I am an old Ag I guess. Does Class of '94 constitute this. Anyway, I never post, and this may be "beating a dead horse". This exact thing may have been discussed at exhaustion on this board, but oh well...

I never thought the Ags wouild fall to #7 behind Ole Miss. I guess my first mistake was thinking that the committee would actually do their homework and then come up with the right conclusion. Did they actually ever say why they Ole Miss was ahead of the Ags?

First, just look at the SOS, SOR, and FPI.

SOS

Ags - 15
Oregon - 16
Ole Miss - 40
Tech - 59

SOR

Ags - 3
Oregon - 4
Ole Miss - 7
Tech - 10

FPI

Oregon - 4
Tech - 5
Ags - 10
Ole Miss - 12

Just going by these data points, the ranking order should be...

Oregon
Ags
Ole Miss
Tech

But just go ahead and keep Tech and Oregon at #4 and #5.

That brings us to #6 and #7. Yes 6-7. There are other data points that can be used because the Ags and Ole Miss played five common opponents. They beat all five, but take a look at the scores.

Ags

@ Ark W 45-42
@ LSU W 49-25
Vs SC W 31-30
Vs Fla W 34-17
Vs Miss St W 31-9
Avg. Score: 38 - 24.6 (13.4 Diff)

Ole Miss

Vs Ark W 41-35
Vs LSU W 24-19
Vs SC W 30-14
Vs Fla W 34-24
@ Miss St W 38-19
Avg. Score: 33.4 - 22.2 (11.2 Diff)

Now, if you add in the other three conference games...

Ags

Vs Aug W 16-10
@ Mizzou W 38-17
@ tu L 17-27

Ole Miss

@ OK W 34-26
@UGA L 35-45
@Kentucky W 30-23

Ags Avg. Conf. Score 32.6 - 22.1 (10.5 Diff)
Ole Miss Avg. Conf. Score 33.3 - 25.6 (7.7 Diff)

You can say that Ole Miss has a better win with OK, but then don't forget about Ags non-conference win against Notre Dame.

Again, the data is very close, but still favors the Ags. Then add to the fact that Ole Miss lost their HC and most of the offensive staff.

It just doesn't make since having Ole Miss ranked above the Ags! Just Saying!

Yah, but we lost later in the season, so we suck now. s/

I can't believe recency bias still has as much sway as it does

Our 10 pt loss to tu looks worse than their 10 pt loss to UGA

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First, just look at the SOS, SOR, and FPI.

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the committee does not use the same SOS and SOR you use in your post and don't use FPI that I know of.

unless you are looking at the same data they are, it will never make sense

and when you do look at their data on SOS, you will understand why our schedule hurts us and see that their SOS is complete and utter horsesheet.

But IF we move up to #6, and have the easier 1st game, then we have the harder 2nd game... against Georgia.

I would rather host ND in 1st round, then have the easier game (Indiana) in the 2nd round.

so 7v10 is in our favor if we want to go to the end...

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But IF we move up to #6, and have the easier 1st game, then we have the harder 2nd game... against Georgia.

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this assume UGA does not move to 2 with a win. There is no way to know that.

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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But IF we move up to #6, and have the easier 1st game, then we have the harder 2nd game... against Georgia.

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this assume UGA does not move to 2 with a win. There is no way to know that.

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1vs2 matchup loser goes to 3 after big 10 champ game if UGA wins. If UGA loses big10 keeps top 2 spots UGA and Bama may be 4/6 or 5/6 depending on if they want to give the Big10 the week off with all their playoff reps on a bye.

There's several other threads about it, but this is a decent snapshot to somewhat summarize.
At a glance this just shows us plus Oregon, but if you click on it, you'll see metrics for TxTech and OleMiss on there too.

Struggling to understand how A&M is lowest ranked out of these teams pic.twitter.com/LwCqvqn5p3

— Carson Jones (@CarsonCJones) December 3, 2025

Still believe #6 is the optimal place to be.

Let's assume the following win: OSU, GA, Tech, and UVA.

I would think the rankings would be.

1. OSU
2. GA
3. Indiana
4. Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Ags
8. OU
9. ND/Bama/Miami
10. ND/Bama/Miami
11. UVA
12. Tulane/N. Texas

#7
Rd. 1 vs. ND/Bama/Miami
Rd. 2 vs. GA

#6
Rd. 1 vs. UVA
Rd. 2 vs. Indiana

But then again, who knows what the heck this committee is doing.

Well laid out. Also should add that Ole Miss lost their head coach (who runs their offense) and along with several position coaches.

BMX Bandit said:

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the committee does not use the same SOS and SOR you use in your post and don't use FPI that I know of.

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They've never officially acknowledged that they do. I have a hard time believing that the ESPN CFP committee doesn't use the ESPN FPI poll/metric though.

Again, the reason all of this is kept behind closed doors is so they can get the tv matchups they want in order to maximize viewership (without completely alienating everyone).

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I have a hard time believing that the ESPN CFP committee doesn't use the ESPN FPI poll/metric though.

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we know they don't use the ESPN strength of schedule or record, so why would they use FPI?

just win

TSWAG said:

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I am an old Ag I guess. Does Class of '94 constitute this. Anyway, I never post, and this may be "beating a dead horse". This exact thing may have been discussed at exhaustion on this board, but oh well...

I never thought the Ags wouild fall to #7 behind Ole Miss. I guess my first mistake was thinking that the committee would actually do their homework and then come up with the right conclusion. Did they actually ever say why they Ole Miss was ahead of the Ags?

First, just look at the SOS, SOR, and FPI.

SOS

Ags - 15
Oregon - 16
Ole Miss - 40
Tech - 59

SOR

Ags - 3
Oregon - 4
Ole Miss - 7
Tech - 10

FPI

Oregon - 4
Tech - 5
Ags - 10
Ole Miss - 12

Just going by these data points, the ranking order should be...

Oregon
Ags
Ole Miss
Tech

But just go ahead and keep Tech and Oregon at #4 and #5.

That brings us to #6 and #7. Yes 6-7. There are other data points that can be used because the Ags and Ole Miss played five common opponents. They beat all five, but take a look at the scores.

Ags

@ Ark W 45-42
@ LSU W 49-25
Vs SC W 31-30
Vs Fla W 34-17
Vs Miss St W 31-9
Avg. Score: 38 - 24.6 (13.4 Diff)

Ole Miss

Vs Ark W 41-35
Vs LSU W 24-19
Vs SC W 30-14
Vs Fla W 34-24
@ Miss St W 38-19
Avg. Score: 33.4 - 22.2 (11.2 Diff)

Now, if you add in the other three conference games...

Ags

Vs Aug W 16-10
@ Mizzou W 38-17
@ tu L 17-27

Ole Miss

@ OK W 34-26
@UGA L 35-45
@Kentucky W 30-23

Ags Avg. Conf. Score 32.6 - 22.1 (10.5 Diff)
Ole Miss Avg. Conf. Score 33.3 - 25.6 (7.7 Diff)

You can say that Ole Miss has a better win with OK, but then don't forget about Ags non-conference win against Notre Dame.

Again, the data is very close, but still favors the Ags. Then add to the fact that Ole Miss lost their HC and most of the offensive staff.

It just doesn't make since having Ole Miss ranked above the Ags! Just Saying!

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Nailed it!

BMX Bandit said:

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Quote:

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I have a hard time believing that the ESPN CFP committee doesn't use the ESPN FPI poll/metric though.

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we know they don't use the ESPN strength of schedule or record, so why would they use FPI?

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Do we really know that?

TSWAG said:

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Still believe #6 is the optimal place to be.

Let's assume the following win: OSU, GA, Tech, and UVA.

I would think the rankings would be.

1. OSU
2. GA
3. Indiana
4. Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Ags
8. OU
9. ND/Bama/Miami
10. ND/Bama/Miami
11. UVA
12. Tulane/N. Texas

#7
Rd. 1 vs. ND/Bama/Miami
Rd. 2 vs. GA

#6
Rd. 1 vs. UVA
Rd. 2 vs. Indiana

But then again, who knows what the heck this committee is doing.

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Agree. I think 6 will be a better route than 7 when all is said and done.

Still, I just wanna host. Bama or Oklahoma are who I think we will end up playing in Kyle Field if that is the case.

I feel like we can win in either case.

EKG1996 said:

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Well laid out. Also should add that Ole Miss lost their head coach (who runs their offense) and along with several position coaches.

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Sympathy vote

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Do we really know that?

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yes, we really do.

based on their continued comments about our schedule being weak. we have a harder schedule per ESPN than ole miss does.

they use the opponent's win loss record and opponents' opponents win loss record. we are 91st in that. its ridiculous metric to use

We'll get Bama, OU or Miami. My money is on Miami.

I would be shocked if Miami gets in.

TSWAG said:

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I am an old Ag I guess. Does Class of '94 constitute this.

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Yes, one who says "Howdy, class of 19..." is classified as an Old Ag

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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I would be shocked if Miami gets in.

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When BYU loses, that'll put Miami right next to ND. Head to head goes to Miami.

When you lose matters almost as much as who you lose to. We will probably be #7 and probably get ND simply because that's my worst case scenario. Love will eat us alive even more so this time around.

I guess the true worst case scenario is both BYU and Bama winning, getting moved above us, and we no longer host.

TX_Aggie37 said:

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When you lose matters almost as much as who you lose to. We will probably be #7 and probably get ND simply because that's my worst case scenario. Love will eat us alive even more so this time around.

I guess the true worst case scenario is both BYU and Bama winning, getting moved above us, and we no longer host.

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Would you rather face ND at home or BYU on the road?

Yep, but we had the misfortune of losing later in the season than Ole Miss did.

As for any hit they may or may not take as a result of losing their head coach, the committee does as the committee wills. Apparently, they don't have to answer to anyone, except maybe ESPN and a few shady and extremely wealthy cigar smokers hiding in a dark room somewhere.

Six - Seven

We gotta let this go guys. Holy moly

By any logical metric ATM should be ahead of both Ole Miss and Oregon and Tech.

To be lower than all 3 is really hard to understand.

Just let computers weigh all this, the human element only breeds fraud and questions.

Didn't Ole Miss play 1 less road game as well?

TX_Aggie37 said:

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When you lose matters almost as much as who you lose to. We will probably be #7 and probably get ND simply because that's my worst case scenario. Love will eat us alive even more so this time around.

I guess the true worst case scenario is both BYU and Bama winning, getting moved above us, and we no longer host.

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You would think losing really late like if T Tech loses to BYU they would get punished by recency bias.

But I have a feeling T Tech might still be ahead of us even if they lose again.

Ags would have better record, better wins, better losses and still might be behind T Tech!

Onionman said:

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Didn't Ole Miss play 1 less road game as well?

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Yes, they played 4 true road games against Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Mississippi State because they played a home game against Washington State.

Wabs said:

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We'll get Bama, OU or Miami. My money is on Miami.

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Those are all tough match-ups but I like them.

Good Ags show up we win, bad Ags we lose.

I think we should be ranked ahead of Ole Miss for several reasons.

1. We played one more road game because we played Notre Dame on the road, while Ole Miss played Washington State at home.

2. We have a higher average point differential than Ole Miss in conference play: 10.5 points to 7.7.

3. We have 5 common opponents: Arkansas, LSU, South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi State, and we had a higher point average differential: 13.4 to 11.2.

While Ole Miss played home games against Arkansas and LSU, we played road games against Arkansas and LSU. Considering those home/away differences, we played better against Arkansas and LSU than Ole Miss did, especially with a dominating 49-25 road win against LSU. In contrast, Ole Miss squeaked by with a 24-19 home win over LSU.

Like Ole Miss, we played Florida and South Carolina at home. Like Ole Miss, we scored 34 points against Florida, but we gave up 7 fewer points to Florida than Ole Miss did. South Carolina is the only common opponent in which Ole Miss clearly played better than we did.

Against Mississippi State, I would say it's about even because we had a 22-point home win against Mississippi State, and Ole Miss had a 19-point road win against Mississippi State.

Remember when A&M got left out of the playoffs because the committee talked out of both sides of their mouths, saying they were picking the best teams at the end of the season to justify selecting an OSU team that played like 2 games but also said they were looking at total body of work to justify selecting a ND team who had just lost by 103 points? Peperidge Farms remembers.