Right now we are currently the #4 team nationally for the '22 recruiting cycle with mostly all of our class coming from the Houston area. With many of the top in-state players still getting poached out of state to the top programs like Bama, OSU, OU, LSU etc. If we were to keep those top recruits in state and in relation subtract those players from other classes would it be enough to get us over the top?

I'm not saying lock down the state because there is no way that happens completely. However; if we were to recruit Texas like LSU does Louisianna and be able to get the first pick of all top talent and then just fill in the rest nationally does that provide enough talent to overtake the Bama's and OSU's on the field?

I'd venture to guess Jimbo has a significant number of out of state offers. Those are just tougher to pull in relation to Texas kids,.

Any top Texas D1 program no matter how much momentum they have will never lockdown the state like LSU does in Louisiana. Sure, history has shown that tu and A&M have had 5-10 years of in state recruiting dominance from time to time, but LSU has no in state competition. They mainly have had to fend off Bama and FSU (back in the day) for a few recruits and when a kid does sign with an OOS school, LSU fans threaten or excommunicate them and their family.

We definitely need to recruit at a national level to be in playoff conversation. That doesn't mean we don't go after every top player in the state, but Fisher has been bringing in top talent from the NE and Florida specifically and that should continue.

Also, some position groups in Texas have been weak in any given year, like LB, so you definitely recruit areas like the Southeast for some defensive players along with other areas where Elko has ties like NJ.

Didn't the sips essentially do that during their run under Mack?

I think the recruiting numbers tell part of the story. The finish this year is a more complete look especially if you see how balanced it was between offensive and defensive contributions.

There is always room for growth, of course, and talent matters. But the trajectory also sells the program. And our marketing is superb!!!

Mayor West said:

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Didn't the sips essentially do that during their run under Mack?

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Mack will forever be the last coach in the state of Texas...that could consistently win big with just Texas high school players.

the 7-on-7 malaise had not completely infected the state during his glory run (2000 to 2009).

but now for the front 7 and o-line...have to recruit out-of-state to fill the 2-deep (to compete in the SEC)

Mayor West said:

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Didn't the sips essentially do that during their run under Mack?

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For the most part although Stoops and OU were getting theirs during that time period. LSU, Georgia and Ohio State own their state no matter if they have a drop off in their record so it is easier for them to maintain that. You could throw Bama in there, but Auburn has had stints where they were getting in state players that Bama wanted. It is harder for Texas schools to maintain that in state dominance. Mack did it and Sherill and Slocum did it for awhile too.

We are definitely in play with all the top players, but OU, tu and A&M will definitely be after a lot of the same top QBs, WR and CB for years to come because the Big XII can still appeal to some of those position groups. We have a clear advantage for most of the in state defensive players that prefer to play in the SEC. A lot of the offensive lineman prefer our style of play so we should continue to do well recruiting OL. The annoying thing for me is the few that Ohio State and Bama cherry pick out of the state every year. That really didn't hurt us last year as much as it did tu, but I would like to see that trend decline in our favor.

LSU has two other schools in the same division as them, A&M has something like 10-15.

There is you answer about why we can't lock down the state. Until the big 12 collapses, at least.

Worrying about poaching of out of state players is a problem for teams not currently in the top five recruiting ranking. Let OU, horn and the rest of the B12 worry about that one.

If we could nail down 15-18 of the top 30 players in Texas and sprinkle in 7-10 studs from other states I am quite confident we would be playing for and winning national titles. The exciting news is we are getting closer to that objective.

That and Bama still takes what it wants from LA for the most part.

Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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If we could nail down 15-18 of the top 30 players in Texas and sprinkle in 7-10 studs from other states I am quite confident we would be playing for and winning national titles. The exciting news is we are getting closer to that objective.

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This was my thinking with my original post. As of right now we only get 5-10 of the top players in the state if we could swing the 2-3 that go to Ohio state every year and 4-5 that go to Bama every year we would be right in the mix while hurting their programs. OSU's class looks a lot different without Burton and Ewers. All I'm saying is we keep guys like Waddle in state the last few years looks a lot different for both us and Bama, and that is just one player.

I think people put too much weight in recruiting class rankings and recruit star count.

I trust Jimbo. Whatever he says goes.

agmag90 said:

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I think people put too much weight in recruiting class rankings and recruit star count.

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In some ways yes and in other ways no. Bud Elliot wrote a piece on statistical %s of college football rosters since 2013. No team has won a national title that didn't have at least 50% of the roster as 4 and or 5 star players. Obviously bama doesn't win it every year and they are the most talent rich program in America, but they have won like 6 out of the last 12 titles so talent does make a big difference. The one slight caveat to this is a generational super star quaterback who can cover up some talent short comings.

This year, LSU got 7/11 high impact recruits from La. 64%. We got 9/50 from TX, 18%.

IF we got 36% of the high impact recruits from TX, we would be on par with Bama. We wouldnt even need to go out of state, other than for a LB every other year.

agmag90 said:

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I think people put too much weight in recruiting class rankings and recruit star count.

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Yeah, people like Saban, Ryan Day, Kirby Smart, etc.

"The Bamas and the OSUs"...Is OSU good? I am not sure we didn't overtake OSU last year.

I don't think you can have an elite defense recruiting only Texas because there's a tendency for Texas HS to put their best talent on offense. A great athlete that's 6-2, 210 probably plays WR here instead of LB. There are some great defensive players but you would have to get nearly everyone of them.

looking at last year's front 7 two-deep for the A&M defense...

Tyree Johnson
McKinley Jackson
Aaron Hansford
Andre White

those out-of-staters were very important. The defense needed them

lil_frog8 said:

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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

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If we could nail down 15-18 of the top 30 players in Texas and sprinkle in 7-10 studs from other states I am quite confident we would be playing for and winning national titles. The exciting news is we are getting closer to that objective.

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This was my thinking with my original post. As of right now we only get 5-10 of the top players in the state if we could swing the 2-3 that go to Ohio state every year and 4-5 that go to Bama every year we would be right in the mix while hurting their programs. OSU's class looks a lot different without Burton and Ewers. All I'm saying is we keep guys like Waddle in state the last few years looks a lot different for both us and Bama, and that is just one player.

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If you look back, jimbo has gotten out of state players of similar ilk to fill in where we missed on top Texas players or there were voids in Texas talent for a particular position such as LB or DLine

lil_frog8 said:

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Right now we are currently the #4 team nationally for the '22 recruiting cycle with mostly all of our class coming from the Houston area. With many of the top in-state players still getting poached out of state to the top programs like Bama, OSU, OU, LSU etc. If we were to keep those top recruits in state and in relation subtract those players from other classes would it be enough to get us over the top?

I'm not saying lock down the state because there is no way that happens completely. However; if we were to recruit Texas like LSU does Louisianna and be able to get the first pick of all top talent and then just fill in the rest nationally does that provide enough talent to overtake the Bama's and OSU's on the field?

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If A&M got the #1 player in the state at every position every year, then we would probably be close to Bama's level. Unfortunately, we would not be very good at LB most years and it would be virtually impossible to do that. Even tu did not get every player in the state with Mack Brown.

In 2020, if we had taken the top players at every position we would have finished the composite rankings with 315.64 points. Georgia was #1 that year with 313.16. I took 25 players and took the best at every position. Obviously, there were some in-state players that were ranked lower than out of state players that we took but I took only Texas players.

1- QB, 1-RB, 1-APB, 1-TE, 3-WR, 5-OL
2-DE, 2-DT, 3-LB, 5-DB
1-K

Obviously, we could argue this configuration on any given year but it is probably a fair representation. The top composite players won't end up being the top players. The top TE that year went to ou and has already transferred. I'm also not doubting Jimbo's ability or his desire to go out of state. I was simply curious to see what would happen if we were only able to recruit Texas and we got first dibs on any player we wanted.

Ugly said:

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agmag90 said:

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I think people put too much weight in recruiting class rankings and recruit star count.

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Yeah, people like Saban, Ryan Day, Kirby Smart, etc.

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There is somewhat of a chicken/egg theory here. If not one P5 team offered Quinn Ewers, I doubt he would be #1 in the country. Obviously, that is an exaggerated example but the rankings have to take into account the desirability of a kid to the coaches you mentioned above.

If you want to be a national power you gotta recruit nationally.

Jimbo4win said:

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"The Bamas and the OSUs"...Is OSU good? I am not sure we didn't overtake OSU last year.

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In terms of on-field last year, it would've been a very good game between Ags and Buckeyes last season... "overtaking" them is a different question. In the last 4 years we have had a higher ranked recruiting class than them 1 time, and they've been to the playoffs multiple times.

We are on a trajectory to get to that elite tier, and can make some serious headway this season, but they lock down their state and recruit nationally in a big way. They are also the only school in Bama's orbit when it comes to producing NFL talent in the past few seasons.

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What I'm hearing in your question is "would a program pulling the top talent in TX, and that alone, be enough to hang with Bama?"

I think the answer is yes.

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I answer is no. Most of the 300+ DT's that can run are from the deep South, not TX. Texas is loaded with great QB's, WRs, and other offensive studs, but defensive linemen/defensive players win championships.

The answer is no (LOL)........

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Most of the 300+ DT's that can run are from the deep South, not TX.

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I stand corrected. I went back and looked TX just does not produce the DTs or even SDEs most years.

Meximan said:

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If you want to be a national power you gotta recruit nationally.

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Add to this and dominate your local region. It is where you get your highest rated recruits and then fill in the voids nationally. IMO

Each year Jimbo is gleaning Texas top talent better and filling in any gaps nationally. Average recruit ranking is increasing each year. It's building to elite levels and given the exceptional player development along the way we are in striking distance of bama. Not equal across the board, but within range to be dangerous.

Texas gonna Texas...which includes drinking their own bath water and also thinking they have rent-free living in everyone's brain...oh...wait. That wasn't offensive to you was it???

IMO, there's enough talent to win a national title if you can lock down any one of these (metro) CITIES:

Houston
DFW
Los Angeles
Miami (willing to debate this one)

Or any one of these States

Texas, Florida, and California (obviously)
Georgia
Louisiana

That was my reaction too, but the stats do not bear it out. TX does not produce enough DL and LB.

Below are the # of high impact recruits throughout the state, according to numbers:

Year: DT / SDE / LB
21: 1 / 3 / 3
20: 1 / 2 / 2
19: 2 / 1 / 2
18: 4 / 1 / 2

Neither Houston nor DFW alone would produce the necessary defensive talent most years, unless a coach was incredible at scouting and developing 3*s.