.

that's right.

this is where the Giancarlo contract really hurts them. The Bombers don't have enough for Judge, Cole, Giancarlo, and one of the 2021 shortstops.

that would be 4 players in the $30 MM club --- and Cole & Judge will be closer to the $35 MM club

and speaking of the $30 MM club...

J.D. Martinez does not opt of his contract. So the Red Sox payroll will stay tight with regard to signing/extending Mookie Betts.

J.D. will make $23 MM in 2020 and $19 MM in 2021 & 2022.

and of course Sale & Price --- both in the $30 MM club --- are on the Sox books thru 2022