Based on pundits and Vegas here is what I see (with some assumptions), help my math. This is not based on final rankings just assumed spots taken.

SEC: Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, OU, Bama (assuming they don't get blown out in the SEC Championship)
Big: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
ACC: Champion
Big 12: Champion
Group of 5: Whoever

That's 11 of the 12. So you have Notre Dame, Miami, Vandy, Big 12 Loser (who should be 11-1) basically vying for the last spot?

What am I missing? Again, assuming Bama gets in.

That's about it. The main hiccup would be if smu cant comeback (down 10 as I type) leading to Duke getting in the acc championship game. Should Duke win, its not auto they get the bid to the dance.

James Madison will likely win their conference champion and is already a top 25 team in the ap and coaches poll. Duke is not ranked.

That means james Madison would likely get the auto bid while the acc can only get an at-large team in

Pretty spot on

ND would get the nod in this scenario, IMO

I don't see Bama getting bounced bad enough by UGA to get knocked out

It'd be hard to see tech being left out if they were to lose to byu in the ccg game

Who?mikejones! said:

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It'd be hard to see tech being left out if they were to lose to byu in the ccg game

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Don't disagree. But if Tech loses the Big 12 Championship would they get in ahead of Norte Dame?

Yeah, or miami, or a 3 loss bama, or vandy.

If bama gets in but isn't punished for losing a 3rd game, why should tech be punished for losing a second?

Tech won't drop out if they lose to BYU but they will be a much lower seed

Big 12 loser would be 11-2. If it's BYU definitely out. If it's Texas Tech probably in.

Who knows, committee says you are not penalized for playing in championship game. Whatever that means? You cant drop?

merch said:

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Who knows, committee says you are not penalized for playing in championship game. Whatever that means? You cant drop?

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Which means they'll likely do just that.

KatyAggie2000 said:

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Based on pundits and Vegas here is what I see (with some assumptions), help my math. This is not based on final rankings just assumed spots taken.

SEC: Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, OU, Bama (assuming they don't get blown out in the SEC Championship)
Big: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
ACC: Champion
Big 12: Champion
Group of 5: Whoever

That's 11 of the 12. So you have Notre Dame, Miami, Vandy, Big 12 Loser (who should be 11-1) basically vying for the last spot?

What am I missing? Again, assuming Bama gets in.

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Big 12 loser won't be 11-1.

After CCG's, there will be at least 1 12-1 team, 3 if UGA & TT win, & 1 13-0 team.

Assuming 'bama wins tonight, there are then 3 11-1 teams who ar done, us, OM, & Ore.

Not clear on ACC but Miami is 10-2 & beat ND so they should be in.

So there is 9, UNT or Tulane or JMU still have a chance I think. OU is likely in w/Vandy & the other 2 loss teams fighting for a spot.

Still some shuffling to come IMO.

But we will host, at worst, a game.

Heres where it will end up in my opinion after today

1. Osu
2. Uga
3. Iu
4. Tech

5. Oregon
6. Tamu
7. Ole miss
8. Ou

9. Notre dame
10. Bama
11. Virginia
12. Tulane or north texas

Uh, I'd be pretty ok with a draw of Virginia then Indiana.

KatyAggie2000 said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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It'd be hard to see tech being left out if they were to lose to byu in the ccg game

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Don't disagree. But if Tech loses the Big 12 Championship would they get in ahead of Norte Dame?

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Notre Dame or Alabama would have to be kicked out of the playoff field if BYU beats Tech.

Id take it for sure.

It'd also be fun if that 1st game ended up being james Madison, a mountain west school or tulane.

I think the committee does a rethink and correctly slots Miami ahead of ND.

Beat ND head to head and spanked Pitt by 31 compared to the Irish winning by 22. Notre Dame had a pillow soft schedule apart from A&M at home and Miami and lost them both.

It's a travesty if ND gets in over any of the relevant 2 loss teams other than Vandy, and I think Vandy is more deserving too. ND gets more credit for the USC win but I think Vandy had the more difficult sked outside both teams' 2 losses.

The committee gets distracted by shiny things.

They want Notre dame in and will justify what they need to to make it happen.

Dream scenario would be 6 seed against Virginia.

KatyAggie2000 said:

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Based on pundits and Vegas here is what I see (with some assumptions), help my math. This is not based on final rankings just assumed spots taken.

SEC: Georgia, A&M, Ole Miss, OU, Bama (assuming they don't get blown out in the SEC Championship)
Big: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
ACC: Champion
Big 12: Champion
Group of 5: Whoever

That's 11 of the 12. So you have Notre Dame, Miami, Vandy, Big 12 Loser (who should be 11-1) basically vying for the last spot?

What am I missing? Again, assuming Bama gets in.

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If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, the committee will have to seriously consider whether Miami will be the conferences representative. Then, you get into the big debate about Miami v. Notre Dame. Does head-to-head matter or not?

What do you mean "representative?" No conference is guaranteed a spot.

Faustus said:

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I think the committee does a rethink and correctly slots Miami ahead of ND.

Beat ND head to head and spanked Pitt by 31 compared to the Irish winning by 22. Notre Dame had a pillow soft schedule apart from A&M at home and Miami and lost them both.

It's a travesty if ND gets in over any of the relevant 2 loss teams other than Vandy, and I think Vandy is more deserving too. ND gets more credit for the USC win but I think Vandy had the more difficult sked outside both teams' 2 losses.

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