https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/

Awesome read by Nate Silver over at 538 on the save and how to make a more relevant statistic.

Had meant to post this. So dead on. Can't believe with our metrics today managers were more intelligently using elite bullpen arms in the 70s than now.

Will be interesting if players start using stats like this in arbitration.

I like it

Also loved the "blown goose".

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managers are trying to maximize the number of saves for their closer, as opposed to the number of wins for their team

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This is what has always bothered me.

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Managers seem so conditioned by the "only use your closer in the ninth inning with a lead" heuristic that they often use their closers in the ninth inning when their team leads by more than three runs, which is a not a save situation and is even more of a waste of the closer's supposed talent.

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Amen.

ORAggieFan said:

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Had meant to post this. So dead on. Can't believe with our metrics today managers were more intelligently using elite bullpen arms in the 70s than now.

Will be interesting if players start using stats like this in arbitration.

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Very surprising, especially the comment about Football and going for it on 4th down. I refuse to believe that Closers are such unique swiss time pieces that they can't throw 30 pitches instead of 15.

Another part of the problem regarding closer's pitching the 9th, is that without the statistical framework to understand everything and view the big picture, the leverage of that inning is going to be vastly over-inflated in people's minds (fans, players, media). So if, for instance, AJ Hinch brings on Will Harris because he's got a 3 run lead in the 9th instead of Giles or Gregerson, and Harris happens to get knocked around (as every picther will from time to time), he's gonna get crucified for not having his best pitcher in for the biggest inning whether that was actually the most high leverage inning or not.

Very interesting article, great read!

great article.

glad to see Silver getting back to sports...and not politics (he doesn't have much credibility left there)

just about all of this can be blamed on the late 1980's Oakland A's manager and pitching coach. They started it.

also this is why I could not vote for Trevor Hoffman in the Hall of Fame

W said:

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great article.

glad to see Silver getting back to sports...and not politics (he doesn't have much credibility left there)

just about all of this can be blamed on the late 1980's Oakland A's manager and pitching coach. They started it.

also this is why I could not vote for Trevor Hoffman in the Hall of Fame

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Larussa? And are you talking about eckersley?

Yah, not sure why silver loses political credibility

He sucked during the GOP primary

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also this is why I could not vote for Trevor Hoffman in the Hall of Fame

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So he's 7th in goose eggs vs. 2nd in saves. Still seems like HOF material to me.

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So he's 7th in goose eggs vs. 2nd in saves. Still seems like HOF material to me.

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And there's the unknown with Rivera: How many MORE goose eggs would they have gotten had they been deployed "correctly"? (obviously unknownable, but you can't say it would have been zero either)

JJxvi said:

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W said:

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glad to see Silver getting back to sports...and not politics (he doesn't have much credibility left there)

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Only because unlike politics where political parties increasingly feel like they can only deal in shades of black and white, some sports fans have at least some semblance of an understanding of probability and statistics, especially baseball fans.

538 gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning. So...thats means Trump's expected batting average was .286...and he got a hit. A .286 hitter getting a hit in a particular at bat is not a shocking outcome.

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THIS...

I agree with the approach of using your best in high leverage situations vs. slotted for the 9th no matter what. That said, when comparing across eras, I see this goose-egg stat as something that does more to marginalize the Joe Nathans and Billy Wagners vs. something that brings down the Mariano Riveras and Trevor Hoffmans.

I think this analysis just supports the case that Rivera and Hoffman were badasses whose accomplishments are worthy in any era. And to the point above, they both probably could have had their goose egg total run up further if they were used in a few more 8th inning 1 run games vs 9th inning 3 run games. But both guys put up impressive totals regardless of the lens you look at them through.

This article is awesome.

They're talking about it on MLB network right now

They have Mariano as The most in goose eggs all time though

And goose is 3rd

Closer usage makes about as much sense as batting Rickey Henderson 9th.

That actually isn't the worst spot to
Put him because if he gets on you will have the top of the lineup coming (your best hitters)

Except that Henderson was top 50 all time in OBP, I think. You want that guy getting extra at bats compared to what he'd usually get in the 9 hole on average over 182 games. I think a guy hitting 1st gets something like 150 more at bats a season than the last batter.

Speaking of, and not to derail the thread, but i was looking up OBP stats just now, and Joey Votto has been 1st or 2nd in the NL since his rookie season, where he was 4th. He's .424 over his career, which is good enough for top 15 all time. He's also at the top in walks collected. Not to mention that he slugs .536. That gives him a career OPS near 1.000.

Anyway, long story short, Joey Votto looks like a hall of famer. I followed him for FBB purposes but could never get him, and as an AL guy I've overlooked how good that dude really is.

There's 162 games not 182 and also I wasnt advocating to put him in that spot in the lineup I was just saying its not terrible. That's why Joe maddon sometimes bats the pitcher 8th because the 9th is his second lead off

MW03 said:

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Speaking of, and not to derail the thread, but i was looking up OBP stats just now, and Joey Votto has been 1st or 2nd in the NL since his rookie season, where he was 4th. He's .424 over his career, which is good enough for top 15 all time. He's also at the top in walks collected. Not to mention that he slugs .536. That gives him a career OPS near 1.000.

Anyway, long story short, Joey Votto looks like a hall of famer. I followed him for FBB purposes but could never get him, and as an AL guy I've overlooked how good that dude really is.

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Honestly the best pure hitter I've seen. Others have more power, etc... But Votto is a hitter. His tools and mental makeup are the best of this generation imo. If anyone had a chance to hit .400 this era, it would be him. Hell, he hit .408 post-ASB last year.



As to the point of the article, I love that we're starting to see top relievers used in high leverage situations outside of the 9th more often. Crazy to see how much a game that's been around for so long still changes as perceptions change over time.

I agree that I'd rather see the best reliever come in a 1 run game in the 7th with men on base as opposed to saving a 3 run lead in the ninth.

That said, the other side to the coin is that some pitchers don't seem to be capable of handling the pressure of coming in to finish off a game.

russ05 said:

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That said, the other side to the coin is that some pitchers don't seem to be capable of handling the pressure of coming in to finish off a game.

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That's true, but if they can't handle the pressure of a 3 run lead in the ninth, are they really going to be better coming in to the 7th with the tying run on third? You should put your best pitcher in if the game is on the line. Managers believe this, too, during the post season. It's not uncommon for the closer to come in during the 7th or 8th in the playoffs. During the regular season, though, it's all about the 9th.

I've always thought the save is a stupid stat. Or at least a misnamed stat. Here's a situation. You've got a guy come into a one run game in the 8th with the bases loaded and no outs, facing the 4, 5, and 6 hitter. He strikes out the side and doesn't allow a run. Then you've got a guy come into the 9th with no one on facing the 7, 8, and 9 guy. Who really saved the game? It was the guy in the 8th.

The only stat dumber than the save is the hold. You could have a guy come in with a six run lead, give up five runs and get pulled with the bases loaded. He gets a hold. Then the next comes in gets a ground ball and the SS boots it, and now he gets a blown save, even though it was really the guy before him that blew the game.

AustinAg2K said:

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russ05 said:

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That said, the other side to the coin is that some pitchers don't seem to be capable of handling the pressure of coming in to finish off a game.

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That's true, but if they can't handle the pressure of a 3 run lead in the ninth, are they really going to be better coming in to the 7th with the tying run on third? You should put your best pitcher in if the game is on the line. Managers believe this, too, during the post season. It's not uncommon for the closer to come in during the 7th or 8th in the playoffs. During the regular season, though, it's all about the 9th.

I've always thought the save is a stupid stat. Or at least a misnamed stat. Here's a situation. You've got a guy come into a one run game in the 8th with the bases loaded and no outs, facing the 4, 5, and 6 hitter. He strikes out the side and doesn't allow a run. Then you've got a guy come into the 9th with no one on facing the 7, 8, and 9 guy. Who really saved the game? It was the guy in the 8th.

The only stat dumber than the save is the hold. You could have a guy come in with a six run lead, give up five runs and get pulled with the bases loaded. He gets a hold. Then the next comes in gets a ground ball and the SS boots it, and now he gets a blown save, even though it was really the guy before him that blew the game.

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The pitcher "Win" and "Loss" is just as dumb as a hold.

I agree for a relief pitcher the W/L is a worthless stat, but I still think it holds value for a starter. There are of course exceptions, but generally the guys with the most W's are some of the best starters in baseball.

AustinAg2K said:

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I agree for a relief pitcher the W/L is a worthless stat, but I still think it holds value for a starter. There are of course exceptions, but generally the guys with the most W's are some of the best starters in baseball.

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Over the coit's if a career things mostly even out, but it's a worthless stat. A pitcher can't account for scoring runs, defense behind him or the dimensions of the ballpark.

ORAggieFan said:

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AustinAg2K said:

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I agree for a relief pitcher the W/L is a worthless stat, but I still think it holds value for a starter. There are of course exceptions, but generally the guys with the most W's are some of the best starters in baseball.

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Over the coit's if a career things mostly even out, but it's a worthless stat. A pitcher can't account for scoring runs, defense behind him or the dimensions of the ballpark.

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W said:

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great article.

glad to see Silver getting back to sports...and not politics (he doesn't have much credibility left there)

just about all of this can be blamed on the late 1980's Oakland A's manager and pitching coach. They started it.

also this is why I could not vote for Trevor Hoffman in the Hall of Fame

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His article concludes that Hoffman is the second most valuable reliever if the "goose" stat is analyzed versus traditional save stat, so not sure how this article could be used as support for not voting for Hoffman in the Hall of Fame. If anything, it proves that voting for Hoffman is the right thing.