This is all my best guess. TL/DR at bottom.
I don't believe the B1G is done expanding, just as many are suggesting today. This is a very well thought out reaction to what Sankey did last summer. I believe the B1G has already made up its mind to add Oregon, but is only performing this in stages, starting with USC/UCLA. They're now waiting on seeing what a certain independent school does next...
Notre Dame.
The next two years will likely see a crazy tug-of-war between the ACC and B1G over Notre Dame. The ACC knows that if it doesn't add Notre Dame, then it will be dissolved once its media rights expire in 2036. However, I don't think it will be enough to match the B1G.
The B1G's media rights deal expires in 2023. Notre Dame's deal expires in 2025 with NBC. Now most people think Notre Dame will never join a conference, but I believe the money here will be too much to pass by. The B1G is now looking at a super-conference TV deal north of $1 billion, just like the SEC, in its next negotiation. For reference, Notre Dame currently makes $15M a year from NBC, with another $10M from the ACC as a partial member. That's well below the roughly $35M the ACC currently averages as payouts to its full time members. When you consider that the future B1G super-conference would be offering north of $60M per member, that's a hard deal for Notre Dame to pass up. Also, NBC is apparently now interested in adding the B1G while trying to keep Notre Dame, which could drive a huge bidding war between FOX and NBC.
https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/2022/02/17/big-ten-tv-deal-nbc-notre-dame-football/
Furthermore, the B1G just gave itself another bargaining chip with Notre Dame today: it can now offer USC as a permanent conference rivalry game to Notre Dame. If Notre Dame joins, then the B1G will add Oregon to make member #18, and may call it day for this round of realignment. If Notre Dame doesn't join, then they'll likely add Oregon and Washington (next biggest estimated fanbase + SEATAC market) to make 18. Or, there's a possibility they are looking to make it to 20, and want to add Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford (another Notre Dame rival and bargaining chip). At that point, Notre Dame is in a conference with the majority of their historical rivals, and could easily manage scheduling Navy as a G5 nonconference game.
Obviously all the other Pac schools see the writing on the wall, so I believe the Big 12 flips the tables from last year and adds Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado. These 4 have the next biggest fanbases left in the Pac, and make the most sense geographically. WSU, Oregon State, and Cal will likely be left to fend for themselves at this point. WSU and OSU have G5 sized fanbases, and Cal's culture and lack of relevancy for decades likely banishes them to one of the current G5 conferences as well. I foresee these 3 schools being force to join the Mountain West.
At this point, college football will likely stabilize into 4 super-conferences with a 12 team playoff around the 2025-2026 timeframe. This era will likely last a decade until the last few years of the ACC's terrible media deal (expiring in 2036). At this point, the ACC has failed to coax Notre Dame into joining full-time, and the SEC makes it's next move to match the B1G by moving to 20. The SEC will likely be negotiating a new deal with ESPN (the CFP will likely as well), so I see the SEC snatching up the 4 biggest fanbases in the ACC: Clemson, Miami, FSU, and UNC.
What's left of the ACC is folded into the Big 12. They will be the clear third place conference, but will still be considered a super-conference. Perhaps they will get gutted a decade later, in the 2040s, and we are left with 2 mega-conferences.
I believe all the conference commissioners know this is where it's headed. Many people have said over the past year that it doesn't make sense to go to this many teams, because you've diluted the pie into too many slices. However, I think there's a good reason for this. 50 years ago, half of the FBS was independent, and there were roughly 10 conferences that were relevant in the sport. At that time, TV networks had a much easier time negotiating deals, as the supply (number of conferences/independent schools) greatly outnumbered the number of major TV networks (also because of NCAA restrictions). However once we make it to 3 super-conferences, the tables have flipped. You now have 3 major conferences to 4 major TV networks (ABC/ESPN, NBC, FOX, CBS). This is why commissioners are looking to continue growing and force TV networks into exponentially higher bidding wars. At this point, they will hold all the cards, as 90% of the current college football fanbase will be represented by 3 conferences. (source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MiUOwx8X3H2bSkUOz8a1YhceyJWLLCoJ/view)
A 12 team playoff with the top 4 teams from each conference would likely be very successful with this model.
TL/DR: The Pac is going to die, the B1G will add at least two more teams, and the Big 12 will expand as well. College football will stabilize for a decade, then the ACC will get pilfered and we will have 3 twenty team super-conferences that almost have a monopoly on the sport.
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.
I don't believe the B1G is done expanding, just as many are suggesting today. This is a very well thought out reaction to what Sankey did last summer. I believe the B1G has already made up its mind to add Oregon, but is only performing this in stages, starting with USC/UCLA. They're now waiting on seeing what a certain independent school does next...
Notre Dame.
The next two years will likely see a crazy tug-of-war between the ACC and B1G over Notre Dame. The ACC knows that if it doesn't add Notre Dame, then it will be dissolved once its media rights expire in 2036. However, I don't think it will be enough to match the B1G.
The B1G's media rights deal expires in 2023. Notre Dame's deal expires in 2025 with NBC. Now most people think Notre Dame will never join a conference, but I believe the money here will be too much to pass by. The B1G is now looking at a super-conference TV deal north of $1 billion, just like the SEC, in its next negotiation. For reference, Notre Dame currently makes $15M a year from NBC, with another $10M from the ACC as a partial member. That's well below the roughly $35M the ACC currently averages as payouts to its full time members. When you consider that the future B1G super-conference would be offering north of $60M per member, that's a hard deal for Notre Dame to pass up. Also, NBC is apparently now interested in adding the B1G while trying to keep Notre Dame, which could drive a huge bidding war between FOX and NBC.
https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/2022/02/17/big-ten-tv-deal-nbc-notre-dame-football/
Furthermore, the B1G just gave itself another bargaining chip with Notre Dame today: it can now offer USC as a permanent conference rivalry game to Notre Dame. If Notre Dame joins, then the B1G will add Oregon to make member #18, and may call it day for this round of realignment. If Notre Dame doesn't join, then they'll likely add Oregon and Washington (next biggest estimated fanbase + SEATAC market) to make 18. Or, there's a possibility they are looking to make it to 20, and want to add Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford (another Notre Dame rival and bargaining chip). At that point, Notre Dame is in a conference with the majority of their historical rivals, and could easily manage scheduling Navy as a G5 nonconference game.
Obviously all the other Pac schools see the writing on the wall, so I believe the Big 12 flips the tables from last year and adds Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado. These 4 have the next biggest fanbases left in the Pac, and make the most sense geographically. WSU, Oregon State, and Cal will likely be left to fend for themselves at this point. WSU and OSU have G5 sized fanbases, and Cal's culture and lack of relevancy for decades likely banishes them to one of the current G5 conferences as well. I foresee these 3 schools being force to join the Mountain West.
At this point, college football will likely stabilize into 4 super-conferences with a 12 team playoff around the 2025-2026 timeframe. This era will likely last a decade until the last few years of the ACC's terrible media deal (expiring in 2036). At this point, the ACC has failed to coax Notre Dame into joining full-time, and the SEC makes it's next move to match the B1G by moving to 20. The SEC will likely be negotiating a new deal with ESPN (the CFP will likely as well), so I see the SEC snatching up the 4 biggest fanbases in the ACC: Clemson, Miami, FSU, and UNC.
What's left of the ACC is folded into the Big 12. They will be the clear third place conference, but will still be considered a super-conference. Perhaps they will get gutted a decade later, in the 2040s, and we are left with 2 mega-conferences.
I believe all the conference commissioners know this is where it's headed. Many people have said over the past year that it doesn't make sense to go to this many teams, because you've diluted the pie into too many slices. However, I think there's a good reason for this. 50 years ago, half of the FBS was independent, and there were roughly 10 conferences that were relevant in the sport. At that time, TV networks had a much easier time negotiating deals, as the supply (number of conferences/independent schools) greatly outnumbered the number of major TV networks (also because of NCAA restrictions). However once we make it to 3 super-conferences, the tables have flipped. You now have 3 major conferences to 4 major TV networks (ABC/ESPN, NBC, FOX, CBS). This is why commissioners are looking to continue growing and force TV networks into exponentially higher bidding wars. At this point, they will hold all the cards, as 90% of the current college football fanbase will be represented by 3 conferences. (source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MiUOwx8X3H2bSkUOz8a1YhceyJWLLCoJ/view)
A 12 team playoff with the top 4 teams from each conference would likely be very successful with this model.
TL/DR: The Pac is going to die, the B1G will add at least two more teams, and the Big 12 will expand as well. College football will stabilize for a decade, then the ACC will get pilfered and we will have 3 twenty team super-conferences that almost have a monopoly on the sport.
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.