5-7 teams are chosen for bowl games by their Academic Progress Rate from the previous year. Based on this article, the sips sit tied with the 5th best chance among 5-7 teams (See this article for further explanation)\ They are tied with Florida, which unfortunately I think the sips would get the tie-breaker over, if for no other reason than they have a coach.
They are behindWashington (already lost) Middle Tennessee State, Memphis, Rutgers, sips & Florida (tied)
This article shows 72 bowl eligible teams, with 82 slots to fill. Ball State's victory on Tuesday pushes it to 73 bowl eligible teams. Below are the 5-7 teams needing 1 win to secure eligibility.
Middle Tennessee State - Need to lose @FAU. Their 5-7 record would trump sips based on APR. FAU favored by -3.5
Memphis (980) - Need to lose to Tulane. Their 5-7 record would trump sips based on APR. Memphis favored by -6
Rutgers (979) - Need to lose to Maryland. Their 5-7 record would trump sips based on APR. Rutgers +1.5
*UPDATE* Maryland defeats Rutgers 40-16.
Florida (974) - I'm guessing on this one. I guess lose to FSU, which would create another 6-6 team in FSU, and then would be tied with sips. Maybe a bowl would want an SEC team over texas. IDK. Florida -3
*UPDATE* Florida defeats FSU 24-21
Ball State (969) - Already won, in at 6-6
FAU (965) - Beat Middle Tennessee. FAU -3
Syracuse (965) - Beat Pitt, unlikely. Syracuse +12.5
North Texas (961) - Beat UTSA, unlikely. North Texas +10
*UPDATE* UNT defeats UTSA 45-23
Old Dominion (961) - Doesn't matter, they play 5-6 Charlotte, will create 1 bowl eligible team. ODU -9.5
Troy (961) - Beat @Georgia State. GSU -6.5
*UPDATE* Georgia St defeats Troy 37-10
West Virginia (960) - Beat @Kansas (LOL) KU +15.5
TCU (959) - Already lost.
Virginia Tech (958) - Beat @Virginia. UVA -7
Maryland (956) - Beat Rutgers. Maryland -1.5
*UPDATE* Maryland defeats Rutgers 40-16
South Alabama (955) - Already lost
LSU (952) - LOSE. Tigers +6.5
San Jose State (952) - Already lost
Charlotte (945) - Doesn't matter vs Old Dominion. Charlotte +9.5
*UPDATE* Old Dominion defeats Charlotte 56-34
Tulsa (945) - Beat SMU. Ponies +6.5
Florida State (942) - Beat Florida. FSU +3
*UPDATE* Florida defeats FSU 24-21
The best/most likely scenario I can come up with is FAU beat MTSU, Maryland beats Rutgers, Florida beats FSU, Troy beats Georgia State, West Virginia beats KU, VT upsets UVA, Tulsa upsets a coach-less SMU, and ODU vs Charlotte doesn't matter.
That would create bowl eligible teams or 5-7 teams with better APR's in FAU (74), MTSU (75), Maryland (76), Rutgers (77), Troy (78), West Virginia (79), Virginia Tech (80), Tulsa (81), ODU/Charlotte (82). sips wouldn't play again until 9/3/2022, and would only have 1 game to play before preparing for Alabama. After getting their asses kicked by an SEC team in week 2, the cycle would begin again.
* Cal & USC both have 2 games remaining. Another bowl eligible team could be created if Cal either beats UCLA & USC, or USC beats both BYU & Cal, but Cal is +6.5 vs UCLA and USC is +7 to BYU. Neither scenarios are likely.
They are behind
This article shows 72 bowl eligible teams, with 82 slots to fill. Ball State's victory on Tuesday pushes it to 73 bowl eligible teams. Below are the 5-7 teams needing 1 win to secure eligibility.
Middle Tennessee State - Need to lose @FAU. Their 5-7 record would trump sips based on APR. FAU favored by -3.5
Memphis (980) - Need to lose to Tulane. Their 5-7 record would trump sips based on APR. Memphis favored by -6
Rutgers (979) - Need to lose to Maryland. Their 5-7 record would trump sips based on APR. Rutgers +1.5
*UPDATE* Maryland defeats Rutgers 40-16.
Florida (974) - I'm guessing on this one. I guess lose to FSU, which would create another 6-6 team in FSU, and then would be tied with sips. Maybe a bowl would want an SEC team over texas. IDK. Florida -3
*UPDATE* Florida defeats FSU 24-21
Ball State (969) - Already won, in at 6-6
FAU (965) - Beat Middle Tennessee. FAU -3
Syracuse (965) - Beat Pitt, unlikely. Syracuse +12.5
North Texas (961) - Beat UTSA, unlikely. North Texas +10
*UPDATE* UNT defeats UTSA 45-23
Old Dominion (961) - Doesn't matter, they play 5-6 Charlotte, will create 1 bowl eligible team. ODU -9.5
Troy (961) - Beat @Georgia State. GSU -6.5
*UPDATE* Georgia St defeats Troy 37-10
West Virginia (960) - Beat @Kansas (LOL) KU +15.5
Virginia Tech (958) - Beat @Virginia. UVA -7
Maryland (956) - Beat Rutgers. Maryland -1.5
*UPDATE* Maryland defeats Rutgers 40-16
LSU (952) - LOSE. Tigers +6.5
Charlotte (945) - Doesn't matter vs Old Dominion. Charlotte +9.5
*UPDATE* Old Dominion defeats Charlotte 56-34
Tulsa (945) - Beat SMU. Ponies +6.5
Florida State (942) - Beat Florida. FSU +3
*UPDATE* Florida defeats FSU 24-21
The best/most likely scenario I can come up with is FAU beat MTSU, Maryland beats Rutgers, Florida beats FSU, Troy beats Georgia State, West Virginia beats KU, VT upsets UVA, Tulsa upsets a coach-less SMU, and ODU vs Charlotte doesn't matter.
That would create bowl eligible teams or 5-7 teams with better APR's in FAU (74), MTSU (75), Maryland (76), Rutgers (77), Troy (78), West Virginia (79), Virginia Tech (80), Tulsa (81), ODU/Charlotte (82). sips wouldn't play again until 9/3/2022, and would only have 1 game to play before preparing for Alabama. After getting their asses kicked by an SEC team in week 2, the cycle would begin again.
* Cal & USC both have 2 games remaining. Another bowl eligible team could be created if Cal either beats UCLA & USC, or USC beats both BYU & Cal, but Cal is +6.5 vs UCLA and USC is +7 to BYU. Neither scenarios are likely.