https://baseballhall.org/hof/2018-bbwaa-ballot

First Timers:
Chris Carpenter
Johnny Damon
Livan Hernandez
Orlando Hudson
Aubrey Huff
Jason Isringhausen
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Carlos Lee
Brad Lidge
Hideki Matsui
Kevin Millwood
Jamie Moyer
Scott Rolen
Johan Santana
Jim Thome
Omar Vizquel
Kerry Wood
Carlos Zambrano

Agreed. The only ones that have a shot, other than Chipper, are Santana, Vizquel and Thome.

Those others will just steal votes for 5 years before they get dropped off the ballot.

Chipper and Thome. Not Vizquel. I get he played a great defensive SS but he was worse than awful at the plate. His OPS+ was 82. 14 seasons it was below 75 and 8 it was actually below 70. He only has 2 seasons where it was even above 100. He had 8 seasons where his WAA was actually negative. Hell he had 4 seasons where his WAR was negative.

I think you're being a bit harsh for a guy who hit 10 points higher than 1st ballot Ozzie Smith. I'm not sure I'd put him in, but something should be said for being the absolute best defensive shortstop for an entire decade, especially considering some of his counterparts (Arod, Ripken, Nomar, Jeter).

Thome had 6 seasons with an OPS over 1000, and he's 18th all-time for OPS. I think his 8 year stretch from 95-02, along with 600+ homers and playing for some good Indian teams will get him in, eventually.

mathguy86 said:

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Chipper and Thome. Not Vizquel. I get he played a great defensive SS but he was worse than awful at the plate. His OPS+ was 82. 14 seasons it was below 75 and 8 it was actually below 70. He only has 2 seasons where it was even above 100. He had 8 seasons where his WAA was actually negative. Hell he had 4 seasons where his WAR was negative.

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Three of those were at the tail end of his career when he failed to or barely played half the games in a season. Other than that one odd year, his prime was filled with pretty respectable WAR. I don't think he's a first ballot hall of famer, but I also think most of the guys voting on the hall of fame would have no idea what OPS+ is, let alone where Vizquel's ranks. He'll get in at some point, IMO.

Chipper and Thome will get in

One that intrigues me and will be interesting to watch is Andruw Jones. His .254 BA doesn't look very good but he has 434 HRs and 1289 RBIs with a couple of 120+ RBIs. Absolute stud in the field who in his prime had a WAR that hovered around 6-7.

I think he stands a good chance of eventually making it

Andruw Jones gets in and Dale Murphy doesn't? Don't see that ever happening. Murph won 2 MVP's. Similar stats.

Jamie Moyer had a nice stretch from '96 - '03, right in the heart of the steroid era.

What Moyer did and how he did it was amazing. He should be in the Hall of no athletic ability yet still had amazing career.

9th year on ballot for the greatest DH of all time. Hoping for a big push into the 70s followed by getting in on final attempt.

ORAggieFan said:

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What Moyer did and how he did it was amazing. He should be in the Hall of no athletic ability yet still had amazing career.

9th year on ballot for the greatest DH of all time. Hoping for a big push into the 70s followed by getting in on final attempt.

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David Ortiz hasn't been retired that long

I liked Damon. But no way he gets in, right? He was a good player that happened to play for the Bosox and the Yankees.

Correct.

Furlock Bones said:

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I liked Damon. But no way he gets in, right? He was a good player that happened to play for the Bosox and the Yankees.

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Damon was on the trajectory to be close. Something like 2500 hits by age 36. So play 4-5 more years and get 100-125 hits/year, make the magic 3000 and get a plaque. He fell off the face of the earth. Played only 2 more seasons and ended at 2769 hits. The rest of his stats are basically "an average to better than average player that played for a very long time". Career OPS+ of 104.

yes, Thome will probably get in eventually.

just after living thru the steroid era, I have a much, much, much greater appreciation for all-around players that have 3, 4, or 5-tools (like Chipper). And much less appreciation for guys that just hit a lot of home runs and strike out a ton

Chipper was over .400 career OBP. Pretty amazing. He was the Mike Piazza of 3rd basemen defensively, but he was always serviceable.

Like others have said, Chipper is the only sure thing on that list. I think Thome and Omar Visquel will get in as well but probably close. Thome is always a fun trivia piece for people when talking about top 10 all time HR leaders. Not one that comes to many people's minds.

A couple other things jump out:

• I dont understand how someone like Aubrey Huff made it on the ballot. The guy was a serviceable at best.
• I had no idea that Zambrano, Lidge, Matsui, and Santana had been out of the league for 5 years. Seems much more recent than that

mathguy86 said:

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Chipper and Thome. Not Vizquel. I get he played a great defensive SS but he was worse than awful at the plate. His OPS+ was 82. 14 seasons it was below 75 and 8 it was actually below 70. He only has 2 seasons where it was even above 100. He had 8 seasons where his WAA was actually negative. Hell he had 4 seasons where his WAR was negative.

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Vizquel is a HoF lock. If not in 2018, 2019.

I believe he is #2 in GP by a Vz born player. Also either #1 or #2 (Cabrera) in terms of hits.

Huff did finish 7th in mvp voting one year, which is mind blowing.

As addressed earlier, there's got to be some way to set a standard to filter out guys who have ZERO shot of making it in. Why have them on the ballot at all?

DallasAg 94 said:

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mathguy86 said:

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Chipper and Thome. Not Vizquel. I get he played a great defensive SS but he was worse than awful at the plate. His OPS+ was 82. 14 seasons it was below 75 and 8 it was actually below 70. He only has 2 seasons where it was even above 100. He had 8 seasons where his WAA was actually negative. Hell he had 4 seasons where his WAR was negative.

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Vizquel is a HoF lock. If not in 2018, 2019.

I believe he is #2 in GP by a Vz born player. Also either #1 or #2 (Cabrera) in terms of hits.

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Since when does # games played had anything to do with HOF qualification? And he played for 22 years. Of course he managed to accumulate hits. A .272 hitter will manage that over 22 years. But you have to be looking at him through some strange glasses if you think he is in any way shape or form a good hitter. Or even an average hitter. He was an awful hitter.

He may make it in because voters perceive him to be a defensive genius. But he's far from a lock. To get in in 2018 or 19 he would have to poll in the 50% or higher range this year. I just don't see it.

I figure Hoffman and Vlad will get over the hump this year, and Chipper has to be a lock too. I'd like to see Edgar Martinez sneak in too. Thome will probably have to wait a year or two.

He definitely wasn't good, probably not even average, but in no way is a lifetime (22 year career) .272 hitter considered "awful".

_lefraud_ said:

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He definitely wasn't good, probably not even average, but in no way is a lifetime (22 year career) .272 hitter considered "awful".

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Fair enough. "Awful" is harsh. But he was not good. OPS+ of 82. Basically 20% below league average. That's not good. JAWS of 36, WAR of 45.3 and WAR7 of 26.7. Those last 3 rank him between mid 40's and mid 60s for SS and realistically he would be the worst offensive SS elected in at least 50 years, Notwithstanding guys who got in via the Veterans Committee. Comparisons to guys playing beforee WW2 isn't really fair. Does his defense make up for being that weak of a hitter? I just don't see it. And as flawed as defensive metrics are they don't show it either. Smith had a "runs saved" metric of like 250. Vizquel is half that.

For comparison, the poster child for SS who couldnt get elected, I give you Alan Trammel, who had an OPS+ of 110, WAR of 70.4, WAR7 of 44.7 and JAWS of 57.5. The average for HOF SSs is WAR of 66.7, WAR7 of 42.8 and JAWS of 54.8.

I just don't see how he gets elected.

Edit: the Veterans Committee elected Luis Aparicio, so anything is possible

Damon was a pretty good player who is underrated by some people because he played for the Red Sox and Yankees as much as some people overrate him because he played for the Red Sox and Yankees. In other words, it's easy to do what was done above.

But he's not someone I'd put in the Hall of Fame.


Vizquel is a close call, and he's a guy who could get in because he's one of the all time defenders. It won't be, or shouldn't be, because he played a lot of games. He wasn't an awful hitter, he was a fine hitter, occassionaly he was an excellent hitter when you considering how well he ran the bases.

This depends on whether you'll put in a guy who was an all-time great at something even though he lacks an all-around resume.

It's funny to look at some of the nominations over the years. In 2006, Hal Morris was nominated and received 5 votes. He had 1200 hits and 76 HRs for his career. Only had more than 60 RBIs twice in his career (78 and 80 RBI in those seasons). No All-Star games.

I am a huge Omar fan. I can't believe people here think he is HoF material. Jamie Moyer (way different position, but both former Mariners so I will compare) is more deserving. IMO, neither should and will get in.

Thome is fringe. Great offensive numbers, but considering the era not amazing.

Omar is one of the best defensive shortstops to EVER play the game. That alone should get him into the conversation.

As for Moyer, he belongs in the hall of very reliable.

Ballots are no longer secret. All ballots will be released 7 days after voting ends. Hopefully that will minimize idiocy. It won't stop it but it should at least curtail it.

mathguy86 said:

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Ballots are no longer secret. All ballots will be released 7 days after voting ends. Hopefully that will minimize idiocy. It won't stop it but it should at least curtail it.

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That proposal was rejected by the HOF board of directors. Only those writers wishing to make their ballot public (there's a box to check on their ballot this year) will have their's done so.

I thought the HOF directors were the ones that stipulated the requirement. Did they reverse their decision?

mathguy86 said:

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I thought the HOF directors were the ones that stipulated the requirement. Did they reverse their decision?

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I'm trying to find the article where it mentioned it more in depth. So far all I can find are references to the decision, but no more than a sentence or two.

Chipper is a lock.
Thome will get in.
Omar vizquel will probably make it in.

The one name that I saw a piece about was Rolen... but I think he is hall of really good