aggiehawg said:

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Dominion Caracas Branch said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Dominion Caracas Branch said:

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I think all of this happens as quickly as possible.

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I think it goes right to mega conferences or gor has to expire.

The acc is owned by espn, so we know they will bow to espn's desires to some extent.

The x-factors are big10 and pac12.

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If we go to mega conferences, would the SEC take Iowa State and Kansas?

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I hope not. I'd rather take a NC/VA school and let the ACC take those two. I hope if we do mega conferences we basically create one or two conferences comprising about 48 teams total. If not then just do a p4 with about 64 teams total.

Though I think the first one I presented could put cfb in a precarious situation long term.

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Any ACC team is virtually a non-starter. Their exit fees are high and the GOR isn't up until the 2030s. ACC is also very litigious. They sue at the drop of a hat. Just don't see that happening. Would much prefer it but don't believe it is feasible.

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That's the thing if espn is driving this, they can exert a lot of influence over the acc and sec. It may not be that espn has some grand endgame but desperate to get out of lhn/big12 financial fiasco but keep valuable properties like tu and ou under their thumbs. Like I think Slive would have been much more cautious on this process. sankey is just saying how high after espn says to jump. Why couldn't they exert same influence on acc or has sec just become that week (I agree with others I think the actual increase in money bringing in just whorn and ou is not that great).

I do think isu and ku could be attractive to big10 if they are looking to expand. wvu to acc in their case, and maybe tech/okiest to pac12. But I don't think that plays out that quickly as of now. We will see in the coming months.

Let's also examine from the SEC perspective. I LOVE the fact that each school must be considered separately in our voting process. Can you imagine the glory that would ensue if OU is accepted and Texas is not? Yes, they say they are coming as a package deal only but if OU had a yes vote to joint the SEC and Texas got a no, the Sooners wouldn't think twice about leaving Texas in the dust. Additionally, wouldn't it be smart for the SEC to add OU in the West and add a school in the East first to balance it out as opposed to two West schools? Yes, I know the goal is to get to 20 for a mega conference but the sound of adding OU and Virginia, VA Tech or N Carolina does wonders for expansion and eliminates the horn baggage.

Also, I can't for the life of me see why a school like Georgia or Alabama would want to vote yes on Texas in the SEC given their(Bama and OU) strength in recruiting the state. Yes, money I get it..but aren't there other combinations of schools that could add big money without the baggage? Has anyone considered that the the financial numbers being floated now of adding Texas are the same BS that we were all told the Longhorn network would bring a decade ago?

Tex117 said:

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I think all of this happens as quickly as possible.

Cross the board. College football is about to change by orders of magnitude...better to fine a place while the music is still going rather than when it stops.

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No doubt t.u. and OU want it to happen as fast as possible, but their desires won't decide the timing unless they are willing to pay for it. Unless they want to pay the exit fee penalty, they are beholden to Texas Tech, Okie State, tcu, etc. securing their future first before they let t.u. and OU off the hook for the GOR commitment.

And unlike how t.u. and OU are handling things and just don't care about the others, my guess is the other 8 Big 12 conference teams will be in 100% lock-step agreement to not let t.u. and OU off the hook until ALL of them have figured out their future, and that is not going to happen quickly as none of them are going to be OK with taking a huge financial hit or being in an expanded AAC, C-USA, etc.

As it stands, t.u. and OU have made notice, they can now petition the SEC, SEC can extend an invitation starting July 2025, cow and OU play 21/22/23/24 in the Big 12, and then they can walk away with no issues or $ obligations to the Big 12 whatsoever.

I don't think the other 8 Big 12 teams are going to scramble and work as quickly as possible for the benefit of t.u. and OU. No doubt they are scrambling, but they can take their time, 18-24 months if need be.

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I don't think the other 8 Big 12 teams are going to scramble and work as quickly as possible for the benefit of t.u. and OU. No doubt they are scrambling, but they can take their time, 18-24 months if need be.

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This makes a ton of sense given what we know. The weird thing is that while 4 years is not that long, it is a lifetime in cfb. What if A&M goes on a Clemson like tear? Especially if ou and tu keep their current status (playoff loser and coaching carousel). Does the sec look as attractive to them? Do they seek easier waters and more money (pac12/acc)?

Are you saying they will stick around until the GOR expires? I don't see any scenario in which that happens.

They will pay money to the remaining schools and get out early is how I see this going.

Panama Red said:

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Are you saying they will stick around until the GOR expires? I don't see any scenario in which that happens.

They will pay money to the remaining schools and get out early is how I see this going.

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If I am Baylor or TCU I'm sticking with 2 years worth of payouts which would be around 70 million each for their votes to dissolve. That's assuming there are not enough votes to dissolve because they have landing spots.

Bijan's knees are going to be prime targets until tu-okie get out. They will pay $$$ to get out asap. The fan fights will be entertaining. Hopefully nobody gets seriously hurt.

Curious, before the vote are the members going to discuss scheduling and conference alignments. What cross-conference games are no longer going to be existing. Seems like Alabama/Auburn most likely will move to East side and its impact... Shouldn't the championship game rotate to other stadiums? Should other teams be invited if it is all about the money then shouldn't Notre Dame be considered, maybe Kansas for their BBall? Is it time they revisit Clemson, GT and FSU?

https://static.big12sports.com/custompages/pdfs/handbook/bylaws.pdf

Further reading of the Big 12 Bylaws Section 3 WITHDRAWAL AND SANCTIONS is very interesting.

• We know the exit fee is two (2) years worth of GOR distributions, so ~ $72 mill. each is the # we see most frequently. I think t.u. could pay that, but not OU. And no, ESPN can't just monetize the rest of the LHN contract and give it to t.u., that 1000000% would be tortious interference and lead to an immediate lawsuit ESPN would lose.
• But it is NOT just two years worth of GOR $$ they would have to pony up to get out.
• Notice Date / Effective Date. So, notice in July 2021. The way the Bylaws read the Effective Date would be June 30, 2023, not 2022, from now until 6/30/2023 that is deemed the "Interim Period"
• t.u. and OU have forfeited rights to any and all $$ from the Big 12 from now until 6/30/23 during the interim period. That is substantial. So you can effectively add that to the 2 years GOR exit fee buyout if they want to get out early.

Obviously everything is a negotiation, there is a $ figure the Big 12 will agree to to let t.u. and OU walk, but it would likely be well north of $100 million each. As it stands, the Big 12 will get the $72 mill. from both. But also, and this is critical, for the rest of 2021 and through 7/2025, the other 8 Big 12 members would be splitting t.u. and OU shares as well. That is why the negotiated buyout would be more than the $72 mill. exit penalty, perhaps substantially more.

From cow and OUs perspective, they hope the Big 12 dissolves with the rats jumping off the sinking ship. I'm quite certain the other 8 are going to be VERY slow and deliberate with their decisions and actions moving forward, and be targeting a 7/2025 date to join a new conference or have new members join the Big 12. Other than maybe KU and ISU to the B1G, I don't see good options and favorable landing spots for the others. Tech assumes they could go the PAC. No offense to my friends in Lubbock and tech grads/fans.... but USC/UCLA/Stanford/Oregon/Washington are not just chomping at the bit to play football in Lubbock, and no Tech does not add enough viewers in Texas to drive value for the PAC.

Ultimately the best play for the Big 12 is to extend invites to BYU, UH, UCF, etc., and still be a legit conference, the best G5/G6 conference, but play it out and collect as much $$ from t.u. and OU as they can.

So many people are assuming t.u. and OU will be in the SEC in 2022, I think 2025 is as likely as 2022, and it will more likely be 2023 or 2024. But a huge buyout will be paid to do so.

For A&M to join the SEC, once all the dust settled and everything was agreed, we had to get an indemnification letter agreement signed by the Big 12 and every member of the conference. We literally visited the Big 12 office and multiple campuses to physically get a piece of paper signed. t.u. and OU are going to have to get the same.

How long do you think it's going to be before TX Tech and Okie State are going to be ready to sign off on that? It won't be until they have their future secured and they not only are not incentivized to do so as quickly as possible, even if they are, they need to have interested parties. This move is all about $$, and TX Tech, Okie State, etc. can all be bought off, but it's not going to be for a penny less than what they can contractually get out of the existing contract.

And us, along with the rest of the SEC, will be paying it.

No, t.u. and OU won't get a penny, dime or nickel from the SEC until they are members. They can't be members until they are out of the Big 12.

Much like the ESPN LHN payoff concept, any $$ from an SEC advance on SEC distributions would 1000% be TI and trigger an immediate lawsuit the SEC would lose.

Jarrin' Jay said:

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No, t.u. and OU won't get a penny, dime or nickel from the SEC until they are members. They can't be members until they are out of the Big 12.

Much like the ESPN LHN payoff concept, any $$ from an SEC advance on SEC distributions would 1000% be TI and trigger an immediate lawsuit the SEC would lose.

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Agree. There will be dollars, big dollars exchanged and ESPN and the SEC need to be completely away and arm's length to that.