Does anybody alive still believe in Luhnow?

21,612 Views | 118 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by W
knoxtom
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Bear in mind we picked number one overall three consecutive years and another year we picked 1.2 and 1.5

We have Marisnik, Tucker, White, Valbuena, Kratz, and Fields on the active roster even though none are a MLB level player.

We have very little in the minors except a guy who has been there less than a year (Bregman) and a good surprise in Reed. Despite all these really high picks our system is rather bare.

Two of our three 1,1's are no longer with the team four years later and the list of players skipped to pick those 1,1's is astounding.

We gave half our farm system for Ken "and its gone" Giles and the other half for freaking Carlos swing and a miss Gomez.

I know everyone blames Hinch for his insipid lineups and insistence on resting whoever is the hottest player, but this guy Luhnow is a complete and total baseball idiot.

How could anyone have f'd this up so completely and so quickly. The Astros aren't playing bad, they are bad.

Phil Garner
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You are dumb.

hth
Ag_07
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AG
Lunhow is not without blame but to call him a complete idiot and f'ing this up is dumb.


Forum Troll
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Hindsight is 20/20 but there are some big "what if" type things that have occurred.

Giles trade (although I think he'll turn it around)
Gomez trade
Appel pick (I know that even the Cubs had Appel number 1)
Fowler trade
TXAggie2011
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It's too early in the season to be having this discussion, however...

It's not dumb to question a GM if 5 years into their service the team is has the second-worst record in the league.

The promise was to build a base of youthful talent and the build around that base once it had some experience. Many young guys now have some years under them, the team is spending money on free agents again...and the team so far has stunk.

Again, too early in the season but if they continue to struggle, you have to start asking questions.
Ag_07
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quote:
It's too early in the season to be having this discussion, however...

It's not dumb to question a GM if 5 years into their service the team is has the second-worst record in the league.

The promise was to build a base of youthful talent and the build around that base once it had some experience. Many young guys now have some years under them, the team is spending money on free agents again...and the team so far has stunk.

Again, too early in the season but if they continue to struggle, you have to start asking questions.

Exactly who have they spent money on?

Feldman? Fister? They're bargain bin cheapskates and this regime has yet to bring in any decent talent to surround their homegrown talent like Altuve, Springer, Correa, Dallas, etc.
mhayden
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Keep in mind Astros were a year "ahead of schedule" last year in many people's eyes... and I doubt many fans were questioning the Lunhow tenure when he had the Astros in the playoffs and taking the (eventual WS champion) Royals to the wire.
titanmaster_race
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Not much talent in the minors?

Lol ok.
TXAggie2011
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Rasmus at $16 million

Feldman at $10 million

Fister at $7 million, will end up with $10+ after bonuses

Gomez at $9 million.


I'm not saying they're buying $20 million+ stars, but they're rolling out a $100 million roster.

That's not just a whole bunch but they're not rolling out what they did 3/4 years ago when you expect them to tank.

Ag_07
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quote:
Rasmus at $16 million - Technically a FA but he was the first player ever to sign a qualifying offer. I'm not convinced they wanted him to.

Feldman at $10 million - That's dirt effin cheap for a pitcher, even for a pitcher who has overall blown balls.

Fister at $7 million, will end up with $10+ after bonuses - That's also dirt cheap

Gomez at $9 million. - Not a FA signing

This team hates to spend
TXAggie2011
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And I've long questioned the financial direction of the team. I've still not totally bought into the narrative that the ownership intends to fully open their checkbooks on e the youth started to grow up. But we'll see.

That's said, it's somewhat irrelevant. if they're going to be a financially shrewd team, the GM has to be able to handle it. Even if Lungow wants to spend more, it doesn't mean he's the right man for this particular job if it won't let him spend more.


Anyway, $10 million is not dirt cheap for a pitcher. It's just about average for a free agent starting pitcher.

I think to some extent there is a limited sample of guys getting the 15.8 million qualifying offer for players with Rasmus' career. Only about 10-20 quitting offers are made a year for a reason.

Gomez was not a free agent, you're correct. Even better, they gave up more than just $9 million a year to get him. Free agent or not, it was a taking up of a veteran for a not-unsubstantial chunk of money.


The bottom line is wins. Either Lunhow is theh guy to operate under the Astros' budget or he's not.

Again, I think it's too early to be making a judgment on him.
irish pete ag06
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Luhnow has...


  • Drafted Carlos Correa, one of the best under 23 in the game.
  • Drafted Lance McCullers Jr, who's flashed 1/2 type stuff in his short career.
  • Drafted Preston Tucker and Tyler White who look like they will be above average hitters in their prime.
  • Plucked Collin McHugh off the scrap heap.
  • Still has the #3 ranked farm system according to John Sickels (even after trading all that talent last year for the playoff run)
  • Signed Jose Altuve to one of the most team friendly deals in the league.
  • Traded Brett Myers for Chris Devenski, who appears to have BOR stuff and at least be a good bullpen arm.
  • Plucked Will Harris off waivers (he's been an absolute workhorse in the pen).
  • This: http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/mlb-cost-per-win-by-season/2015/
  • Built the team that took the World Series champs to 1 damn out away from elimination.


But by all means. Losenow sucks. He's obviously a moron who needs to be replaced.
jckrjr7
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He's very good at building an organization. If I were Crane I'd take away his trading privledges and let someone else handle that.
Ag_07
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When people think Lunhow trades they think Gomez and Giles, but what about...

Marco Duarte for Marwin Gonzales - Marwin is a key pieces of this organization
Carlos Lee for Matt Dominguez/Rob Rasmussen - Moving Lee for anything was a huge accomplishment
Brett Meyers for Matt Heidenreich, Blair Walters, and Chris Devenski - Devenski looks to be a big league pitcher who could have a place with the club in the future
Bud Norris for LJ Hoes, Josh Hader, and a supplemental 1st round draft pick - Norris turned out to be a flop (he's about to be booted form the rotation in ATL) and that draft pick turned into Derek Fischer (I think but I could be mistaken)
Jared Cosart for Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick, and Frances Martes - Pretty good one here since Cosart has some serious health issues last I remember and Moran looks to be a solid prospect, Marisnick is a nice off the bench contributor, and Martes is thought to be one of the better prospects on the farm

He was essential in dumping a lot of the dead weight the Astros had when he took over (Lee, Meyers, Wandy Rodriguez, Wesley Wright) and turning it into a nice farm system. I think people forget how incredibly bad the farm system was until Lunhow got here. He turned some very meh older guys into one of the better farm systems.
knoxtom
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quote:
Luhnow has...


  • Drafted Carlos Correa, one of the best under 23 in the game.
  • Drafted Lance McCullers Jr, who's flashed 1/2 type stuff in his short career.
  • Drafted Preston Tucker and Tyler White who look like they will be above average hitters in their prime.
  • Plucked Collin McHugh off the scrap heap.
  • Still has the #3 ranked farm system according to John Sickels (even after trading all that talent last year for the playoff run)
  • Signed Jose Altuve to one of the most team friendly deals in the league.
  • Traded Brett Myers for Chris Devenski, who appears to have BOR stuff and at least be a good bullpen arm.
  • Plucked Will Harris off waivers (he's been an absolute workhorse in the pen).
  • This: http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/mlb-cost-per-win-by-season/2015/
  • Built the team that took the World Series champs to 1 damn out away from elimination.


But by all means. Losenow sucks. He's obviously a moron who needs to be replaced.

So let's look at those...

Correa is a nice player, but Lunhow also drafted Appel and Brady Aiken with the 1.1 One for three on number ones overall is awful, especially when the consensus number one in those drafts was better. Correa has worked out nicely.
McCullers is nice but he has 20 games under his belt and shoulder problems. Don.t make him into Clemens yet
Tucker is in the minors after going for .170, Tyler is hitting .230. Both are very negative defensive players with Tucker being historically bad defensively.
McHugh had a good year last year but would you really trust him in a playoff game? ERA sits around 5 right now.
The farm system will be dropped in the new rankings. Also, if you had the highest number of high picks in the history of the game wouldn't you expect to have a decent farm system? In fact, shouldn't it be much higher than it is?
Altuve's contract was right where it should have been, he has outplayed it
Devenski will be back in the minors soon enough, he is not special
Will harris has played great

And let's not forget these stellar decisions...
Scott Kazmir
Outright release of JD Martinez, you know the 38 homer, 100 rbi, gold glove runner up
Giles trade
Gomez trade
Deshields released
Foltynewicz for Gattis
Marisnick on the team (wouldn't you rather have Deshields in that role or any other player in the history of the game?)
Valbuena still plays
The backup catcher situation
The first base situation

Hate to break it to you all, but this is a BAD team. 3 guys hit over .240. Not a lot of pop, huge strikeout numbers, horrible baserunning, bad pitching, horrible defense. Clueless team that is being taught stats win games. Masters of the runners in scoring position, less than 2 outs strikeout.
CorpsAg11
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Lunhow is really good at drafting & player development, which was his role with the Cardinals. But I suspect he kind of sucks at negotiating and not getting fleeced in trades...
irish pete ag06
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(Takes a deep breath...)

quote:
but Lunhow also drafted Appel and Brady Aiken with the 1.1 One for three on number ones overall is awful, especially when the consensus number one in those drafts was better.


  • There was no consensus #1 in any of the 3 drafts that the Astros picked 1st.
  • The closest thing to a consensus #1 was Mark Appel. Even the *gasp* Cubs had him higher than the Astros on their board.
  • How in the world were the Astros supposed to know that Brady Aiken had that he ended up tearing in literally the first game he pitched in after he didn't sign with the Astros
  • They drafted Alex Bregman with the comp pick that they got for not signing Aiken. He's destroying AA now, and may even be up this year.

quote:
McCullers is nice but he has 20 games under his belt and shoulder problems. Don.t make him into Clemens yet

  • Never said that he was Clemens. You did.

quote:
Tucker is in the minors after going for .170, Tyler is hitting .230. Both are very negative defensive players with Tucker being historically bad defensively.

  • Both are still under a full season of plate appearances in the bigs. They have plenty of time to figure it out. Both are also still youngish.

quote:
McHugh had a good year last year but would you really trust him in a playoff game? ERA sits around 5 right now.

  • McHugh is off to a rough start but peripherals suggest he'll be ok. He's not an ace, but he's a solid #3.

quote:
The farm system will be dropped in the new rankings.

quote:
Altuve's contract was right where it should have been, he has outplayed it

  • Umm... I think you just inadvertently complimented Luhnow with that statement.

quote:
Devenski will be back in the minors soon enough, he is not special

  • He'll go back to the pen more likely. His stuff played up there.

quote:
Scott Kazmir

  • Trade didn't pay off, that's true, but it wasn't like the Astros were the only one after him.
  • Daniel Mengden may end up being a back of the rotation starter, but that's not too much to give up.
  • Jacob Nottingham is still young, but he's struggling at AA. His defense is going to be average at best. I think he was overrated and the Astros used that.

quote:
Outright release of JD Martinez, you know the 38 homer, 100 rbi, gold glove runner up

  • This one hurt, but at the time, I had no problem with them releasing him. He just figured it out.
  • Gold Glove is hilarious. Dude's defense is not very good. There's plenty of stats to back that up at fangraphs.

quote:
Giles trade

  • He's got 5 years to pan out. Waaaay too early to call this one.


quote:
Gomez trade

  • He's terrible, that's true, but they also got Fiers. This trade is yet to be determined also.


quote:
Deshields released

  • The same DeShields who just got sent to AAA. He wasn't released by the way. He was drafted in the Rule 5, not released. It happens when there's a 40-man roster crunch.

quote:
Foltynewicz for Gattis

  • Still too early to tell about this one, but I am glad to see Folty gone. That 2.89 ERA isn't going to last long.

quote:
Marisnick on the team (wouldn't you rather have Deshields in that role or any other player in the history of the game?)

  • I'm not Jake's biggest fan, but he is 10x the defender that DeSheilds is. He's perfect as a 5th OFer.

quote:
Valbuena still plays

  • Who do you replace him with? Bregman is playing 3rd in the minors as of a few days ago. He's not ready yet.

quote:
The backup catcher situation

  • Stassi and Gattis got hurt. That was the plan from the beginning. Kratz was an emergency.


quote:
The first base situation

  • The first base production has been league average. White still can develop into an above average hitter and they have the highest rated 1st base prospect in AJ Reed.



quote:
Hate to break it to you all, but this is a BAD team. 3 guys hit over .240. Not a lot of pop, huge strikeout numbers, horrible baserunning, bad pitching, horrible defense. Clueless team that is being taught stats win games. Masters of the runners in scoring position, less than 2 outs strikeout.

  • I agree that they are playing bad, but they have plenty of time to right the ship. Too early to say they are bad. They have PLAYED bad, but also PLAYED bad last year for stretches of time and got in.

irish pete ag06
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(removed:110205)
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quote:
And I've long questioned the financial direction of the team. I've still not totally bought into the narrative that the ownership intends to fully open their checkbooks on e the youth started to grow up. But we'll see.
Looks like the ownership intends to fully open their checkbooks. Another Cuban IF signed today.
irish pete ag06
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quote:
I know everyone blames Hinch for his insipid lineups and insistence on resting whoever is the hottest player, but this guy Luhnow is a complete and total baseball idiot.

How could anyone have f'd this up so completely and so quickly. The Astros aren't playing bad, they are bad.


Silent For Too Long
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This is rather enjoyable.

A lot of crow to be consumed in this thread. I was certainly disappointed as anyone at how the season started, but I wasn't about to bail on either JL or Hinch 6 weeks into the season. Luhnow has built this team patiently and brilliantly, and I don't think their is a better skipper in the game that balances modern money ball with traditional manager instincts and a players coach mentality then Hinch.

One of these days, some of you will begin to understand that baseball seasons are long, building franchises takes even longer, and Rome was not, as it turns out, built in a day.

JABQ04
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Sweet double play.
knoxtom
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Still stand by what I said. Hot streak aside, this is a deeply flawed team. Even if there is some young talent, there should be much more given drafting position. Still say lunhows trade record is dismal as well.
irish pete ag06
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quote:
Still stand by what I said. Hot streak aside, this is a deeply flawed team. Even if there is some young talent, there should be much more given drafting position. Still say lunhows trade record is dismal as well.


Dismal? Hyperbole much?
Cynical_Texan
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As a Rangers fan, Luhnow has my full support.


knoxtom
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Lunhow assembled a team in which 6 of 9 starters have averages below .230

I have never seen that in my life
knoxtom
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Am I still supposed to be eating crow?
W
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Luhnow will be on the hot seat in 2017 --- his 6th season as the GM
Farmer1906
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quote:
Lunhow assembled a team in which 6 of 9 starters have averages below .230

I have never seen that in my life
G. Springer, RF - .265 .365 .478 .842
A. Bregman, 3B - .229 .287 .381 .668
J. Altuve, 2B - .365 .428 .578 1.005
C. Correa, SS - .272 .365 .468 .833
E. Gattis, C - .240 .302 .460 .762
Y. Gurriel, DH - .500 .667 .500 1.167
A. Reed, 1B - .196 .299 .326 .625
M. Gonzalez, 1B - .246 .283 .405 .688
T. Hernandez, LF - .276 .382 .517 .900

Only 2/9 lately.
elchapo
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No
iBrad
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I still believe in Luhnow and I don't think his seat is even close to being warm. We made the playoffs last year, are still in the wild card race this year, and are stocked with a lot of young talent that is setting us up for a long stretch of success.

If you like to live in the moment and aren't a big picture type of person, I can understand your frustration. But when you evaluate the organization as a whole from when he got here to where we are now, it's night and day.

And by not making any irrational, knee-jerk signings last off season or any trades at the deadline, we are set up to pursue free agents and trades this off season where we'll have a much better understanding of our needs now that more of our top prospects have reached the big leagues.

And don't sleep on the Gurriel signing. I feel like that's overlooked by too many fans.
Sea Gull
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I still believe in him, but I think next year will tell us a lot.
zagman
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Luhnow has always been Notnow for obvious reasons. The Astros scouts don't have a clue and Notnow keeps them around. They miss so much local talent because they can't see the forest for the trees. The coaches including Hinch do not develop players and do not care if they win games or not. Hinch is always in Spring Training mode. Yet I do love and follow the Stros!
Full Speed Ahead - Fire At Will - Gig'em

"I have never enjoyed any position more than being president of Texas A&M University." Robert Gates 11/08/06
irish pete ag06
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quote:
Luhnow has always been Notnow for obvious reasons. The Astros scouts don't have a clue and Notnow keeps them around. They miss so much local talent because they can't see the forest for the trees. The coaches including Hinch do not develop players and do not care if they win games or not. Hinch is always in Spring Training mode. Yet I do love and follow the Stros!


You mean the scouts that have helped build the farm into one of the strongest in the league? That took Correa over Buxton? Are you serious?

He has the 24th highest payroll. His seat is not even remotely warm until the Astros start spending. Not even lukewarm.
Deluxe
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quote:
I still believe in him, but I think next year will tell us a lot.


Agreed. Big offseason for him and Crane
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