Big Al 1992 said:

---

Maybin for Reddick????

---

Buck Compton said:

---

Bassmaster said:

---

k20dub said:

---

"It's really strange," he said. "A lot of the action is coming from a big bettor all over town and all the bookmakers are talking about it."

"You mean the mattress king," I asked.

"Well, I can't really speculate, but"

Mattress Mack really is spreading cash all over town and, every time the books get some Dodgers money to balance out their rolls, it seems he's coming in and making the line go cuckoo.

But wait. As I was recording with Scooch, Darren Rovell of ESPN fame texted me with a link that read, "Here's something for your newsletter."

I clicked, and it was this gem from Rovell and ESPN's David Purdum, reporting that ticket brokers are unloading on the Astros, to hedge against any potential Game 7 losses. In total, they wrote, "there is more than $20 million in profits on the line in Game 6." Johnny Avello, bookmaker at The Wynn, said in the story that brokers have been betting $200,000-$300,000 on past games in the series. "And that's just me," he said. "I assume they are spreading it all over town."

So, aside from the game-clinching storylines, you have a whole lot of hedges to talk about with your friends. And, for the record, Scooch also noted that the bettors have been on the right side of every game so far in this series. And, tonight, they are on the Astros and ace Justin Verlander.


My buddy was in line behind Mattress Mack in one of the sports books in Vegas last Thursday (after game 2). He snapped a picture of Mack at the betting counter carrying a backpack. I couldn't believe that he doesn't solely use insurance to hedge. I guess he actually was betting on the games.

---

---

Specialty insurance is going to be under-written at a huge premium, as there is no pool over which to spread risk and outcomes. Casinos will be the more efficient method, as they are balancing risk by moving the lines and have much more information than an insurance underwriter will. Under the right circumstances, you can leverage with betting more efficiently than with insurance.

Now though? Unlikely. I think these are just real bets he is making. The ticket brokers are the real hedges.

Futures bets at the Casino when we were opening the season at 12-to-1 (+1200) would have been cheaper than any insurance policy he could buy. Even the 9-to-2 (+450) odds at the start of the playoffs might have been better than insurance. Not now though.

---

Big Al 1992 said:

---

Maybin for Reddick????

---

aTm2004 said:

---

So what happens if they lose...hypothetically speaking of course.

He keeps his $10mm from sales and loses it on the bet, this a net zero?

---

CT75 said:

---

Beat40 said:

---

iBrad said:

---

Oh, and limit the walks. 12 of LA's 30 runs have gotten on via the walk. For the good guys, it's 4 of 28.

---

That's insane that nearly 50% of their runs we have not made them work for. Yup, attack the zone - I'd rather get beat with hits than with walks.

---

I've always wondered about how much a manager "coaches or talks to a player/team" before a game at the Major League level.

Does he sit down with Verlander and tell him....."look JV the walks have been killing us this series ..... DONT WALK ANYONE"

Do they sit down with the batters and say......"look guys we need to be patient and work this pitcher....just put the bat on the ball and put it in play"

OR do they just assume these guys already know all this stuff and keep their mouths shut?????

---

aTm2004 said:

---

WelchAg said:

---

maca1028 said:

---

I've turned on ESPN several times this morning because mlb network has been on rerun and not once have they discussed the WS. Outside the Lines started with their "big story" Zeke Elliot's suspension.

---

I listened to the around the horn segment yesterday. If anyone is in the mood to get all pissed off, watch the part where they are talking about game 5. I kid you not, the entire panel talked about how LA lost the game and gave absolutely zero credit to the Astros. Tony Reali took points away from everyone because nobody gave the Astros credit and they STILL didn't give us an ounce of love. THEN they proceeded to talk about how ridiculous is was the Yuli was not suspended for the World Series. I mean my god that network has become pure and utter trash.

---

I was listening to MLB Radio on Sirius yesterday and they got into that discussion again. Can't remember the show or the hosts, but one of the guys was in the "suspend him for 1 WS game" camp while the other was in the "he shouldn't be suspended at all" camp. His reasoning was pretty solid. It was that it took place in the dugout with his teammates, and wasn't directed toward Yu or in public. He stated that if MLB starts suspending players for what goes on in the dugout during a game, then there wouldn't be a team to field.

---

backintexas2013 said:

---

After game one he was getting +240 on the Stros. So he wouldn't have to bet the 10 million.

---

n_touch said:

---

Long day. Nothing getting done, so I sacrificed another scrap piece to the Jobu.

---

Ag_07 said:

---

I'd be OK with pitching Gregerson only if we have at least a 3 run lead.

I don't want him pitching in a 2 run game where a walk and a bomb can tie it up.

3 runs or more and I'm fine with it

---