College football rankings: ESPN computer predicts playoff, national title - College Football HQ (si.com)

1. Ohio State 82.3%
2. Alabama 79.3%
3. Georgia 73.5%
4. Clemson 59.0%
5. Texas 21.0%
6. Notre Dame 17.6%
7. Michigan 14.8%
8. Oklahoma 12.6%
9. Pittsburgh 10.2%
10. Utah 4.9%

"FPI ranked the Longhorns in the top 10 and give them the fifth-best chance to make the College Football Playoff. Quite the prediction, given how UT struggled a year ago, going 5-7 in Steve Sarkisian's first year, including a home loss to Kansas."

I love how they poke at their own computed predictions every year, like their FPI algorithm is some kind of mystical oracle that has no way of being modified by someone that might actually know wtf they are doing.

I actually don't think that is crazy.
Second year under head coach; I think many expect Texas to be a lot better.
But perhaps biggest factor is the pathetic conference they play in. OU has dominated but this year OU is decimated with coach leaving and players transferring. If ever Texas breaks through in that conference it could/should be this year.

Now, having said that, ATM was essentially eliminated from playoff contention a few years ago by having only one loss by too wide a margin to Bama. If Bama beats Texas by 3 scores, that should eliminate Texas from contention. If it doesn't, perhaps it is time to burn this playoff format to the ground!

How does a list drop from 59% to 21% chance when you move from 4th to 5th place with 5 power conf.

This tells you that you have good teams in 3 conferences, and none in Pac12, and for the entire Big 12 Conf members everyone has a 21% or less chance of winning.

Big drop.

merch said:

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I actually don't think that is crazy.
Second year under head coach; I think .
But perhaps biggest factor is the pathetic conference they play in. OU has dominated but this year OU is decimated with coach leaving and players transferring. If ever Texas breaks through in that conference it could/should be this year.

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"many expect Texas to be a lot better"

Well, they should be better, but that's been said for two decades. It's just ESPN being ESPN. They know the horn brand needs propping up during this 20-year drought. Any flicker of light and we all know what phrase comes next.

SuperAg09 said:

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Vegas is the only one that matters and they have tu at +7500 odds to win CFP National Championship. That's 16th right behind Miami and Penn State and right above Oklahoma State... Meanwhile Vegas has the Ags odds at +2375 which is good for #5 right behind Clemson and ahead of USC and Oklahoma....

There is no bias at ESPN...

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Interesting that Vegas has OU at +3750. #6, really?
I want to know what they know?

reporters are lazy. They simply regurgitate stories from previous years. This is why they are always ranked in a preseason poll.

Quote:

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Interesting that Vegas has OU at +3750. #6, really?

I want to know what they know?

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They know the BDF is pathetic and that having one team like a Texas or OU get through conference undefeated shouldn't be that hard. It is really only the non-conference schedule that stands in the way.

It looks like they're expecting the Big 8 + 4 - 2 - 2 + 2 - 2 + 4 to basically be pretty bad this year, yet their computers are giving them an edge over Aranda's defending Baylor and Venables' first year OU group.

If I'm understanding that correctly, then I can see how the sips might win the Big 12 EDT, and, if so, like any Power 5 conference champ, will get some consideration for the playoff.

It would be tough to get in at 10-1, so if they're 12-0 or 11-1 they might well make the playoff. But most everyone would predict they'd get smeared by Ohio St., Bama or UGA.

rootube said:

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The OU roster was absolutely decimated in the off-season. Texas has a much easier path to the playoff than A&M. That is just a fact.

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Exactly. I don't know why so many of you get so butthurt at stuff like this. The CFP takes 4 teams:

1) SEC winner (Bama or Georgia)
2) Big 10 winner (tOSU)
3) ACC winner (Clemson)
4) A 0 or 1 loss Notre Dame
OR
4) 2nd SEC team (Bama or Georgia)
OR
4) Big 12 winner

I suppose you could argue the Pac 12 (projected) winner should be higher, but still, it's 21% for t.u.
Still won't happen.

NoahAg said:

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rootube said:

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The OU roster was absolutely decimated in the off-season. Texas has a much easier path to the playoff than A&M. That is just a fact.

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Exactly. I don't know why so many of you get so butthurt at stuff like this. The CFP takes 4 teams:

1) SEC winner (Bama or Georgia)
2) Big 10 winner (tOSU)
3) ACC winner (Clemson)
4) A 0 or 1 loss Notre Dame
OR
4) 2nd SEC team (Bama or Georgia)
OR
4) Big 12 winner

I suppose you could argue the Pac 12 (projected) winner should be higher, but still, it's 21% for t.u.
Still won't happen.

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It is a joke because there are multiple other B12 teams, besides OU, who realistically have a higher chance of winning the B12 than Texas, yet you don't see any of them on the list.

The thing about making a model is you need to do sanity checks. Having Texas at #5 in this is just a hilarious sign that no one with any knowledge of college football actually looked at the nonsense their formula spit out.

The percentages are likelihood to make the playoff. That's different than win it. Texas number is high because their conference is terrible.

The Agly Duckling said:

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It looks like they're expecting the Big 8 + 4 - 2 - 2 + 2 - 2 + 4 to basically be pretty bad this year, yet their computers are giving them an edge over Aranda's defending Baylor and Venables' first year OU group.

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What does Vegas know to think this Aranda team will be any different than last? He did lose guys to the draft but where did those guys come from? They were not 5-star, so 3 and 4-star players. One-year transfers? I think he will repeat that with a roster of similar-type guys.

Why do they predict first-year HC Venables will field a better product when Aranda has proven he can. That was an exceptionally well coach unit (god I hate saying that). And the guy has proven far more than head sip that can't seem to get buy-in much less motivate players...see bus ride video.

Let's see them get past Kansas first.

Artorias said:

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NoahAg said:

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rootube said:

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The OU roster was absolutely decimated in the off-season. Texas has a much easier path to the playoff than A&M. That is just a fact.

---

Exactly. I don't know why so many of you get so butthurt at stuff like this. The CFP takes 4 teams:

1) SEC winner (Bama or Georgia)
2) Big 10 winner (tOSU)
3) ACC winner (Clemson)
4) A 0 or 1 loss Notre Dame
OR
4) 2nd SEC team (Bama or Georgia)
OR
4) Big 12 winner

I suppose you could argue the Pac 12 (projected) winner should be higher, but still, it's 21% for t.u.
Still won't happen.

---

It is a joke because there are multiple other B12 teams, besides OU, who realistically have a higher chance of winning the B12 than Texas, yet you don't see any of them on the list.

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This-Baylor, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma(whose "decimated" roster is still vastly superior to Texas at full strength)-see the last 30 years.

They were still Top 10 last year with like a 3-5 record. Lmao

How can i "short" the goofy Sips? I saw they are like +250 to win the Big12, only behind Ou at like +150. Osu like +700. Baylor like +1400.

Aggie1188 said:

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How can i "short" the goofy Sips? I saw they are like +250 to win the Big12, only behind Ou at like +150. Osu like +700. Baylor like +1400.

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There is an equally solid bet without the need for a short.

That is the SI article about the ESPN computer model. they ARE making fun of it, especially the t.u. part.

NoahAg said:

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rootube said:

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The OU roster was absolutely decimated in the off-season. Texas has a much easier path to the playoff than A&M. That is just a fact.

---

Exactly. I don't know why so many of you get so butthurt at stuff like this. The CFP takes 4 teams:

1) SEC winner (Bama or Georgia)
2) Big 10 winner (tOSU)
3) ACC winner (Clemson)
4) A 0 or 1 loss Notre Dame
OR
4) 2nd SEC team (Bama or Georgia)
OR
4) Big 12 winner

I suppose you could argue the Pac 12 (projected) winner should be higher, but still, it's 21% for t.u.
Still won't happen.

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Or last year when there was NO ACC winner, NO Big 12 winner, and NO Notre Dame

Citizen Reign said:

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SuperAg09 said:

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Vegas is the only one that matters and they have tu at +7500 odds to win CFP National Championship. That's 16th right behind Miami and Penn State and right above Oklahoma State... Meanwhile Vegas has the Ags odds at +2375 which is good for #5 right behind Clemson and ahead of USC and Oklahoma....

There is no bias at ESPN...

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Interesting that Vegas has OU at +3750. #6, really?
I want to know what they know?

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They must put some stock in General Booty.

Here's to OSU, Baylor, and ISU putting something in General Booty.

ESPN is the enemy of the state and should be treated as such.

This, and, well it will be hilarious to watch the sips continue to get pushed around by Kansas, Iowa State and TCU. Fully expect Bama and Baylor to drop half a hundred on them, respectively.

merch said:

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I actually don't think that is crazy.
Second year under head coach; I think many expect Texas to be a lot better.
But perhaps biggest factor is the pathetic conference they play in. OU has dominated but this year OU is decimated with coach leaving and players transferring. If ever Texas breaks through in that conference it could/should be this year.

Now, having said that, ATM was essentially eliminated from playoff contention a few years ago by having only one loss by too wide a margin to Bama. If Bama beats Texas by 3 scores, that should eliminate Texas from contention. If it doesn't, perhaps it is time to burn this playoff format to the ground!

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Bruh, tu can't even beat Kansas. At home. Let that sink in for a few. Kansas is one of the absolute worst programs in D-1 college football. It is ABSOLUTELY CRAZY to include tu in any kind of CFP projections or conversations.

Didn't Baylor win the BDF last year? And Ok St is supposed to be pretty tough this year. (Or so I've heard)

Jimbo4win said:

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Artorias said:

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NoahAg said:

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rootube said:

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The OU roster was absolutely decimated in the off-season. Texas has a much easier path to the playoff than A&M. That is just a fact.

---

Exactly. I don't know why so many of you get so butthurt at stuff like this. The CFP takes 4 teams:

1) SEC winner (Bama or Georgia)
2) Big 10 winner (tOSU)
3) ACC winner (Clemson)
4) A 0 or 1 loss Notre Dame
OR
4) 2nd SEC team (Bama or Georgia)
OR
4) Big 12 winner

I suppose you could argue the Pac 12 (projected) winner should be higher, but still, it's 21% for t.u.
Still won't happen.

---

It is a joke because there are multiple other B12 teams, besides OU, who realistically have a higher chance of winning the B12 than Texas, yet you don't see any of them on the list.

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This-Baylor, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma(whose "decimated" roster is still vastly superior to Texas at full strength)-see the last 30 years.

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Those other B12 teams also have a terrible track record. So all things being equal a non horn B12 champ has a high probability of being left out. If the horns win the B12 they are a lock for a playoff spot. Also they have a roster that should on paper make them a favorite in every B12 game.

DTuba said:

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Didn't Baylor win the BDF last year? And Ok St is supposed to be pretty tough this year. (Or so I've heard)

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Did either one of them get serious consideration for a playoff spot? The answer to that question is the answer to the question above.

sip overrated in preseason? Happens every year.

Is it bad that I want them to get just a little better every year just to get anal raped when they hit the SEC?