Manny Machado to the Padres: 10yr/$300M

3,402 Views | 26 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by W
DallasAg 94
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Like they can pay that...


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/padres-agree-to-terms-with-manny-machado.html

ORAggieFan
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It's actually not awful. One of, if not, the top farm systems with people high up. This is a team that can start winning in 2-3 years and have a 5 year window.
AggieEP
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I love this deal, you've seen me complain on multiple threads about tankers and owners lying to their fans faces about what they "can afford" and this deal is an awesome step in the right direction.

As far as I'm concerned, owning a baseball team is a luxury hobby for the super rich and if the owner can't afford to operate with a payroll at or within shouting distance of the luxury tax, then they shouldn't be an owner in the first place. The Padres were at $94 million in payroll last year, or more than $100 million below the luxury tax threshold. Adding $30 million for Machado doesn't cripple them financially, it just signals one more team actually wants to compete and I love that. Fans should be excited to go to games at Petco Park and if the kids live up to the hype Machado could be the centerpiece of a contending team for the next 5-7 years.

(Related rant, I saw on another story I was reading that the Marlins had the 2017 NL MVP, the 2018 NL MVP and the top catcher by WAR on the same team under control and sold them all off for "cost" reasons all while still under the luxury tax. Again, how could MLB have ok'd the sale of one of their teams to a bunch of frauds, surely there was a billionaire out there willing to buy the team and try to win.)
Rossko
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AG
I hope they land Harper too. Wouldn't that be fun!
mhayden
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The media would implode if they landed Harper.

They couldn't wrap their minds around a guy like A-Rod signing with Texas and not some historical franchise -- if they have to constantly report on Machado and Harper in San Diego it will be hilarious.
piag94
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AG
10 year contracts don't work
AggieEP
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Don't work for who?

I'm always confused by this sentiment. I agree there is likely to be a slip in performance on the back half of the deal but it's the price to pay in baseball where long contract exist. The benefit is that 3-4 year old kids in San Diego will grow up watching Machado for the next decade, hopefully alongside Margot, Hosmer, Meija and Tatis Jr. building a strong fan base around the team. Personal connections are important for baseball teams. Me and my wife used to go to a lot more ranger games when Kinsler and Young were on the team because they were players we'd watched together for 6-8 years, the last couple of years we've only made 1 game while the team has been a mess.

THE OWNERS ARE BILLIONAIRES, why do fans worry about their money? Because the owner might lie to you in 3-4 years about fiscal constraints when they let another player walk? San Diego is still $75 million under the luxury tax and that's with $25 million of dead money on their books from a couple of other deals/trades (Phil Hughes and Matt Kemp)
hawk1689
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Right now, we think of Manny Machado like Manny Machado. In three years he might be more like Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford. 100+ Million contracts don't have a good history of working out well for the teams that make the deal. The problem, is that the cost of these contracts is passed on to you and I. Every time the Jason Heyward's of the world get paid, my nacho price goes up.
piag94
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I am not worried about the owners money. To be locked into a 10 year deal has NEVER worked. He will be a yankee in 4 years.
mhayden
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Deals like that are the only way teams like San Diego land talent like that in free agency.
Ag_07
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AG
He has an opt out at 5 years.

My guess is SD flounders around and continues to rebuild. Maybe their young talent gets them in a WC spot toward the end of that 5 years, but Manny opts out and gets another big contract from a contender as a 31 year old.

That's the contract that will be a headache to someone.

This one is just a waste of money.
Bunk Moreland
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I know it's largely ownership and organization that's the issue because it's insane that San Diego isn't a top destination for any baseball player.

Beautiful stadium in beautiful downtown
Beautiful city
Beautiful women
Beautiful weather
Beautiful beaches
The Lost
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Bunk Moreland said:

I know it's largely ownership and organization that's the issue because it's insane that San Diego isn't a top destination for any baseball player.

Beautiful stadium in beautiful downtown
Beautiful city
Beautiful women
Beautiful weather
Beautiful beaches
if you're a pitcher yes... you left out where stats go to die as well with the big park
Bunk Moreland
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The Lost said:

Bunk Moreland said:

I know it's largely ownership and organization that's the issue because it's insane that San Diego isn't a top destination for any baseball player.

Beautiful stadium in beautiful downtown
Beautiful city
Beautiful women
Beautiful weather
Beautiful beaches
if you're a pitcher yes... you left out where stats go to die as well with the big park

Used to be the case but not after they made some adjustments.

in 2018 it ranked 13th in runs, 16th in HR, 8th in doubles, 11th in triples
Deluxe
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As an Astros fan, I'm very thankful my team didn't use your logic back in 2012 to sign Albert Pujols to a 10/$240mm deal. Like others have said, I'm not worried about a "billionaire's money" on a year to year basis. I am worried about my team possessing $30mm of deadweight salary in a contract's latter years because it limits flexibility to improve.

2012: He's one of the best hitters of all time! He can still mash at DH in contract latter years! The fans will love him! And he can mentor and grow with the young guys!*

2019: He's OPS'd .700 for basically 3 years running. We owe him $28mm/year for the next 3 years. We can't trade him without picking up most of his salary. And now my team is in its championship window and we can't re-sign both our star pitchers without major lux tax penalties... womp womp.

The players ought to take note of this reality and adjust. Owners are cashing in and most are willing to spend on a year to year basis (except the "tankers"... about which our opinions likely overlap). They're rightfully reluctant to shell out 10 year deals. Fine. Instead of stomping feet and crying on Twitter, why not demand more money per year on shorter deals, then hit free agency/get paid again while still in their primes? Instead of 10/$300mm, how about 5/$175mm or 3/$120mm? I think those type of deals are much more mutually beneficial.
Schall 02
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Owners are businessmen. It is unlikely they choose to bleed much money. So someone is paying for these contracts. And that someone is in large part anyone that still pays $100+ a month for cable TV.
mhayden
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There's also external, not-on-the-field factors to take into account.

A large part of the Pujols signing had to do with the TV-deal the Angels were about to sign.
Bunk Moreland
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Correct. Their owner has said as much in discussions about Harper (8 years/ $350-$375 being floated)...He said he makes those deals for the fan experience also and doesn't regret the Pujols deal.
KT 90
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If Harper has turned down $300 million recently, we don't need to hear any whining from the players union about the free agency market dragging out too long this off-season.

TXAggie2011
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Albert Pujols was a 33 year old whose performance had fallen for several years in a row.

Manny Machado is a 25 year old who just had the best offensive season of his career. Certainly, his defense has declined.


The Astros are committed to paying Jose Altuve a lot of money until's he's 35 and if they have any intention of keeping their other stars, they're going to have to commit to doing something similar for them.

The difference is Jose is already "your guy" so it somehow feels less risky or whatever to commit to paying a lot of money to a 34 year old.
Rossko
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TXAggie2011 said:

Albert Pujols was a 33 year old whose performance had fallen for several years in a row.

Manny Machado is a 25 year old who just had the best offensive season of his career. Certainly, his defense has declined.


The Astros are committed to paying Jose Altuve a lot of money until's he's 35 and if they have any intention of keeping their other stars, they're going to have to commit to doing something similar for them.

The difference is Jose is already "your guy" so it somehow feels less risky or whatever to commit to paying a lot of money to a 34 year old.
I don't understand people hating on this contract. Pujols and Gonzalez as comps is laughable as they both had their best years aged 26-30 which is precisely the years the Padres just paid for. This contract will be worth it for San Diego just for the marketing, merchandise & tickets alone.
AggieEP
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Read what Max Scherzer said a few days ago, teams have driven the narrative so hard through the media about "flexibility" and "avoiding long term deals" and "not being ready to spend money yet" that the fans have somehow adopted this thinking as if their own money is at stake. I used to fret over things like this, and if I was an owner I probably would too, but as a fan, I want all 30 teams to aggressively try to win every year. It pisses me off right now that the Rangers rotation will be trash next year and there aren't a lot of good candidates for the bullpen while Keuchel and Kimbrel sit unemployed. Maybe they aren't interested in Texas, but signing both would be good for the competitiveness of the club next year.

People are hating this deal because their owners have trained them to fear this kind of deal as if it somehow prevents the team from winning.

Also, I laugh at the above comment that nacho prices are somehow tied to Machado/Pujols contracts. The owners have the concessions priced at the highest possible number they can get away with without pissing off their fans. I've been to 10 MLB parks and the concessions are expensive whether you're at Kaufman, ATT, TBiA, Minute Maid, Petco, Dodger Stadium, Chase Field or the Kingdome (Yes I flew cross country as a young man so I could see Griffey play in the Kingdome). I haven't been to a game in Tampa but I bet the owner isn't offering discounts on concessions as good will to the fans since he's not spending on the team.

And Machado is an investment for the Padres in the long term value of the franchise which is where the owners make their real money. The current group bought the team for 800 million dollars and probably figure that if they can turn the Padres into a contender over a 10 year period they stand to increase the valuation of the franchise quite a bit. Get lucky and win a World Series and Machado's contract has basically paid for itself.
_lefraud_
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If the Padres don't sign Harper, I'm hoping they land Trout two years from now.
W
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it's just laughable that so many people including all the ESPN pundits think this is a great deal for both sides.

Camden Yards is a right-handed hitter's paradise. His OPS was almost 140 points lower in L.A. Why do folks ignore this?

plus he's already shown to be a troublemaker. He could wear out his welcome in San Diego rather quickly.

maybe the one thing he can do in SD is resurrect Eric Hosmer. The Padres will pay Machado & Hosmer a combined $51 MM in 2019 (and for the next 3 years). That's crazy
W
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AG
AggieEP said:


People are hating this deal because their owners have trained them to fear this kind of deal as if it somehow prevents the team from winning.

but it does keep teams from winning (other than the Red Sox and Yankees).

the Angels have had Pujols and Trout for 7 years and done zilch in the postseason. Only made the playoffs once. The Cano contract was a disaster for the Mariners.

the reason the Astros got Verlander is because the Tigers had grossly overspent on veteran players and big contracts and had to dump their stars. (that was great for the 'stros of course)
AggieEP
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No, it doesn't keep teams from winning. Look at the payrolls of WS winners over the past 7 or 8 years. All of them had at least a few high dollar guys not producing what their contract would suggest and still won the WS. Even the Royals in 2015 had their top 4 payroll guys basically do nothing for them and still win it. The Cubs had Jason Heyward, the Giants had Barry Zito at first and then later Cain and Lincecum all as examples of dead'ish money on a team but still winning. Even the Astros Carlos Beltran deal had a terrible ROI in terms of WAR/$ but they still won. Paying big dollars to older ball players who might not stay healthy/produce like you expect is part of the gamble of trying to win, sometimes you guess right (Lorenzo Cain) and sometimes you guess wrong (Jason Heyward) but you can still win.

And you're wrong that the Tigers "had" to dump their stars, they just simply cashed in an asset during a time of low performance by the team. Their owner is famously wanted to win before he died and ok'd aggressive front office spending, which was awesome and almost worked in Detroit. And also Verlander is a weird example to use, because he's a star who is absolutely still earning his paycheck even after a hefty payday. That was a good contract the Tigers gave him.

San Diego currently allocates a bunch of it's payroll to 3 guys, Machado, Myers (might be traded) and Hosmer and that doesn't handicap them at all. It's only a problem if you try to pay 6 guys $30 million per year that you lose all roster flexibility and I'll listen to claims of budget constraints with the real consequences of the luxury tax.

Guys are now making $20 million in ARB2 status (Mookie Betts) so the $30 million number is just a natural landing spot for talented players and a perfectly reasonable number for Machado. IF they paid him $50 million a year I'd agree that's too much, but they paid market value almost on the dot for him and if he performs like they expect, it's probably only a 5 year 150 million dollar deal anyway since he might opt out and try again.

Rossko
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AG
Here are the 2018 ranks for runs & homeruns per game:

Camden - 18th & 9th
Petco - 13th & 16th

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2018

There is more to productivity than HR and Machado is entering his prime. I would expect 30+ HR and ~.550 SLG. He will be fine playing in San Diego and the Padres have an absolutely LOADED farm system right now. They will be in the playoffs in 2020.
W
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Year 1 of the Machado era in San Diego is in the books.

the Padres finished last in the NL West with a 70-92 record.

Machado had 32 HR & 85 RBI.

hit .256 for the season. Slugged .462 and posted a .796 OPS.

as predicted Manny really missed Camden Yards. At Petco Park this year, he slugged just .406 and posted a .703 OPS.

He made $32 MM in 2019 and will make another $32 MM in 2020. Better luck next year Padres
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