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Long: Predictions for the next 2 Years of this Conference Realignment Cycle & Beyond

2,798 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aggiehawg
Aggieair
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This is all my best guess. TL/DR at bottom.

I don't believe the B1G is done expanding, just as many are suggesting today. This is a very well thought out reaction to what Sankey did last summer. I believe the B1G has already made up its mind to add Oregon, but is only performing this in stages, starting with USC/UCLA. They're now waiting on seeing what a certain independent school does next...

Notre Dame.

The next two years will likely see a crazy tug-of-war between the ACC and B1G over Notre Dame. The ACC knows that if it doesn't add Notre Dame, then it will be dissolved once its media rights expire in 2036. However, I don't think it will be enough to match the B1G.

The B1G's media rights deal expires in 2023. Notre Dame's deal expires in 2025 with NBC. Now most people think Notre Dame will never join a conference, but I believe the money here will be too much to pass by. The B1G is now looking at a super-conference TV deal north of $1 billion, just like the SEC, in its next negotiation. For reference, Notre Dame currently makes $15M a year from NBC, with another $10M from the ACC as a partial member. That's well below the roughly $35M the ACC currently averages as payouts to its full time members. When you consider that the future B1G super-conference would be offering north of $60M per member, that's a hard deal for Notre Dame to pass up. Also, NBC is apparently now interested in adding the B1G while trying to keep Notre Dame, which could drive a huge bidding war between FOX and NBC.

https://fightingirishwire.usatoday.com/2022/02/17/big-ten-tv-deal-nbc-notre-dame-football/

Furthermore, the B1G just gave itself another bargaining chip with Notre Dame today: it can now offer USC as a permanent conference rivalry game to Notre Dame. If Notre Dame joins, then the B1G will add Oregon to make member #18, and may call it day for this round of realignment. If Notre Dame doesn't join, then they'll likely add Oregon and Washington (next biggest estimated fanbase + SEATAC market) to make 18. Or, there's a possibility they are looking to make it to 20, and want to add Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford (another Notre Dame rival and bargaining chip). At that point, Notre Dame is in a conference with the majority of their historical rivals, and could easily manage scheduling Navy as a G5 nonconference game.

Obviously all the other Pac schools see the writing on the wall, so I believe the Big 12 flips the tables from last year and adds Arizona, ASU, Utah, and Colorado. These 4 have the next biggest fanbases left in the Pac, and make the most sense geographically. WSU, Oregon State, and Cal will likely be left to fend for themselves at this point. WSU and OSU have G5 sized fanbases, and Cal's culture and lack of relevancy for decades likely banishes them to one of the current G5 conferences as well. I foresee these 3 schools being force to join the Mountain West.

At this point, college football will likely stabilize into 4 super-conferences with a 12 team playoff around the 2025-2026 timeframe. This era will likely last a decade until the last few years of the ACC's terrible media deal (expiring in 2036). At this point, the ACC has failed to coax Notre Dame into joining full-time, and the SEC makes it's next move to match the B1G by moving to 20. The SEC will likely be negotiating a new deal with ESPN (the CFP will likely as well), so I see the SEC snatching up the 4 biggest fanbases in the ACC: Clemson, Miami, FSU, and UNC.

What's left of the ACC is folded into the Big 12. They will be the clear third place conference, but will still be considered a super-conference. Perhaps they will get gutted a decade later, in the 2040s, and we are left with 2 mega-conferences.

I believe all the conference commissioners know this is where it's headed. Many people have said over the past year that it doesn't make sense to go to this many teams, because you've diluted the pie into too many slices. However, I think there's a good reason for this. 50 years ago, half of the FBS was independent, and there were roughly 10 conferences that were relevant in the sport. At that time, TV networks had a much easier time negotiating deals, as the supply (number of conferences/independent schools) greatly outnumbered the number of major TV networks (also because of NCAA restrictions). However once we make it to 3 super-conferences, the tables have flipped. You now have 3 major conferences to 4 major TV networks (ABC/ESPN, NBC, FOX, CBS). This is why commissioners are looking to continue growing and force TV networks into exponentially higher bidding wars. At this point, they will hold all the cards, as 90% of the current college football fanbase will be represented by 3 conferences. (source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MiUOwx8X3H2bSkUOz8a1YhceyJWLLCoJ/view)

A 12 team playoff with the top 4 teams from each conference would likely be very successful with this model.

TL/DR: The Pac is going to die, the B1G will add at least two more teams, and the Big 12 will expand as well. College football will stabilize for a decade, then the ACC will get pilfered and we will have 3 twenty team super-conferences that almost have a monopoly on the sport.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.
Bill Superman
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AG
I no longer care what happens over the next 2 years and beyond as long as we win.
Iraq2xVeteran
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AG
The OP articulated excellent summary of his predictions for College Football conference realignments and TV contracts for the rest of this decade. If more Aggie games are broadcasted on ABC, NBC, Fox, or CBS, I will be happier because I don't have cable. I hope national championship games will return to ABC, but that's unlikely to happen.
Ugly
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AG
Not sure how much of a chance it has of happening, but everybody seems to think we're heading to two superconferences anyways, so here goes. If a B12/PAC12 merger occurs with the leftovers that the B10 and SEC don't want, it sets up the stage for relegation to become a realistic thing in college football. With a few more changes with ND/Clemson, the sport could easily become 2 major conferences + 2 minor conferences + G5s and everybody left over. Massive conferences are unwieldy, but if the SEC "merges" with the leftover ACC and the B10 "merges" with the left over B12, you have two roughly equal entities that own the rights to all significant brands in college football. This is largely in line with what most people seem to expect.

However, from this point, those super conferences would now have the ability to do a lot of very interesting things. They could go the boring NFL route, or they could use the existing framework to set up "divisions" that are governed by relegation rules. Vandy doesn't have a good year in football? They get added to the ACC block the next year. Virginia Tech manages a breakout year? They get bumped up to the "SEC" division. The respective tiers in the B10 and SEC play each other, so there is no argument over whether a 11-1 Arizona State team in the lower B10 tier deserves to be in over a 9-3 Florida team from the SEC upper tier.

Non-football sports wouldn't need to be affected by this, as you could have more flexibility to sort "divisions" as needed by regionality. Money would still be split across the conference, but there would be different payouts based on division.

I hate where all of this is going, but if the sport is going to implode around us, we can at least figure out what new features we can add to make the end result more palatable.
Aggieair
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As I said, Notre Dame the next domino to fall/not fall.
yell_on_6th st
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How do the TV networks have this much leverage? Especially the way distribution of media content is changing? I barely watch network TV anymore.
Aggieair
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yell_on_6th st said:

How do the TV networks have this much leverage? Especially the way distribution of media content is changing? I barely watch network TV anymore.
I don't think they do. The B1G and SEC hold most of the leverage now. It's a seller's market now. The TV networks will get into bidding wars, and now they have to compete with Apple and Amazon who are trying to enter the industry.
Aggieair
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Aggieair
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Charlie 31
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As long as Texas A&M starts winning national championships, I do not care to which conference our vanquished foes belong.
Houstonag
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Yes, we just need to win. Do not lose to people we are supposed to beat. Miss St, Miss, LSU, etc.
NyAggie
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Op's scenario is the most realistic I have seen anyone post thus far

It could very well play out that way
Aggieair
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The B1G seems poised to cash in now that every major player in the college football TV industry wants a piece of their media rights.

I stand by my prediction that this is too much for Notre Dame to pass up. They'll likely join, at least for football only, in the coming weeks. They can't afford to fall any further behind in the TV revenue arms race.

Apple Wants Back In For Big Ten Media Rights Negotiations
aggiehawg
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AG
NyAggie said:

Op's scenario is the most realistic I have seen anyone post this far

I could very well play out that way
Have fun with yourself, then.
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