Jimbo's not going to come out and say it. Must deduce by looking at the pieces. The question is where can we create the mismatches? There are only 2 answers: scheme or personnel. Most SEC DCs are too good to routinely get beat by scheme alone. Most of the mismatch must come from the personnel. We can mismatch most LBs/Rovers/NBs with the RBs and hopefully the TEs.
The personnel is the key, not the formation. Jimbo will load up one side when he wants 1 high. He will stay balanced when he wants both high or to punish a safety for shading a side.
Because, what do we know?
Bowl- We ran for 250 yards and averaged 6/carry. Okie Lite 's defense last year is analogous to a median (elites would skew the avg higher) SEC defense.
OL- struggled last year with 3 JRs who return. At this point, they probably are who they are. Kenyon should improve, the question is whether enough others do likewise. Jimbo cannot count on the OL being good enough to force defenses to bring a safety up regularly. He also cannot count on them being good enough in pass pro to force defenses to blitz regularly.
FB- losing Miles probably hurt more than we realized. We never found an effective lead blocker. Remember we tried plugging Bobby Brown in, but even that was not great. We are not likely to create a mismatch with the FB against most SEC LBs.
WR- Ausbon and Buckley have shown themselves to be complimentary players, but not mismatch-makers. Ainias was the only younger WR to challenge for PT. That is a bad sign for the '18 and '19 classes.
Demas is supposed to be a freak and Muhsin is also supposed to be good, Either could force Jimbo to go back to 3WR. There is always a chance one or more of the players on the roster puts it together.
But, we need a 1,000 yard receiver, or 2 WRs to at least do what Q did. It could happen, but Jimbo cannot count on it. And Jimbo typically asks WRs to make reads and adjustments that most spreads do not. Most WRs need 1-2 years to learn to do this correctly.
I speculate that if Demas or Moose are good enough to create mismatches, maybe Jimbo plays them and asks less on the mental side for this year only. We cannot count on that.
RB
We saw Spiller and Ainias can get it done. Achane is supposed to be even better than Ainias plus Jackson and Hubbard had offers from the good SEC programs.
TE
This is the real X-factor. IF Cupp can block and catch just enough to beat a LB, then we have our mismatch agsinst teams that lack a legit rover. If Cupp is good enough to block a LB and catch against a DB, we could be in the money even against teams with good rovers.
Optimism comes from the fact that Cupp was supposed to stat before he got hurt. Jimbo was able to create all kinds of problems with Jace and Wood. Wood was not much of a receiver and Jace was not much of a blocker. Imagine what he could do with 2 TEs who can catch and at least one who can block!
Caution comes from the fact that Wydermeyer took half a seaon to get going. So Cupp could be better than Wydermeyer in August, but not better than Wydermeyer in November.
Anyways, its not complicated. Jimbo will look to mismatch the LBs and Rovers, unless we find a WR who demands a double team or an OL who can dominate the point of attack. Most LBs will struggle to run with our small backs and most DBs will struggle to tackle our power backs. IF Cupp re-emerges, then he and Wydermeyer can create mismatches.
The pony set alone should take us to 9-3, assuming only reasonable attrition and we find a way to scratch out wins in the 1-2 games where we play down. The Ace set could be what gets us win #10.
Its also possible to be pleasantly surprised by a position. If so, Jimbo will adjust accordingly.
