If we win out convincingly, do we make the playoffs?
What must we hope happens that is not in our control?
What must we hope happens that is not in our control?
AggieDub14 said:
There are 16 teams with playoff hopes. And we ain't one of em.
That if we beat Georgia in the SEC championship game, then we do have a shot with two losses. If not, it does not matter.jphelmet said:
We win out and bama loses a game we have a 98% to make the playoff.
jphelmet said:AggieDub14 said:
There are 16 teams with playoff hopes. And we ain't one of em.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/
If we win out we have a legit shot. If bama loses and we win sec, we are pretty close to a lock.
I am not saying we will, I think we drop one or two more, Calzada just not good enough.
Thoughts on this idea? Say Cincy gets eliminated by SMU, the pac12 doesn't get one in, the ACC doesn't get one in, but OU and a Big10 school emerge as clear cut conference bests. Then Bama beats UGA by 21 in the SECCG. So we're sitting around looking at teams for the 4th spot like this...waltonloads11 said:
I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.
We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.
The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.
Alpha Texan said:Thoughts on this idea? Say Cincy gets eliminated by SMU, the pac12 doesn't get one in, the ACC doesn't get one in, but OU and a Big10 school emerge as clear cut conference bests. Then Bama beats UGA by 21 in the SECCG. So we're sitting around looking at teams for the 4th spot like this...waltonloads11 said:
I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.
We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.
The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.Teams currently ahead of us like Cincy, Oregon, Mich St, Iowa, Ole Miss, ND, Kentucky, and Wake Forest can all easily take losses, especially in conference championship games.
- 12-1 UGA who just got beat badly by Bama
- 11-1 Michigan who just got beat by Ohio State
- 10-2 Texas A&M who is on a 7ish? game win streak since their new QB settled in (the CFP committee accounts for injury) and has shown the ability to beat Bama
Who would get in among those teams?
beerad12man said:
Yes if we won out, AND bama lost, then winning out means 11-2 sec champions. We would be in
Two huge ifs that probably won't happen though.
waltonloads11 said:
I think if we win out and Bama loses to Georgia in the SEC ship, we have a shot at getting in. 2 SEC (Georgia and us), 1 Big 10, and either 1 Big 12 or Cincy.
We need Cincy to lose or a team like Iowa St to win the Big 12.
The "cleanest" path is to win out with a Bama loss, then win the game in Atlanta.
Nah, there really isn't. The SEC champions aren't being left out this year. The rest of the country isn't strong enough.Aggieair said:beerad12man said:
Yes if we won out, AND bama lost, then winning out means 11-2 sec champions. We would be in
Two huge ifs that probably won't happen though.
There's more if's than that. A lot of people in this thread need to take off the maroon galsses and realize that the "we're in the SEC" narrative isn't going to always save us. It didn't last year. The committee already demonstrated it was willing to take 2x 1-loss teams from the ACC instead of having a second SEC team with one loss.
If Iowa wins out, and beats an undefeated Michigan or MSU in the B1G CCG, the B1G would likely get 2 teams in. You could even have 1 loss tOSU win out, beat Iowa, then have 1 loss Michigan/MSU sneak in at #4 like Bama did in 2017.
If WF wins out and is an undefeated ACC champ, they may get in as well.
If OU wins out, they're in.
And as much as people on here hate to admit it, if Cincinnati wins out, they're. CFP ratings have been on the decline now because people have had fatigue with "the usual suspects." An undefeated G5 Cinderella story would be the ratings boost they desperately need.
Not to mention Oregon and ND could always win out and be in the mix.
Long story short, there's a lot of football that gets played outside the SEC that determines who gets in. While we would have probably the 2 of the best wins in the nation, we would still have 2 bad losses to teams that are unranked along with inconsistent QB play that the committee will consider. So if you think it's a done deal that the committee is going to take a 2 loss SEC team over undefeated or one loss teams just because they're in the SEC, then you need to go back and look at last year.
aTmAg said:
The winner of SEC will always get in. Even if it's with 2 losses.
Finally someone said it! Many Ags here are hiding behind the SEC as if we are entitled children (leave that to the t-sips, we Aggies earn our keep); as I have said before, winning the SEC does not guarantee a playoff bid, only being ranked high enough in the final polls does.Aggieair said:beerad12man said:
Yes if we won out, AND bama lost, then winning out means 11-2 sec champions. We would be in
Two huge ifs that probably won't happen though.
There's more if's than that. A lot of people in this thread need to take off the maroon glasses and realize that the "we're in the SEC" narrative isn't going to always save us. It didn't last year. The committee already demonstrated it was willing to take 2x 1-loss teams from the ACC instead of having a second SEC team with one loss.
If Iowa wins out, and beats an undefeated Michigan or MSU in the B1G CCG, the B1G would likely get 2 teams in. You could even have 1 loss tOSU win out, beat Iowa, then have 1 loss Michigan/MSU sneak in at #4 like Bama did in 2017.
If WF wins out and is an undefeated ACC champ, they may get in as well.
If OU wins out, they're in.
And as much as people on here hate to admit it, if Cincinnati wins out, they're in. CFP ratings have been on the decline now because people have had fatigue with "the usual suspects." An undefeated G5 Cinderella story would be the ratings boost they desperately need.
Not to mention Oregon and ND could always win out and be in the mix.
Long story short, there's a lot of football that gets played outside the SEC that determines who gets in. While we would have probably the 2 of the best wins in the nation, we would still have 2 bad losses to teams that are unranked along with inconsistent QB play that the committee will consider. So if you think it's a done deal that the committee is going to take a 2 loss SEC team over undefeated or one loss teams just because they're in the SEC, then you need to go back and look at last year.
2007 was a weird year due to widespread intra-conference cannibalization; many BCS AQ conference champions had two or more losses which enabled SEC champion LSU to be in the 2008 BCSCG due to their being ranked in the top two in the final BCS poll at season's end (if not, then they would have faced Hawaii [BCS non-AQ conference champion automatic qualifier] in the 2008 Sugar Bowl).Aggieair said:aTmAg said:
The winner of SEC will always get in. Even if it's with 2 losses.
The winner of the SEC has never had 2 losses in the CFP era. Yes, 2007 LSU made the BCS game. But I'd argue their losses were better than ours ("undefeated in regulation"). And if you bring up 2007 LSU while ignoring the context of that year, you're missing my main point from above, which is the necessary external cannibalization.
In 2007 there was only 1 undefeated team in the top ten (#10 Hawaii). Then there was only two 1-loss teams in the top ten (#1 tOSU and #7(? IIRC) Kansas. Every other team in the top ten had 2 losses. That's why a 2 loss LSU got in.
So no, a 2 loss SEC championship team is not guaranteed an automatic berth to the playoffs independent of everything else.