Carlos Beltran - HOF?

1,894 Views | 20 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by Furlock Bones
Farmer1906
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My gut feeling is no without looking at the numbers, but I am open to having my opinion changed.

Games: 2586
At bats: 11,031
Average: .279
On Base: .350
Slugging: .486
OPS: .836
Hits: 2725
Runs: 1582
Runs Batted In: 1587
Home Runs: 435
WAR: 69.8
JAWS: 57.1
wRC+: 118
Awards: 9x All-Star, Rookie of the Year, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, 7x MVP vote received (highest - 4th, med - 20th)

To me, he's right on the border. Hall of Very Very Good. He had longevity so the counting numbers are solid. He played a hell of a CF for a good chunk of his career. He was probably the best (overall) CF in during his prime. That may be enough though he didn't strike me a hitter to be feared. If you add in his postseason #s then he may be a yes vote. I waiver back and forth.

W
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what cap would he wear going in?

that's kind of one of the issues --- he moved around a lot for a great player
W
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as mentioned...only finishing once in the top 5 of MVP voting during a 20-year career...and only twice in the top 15 of MVP voting in 20 years...is rather underwhelming.

for a quick comparison...Vlad Guerrero...won an MVP...and finished in the top 5 a total of four times. Finished in the top 10...a total of six times
Farmer1906
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I would think Mets, but who knows.

To me Vlad is in. I would take Vlad over Carlos easily.
astros4545
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Not sure if he deserves to get in

But I guarantee he will get in
W
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yes, he will get to wait a while
BarryProfit
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Carlos Beltrn's 435 career HR were the 4th-most by a switch hitter, behind Hall-of-Famers Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray, and Chipper Jones, eligible for the 1st time next year.
Mathguy64
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5 years from now the really old crusty writers will almost all be off the books so who knows what the voting will look like then.

My gut tells me he's the Hall of Very good but that he doesnt make it. If he does its a last year kind of push. His Black Ink and Gray Ink scores are not really close. His WAR and peak WAR are right at the edge. Sabermetric guys will favor him over old school beat writers.
Mr.Ackar07
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Just to expand a bit:

Games: 2586
At bats: 11,031
Average: .279
On Base: .350
Slugging: .486
OPS: .836
Hits: 2725 - (61st all time)
Doubles: 565 - (27th all time)
Runs: 1582 - (53rd all time)
Runs Batted In: 1587 - (41st all time)
Home Runs: 435 - (46th all time)
Extra Base Hits: 1,078 - (24th all time)
Stolen Bases: 312 - (3rd best SB% of all time)
WAR: 69.8
JAWS: 57.1
wRC+: 118



Only 6 Centerfielders with a higher career WAR: Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Griffey, DiMaggio)

I think it would be a toss up between a Royals or Mets hat.
Farmer1906
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Care to do WAR7 for CFers?

Edit: Found it.

Carlos falls down to 10th behind Mays, Cobb, Mantle, Speaker, Trout, Griffey, DiMaggio, Snider, & Jones.
Bobby Petrino`s Neckbrace
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What other .279 hitters are in the Hall of Fame?

Honest question, too lazy to look it up.
Farmer1906
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Ozzie .262 is the lowest that comes to mind.
_lefraud_
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Several, Beltran's BA won't keep him out of the hall. If he's left out, it'll probably be a combination of playing in KC and then bouncing around teams after the Mets.

I think he's a hall of famer, especially if you compare him to some of the guys already in. In the era of free agency, I don't think playing for too many teams should count against a guy who played almost 20 seasons.
TXAggie2011
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I'm not saying he should be left out but if he's left out, I think it will be that nothing is truly spectacular. It's a very good for a long time resume.

A good, not great for average hitter with good, not great power. Good, not great defense.

He had one or two monster years and we'll just see if voters pay them much attention.
W
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Joe Morgan was a career .271 hitter, but middle infielders tend to be graded on a curve.

and of course Morgan had that amazing 5-year stretch in the mid-70's with the Big Red Machine
TXAggie2011
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Joe Morgan played in a different era, was voted in in a different era, and did some things ecceptionally well in a way Beltran hasn't.

Not sure that's going to be all that predictive here.
94chem
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Quote:

for a quick comparison...Vlad Guerrero...won an MVP...and finished in the top 5 a total of four times. Finished in the top 10...a total of six times
Vlad was just an offensive wrecking ball. .318 career BA, .931 career OPS, about 100 points higher than Beltran. Beltran had >300 SB, but Vlad was no slouch either - 181 SB.

Andre Dawson is a better comparison to Beltran - eerily similar stats. Check out Hawk's gawdy SB numbers in the early 80's...game was different back then.

Hawk
Ag_07
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I'd say Vlad was more than just an offensive wrecking ball.

Dude had an absolute cannon.
94chem
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Quote:

I'd say Vlad was more than just an offensive wrecking ball.
You misunderstood what I said. Remove the emphasis from "just" (IOW don't interpret as meaning "only") and re-read.
cc10106
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Yes, he is HOF-worthy and one the greatest postseason hitters and five-tool players to play the game.
Ag13
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Postseason numbers will put him over the edge IMO. Will probably take several tries.
Furlock Bones
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He gets in. Should wear a Stros hat.
aka Sloan Kettering aka Lazlo Hollyfeld
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