HOU@TEX Trash Talking Thread

424,364 Views | 3968 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Charlie Conway
Gigem Trevas
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The 2016 Texas Rangers are making history. Their 30-8 record in one-run games gives them a .789 winning percentage that, if it holds up, would set a record for the best winning percentage in one-run games since 1901. But the Rangers have a not-so-slight problem that could haunt them in the playoffs: performance in one-run games is almost entirely though not exclusively a matter of good timing and luck, not skill.
This quote has to be from Fangraphs, right?

No, that's way too anti-Rangers. Must be the Crawfish Boxes?


Wrong again.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-texas-rangers-are-making-unsustainable-history-in-one-run-games/

More numbers nerds who are just haters, right?


http://imgur.com/a/NkerQ
Great job refuting the article! I guess that was too many words for you eh?

Nope. I can't seem to figure out how to work Imgur nowadays.
irish pete ag06
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AG
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The 2016 Texas Rangers are making history. Their 30-8 record in one-run games gives them a .789 winning percentage that, if it holds up, would set a record for the best winning percentage in one-run games since 1901. But the Rangers have a not-so-slight problem that could haunt them in the playoffs: performance in one-run games is almost entirely though not exclusively a matter of good timing and luck, not skill.
This quote has to be from Fangraphs, right?

No, that's way too anti-Rangers. Must be the Crawfish Boxes?


Wrong again.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-texas-rangers-are-making-unsustainable-history-in-one-run-games/

More numbers nerds who are just haters, right?


http://imgur.com/a/NkerQ
Great job refuting the article! I guess that was too many words for you eh?

Nope. I can't seem to figure out how to work Imgur nowadays.
No luck involved working imgur. Pure skill.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
The MLB standings seem to be the best refutation.
Gigem Trevas
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So if the Rangers do sweep the Astros what will the narrative be?
irish pete ag06
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AG
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The MLB standings seem to be the best refutation.
Simple question. Do you think the 1-run game record is sustainable through 2017?
Gigem Trevas
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The MLB standings seem to be the best refutation.
Simple question. Do you think the 1-run game record is sustainable through 2017?

What team is exactly the same from year to year?
GrapevineAg
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AG
IDGAF if it is or not.
Player To Be Named Later
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AG
quote:
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The MLB standings seem to be the best refutation.
Simple question. Do you think the 1-run game record is sustainable through 2017?


Why the hell are you worried about 2017?

We will likely have Hamels and Darvish for a full season, good chance that JD works something for another pitcher this off season, we have Lucroy for the full season working with the pitchers, and I'm optimistic Desmond is extended.

No reason to assume the Rangers are going to have to lose their #3 and #4 starters to lengthy DL trips and roll with Martinez, Rodriguez, etc for a good stretch.



MooreTrucker
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AG
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The MLB standings seem to be the best refutation.
Simple question. Do you think the 1-run game record is sustainable through 2017?
Good lord, you sound like a lawyer. Taking any scenario and trying to twist it to fit the idea you're unsuccessfully trying to push. We're not talking about 2017. And really, no one has said it's sustainable, just that it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. The Rangers are in great shape to win the division and go far in the postseason. That's it.
aggietony2010
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AG
There are two things I especially hated about that 538 article.

1. The subtle implication that the Rangers have used their luck in one run games, and that they'll regress to .500. Even working under the assumption that 1 run games are complete luck, mean regression doesn't mean the rangers have a less than 50% chance of winning a one run game. In fact, any statistician worth their salt would estimate the probability of the Rangers winning any remaining one run games this season at AT LEAST 50%.

2. The premise that all runs are created equal.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
They'll win more games by more than 1 run.

Some of you geniuses seem to overlook this just as easily going the other direction. Those 1 run W's don't magically regress to losses. Many of them will shift to 2 run wins.
Corporal Punishment
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AG
There simply aren't enough games left in the season for their record to regress to .500 in one run games.

Even if they go .500 the rest of the way in one run games, they've defied the odds.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
6 out of 7 seasons of appearing in the postseason or at least making game 163. Some of you might want to stop waiting for the regression before you die of old age.

It's a well run organization that knows how to replenish and retain talent.
Cynical_Texan
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AG
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6 out of 7 seasons of appearing on the postseason or at least making game 163. Some of you might want to stop waiting for the regression before you die of old age.

It's a well run organization that knows how to replenish and retain talent.

And talent wants to play on the Rangers, unlike some other organizations.
We fixed the keg
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AG
quote:
The MLB standings seem to be the best refutation.


Sh $t already.....this times eleventy billion.

Call it what-ever-the-f--k you want.....the Rangers own the Lastros and keep winning despite whatever nerd/slide rule junky say it isnt possible.

Advice .... just because it hasnt happened, doesnt mean it cant.
akm91
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AG
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Call it what-ever-the-f--k you want.....the Rangers own the Lastros and keep winning despite whatever nerd/slide rule junky say it isnt possible.

2013: 17-2
2014: 8-11
2015: 13-6
2016: 11-2

Since Astros joined AL West, Rangers have 49-21 .700 winning % vs Astros.
ebdb_bnb
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Riveting info. Thanks for sharing.
hawk1689
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AG
A few comments regarding the one-run luck topic:

1) Weren't the Rangers supposed to regress to the mean about 15 one-run wins ago?

2) Much has been said in comparison of the Rangers to the 2012 Orioles and how they were "lucky" and their success would not be sustained. Well, the Orioles won a solid 85 games the next season and then won their division in 2014 with 96 wins. I would hardly call it regression for a wild card team to compete and then win the division the following two seasons.

3) With 30 one-run wins, the Rangers were better than the other team on each of those 30 nights. That is the point of playing these games. To be better than the other team each night. Good teams win close games.
ebdb_bnb
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No one is disputing that. However, you don't win so many of them without luck. Who do you consider to be the best team this year? Cubs?

hawk1689
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AG
I guess we'll find out in the World Series!

(This was way funnier before you edited the post above.)
747Ag
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AG
Re: luck

Consider the following numbers for the 2016 season to date...
  • Ranger hitters this season have an OPS of .742 with the bases empty, but they enjoy a modest bump with runners on base (.758) and runners in scoring position (.757). Yes, the league as a whole tends to hit better in such spots, but it's worth noting that Texas is no exception.
  • The Rangers have an overall OPS on offense of .749 this year, but in late-and-close game situations that figure goes up to .785.
  • In low-leverage situations -- i.e., spots that aren't all that important in terms of game outcomes -- the Rangers have an OPS of .717. In high-leverage situations -- i.e. spots we think of as being clutch -- the Rangers have an OPS of .794.
  • When the Rangers are behind, they have an OPS of .788, which helps explain how they've notched a whopping 39 comeback wins in 2016.
  • Add it all up, and FanGraphs' metrics deem the Ranger offense to be the most clutch in all of baseball, and it's not a particularly close race.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/clutch-hitting-has-rangers-on-pace-to-make-mlb-history-this-season/

Can some of the wins be attributed to luck? Sure. The walk-off hit-by-pitch immediately comes to mind.

Other thoughts... of the 39 comeback wins this season, how many were walk-off situations where the game necessarily ends after the one run advantage? And how many of them were not walk-off situations, wherein they played until 3 outs, thus providing more of a chance to garner a larger lead than one run?
The Shank Ag
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Sounds like those teams sometimes quit.
MooreTrucker
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AG
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Can some of the wins be attributed to luck? Sure. The walk-off hit-by-pitch immediately comes to mind.
And yet, had they not had runners in position, a HBP couldn't be a walk-off. So luck? Or creating the right circumstances?
ebdb_bnb
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How do they rank as an offense?
GrapevineAg
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AG
8.5 games ahead of Houston.
PacifistAg
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AG
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How do they rank as an offense?
Well, what criteria are you using to rank them?
MooreTrucker
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AG
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How do they rank as an offense?
Better than their opponents for 80 games so far.
We fixed the keg
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AG
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How do they rank as an offense?
Well, what criteria are you using to rank them?
Top 10 in all categories other than doubles/triples.
747Ag
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AG
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Can some of the wins be attributed to luck? Sure. The walk-off hit-by-pitch immediately comes to mind.
And yet, had they not had runners in position, a HBP couldn't be a walk-off. So luck? Or creating the right circumstances?
I'd say:
  • Creating the right circumstances to load the bases.
  • Luck that the Rzepczynski tossed a pitch at Odor.
  • Excellent presence of mind by Odor to take the hit, thus securing a win.
ebdb_bnb
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Thanks. It was a genuine question, and I didn't want to look it up.
Player To Be Named Later
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AG
This has turned into less of a "trash talk" thread and more into a "Houston Fans Make Excuses For Why Texas Really Isn't That Good" thread.
ebdb_bnb
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Playoffs will be fun one way or another.
We fixed the keg
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AG
quote:
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Can some of the wins be attributed to luck? Sure. The walk-off hit-by-pitch immediately comes to mind.
And yet, had they not had runners in position, a HBP couldn't be a walk-off. So luck? Or creating the right circumstances?
I'd say:
  • Creating the right circumstances to load the bases.
  • Luck that the Rzepczynski tossed a pitch at Odor.
  • Excellent presence of mind by Odor to take the hit, thus securing a win.

That "lucky" game that immediately comes to mind required back to back to back walks to Chirinos, Lucroy, and Desmond followed by a Beltran 2 run single. 1 or 2 missed pitches, fine, but 12 balls and then one misplaced pitch is not bad luck....it is bad pitching.

If anything was lucky in that game, it was Mucy's seeing-eye, infield hit that became the tying run to send the game into extra innings.
irish pete ag06
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AG
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This has turned into less of a "trash talk" thread and more into a "Houston Fans Make Excuses For Why Texas Really Isn't That Good" thread.
Houston fans? Like FiveThirtyEight.com, Call to the Pen, and Fangraphs? All of those are known Astros fansites, right?
We fixed the keg
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AG
quote:
Thanks. It was a genuine question, and I didn't want to look it up.
No worries.

mostly between 6th and 10th (HR and RBI, 6th in the AL and OPS they are 10th)
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