Ballots have been mailed out. 2 votes have already been made public.

Vote Tracker

Here's this year's ballot:

Last year's returning candidates (2018%)

• Bonds (56.4)
• Clemens (57.3)
• A. Jones (7.3)
• Kent (14.5)
• Edgar (70.4)
• McGriff (23.2)
• Mussina (63.5)
• Manny (22.0)
• Rolen (10.2)
• Schilling (51.2)
• Sheffield (11.1)
• Sosa (7.8)
• Vizquel (37.0)
• Wagner (11.1)
• Walker (34.1)

First year candidates:

• Berkman
• Halladay
• Helton
• Oswalt
• Pettitte
• Rivera
• M. Young

Predictions:

• Rivera
• Edgar
• Halladay

Obviously, Rivera is a lock. I think Edgar and Halladay are as well. Outside of them, I don't see anyone else likely to get in. Hopeful that Bonds/Clemens can approach 65%, but they'll likely end up hovering around 60%. Mussina will be the closest to miss. I think he'll end up with around 70-72%, then make it next year. Schilling seems to have kept his mouth shut, as far as I'm aware, so he'll probably see a bit of a bump. I wouldn't really put Mussina or Schilling in, regardless, but that's just me. Would love to see Walker gain more traction though, as well as Rolen.

Good stuff. Thanks

how many more years on the ballot for Bonds & Clemens?

Oswalt, has he played 5 more years, would have been a near lock.

I'm pretty surprised McGriff has not gotten more love from the voters

W said:

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how many more years on the ballot for Bonds & Clemens?

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This is their 7th year, so just 3 more after this one.

mazag08 said:

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Oswalt, has he played 5 more years, would have been a near lock.

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I don't know. He was already trending in a very bad direction. I imagine if he had hung around 5 more years, he would have, at best, been a #4 or #5 but most likely more of a bullpen asset.

My vote:

Bonds
Clemens
Halladay
Ramirez
Rivera
Sosa
Visquel

This is a weird class...If I had a ballot, I could legitimately see myself voting for as few as 4, and that's it

In no particular order: Mussina, Rivera, Martinez, McGriff; then maybe Wagner, Schilling, Halladay.

ManRam isn't making the HOF. Getting busted taking Clomid and a 50 game suspension is already a vote killer. Being an idiot and getting popped a second time and a 100 game suspension that forces you to retire to avoid the penalty? Yeah I will go out on a limb here and say Manny won't ever make it.

_lefraud_ said:

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My vote:

Bonds
Clemens
Halladay
Ramirez
Rivera
Sosa
Visquel

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Are any "locks" besides Palmeiro off the ballot?

LeonardSkinner said:

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This is a weird class...If I had a ballot, I could legitimately see myself voting for as few as 4, and that's it

In no particular order: Mussina, Rivera, Martinez, McGriff; then maybe Wagner, Schilling, Ramirez, Halladay.

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Curious as to the reasoning behind considering Manny, but not Bonds/Clemens.

Early candidate for most confusing ballot of the year:

Clemens, Pettitte, and Sosa...but no Bonds? Helton as a 1st ballot, but no Walker?

That's the Chinese menu equivalent of HOF voting. I'm picking 4 from column A, 3 from B and 3 from C.

the only player on that list that jumps out to me as a surefire Hall of Famer is Mariano Rivera.

for the rest of the players I need to go look up or verify their stats (to compare to other greats)

and after looking up Halladay's numbers...yes, he's a Hall of Famer

I'm a little confused as to why Halladay is a "lock", yet Johan Santana only lasted on the ballot for one year...but I guess longevity matters THAT much.

I think Halladay is a hall of famer, but I'm not sure his resume is far superior than that of Santana.

_lefraud_ said:

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I'm a little confused as to why Halladay is a "lock", yet Johan Santana only lasted on the ballot for one year...but I guess longevity matters THAT much.

I think Halladay is a hall of famer, but I'm not sure his resume is far superior than that of Santana.

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I think you hit on the answer. It's a longevity issue. If you look at their best 9 year stretch, their numbers are nearly identical. The problem is that after that 9th year for Johan, his arm fell off. He missed his age 32 season, and was a shell of himself in his final (age 33) season.

I do think Johan gets a much closer look by later HOF committees. He was simply dominant during that 9 year stretch.

Johan (2002 - 2010)
W/L - 130-66
ERA - 2.90
ERA+ - 150
WHIP - 1.076
Cy Young (top 5) - 5 (2 wins)

Halladay (2003 - 2011)
W/L - 151-68
ERA - 2.97
ERA+ - 147
WHIP - 1.102
Cy Young (top 5) - 7 (2 wins)

I think it's a shame that John fell off after 1 ballot. A couple things worked against him. Obviously the longevity, but also the fact that the ballot just got stuffed with should-be HOFers that were suspected of PED use. They had enough support to stay on the ballot, but never enough to make it in, so they kept taking up spots on ballots. Removing the 10-vote limit would have helped Johan big time.

very interesting to compare Johan's numbers to Ron Guidry's. They are very similar.

another very good left-handed pitcher that had a 5-year stretch of greatness, but then injuries took their toll.

and of course Guidry was terrific in the postseason with the Yankees whereas Johan struggled

Very early update:

12 ballots
Rivera - 12 (100%)
Edgar - 12 (100%)
Halladay - 10 (83.3%)
Mussina - 9 (75%)
Clemens - 9 (75%)
Bonds - 8 (66.7%)
Schilling - 8 (66.7%)
Vizquel - 7 (58.3%)
Walker - 5 (41.7%)
Manny - 4 (33.3%)
Helton - 3 (25%)
Pettitte - 3 (25%)
Sosa - 3 (25%)
McGriff - 2 (16.7%)
Rolen - 2 (16.7%)
A. Jones - 1 (8.3%)

No votes: Berkman, Kent, Oswalt, Sheffield, Wagner, M. Young

So do y'all think bonds and Clemens ever get in??

I do, but might be by veterans committee or something.

_lefraud_ said:

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I do, but might be by veterans committee or something.

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And why not Palmeiro? He would have still been Mark Grace without the roids.

mathguy86 said:

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94chem said:

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_lefraud_ said:

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I do, but might be by veterans committee or something.

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And why not Palmeiro? He would have still been Mark Grace without the roids.

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Whether you believe their denials or not, Bonds and Clemens never failed a test. Palmeiro did. And he wagged his finger and said in his Congressional testimony he didn't. And along the way lied his ass off about it.

2022 is the big test. That's the year David Ortiz first shows up on the ballot. And of course he failed a test, before penalties became effective. And everyone loves Big Papi.

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Agreed. Given how popular Ortiz is, he may carry Bonds and Clemens across the finish line. I think his first year will be Bonds/Clemens final year on the ballot. Voters will not have any reasonable justification to vote for Ortiz, but not Bonds/Clemens. Bonds/Clemens should pick up a ton of votes as a result.

Rick Ankiel is actually attempting to come back as a relief pitcher this year.

CampingAg said:

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Seven Costanza said:

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So apparently Harold Baines is going to be in the Hall of Fame. Odd choice.

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Harold Baines?? They letting just anybody in now?

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the hall of fame was cash strapped and they sold their naming rights to Arizona State. So in an effort to show solidarity with their admissions policy, they let in Harold Baines and they're seriously considering Jose canseco on the off-the-head homerun conceded alone.

oh my goodness, Baines in the Hall...that's unbelievable.

he never even reach the 10% threshold mark while he was on the ballot. His highest MVP finish in 20 years was 9th. Wow. He never led the league in HR's or RBI or hits or BA or even doubles.

this should pave the way for guys like Dave Parker, Al Oliver, Dwight Evans, Rusty Staub, et al. Those players have much greater awards and accolades than Baines

I'd be curious to see where Baines ranks among the least deserving HOF members ever. Just absurd that he is going to be in.

22 seasons:
H: 2866
BA: .289
RBI: 1628
HR: 384
WAR: 38.7
MVP: 0 (only 2 times in top 10)
Black Ink: 3 (avg HOF 27)
Gray Ink: 40 (avg HOF 144)
HOF Monitor: 66 (avg HOF 100)

Plus, he was primarily a DH and was a horrible defensive player when he was in the field (-19.5 dWAR).

For fun, I looked up another player that popped in my head when I heard about Baines. Who is more deserving....Baines or Juan Gonzalez:

17 seasons:
H: 1936
BA: .295
RBI: 1404
HR: 434
WAR: 38.7
MVP: 2-time MVP (4 times in top 5)
Black Ink: 17 (avg HOF 27)
Gray Ink: 105 (avg HOF 144)
HOF Monitor: 123 (avg HOF 100)

Neither should be close to being a HOFer, but just using the comparison to further highlight how ridiculous this election is.

Looks like the deck was stacked. Jerry Reinsdorf and Tony LaRussa were on the committee. So owner of the team he played for and is currently employed by plus his former manager.

They also voted in Lee Smith. Lou Pinella missed by one vote.

I don't see how Harold Baines can be in and Dave Parker not be. Very strange...