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Phil Steele picks A&M to be "most improved" team in college football in 23'

3,927 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 9 mo ago by GW Ag
M1Buckeye
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No link. I got my Phil Steele digital edition today and saw that he as A&M at #1. Although the below author has A&M winning 7 games this season which doesn't seem like a huge improvement from 5 wins.

https://collegefootballnews.com/predictions/college-football-win-totals-2023-spring-version

I am curious as to the opinion of the A&M faithful regarding this year's version of the Aggies.
Hubert J. Farnsworth
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I have to laugh because that is such an easy choice for "most improved". It wouldn't take much for that to be true after last year so Phil isn't really going out on a limb there.
Bill Superman
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AG
Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

I have to laugh because that is such an easy choice for "most improved". It wouldn't take much for that to be true after last year so Phil isn't really going out on a limb there.
Does the word "most" mean anything to you?
Hubert J. Farnsworth
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Bill Superman said:

Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

I have to laugh because that is such an easy choice for "most improved". It wouldn't take much for that to be true after last year so Phil isn't really going out on a limb there.
Does the word "most" mean anything to you?


He sees the same talent we all see on this roster. Winning 9 games, which is nothing out of this world, would most likely make his prediction correct.
cap-n-jack
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As long as it isn't Mel Kiper, that dude is never right.
Agthatbuilds
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Simply having a starting qb not named king gets us to 7 wins probably.

If the oline is decent probably 8 wins

If the D can actually stop the run- maybe 9 wins
W
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AG
I expect the Ags to bounce back to 8-4 at a minimum
W
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AG
which of course is still below my every season expectation of 10 wins
aunuwyn08
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AG
Oh boy 7-9 win year 6. Then a rebuilding year in year 7.

Should have just kept Sumlin with these pathetic results.
Reno Hightower
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At least Sumlin had a heisman winner during his tenure (I know Sherm brought Johnny in).

Jimbo on average costs more than $1M/win.
Bill Superman
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AG
Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

Bill Superman said:

Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

I have to laugh because that is such an easy choice for "most improved". It wouldn't take much for that to be true after last year so Phil isn't really going out on a limb there.
Does the word "most" mean anything to you?


He sees the same talent we all see on this roster. Winning 9 games, which is nothing out of this world, would most likely make his prediction correct.
Call me what you want, but I would be perfectly whelmed with a 9 win season.

Obviously we all want at least 10 of course.
Ag in ATL
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AG
Bill Superman said:

Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

Bill Superman said:

Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

I have to laugh because that is such an easy choice for "most improved". It wouldn't take much for that to be true after last year so Phil isn't really going out on a limb there.
Does the word "most" mean anything to you?


He sees the same talent we all see on this roster. Winning 9 games, which is nothing out of this world, would most likely make his prediction correct.
Call me what you want, but I would be perfectly whelmed with a 9 win season.

Obviously we all want at least 10 of course.
Here's to whelming... clink!
beerad12man
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AG
Hubert J. Farnsworth said:

I have to laugh because that is such an easy choice for "most improved". It wouldn't take much for that to be true after last year so Phil isn't really going out on a limb there.
I mean, it kind of does. Every year, a 4-8 team goes 8-4 the next year. Every single year. That's 4 games improvement. For us to be "most" that would require a 10-win season if Phil is going by the increase in wins.

Colorado went 1-11. What if Deion has them at 4-8? Again, we'd need to be 9-3 to improve more wins.

If you are going by team efficiency? Sagarin had us at 39. ESPN had us at 44. Some team out there will improve 30+ spots in team efficiency. Whether they go from 70 to 40. 100 to 70. Whatever. So again, for us to win in this category, that means we likely need to be top 10 in efficiency which would make for an outstanding team.

So it isn't simply going from 5-7 to 7-5. It's going from 5-7 to something like 10-2, or at minimum 9-3. Yes, that's going out on a limb to claim we end up most improved when you really break it down.
beerad12man
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AG
Agthatbuilds said:

Simply having a starting qb not named king gets us to 7 wins probably.

If the oline is decent probably 8 wins

If the D can actually stop the run- maybe 9 wins
If all 3 of those happen, there is not much doubt about getting to 9 wins. 10/11 come into play at that point. You are talking about significant improvements along the three most important positions of the game: QB/OL/DL.

Hell, even just last year, we would have gone 8-4 with the possibility of 9-3 with a decent OL, even with our run D and QB play. We were bottom of the sec along the OL. 13/14 in OL efficiency. If we were decent, which would be the 6-8 range, we could have easily picked up 3-4 more wins looking at all of our close losses.
beerad12man
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AG
aunuwyn08 said:

Oh boy 7-9 win year 6. Then a rebuilding year in year 7.

Should have just kept Sumlin with these pathetic results.
Why would year 7 be rebuilding? The most talented class on campus right now are sophomores. Most should still be here in 2024 unless we fall apart, and they transfer out. Maybe that could happen at 7-5, but that won't happen at 9-3.

There is a huge, huge difference between 7 and 9 wins. So, you may want to separate those. 9-3 regular season would be a very, very good regular season. 7-5 would be utter disappointment. However, at 9-3, we would need to win a bowl game to really feel better. 10-3 is kind of that benchmark.

Also, not that it matters, but Sumlin was trending to being a 56-win coach here. After year 1, he never sniffed 9 wins, and got further removed from that possibility by the day. Fisher had an awful year 5, but his years 1-4 were much better than Sumlin would have produced from 2018-2021. It was going downhill fast, and that is more evident by Arizona. If Fisher goes 9-3, he will completely separate himself as better than Sumlin. If he goes 6-6, well then we are right back to where we were. Big year for him.
Ugly
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AG
Mathematically, the choice for most improved (P5) team is probably limited to us, Miami, Oklahoma, Auburn and Colorado. Oklahoma might take another year to ramp up even if Venables is the real deal, and they definitely won't be getting any special treatment from their conference. Auburn has an even harder time showing off than we do with their schedule, and they are heavily reliant on new coach + transfers, which is a circumstance with both a high ceiling and low floors. Colorado is basically reinventing how high of a ceiling and how low of a floor it is possible to have, so they are not a safe bet either.

In my mind, Miami and Texas A&M are very similar teams. Both way underachieved last year with a lot of talent, ending up in a disappointing 5-7 record causing them to replace their offensive coordinators. My personal pick for most improved would be Miami just because of the lower level of competition in the ACC, but a lot will be decided when we play each other on Sept. 9.
one safe place
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"Most improved" sounds a lot like "Miss Congeniality"
Iraq2xVeteran
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AG
This year, I am expecting a floor of 7-5 and a ceiling of 10-2 with 8-4 being our most likely regular season finish. Assuming we go 6-1 at home with only a loss to Alabama, the road/neutral site games will shape our season: @ Miami, vs Arkansas at Jerry World, @ Tennessee, @ Ole Miss, and @ LSU. I think we will beat Miami and Arkansas. We have struggled in road games. Since a 35-14 rout at Missouri on 10/16/21, we have lost 6 consecutive true road games. Hopefully, we can snap that losing streak at Miami in Week 2. Also, we have not a road game against an SEC West team since a 31-20 win at Auburn on 12/5/20. I think Ole Miss will be the most winnable of our 3 true SEC road games. Tennessee will be our toughest road game because we will be drained from playing Alabama at home on 10/7, and Tennessee will be coming off a bye week.
Emilio Fantastico
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We should be a fairly safe bet for 'most improved' if you look at what happened last year.
Even with everything that went wrong last year, we were a flu outbreak and one play away from 7-5.

So the 5-7 record was really not a true indication of where the team was even with all the injuries and discontent.

With guys back from injury and hopefully not a repeat on the injury front, all the freshmen that are back with a year of experience, and a departure from Jimbo's over complicated playbook, 9-3 should be the floor for this team.

Of course, part of the frustration and feeling that an opportunity was missed last year is the fact that a lot of teams we played turned out to be really bad as well (Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Miami, App State) and we managed to lose to 3 of those.
So our record this year may be more of a function not of how good we are but how good our competition is. We could be vastly improved as a team yet not win that many more games.
beerad12man
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Ugly said:

Mathematically, the choice for most improved (P5) team is probably limited to us, Miami, Oklahoma, Auburn and Colorado. Oklahoma might take another year to ramp up even if Venables is the real deal, and they definitely won't be getting any special treatment from their conference. Auburn has an even harder time showing off than we do with their schedule, and they are heavily reliant on new coach + transfers, which is a circumstance with both a high ceiling and low floors. Colorado is basically reinventing how high of a ceiling and how low of a floor it is possible to have, so they are not a safe bet either.

In my mind, Miami and Texas A&M are very similar teams. Both way underachieved last year with a lot of talent, ending up in a disappointing 5-7 record causing them to replace their offensive coordinators. My personal pick for most improved would be Miami just because of the lower level of competition in the ACC, but a lot will be decided when we play each other on Sept. 9.
Good points.

Oklahoma was 6-7 last year. A nutless monkey could get their talent to 8-4 this year in that conference. So that's 2 wins and 3 less losses. That means we need a minimum of 8-4 to be more improved than them. Really, they have no business not being at least 9-3, so that means 9-3 or better for us.

I could easily see Colorado going 3-9 or 4-8. So, again, we need 3 more wins, maybe 4 to beat them out. Miami was 5-7. Winner of that game may take the honor. Even if we beat them, I see them going 7-5 or 8-4.

Point is, at 8-4, someone likely beats us in this category. We need 9-3 to be most improved. Maybe even 10-2.
Aggie Apotheosis
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I have always liked Phil Steele and I think he's going to prove to be right on this. We're going to surprise some people. The talent is there.
livinmw
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OP, I have said for many months now, probably since December. We have a tougher schedule this year coming up and add to it that Addazio and Durkin did a terrible job and made poor decisions that cost us 3-4 games for sure. I know they both have the history but may be it's just that, they are history and can't get it done here. I know this, the poor decisions they made have nothing to do with what they accomplished in the past. Both ignored their personnel and made decisions to do things their way instead of adjusting to their personnel and allowing us to win 9 and very probably 10 wins last year. That is inexcusable but they have another year. If we have another poor season and these 2 guys don't make unbelievable leaps and bounds in year 2, they will hopefully both be fired. They will ultimately play the roles of the scapegoats to buy Jimbo a couple more years. Jimbo will take his time, get the replacements right this time and we will all see if that works or if not, a couple more years of disappointment and he will be gone. That's the reality of it.

With all that said, there is no way to predict with what we have seen from this OL and run defense that we will be any better this year. You can't trust either one of those guys. The only saving grace is the fact that we are yr 2 under each so our players should be able to play at a higher level than the first yr of major changes under both. Due to so much uncertainty in such vital areas of football OL and front 7, I have said with this tougher schedule, I can see anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2. I predict 2 losses. 1 to bama. Everybody is gonna probably lose to bama this year with Saban on his revenge tour following 2 losses last year. And @Tenn, shortened travel week to a hostile environment and following probably the most physical game of the year with bama. I then have 3 toss ups to a vastly improved @Miami in game 2 and this is where I just don't know or have faith in Addazio and Durkin to be ready for that kind of improved team on the road and that early in the season. If game 5 or 6, I love our chances. Auburn in game 4. Here again, early in the schedule. Auburn won't have anything on film as their first 3 games before us are against nobody and they will play vanilla like a scrimmage so Freeze has more talent than he has ever had at his disposal and they will pull out all the tricks against us. You can bet on it. Lastly, the 3rd toss up is Lsu. Even though we handled them in pretty dominate fashion last year, this is year 2 under Kelly, we pretty much did in their CFP dreams/possibilities before UGA closed that door anyways and Kelly will want revenge for all that. Not to mention, always tougher playing in the bayou.
GIG EM AGGIES!!!
JWinTX
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I'm conditioned to believe 7-5 is most likely, but 8-4 is winning at Miami and winning in JerryWorld against Arky.

Don't see wins against Bama, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, or at LSU.
beerad12man
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AG
Both OL and run defense will be improved. Zero doubt in my mind. The only question is how much.
aunuwyn08
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AG
beerad12man said:

aunuwyn08 said:

Oh boy 7-9 win year 6. Then a rebuilding year in year 7.

Should have just kept Sumlin with these pathetic results.
Why would year 7 be rebuilding? The most talented class on campus right now are sophomores. Most should still be here in 2024 unless we fall apart, and they transfer out. Maybe that could happen at 7-5, but that won't happen at 9-3.

There is a huge, huge difference between 7 and 9 wins. So, you may want to separate those. 9-3 regular season would be a very, very good regular season. 7-5 would be utter disappointment. However, at 9-3, we would need to win a bowl game to really feel better. 10-3 is kind of that benchmark.

Also, not that it matters, but Sumlin was trending to being a 56-win coach here. After year 1, he never sniffed 9 wins, and got further removed from that possibility by the day. Fisher had an awful year 5, but his years 1-4 were much better than Sumlin would have produced from 2018-2021. It was going downhill fast, and that is more evident by Arizona. If Fisher goes 9-3, he will completely separate himself as better than Sumlin. If he goes 6-6, well then we are right back to where we were. Big year for him.


Through 5 seasons, Sumlin had a better record - full stop. Sumlin and Fisher won 3 bowls (same caliber of wins as well).

Sumlin had more players drafted in the first round than Fisher. Fisher has recruited better than Sumlin (not a positive given his performance).

You can talk about trends all you want, but this is the cold hard truth. Fisher lost his recruiting shine now, can't fill critical roster positions with blue chip talent, and is struggling to bring in a top 10 class this year. That's not good given he's recruited better than any coach at a&m and still can't do better than 8 wins.

Further, Sumlin never had a losing season, even with massive drama in his roster. Fisher managed to pilot one of the most talented a&m teams in history to 5 wins including a home loss to App St and road loss to an interim coach on a putrid Auburn team. In the off-season we fired his yes man OC and replaced him with a G5 retread, and called it good. No other coaching changes.

Sumlin didn't have benefit of NIL or transfer portal, but Fisher does and either cannot or refuses to adapt to make it work for us.

Fisher is a dread man walking in the eyes of our competition and recruits, and if he doesn't make a move on the field this year this program is going to be buried for years.

8 wins is not the standard for a program that wants to say it's competing for championships. Down year expectations should be 10-3. We're just posers with a lot of money.
tjburns
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Until Jimbo blows a 5 score lead, you can't convince me Sumlin is in the same realm of coaching.
tjburns
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Ole Miss won by 3 points against last years teams... They aren't as big a threat as you think they are.

We dominated LSU at the end of last season, but I get it, they had the #1 spot locked up so that could've been a factor.
aunuwyn08
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AG
tjburns said:

Until Jimbo blows a 5 score lead, you can't convince me Sumlin is in the same realm of coaching.


Jimbo could never score enough points to have the opportunity.
Emilio Fantastico
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AG
beerad12man said:

Both OL and run defense will be improved. Zero doubt in my mind. The only question is how much.

Exactly, if the no longer true freshman DEs can learn to not crash down the line and repeatedly get beat around the edge, the run defense magically improves by 50 yards a game.
Hubert J. Farnsworth
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Emilio Fantastico said:

beerad12man said:

Both OL and run defense will be improved. Zero doubt in my mind. The only question is how much.

Exactly, if the no longer true freshman DEs can learn to not crash down the line and repeatedly get beat around the edge, the run defense magically improves by 50 yards a game.


The lack of containment by the DE's last year along with the seeming lack of adjustment throughout the season was baffling. Kind of reminded me of Myles Garrett and Dashaun Hall crashing upfield over and over and the RB's slipping underneath them all season while Chavis never seemed to adjust.
livinmw
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beerad12man said:

Both OL and run defense will be improved. Zero doubt in my mind. The only question is how much.
Yeah, that's basically what I am saying as well. Automatically with the level of talent and playmakers we have, I can't imagine anything but an improvement for sure in yr 2 no matter how bad the coaching. Just familiarity alone stands to make that point but obviously, the biggest unknown is how much. No doubt.
GIG EM AGGIES!!!
tjburns
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You prefer the "offensive mastermind" who play called his way into blowing a 5 score lead, makes sense. If Sumlin could've figured out that a run play/kneeling doesn't stop the clock, he would've won the UCLA game.
GW Ag
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aunuwyn08 said:

beerad12man said:

aunuwyn08 said:

Oh boy 7-9 win year 6. Then a rebuilding year in year 7.

Should have just kept Sumlin with these pathetic results.
Why would year 7 be rebuilding? The most talented class on campus right now are sophomores. Most should still be here in 2024 unless we fall apart, and they transfer out. Maybe that could happen at 7-5, but that won't happen at 9-3.

There is a huge, huge difference between 7 and 9 wins. So, you may want to separate those. 9-3 regular season would be a very, very good regular season. 7-5 would be utter disappointment. However, at 9-3, we would need to win a bowl game to really feel better. 10-3 is kind of that benchmark.

Also, not that it matters, but Sumlin was trending to being a 56-win coach here. After year 1, he never sniffed 9 wins, and got further removed from that possibility by the day. Fisher had an awful year 5, but his years 1-4 were much better than Sumlin would have produced from 2018-2021. It was going downhill fast, and that is more evident by Arizona. If Fisher goes 9-3, he will completely separate himself as better than Sumlin. If he goes 6-6, well then we are right back to where we were. Big year for him.


Through 5 seasons, Sumlin had a better record - full stop. Sumlin and Fisher won 3 bowls (same caliber of wins as well).

Sumlin had more players drafted in the first round than Fisher. Fisher has recruited better than Sumlin (not a positive given his performance).

You can talk about trends all you want, but this is the cold hard truth. Fisher lost his recruiting shine now, can't fill critical roster positions with blue chip talent, and is struggling to bring in a top 10 class this year. That's not good given he's recruited better than any coach at a&m and still can't do better than 8 wins.

Further, Sumlin never had a losing season, even with massive drama in his roster. Fisher managed to pilot one of the most talented a&m teams in history to 5 wins including a home loss to App St and road loss to an interim coach on a putrid Auburn team. In the off-season we fired his yes man OC and replaced him with a G5 retread, and called it good. No other coaching changes.

Sumlin didn't have benefit of NIL or transfer portal, but Fisher does and either cannot or refuses to adapt to make it work for us.

Fisher is a dread man walking in the eyes of our competition and recruits, and if he doesn't make a move on the field this year this program is going to be buried for years.

8 wins is not the standard for a program that wants to say it's competing for championships. Down year expectations should be 10-3. We're just posers with a lot of money.
Could not agree more.
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