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You knew it was coming. Perryman Report is out.

9,007 Views | 48 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by W
Definitely Not A Cop
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AG
https://www.perrymangroup.com/publications/report/2021/07/28/potential-economic-consequences-of-texas-and-ou-leaving-the-big-12-conference/

Quote:

The University of Texas and The University of Oklahoma recently announced that they would soon be leaving the Big 12 Conference to join the Southeastern Conference. Without Texas and OU, the rest of the conference is undoubtedly facing smaller television deals, lower attendance, and other negative consequences. The result would be reductions in athletic revenue, tourism, and economic benefits for affected communities.

The Perryman Group looked at two representative scenarios. In Scenario 1, the Big 12 Conference remains largely intact with the remaining eight teams (and potentially expands), with television revenues and attendance patterns similar to those in the American Athletic Conference (adjusted for specific characteristics of the individual schools). Scenario 2 assumes the Big 12 Conference is not maintained and individual schools must seek opportunities elsewhere, with ultimate performance mirroring the five most successful athletic programs in the Mountain West Conference (the next most successful league following the American Athletic Conference) adjusted for specific characteristics of the individual schools.

For the communities across the Big 12 Conference, the realignment could be expected to cause losses of $938.9 million in annual gross product and 12,623 jobs under Scenario 1, with $1.3 billion in annual gross product and 18,063 jobs for Scenario 2.

Looking specifically at the Texas universities, if Texas joins the SEC, there will undoubtedly be benefits for the university and the Austin area. However, the Waco, Lubbock, and Fort Worth areas would face negative economic consequences due to effects on Baylor University, Texas Tech University, and Texas Christian University. Total annual losses for these three communities were found to include $397.7 million in annual gross product and 5,322 jobs under Scenario 1 and $569.1 million in annual gross product and 7,615 jobs under Scenario 2 (including multiplier effects).

College athletics is changing and it is understandable and even inevitable that schools will respond. At the same time, the consequences for other universities and how those might be mitigated is worthy of consideration.


Full report available at link.
Deplorable
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Quote:

Total annual losses for these three communities were found to include $397.7 million in annual gross product and 5,322 jobs under Scenario 1 and $569.1 million in annual gross product and 7,615 jobs under Scenario 2 (including multiplier effects).



Baylor to lose over half a billion dollars this time. Chip and Joanna better find a ****load more shiplap.
Wisconsin_Ag
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Translation:

The Big12 is screwed regardless what scenario the "analysts" come up with.
greg.w.h
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All the Big 12 schools invested heavily in facilities and coaching upgrades. If Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas all end up in the Big Ten, it would not surprise me. Baylor knew this day was coming and cleaned up its administration and athletics.

The only one I can't say for sure is better off is KSU. And I think they invested, too, but with a less splashy result.
Sully Dog
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I get Kansas, but why would the Big 10 take Iowa St and OSU. It's not like they bring in a big viewer base.

Oklahoma State only has 25,000 students. Big 10 would be better off getting the University of Houston
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
Wisconsin_Ag
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Quote:

The only one I can't say for sure is better off is KSU. And I think they invested, too, but with a less splashy result.

So you can say for sure that the Tards and Hillbillies ae better off?
aggiehawg
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Sully Dog said:

I get Kansas, but why would the Big 10 take Iowa St and OSU. It's not like they bring in a big viewer base.
B1G has announced they are not looking to expand but if they were, it would be only AAU schools. In the B1G, it's all about the research money which dwarfs the conference sports money.

So Okie Lite never even gets up to bat for them. Iowa State doesn't have enough extra value to them to pay their own freight. Kansas is in athletic department disarray right now.
greg.w.h
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Wisconsin_Ag said:

Quote:

The only one I can't say for sure is better off is KSU. And I think they invested, too, but with a less splashy result.

So you can say for sure that the Tards and Hillbillies ae better off?
Disprove it.
Macarthur
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So, reports on twitter are saying the PAC12 is not looking to add any Big12 schools.

I think what the Big 12 needs to do is try and act quick and make some moves to try and counter this. Nothing is going to replace tu & OU, but this might make them viable.

Reach out to Central Florida, Cinn, UH & BYU. That would put them at 12 and they could be working on the next 4 to try and get to 16. Not sure what other options they have if they want to keep it alive.
whatthehey78
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Would hope that in future B12 Conference meetings (until such time it is or may be dissolved), the two seats reserved for ou and tu, legs be sawed off 2 or 3 inches, such that only the top half of their rep's faces are seen. Also, insist they have to raise their hands to address the Chair...then, just ignore them. Finally, all condiments (coffee, etc.) be served ONLY to the "faithful" 8 attendees and any voting...the tally stop with them.

Payback's a beyotch. Make it painful, or at least embarrassing!
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
W
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Perryman is much closer to being right this time.

losing $25 MM per year in annual TV revenue is really, really bad for the Tech, BU, and TCU athletic departments.

and losing OU & t.u. as visitors for football games is a big loss too.

there is no reason to buy season tickets for the fans/alumni of those schools. Just walk up to the gate and buy 40-yard lines seats for the 1 or 2 games you might be interested in attending
W
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looking back...from 1996 to 2011...

the Red Raiders had both A&M and OU coming to Lubbock in odd-numbered years.

that made for a nice home schedule --- but now both are gone
Houstonag
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I wonder who paid for this "report".
TexanJeff
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Why would Tech revenue drop to AAC or Mountain West?

They are likely to be Pac12
aggiehawg
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W said:

Perryman is much closer to being right this time.

losing $25 MM per year in annual TV revenue is really, really bad for the Tech, BU, and TCU athletic departments.

and losing OU & t.u. as visitors for football games is a big loss too.

there is no reason to buy season tickets for the fans/alumni of those schools. Just walk up to the gate and buy 40-yard lines seats for the 1 or 2 games you might be interested in attending
Indeed the numbers are there just in the loss of conference revenue.

Last time it was just damage to Waco's economy every other year and too speculative.
SidetrackAg
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aggiehawg
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TexanJeff said:

Why would Tech revenue drop to AAC or Mountain West?

They are likely to be Pac12
Only if USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon bolt for the B1G and the PAC needs to back fill to survive.

Tech doesn't bring enough value to the deal to pay their own freight.
12thMan9
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So, PAC12 needs 4 more teams. Big Can't Count needs 2. ACC needs 2. Get these to 16 teams & we have 4 Power conferences.

Want to go to 5? How about AAC?

Big Can't Count invites ND & Cinn from AAC, gives them 16 & drops AAC to 10 for now.

ACC invites UCF(biggest university in the country by enrollment btw) & ECU. Gives them 16 & drops AAC to 8.

AAC(Bowlsby's favorite league) & conference recently known as the Big12 merge, giving them 16.

PAC12 asks BYU, Boise St., San Jose St, & Colo St.(or whoever they deem attractive from the Mountain West).

That would then give us 5 conferences w/16 teams.

Just a thought.
Ronnie '88
_mpaul
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I'm surprised it's not just one line: "Ah, F%^& it."
Paper. An insane deer. Taco meat.
TexanJeff
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You don't think Pac16 with Okie Lite, Tceh, BYU and either TCU or Baylor improves that conference?
aggiehawg
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TexanJeff said:

You don't think Pac16 with Okie Lite, Tceh, BYU and either TCU or Baylor improves that conference?
No I don't. Why do you think so?
TexanJeff
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2 reasons.

BYU has a National Mormon market.
Eyeballs in Texas and Oklahoma for the PAC12 network.

Simple
Jimtim1216
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Macarthur said:

So, reports on twitter are saying the PAC12 is not looking to add any Big12 schools.

I think what the Big 12 needs to do is try and act quick and make some moves to try and counter this. Nothing is going to replace tu & OU, but this might make them viable.

Reach out to Central Florida, Cinn, UH & BYU. That would put them at 12 and they could be working on the next 4 to try and get to 16. Not sure what other options they have if they want to keep it alive.
I agree. Get it to 16 right away. Memphis, SMU, Coastal Carolina, UTEP. ( UTEP to keep it Texas centric)
Jimtim1216
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TexanJeff said:

You don't think Pac16 with Okie Lite, Tceh, BYU and either TCU or Baylor improves that conference?
No. Would you really tune in for any match up with these schools?
aggiehawg
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TexanJeff said:

2 reasons.

BYU has a National Mormon market.
Eyeballs in Texas and Oklahoma for the PAC12 network.

Simple
Wrong on both. Few people on the west coast care about college ball. Fewer people on the west coach will watch a game with tech or OSU in it and not that many people in either state would watch either. And they sure as hell won't travel to Lubbock and Stillwater.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

And they sure as hell won't travel to Lubbock and Stillwater.
Those that do make the trip will only do it once.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Bluecat_Aggie94
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Wow. That was fast.
Macarthur
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Jimtim1216 said:

Macarthur said:

So, reports on twitter are saying the PAC12 is not looking to add any Big12 schools.

I think what the Big 12 needs to do is try and act quick and make some moves to try and counter this. Nothing is going to replace tu & OU, but this might make them viable.

Reach out to Central Florida, Cinn, UH & BYU. That would put them at 12 and they could be working on the next 4 to try and get to 16. Not sure what other options they have if they want to keep it alive.
I agree. Get it to 16 right away. Memphis, SMU, Coastal Carolina, UTEP. ( UTEP to keep it Texas centric)

The only tweak I might make to this is that I might consider UTSA over UTEP. I think they are on the upswing and, of course, SA is a bigger market.
FriscoKid
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Bluecat_Aggie94 said:

Wow. That was fast.
W
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and of course the major problem for the "new" or "modified" Big 12...

they have to find a TV network interested in televising their games...for something more than $10 MM per year (i.e. C-USA money).

and that will not be easy
W
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and regarding Tech and OSU to the Pac-12...

that would be the equivalent to West Virginia in the Big 12.

just too far away
Bluecat_Aggie94
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Maybe it's my age... maybe its my proximity to Lubbock... but am I the only one that feels bad for Texas Tech? (but really don't care about TCU and Baylor)
aggiehawg
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W said:

and of course the major problem for the "new" or "modified" Big 12...

they have to find a TV network interested in televising their games...for something more than $10 MM per year (i.e. C-USA money).

and that will not be easy
No it won't be easy.
W
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Tech is staring at a staggering loss in revenue.

their nightmare is coming true
agent-maroon
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Bluecat_Aggie94 said:

Maybe it's my age... maybe its my proximity to Lubbock... but am I the only one that feels bad for Texas Tech? (but really don't care about TCU and Baylor)
Sometimes for an instant. Have lots of friends & family who are raiders and I grew up out there. My best friend (for the last 50 years) is a huge tech fan and still lives in Lubbock. But whenever those feelings happen I also reflect about how my family and I have been treated as Aggies and it quickly fades away.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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