Ohtani and MVP discussion

3,937 Views | 35 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Ag_07
astros4545
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AG
Thru 10 games, I feel he may have a real shot

What type of numbers do you think should get him serious consideration

15-7 with a 3.3 ERA
Hit .275 with 18 and 50 RBI

Assuming he starts batting in 80 games

Would that stat line garner MVP consideration
TXAggie2011
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AG
Probably, if not just for the novelty of it, but it probably should on its own accord.

To have a pretty good pitcher who adds good batting in between starts...how can that not be viewed as highly valuable?

He's looked very good so far, I hope he keeps it up. This is fun to watch.
W
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AG
he'll get the "novelty" vote. Kind of like Ichiro did in 2001
TXAggie2011
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W said:

he'll get the "novelty" vote. Kind of like Ichiro did in 2001


You don't think that stuff on its own is worthy of consideration? You don't think Ichiro in 2001 was worthy in his own right for consideration?

Not meaning to sound stand off-ish but just curious what your position is.
DrZ
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Those stats would have him 10-15 in pitching and 75-100 in hitting. Not MVP on my card.
titanmaster_race
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10 games into a 162 game season. I don't care who we're talking about. It's way too damn early.
astros4545
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titanmaster_race said:

10 games into a 162 game season. I don't care who we're talking about. It's way too damn early.


My bad

Someone tell the a&m football board to quit talking, the season doesn't start for 5 months
TXAggie2011
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AG
It's a damn message board.
astros4545
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Ultimately

If he puts up the stats I listed in the OP, is there any chance he doesn't lead the league in WAR?
TXAggie2011
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AG
His WAR will probably be pretty close to the league lead with those numbers.
MelvinUdall
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I think we are are 10 games in and once their is a true book on him his numbers will look dramatically different than what you are suggesting
BowSowy
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AG
So how does WAR work for NL pitchers? Surely they don't add their batting WAR to their pitching WAR? Or do they get so few ABs that their batting WAR is inconsequential?
ORAggieFan
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BowSowy said:

So how does WAR work for NL pitchers? Surely they don't add their batting WAR to their pitching WAR? Or do they get so few ABs that their batting WAR is inconsequential?

It counts towards total WAR, but given the few at bats and the closeness in stats, it has minimal effect. One can also look only at offensive or defensive WAR.
E
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AG
Tyler White was the AL player of the week to start the 2016 season... he was in AAA by mid-June
Carlo4
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He seems to be the MVP first 2 weeks of the season.

He's on pace for 48 HR and win 20 games. That won't happen, but it will be fun to watch. All I heard out of spring training was that he would be in AAA, and he's off with a huge bang.

Psych
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AG
What's this kids contract like again?
Harry Dunne
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astros4545 said:

Thru 10 games, I feel he may have a real shot

What type of numbers do you think should get him serious consideration

15-7 with a 3.3 ERA
Hit .275 with 18 and 50 RBI

Assuming he starts batting in 80 games

Would that stat line garner MVP consideration

Interesting topic. Everyone is desperate to take cheap shots and be negative - don't let the haters bother you.

That stat line is definitely realistic but that makes him "just" a very good pitcher and very good hitter. Where it's tough for him is that so few pitchers win the MVP - Verlander and Kershaw are the only ones in the past 25 years.

I think he would have to be at or near a Cy Young caliber pitcher and then the hitting puts him over the top. All signs say that if he stays healthy there is no reason why it won't happen at some point but more than likely he hits a wall this season. Favorite for ROY for sure though.


Corporal Punishment
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If Willie Hernandez can win the 1984 MVP with 32 saves and 1.92 ERA, then sure, those numbers for Ohtani look MVP worthy in my eyes. (Yeah, I know, that was a lifetime ago.)

I'm a Rangers fan, but I gotta admit, I'd love to see this guy keep the train rolling.

Found this article on the worst ever MVP picks. LINK

Mother effer, never knew this:
Quote:

Mickey Cochrane of the Detroit Tigers won the MVP award in the American League in 1934 with a .320 batting average.

He also powered two homers and knocked in 76. He had 140 hits and scored 70 runs.

He didn't lead the league in anything.

Because the Yankees came in second that year, one of the biggest robberies in MLB history took place.

Lou Gehrig won the Triple Crown with an average of .363, while hitting 44 HR and driving in 165. Lou also led the league in OBP, slugging percentage, and total bases.

What a ripoff.

BowSowy
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AG
1934 AL MVP (Mickey Cochrane):

.320/.428/.412 140 H, 74 R, 2 HR, 75 RBI, 4.0 WAR

1934 5th place for AL MVP (Lou Gehrig):

.363/.465/.706 210 H, 128R, 49 HR, 166 RBI, 10.4 WAR

But the Tigers won 101 that year so it's clear why Cochrane won it.
TXAggie2011
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AG
The Cochrane-Gehrig episode is one of the great comebacks to the "Yankees win things because they're Yankees" argument.
ClassOf17
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Dude got lit up by the Sox. Couldn't find the zone at all and chased out of the game early.

It's just one start but he looked terrible.
strohag
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This is the big leagues. The more tape they get on him the better opposing teams will be prepared.
Faustus
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Kind of funny that Trout may end up being one of the top 5 players of all time, but now that Ohtani is there going both ways their park is packed and excitement is through the roof.

Baseball needs some novelty, as evidenced by this thread. Ohtani isn't even second on their team in WAR.
TXAggie2011
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It's tough sledding with WAR when Trout and Simmons are on your team and you don't play an every day defensive position.
W
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AG
as the end of April is approaching and the Ohtani hype is slowing down (thanks to a 4.43 ERA)...

it looks like it's going to be quite a race in the American League for MVP.

Gregorius currently in the lead with triple crown-type numbers: .356 BA, 10 HR, 30 RBI

Harry Dunne
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Pretty impressive so far. I'm especially surprised with his hitting and his power. Seems like more of a big deal was made of his pitching, but from the looks of it he could be a very good position player alone. It's a long season and I expect him to crash at some point but he obviously has the goods.

I know fantasy baseball projections are only slightly more accurate than going to a Harwin palm reader, but several sites I look at have him projected to finish somewhere around 14-7 with 170 Ks in 170 IP...and hit .280ish with 15-20 hr & 50ish RBI.

Any team in baseball would take either of those players, and to have both in one roster spot is amazing. IDK that he is yet more valuable than Mike Trout, but man if he stays healthy and can physically handle playing both roles it's not hard to see him running away with an MVP in the future.
Harry Dunne
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P.S. I just went back and reread OP predictions, if he fantasy guys are right you will be almost spot on. Nice work.
W
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AG
time to check in with the AL MVP race at the break. Here's how I would rank them:

1. Betts
2. Trout
3. Bregman
4. Martinez
5. Ramirez
6. Lindor

regarding Trout...he may lead the AL in WAR, but he probably won't have a meaningful AB after September 1st because the Angels are out of contention. That will hurt his chances if Betts, Bregman, and Martinez are leading their teams to 100 wins and the best records in baseball.

Interesting that the 2 seasons in which Trout won the MVP...he also reached the 100-RBI plateau. He'll need a big second half to reach 100.

Regarding Ramirez and Lindor...SoS isn't talked about much, but 57 games vs. the awful White Sox, Royals, and Tigers has to be taken into consideration
AustinAg2K
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No Altuve?
PacifistAg
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AG
AustinAg2K said:

No Altuve?
He's having his "worst" season since 2015. Granted, that just shows how amazing he's been, but leading the league in hits and nothing else probably won't get him in the top 5. He's 9th in WAR, and currently Trout, Ramirez and Betts all have more SB, BB, HR and RBI. He's also 15th in OPS. That doesn't mean he's not having a great year, but I think the fact that this is a "down" year compared to the past 2 seasons, other players are having huge seasons on contending teams, and his own teammate (Bregman) is arguably more deserving of MVP consideration this year will only make it that much harder to crack the top 5.

Again, not taking anything away from Altuve. The guy's "down" year is him batting .332 with a 4.4 WAR.
_lefraud_
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AG
It's a two man race, but it'll be interesting to see if Betts loses some votes to his teammate. Trout is turning into Lebron somewhat, he's the best player in the league every year, but that alone doesn't make him deserving of "most valuable". Difference being Lebron can single handling get his team to the postseason, where as Trout can't get up on the mound and pitch. I'd go with Betts if I had to choose today, and I'm a huge Trout fan.
Ag_07
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It's so weird with how GD good Trout is but I honestly feel without him they still finish about where they are now. Not as bad as the Rangers but at the bottom of the division.

For some reason I just don't think he as valuable to that team as Betts or some of the others are.
_lefraud_
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It all depends on how you view or determine "value" . WAR is about the best there is, which has its flaws, but take Trout out of that lineup, and I believe they would be worse than the Rangers. In terms of stats, Trout definitely has the "value" but obviously that doesn't translate to wins, because that's not how baseball works.

Assuming Betts continues after the break, it's gotta be his to lose.
PacifistAg
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Agreed. If he finishes 2nd in MVP voting this year, I believe he'll tie Ted Williams and Stan Musial for most 2nd place finishes in MVP voting at 4...in his age-27 season. That's just insane to me, but this will happen as long as he plays on teams that fail to make the playoffs.
W
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AustinAg2K said:

No Altuve?
the American League is just so stacked with talent compared to the National.

Altuve, Judge, and Machado would be top 3 or the flat out favorite in the NL right now. The imbalance is crazy between the 2 leagues
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