2019 HOF Voting

13,318 Views | 165 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Coog97
PacifistAg
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94chem said:

When I visited Cooperstown as a child in the 1980's, the new guys would have been Schmidt, Morgan, Bench. The group before that would have been Aaron, Mays; and back a little further, Koufax, Mantle, Williams.

Even as a boy, I still knew every name there - Speaker, Cobb, Hornsby, Ruth, Gehrig. But a man my father's age - he literally saw most of them play, or at least read the box scores every day. A man my grandfather's age - still alive at the time - remembered everything that had ever happened in the modern era. To him, Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron were contemporaries. For us, we might as well be talking about Bible figures.

Anyway, my point is that baseball's history is so multi-generational today that there's nobody alive who can tell us what it was like at the beginning of the modern era, and our frame of reference has to accept that. Nobody can tell me what Walter Johnson or Bob Feller looked like after throwing 18 innings in 4 days, or how the ball jumped off Ruth's bat, or how hard it was to field a grounder using an "oven mitt" for a glove.

I'll shut up for now, but just think of this. If Clayton Kershaw retired today, he'd be a no doubt first ballot hall of famer, with 153 wins. How the game has changed...
You mentioned Koufax in the same sentence as Mantle & Williams, but then point to Kershaw being evidence of how the game has changed because he'd be a lock with only 153 wins. That doesn't really make sense.

Koufax:
GS 314
W/L 165-87 (.655)
ERA 2.76
ERA+ 131
WHIP 1.106

Kershaw:
GS 316
W/L 153-69 (.689)
ERA 2.39
ERA+ 159
WHIP 1.005

Koufax only has 12 more wins, which can largely be attributed to changes in the game and how starters/bullpens are used. But their win totals are very similar, as it basically averages to just about 1 win more per season. Kershaw has a significantly lower ERA, WHIP and has a better win percentage. If we're looking at any player today that looks more like a throwback to a legend of the past, Kershaw/Koufax are about as similar as one can get.

Heck, I'd say Kershaw is significantly better than Koufax, given the consistent brilliance of Kershaw throughout his entire career. Looking at their top 5 year stretches, the similarities are scary:

Koufax (1962-1966):
GS 176
W/L 111-34 (.766)
ERA 1.95
ERA+ 167
WHIP 0.926

Kershaw (2013-2017):
GS 141
W/L 83-27 (.755)
ERA 1.95
ERA+ 192
WHIP 0.873

It's the other years that sets Kershaw far above Koufax:

Koufax (1955-1961):
GS 138
W/L 54-53 (.505)
ERA 3.94
ERA+ 105
WHIP 1.368

Kershaw (2008-2012):
GS 149
W/L 61-37 (.622)
ERA 2.79
ERA+ 138
WHIP 1.137

I didn't include 2018 because I couldn't get baseball reference to create a total for 08-12 & 18, but adding 2018 would only make his "off" years look better.
PacifistAg
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jja79 said:

Then he should finish the games. Koufax pitched 105 complete games his last 6 years.
That's just not how the game works nowadays, especially with the amount of money invested into these arms. It doesn't diminish his brilliance, but when he comes out is really not his call.
94chem
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jja79 said:

Then he should finish the games. Koufax pitched 105 complete games his last 6 years.


My point above. Just a different game, and no single lifetime has witnessed all of it. Somebody from 1940 wouldn't believe that guys who throw 98 can't even get minor league contracts, guys who strike out 200 times can make $15 million, and we have no idea what it felt like to wear a wool uniform for a double header or to throw 300 pitches in 4 days...routinely.
PacifistAg
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I've gone down the Kershaw rabbit hole and am looking at some of his splits. Man, the guy is truly phenomenal and one of the all-time greats.

Typically, a team hits a pitcher harder the more times they see him in a game. The increases w/ Kershaw are minuscule, and even see a decrease when a hitter has their 4th PA against him in a game:

1st Plate Appearance (PA)
BA .191
OBP .244
SLG .291
OPS .535

2nd PA
BA .211
OBP .268
SLG .316
OPS .584

3rd PA
BA .221
OBP .276
SLG .335
OPS .611

4th PA
BA .214
OBP .263
SLG .281
OPS .543
Mr.Ackar07
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PacifistAg said:

I've gone down the Kershaw rabbit hole and am looking at some of his splits. Man, the guy is truly phenomenal and one of the all-time greats.

Typically, a team hits a pitcher harder the more times they see him in a game. The increases w/ Kershaw are minuscule, and even see a decrease when a hitter has their 4th PA against him in a game:

1st Plate Appearance (PA)
BA .191
OBP .244
SLG .291
OPS .535

2nd PA
BA .211
OBP .268
SLG .316
OPS .584

3rd PA
BA .221
OBP .276
SLG .335
OPS .611

4th PA
BA .214
OBP .263
SLG .281
OPS .543
The 4th PA numbers are an anomaly as pitchers usually don't face a guy a 4th time unless they are locked in the entire game; games in which they have "it". If he is having an ok game, which for Kershaw is still a good game, you would probably see the trend continue from the the 1st to 2nd to 3rd PA splits.
PacifistAg
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Yeah, I had thought about that as well. Either way, the numbers throughout the game are insane, especially when your best "chance" is hitting .221 w/ a .611 OPS.
W
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the grand canyon-esque difference between Koufax and Kershaw comes in the postseason.

Sandy posted a 0.95 ERA in 57 innings of postseason work (including 2 shutouts)...all in the World Series. He was a 2-time WS MVP.

honestly "grand canyon" might not be a strong enough adjective in this case
W
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and since 5 teams from each league make the playoffs every season...

(5 of 15...33% chance at the start of the season)

it's much more fair to hold a current player's postseason record against (or for) him.

great players nowadays should be in the playoffs quite a bit in their careers
_lefraud_
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Yea but Koufax never had to pitch in a division series, or even championship series.
PacifistAg
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W said:

the grand canyon-esque difference between Koufax and Kershaw comes in the postseason.

Sandy posted a 0.95 ERA in 57 innings of postseason work (including 2 shutouts)...all in the World Series. He was a 2-time WS MVP.

honestly "grand canyon" might not be a strong enough adjective in this case

This is silly. Kershaw has been more consistently dominant in a far more challenging offensive era, but you're going to say that 57 IP of the 2300+ IP Koufax threw means a "grand canyon" separates him from Kershaw.

We're talking career, which is far more than 57 IP in the postseason.
W
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Kershaw's numbers in the NLDS round are rather pedestrian: 3.72 ERA.

and his numbers in the NLCS round are flat out mediocre: 4.61 ERA.

and without looking up the opponents...the Dodgers may have not been facing the best or second-best teams from the NL in those NLDS matchups.

whereas Koufax for example in the 1963 world series faced the 104-win Yankees
PacifistAg
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Postseason: Koufax > Kershaw
Entire career: Kershaw > Koufax
Mathguy64
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PacifistAg said:

Postseason: Koufax > Kershaw
Entire career: Kershaw > Koufax


Yes I know it was a different era, but really? Koufax in his last 2 seasons threw 27 CGs. Not total. Each season he threw 27 CGs. He made 41 starts each season and threw more than 320 IP each time. In a 4 man rotation.
_lefraud_
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Feel bad for the Toronto Blue Jays, as Halladay's plaque will not have a logo.
PacifistAg
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Yes, really. Koufax was mediocre for the first half of his career, with poor control. The last half was freakishly dominant after he got his control down. Kershaw has been freakishly dominant his entire career though.

If you want to say peak Koufax is better than peak Kershaw, okay. I think they're amazingly similar at their peak. But if you're looking at the entirety of a career, it's clear. I'm not sure why we get to ignore the first half of Koufax's career, but give inordinate amount of weight to Kershaw's postseason struggles.

And in no way is that meant to take anything away from Koufax, but I feel that a legitimate argument can be made for Kershaw. It's more a credit to Kershaw that he's even made out a legitimate discussion. I certainly wouldn't say either is ahead by a "grand canyon" amount.
Bobby Petrino`s Neckbrace
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mathguy86 said:

Said it before and I will say it again. The last year Bonds and Clemens are eligible is the first year David Ortiz is. He failed a test. And the writers will want to induct him in a bad way. They can't do it and not vote for Bonds and Clemens.
Bonds and Clemens are a-holes. Big Papi is not. Ortiz gets in, Bonds and Clemens won't. JMO.
Big Al 1992
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No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.
_lefraud_
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Big Al 1992 said:

No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.

I'm not sure anyone (outside of astro homers) would compare Berkman to Edgar. If Berkman would have been good enough to contine being a DH, he would have...

But I did notice Michael Young got more votes than Berkman, which I find rather satisfying.
Ag-Yoakum95
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LeonardSkinner said:

I am legitimately planning a trip to Cooperstown for the next HOF induction weekend. And we're going to see Harold Baines? Thanks. My kid is never going to take baseball seriously now.
You should wait until next year when Jeter gets in. Either way it's worth the trip to Cooperstown. I went two years ago when Bagwell and Pudge got inducted. Make sure you attend the Saturday evening parade of all of the HOF players in town for the weekend. What an experience for a baseball junkie!
94chem
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_lefraud_ said:

Big Al 1992 said:

No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.

I'm not sure anyone (outside of astro homers) would compare Berkman to Edgar. If Berkman would have been good enough to contine being a DH, he would have...

But I did notice Michael Young got more votes than Berkman, which I find rather satisfying.
Berkman and Edgar have pretty similar stats. To me, the difference is that Edgar was without question the best player at his position, which was...DH. And the debate circles again...
PacifistAg
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It also helps Edgar's case that he hit at least .320, or more, seven times. Plus, Berkman rarely ended the season with his name at the top of statistical categories.

Times leading the league:
Berkman - 3 (2B x 2; RBI)
Martinez - 11 (R; 2B x 2; RBI; BA x 2; OBP x 3; OPS; OPS+)

Personally, I'd rather they both be in the Hall of Very Good, but I do believe Edgar has a more solid HOF case.
Oyster DuPree
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_lefraud_ said:

Big Al 1992 said:

No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.

I'm not sure anyone (outside of astro homers) would compare Berkman to Edgar. If Berkman would have been good enough to contine being a DH, he would have...

But I did notice Michael Young got more votes than Berkman, which I find rather satisfying.

Berkman belongs in the 'Hall of Very Good', Michael Young is a veterans committee selection to the 'Hall of Good'
powerbelly
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Oyster DuPree said:

_lefraud_ said:

Big Al 1992 said:

No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.

I'm not sure anyone (outside of astro homers) would compare Berkman to Edgar. If Berkman would have been good enough to contine being a DH, he would have...

But I did notice Michael Young got more votes than Berkman, which I find rather satisfying.

Berkman belongs in the 'Hall of Very Good', Michael Young is a veterans committee selection to the 'Hall of Good'
No objection from me.
_lefraud_
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Berkman votes = 5
Oswalt votes = 4
Michael Young votes = 9
Farmer1906
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_lefraud_ said:

Big Al 1992 said:

No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.

I'm not sure anyone (outside of astro homers) would compare Berkman to Edgar. If Berkman would have been good enough to contine being a DH, he would have...

But I did notice Michael Young got more votes than Berkman, which I find rather satisfying.


Edgar
Avg - .298
Obp - .406
Slug. - .537
Ops - .943
wRC+ - 144

Berkman
Avg - .312
Obp - .418
Slug - .515
Ops - .933
wRC+ - 147

Who would you rather have? The only thing Edgar has on Berkman is the counting stars because he was able to play 4 additional years. I do think attendance matters, but for one to get in and one to be 1 and done is pretty silly.
Bregxit
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Farmer1906 said:

_lefraud_ said:

Big Al 1992 said:

No one has mentioned Berkman is one and done. He was borderline very good/HoF but very similar stats to Edgar. And Berkman played the field most of the time - Martinez was majority a DH.

I'm not sure anyone (outside of astro homers) would compare Berkman to Edgar. If Berkman would have been good enough to contine being a DH, he would have...

But I did notice Michael Young got more votes than Berkman, which I find rather satisfying.


Edgar
Avg - .298
Obp - .406
Slug. - .537
Ops - .943
wRC+ - 144

Berkman
Avg - .312
Obp - .418
Slug - .515
Ops - .933
wRC+ - 147

Who would you rather have? The only thing Edgar has on Berkman is the counting stars because he was able to play 4 additional years. I do think attendance matters, but for one to get in and one to be 1 and done is pretty silly.
You have Edgar and Lance's numbers backwards. And Lance hit .293 for his career, not .298.
Coog97
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Ag-Yoakum95 said:

LeonardSkinner said:

I am legitimately planning a trip to Cooperstown for the next HOF induction weekend. And we're going to see Harold Baines? Thanks. My kid is never going to take baseball seriously now.
You should wait until next year when Jeter gets in. Either way it's worth the trip to Cooperstown. I went two years ago when Bagwell and Pudge got inducted. Make sure you attend the Saturday evening parade of all of the HOF players in town for the weekend. What an experience for a baseball junkie!
We were there, as well... and yes, the parade was great! Thought it was cool of Biggio to sign so many autographs after he got off the truck. Ripken signed forever, also.

Saw Doc Gooden walking down the sidewalk afterwards... he looked rough.
 
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