When we host Alabama on 10/9, Alabama will probably be a double-digit favorite, but I hope we play our hearts out. If we somehow upset Alabama and finish 11-1 or 12-0, we would win the SEC West. By beating Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship Game, we would punch a ticket to the College Football Playoffs.
Realistically, I predict we will finish 10-2 with loses to Alabama and LSU. Besides Alabama, every game should be winnable, but LSU is still a very hostile environment. Since 2010, LSU has lost just 10 home games in the last 11 years, and half of those loses were to Alabama in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020. Mississippi State has two wins in Baton Rouge in 2014 and 2020. The only other three teams to win in Baton Rouge were Arkansas in 2015, Florida in 2016, and Troy in 2017. Before that game, we will likely be 10-1, and LSU will likely be 9-2. If that's the case, the season finale at Baton Rouge will decide 2nd place in the SEC West and potentially a NY6 bowl berth.