If the conference champions of SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Big 10 all finish undefeated or one loss, the College Football Playoff Committee will probably select all four of these teams for the four playoff spots. Before we can contend for a National Championship, we have to beat Alabama and finish with just one loss to win the SEC West. If we do that, we have a good chance of beating Georgia or Florida in the SEC Championship Game. By accomplishing both feats, we would get into the playoffs.
If one of the conference champions has two or more losses, that would open the door for one-loss at-large teams. In 2016, Penn State defeated Ohio State 24-21, won the Big 10 East, and defeated Wisconsin 38-31 in the Big 10 Championship Game, but lost two games to Pittsburgh and Michigan. As a result, 11-1 Ohio State got selected over 11-2 Big 10 Champion Penn State. In 2017, Auburn defeated Alabama in the Iron Bowl to win the SEC West, but got crushed 28-7 by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to fall to 10-3. So, 11-1 Alabama got the final playoff spot over 11-2 Big 10 Champion Ohio State and 12-1 Wisconsin, who was undefeated before the Big 10 Championship Game loss.
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