-17 just seems automatic in my mind. How could anyone in their right mind take the Ags there? What are we missing about Bama?

Saban will play all his backups.

Biggest jump in improvement is after the first two games. We won't win this game but we should play A much cleaner game.

Plus bama always plays a close game early on. Saban will talk about how they can't win playing like that blah blah blah.

We need that game to be played on Saturday by bama to have a chance or at least keep it close

They beat Missouri by 19, so maybe Vegas thinks we are two points better than Missouri? Lol. I don't know, seems about right to me to be honest.

Vegas has to make big money somehow. Gotta shift the numbers a few points on some of the games.

Maybe it's because they think we aren't going to fumble it 5 times this week.

Maybe it's because they think our defense is going to be pretty damn good.

Maybe it's because there's only going to be 20,000 in the stands in Tuscaloosa.

Maybe it's because they've seen numerous teams (OU, Texas, Iowa St, Okie St, LSU, Navy, Notre Dame) have WTF games when it comes to the spread already this year.

It's not a normal year, games are going to be sloppy, especially early, that creates uncertainties for Vegas.

I see a 30-20 type game.

RealTalk said:

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UncleNateFitch said:

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RealTalk said:

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Vegas' odds makers are way smarter than TexAgs' people. This has been proven time after time.

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You mean like last week when smart Vegas favored us 30.5 over Vanderbilt? And us dumb TexAgs people said no way, Mond sucks?

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If you're dumb enough to use one single instance to try to disprove the trend, then I can't help you.

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What were we against the spread last year with Mond?

elen2009 said:

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Year Ala A&M Diff
2015 41 23 18
2016 33 14 19
2017 27 19 8
2018 45 23 22
2019 47 28 19

Avg 38.6 21.4 17.2

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So 20.5 pts with Mond the last 2 years

So at -17.5, Ags would have covered once in the last five years.

UncleNateFitch said:

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elen2009 said:

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Year Ala A&M Diff
2015 41 23 18
2016 33 14 19
2017 27 19 8
2018 45 23 22
2019 47 28 19

Avg 38.6 21.4 17.2

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So 20.5 pts with Mond the last 2 years

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Mond started the 2017 game as well. This kind of reminds me of the 2017 game. We had looked awful going into that one and I think Bama was favored by 27. I would have bet a whole lot of $$$ on bama to cover in that one and was shocked at the result.

Vegas likes our run D and they are guessing two things: 1. Saban pulls his starters 2. We play our young fast guys that score late.

I prefer to look at A&M vs. Alabama during 2012-2013 seasons.

Differential
2012 +5
2013 -7

Two good ball teams playing each other those two years.

LatinAggie1997 said:

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Vegas likes our run D and they are guessing two things: 1. Saban pulls his starters 2. We play our young fast guys that score late.

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Probably right. Bama had Mizzou down 35-3 late in the third, it looked like an easy cover (19 points I think), and once Saban pulled his starters the Tigers got some late trash touchdowns to beat the spread.

What's funny is that we could lose by 3 points and people on here would still be complaining about something. Anything short of shocking the world by winning will have this place in continued free-fall.

We pretty much shocked the world the way we won last week.

All Vegas has to go by early are camp reports. They are harder to beat as the season goes on.

UncleNateFitch said:

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RealTalk said:

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Vegas' odds makers are way smarter than TexAgs' people. This has been proven time after time.

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You mean like last week when smart Vegas favored us 30.5 over Vanderbilt? And us dumb TexAgs people said no way, Mond sucks?

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Turnovers Change games. We left a lot. And I mean a lot of pts on the board. Vegas is much more consistent than TexAgs.

Geriatric Punk said:

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What's funny is that we could lose by 3 points and people on here would still be complaining about something. Anything short of shocking the world by winning will have this place in continued free-fall.

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Loosing to Bama by 3 would shock my world.

Geriatric Punk said:

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What's funny is that we could lose by 3 points and people on here would still be complaining about something. Anything short of shocking the world by winning will have this place in continued free-fall.

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even if we win, people will complain. You underestimate texags.

RealTalk said:

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Vegas' odds makers are way smarter than TexAgs' people. This has been proven time after time.

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TexAgs people don't understand betting lines, this has been proven time after time.

Probably seeing that our offensive play calling was pretty vanilla, our execution offensively was extremely sub-par, and the fact that Bryant-Denny won't be as hostile as usual.

With that being said, Bama 42-6. Seth small comes up huge with 2 FG's late in the 4th quarter

Most of us were spot on saying take vandy and the points. We know what jimbo does in blowouts.

I would lay the points if forced to bet bama. But, would not be surprised by if we play them tough and lose by 10-14. Jimbos teams don't quit. In losses, jimbo is usually good for a late score against the second team.

The question is what Saban will do. He usually likes to take it to us, but we have not played this early in a while. My guess is that saban calls off the dogs in the mid 4tj quarter, if up 3 scores or more. He will want to get reps for his young reserves.

I would probably set the line at 20, but that is just gut. Have not even looked at fpis line.

In 2018, we played Alabama at Tuscaloosa in Week 4 on 9/22 and got crushed 45-23. The previous time we played them in September was in 2013, when we lost to Alabama 49-42 on 9/14/13. We usually play them in October, but this time it happens to be our 2nd game. Since this game is on the road, I believe a more reasonable line would be 24 points.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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schwabbin said:

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-17 just seems automatic in my mind. How could anyone in their right mind take the Ags there? What are we missing about Bama?

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You're playing different games. Vegas is putting out a betting line to get equal bets on both sides to guarantee house money without exposing them to undue risk of an upset. You're thinking they're making a forecast or prediction of how the game will actually go.

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Thank you. It's always amazing how many people can't understand what a spread really is or how they are made. They are not trying to nail the actual result.

Going to practice numbers with my toddler by counting the fumbles.

"Seven. Seven fumbles. Ah-ah-ahhh!"

Geriatric Punk said:

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What's funny is that we could lose WIN by 13 points and people on here would still be complaining about something. Most of TexAgs would still be calling for Mond to be benched.

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FIFY

UncleNateFitch said:

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RealTalk said:

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Vegas' odds makers are way smarter than TexAgs' people. This has been proven time after time.

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You mean like last week when smart Vegas favored us 30.5 over Vanderbilt? And us dumb TexAgs people said no way, Mond sucks?

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Way to win one. Now can you do it consistently?

Anyone thinking this is a no brainer is a fool. Could easily go either way.