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When should we expect success?

7,859 Views | 81 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Stone44
beerad12man
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AG
agrab86 said:

beerad12man said:


Winning our first NC in 80+ years would be overpaying? No, I think all the decision makers who influenced the hire would think that alone is worth the 75mm. Not to mention five 10 win seasons in 10 years. Do you know how many 10 win seasons we have in the last 22 years? 1.

Look, we all want to be Saban and go 14-1 every year and be the best dynasty of all time. But you're kidding yourself if you wouldn't take the one national championship and five 10 win seasons in the next 10 years and run. You do realize if we pull this off over the next decade in the sec west, that would likely be the 3rd or 4th best program during this time period, right? Guess where we pay Jimbo? 4th.

And you didn't pay a damn dime.

1 NC for $75 mil - overpaid. Need at least 2 for that money, for which you have no idea whether or not I paid a damn dime or not.

Past 22 years - two 10+ win seasons (nice cherry picking). 1985-94: 6 10+ win seasons. I'm class of 86 and that's what I expect regardless of our conference.

But at the minimum, I expect us to put a team out there that competes for the win each and every game, that it's no shock when we beat a Bama or a Clemson. We may not win them all, but $75 mil for a coach should allow us to compete for the win regardless of opponent.
You do realize that over the next 10 years, many coaches will be paid more than 75mm, right? Many coaches with zero NCs. If we get that NC and keep fisher at 7.5, that will be a bargain and we will be underpaying by then. In reality, if we win an NC in year 5, he will be making more than 7.5mm after that.

I agree with the bolded part, and it's going to happen with my record I posted. I'm not talking about 9-4 with 4 blowout losses. If we did what I said, I was making it under the assumption that we were competitive every year.

I also wasn't cherry picking. It was the post slocum era which is the most relevant time period to our program now. Sorry if I mis counted and said 22 instead of 21. We have 1 10 win season in 21 years. The 2nd was 22 years ago. That only furthers my point as to where we are as a program and how freaking great Fisher would have to do to get us 5 in 10 years.

What happened in 85-94 was a great decade but long in the past. It was also in a far lesser conference, regardless of whether you care about that or not. It's just the reality of the situation. 5 ten win seasons in the sec along with a NC would be a more impressive decade IMHO. And arguably the greatest in our history.

LSU is one of the top 5 programs in the country right now and their last 10 years was less impressive than the one I just listed.
beerad12man
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AG
PrideofSA said:

Success should be expected sooner rather than later. The cupboard wasn't left bare, there was and is talent on the roster, just a different kind of talent. The woes on offense are inexcusable, Sumlin recruited skill positions good enough to make up for a gap in scheme, and we've always had a decent o-line. (Yea ik they suck this year)

The struggles and restructuring on defense are more acceptable, as we never really had that traditional front or backers

If we can't at least clean house with auburn, both mississippi's and LSU by next year or the year after that, then we really should be questioning what the head man is doing
Actually Sumlins OL were pretty bad quite a few years, and his offensive skill talent was dwindling as well.

As for the last line, there are years where bama doesn't clean house with all 4 of those. I think that's ridiculous. So you are basically saying 11-1 next year otherwise questioning what we are doing? There are maybe 3-4 teams in the entire country that would go 4-0 if they played those 4 teams next season.
UnderTheHillAg
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2 is our limit...

If we lose 2 games that's it, we're out. That means that we should at least expect the team to take care of auburn, the mississippi's, and LSU, which leaves us a h2h against bama and a give or take against previously mentioned to get into the SEC title game.

If we can't at least beat the winnable teams then we're never gonna make it
beerad12man
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AG
What do you mean 2 is our limit? Limit of what? Out of what? The NC? Of course. So is every team. So you are basically saying if we don't make it in year 3 of the program we never will? I don't get it?

Saying if we don't beat all 4 of those teams in year 3 then we are never going to make it is simply absurd. That's putting too much pressure on the program and getting way too far ahead of yourself. Put yourself up near the top each and every year. Percentages then favor eventually breaking through.
offenseguru
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AG
In the SEC we won't have sustainable success until we have a dominant Oline.
fightinag
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just.................

NEXT YEAR IS HERE.......again
Jarrin' Jay
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AG
We won't always have a non-con game like Clemson on the sked. That is going to be +1 in the win column usually.

Pig and USC will beat us at some point. However, we should expect to beat Pig, USC, and both Miss. teams 80%+ of the time. So in any given year we should be 4-0 vs. those teams, sometimes 3-1, rarely 2-2. We should expect to be 50/50 with Auburn, and under 50/50 but building toward 50/50 vs. LSU and Bama.

That is the problem right now with any bi+ching about Jimbo, it's ridiculous, he walked into a 7-5 program that had never beaten and rarely been competitive vs. LSU after 2013, only beaten Bama once, had not beaten both MS schools in the same season in 4 years, etc. Jimbo took over a program at the level of State and Ole Miss, not Auburn.

It is short sighted or nave to think A&M should be >> Auburn, who has a better history of competing and winning overall, nationally and in the SEC. But we should be and can be = Auburn.

Not really going to address the other SEC east teams as those are one-off games but obviously only UGA and FL are elite, the others we should beat (and have to date).

4-0 in non-conference, 4-0 vs. Pig/State/USC, 1-2 vs. Bama/Auburn/LSU, that is going to be a very good season for us most years, and if we had not played Clemson last year that is what would have happened.

A 9 win season is a very good season no matter how you look at it. To get to 10+ wins we are talking about winning 2+ vs. Bama, Auburn and LSU. That is a great season, and if we are that good then it's really just the bounce of the ball, a fluke play, a bad decision or two or mistake from a player keeping us from 11-1 or 12-0.

In the long run we are going to be a 9-3 to 7-5 program in the SEC, which is what Auburn is, we just need to get to the point our good teams, our best teams, can compete for the SEC title, beat Bama and LSU etc., just like Auburn.

I expect us to be well on that track in 2020 and fully there in 2021 and to continue for 5+ years or as long as Jimbo is the HC....

Agsuffering@bulaw
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Quote:

In the long run we are going to be a 9-3 to 7-5 program in the SEC, which is what Auburn is, we just need to get to the point our good teams, our best teams, can compete for the SEC title, beat Bama and LSU etc., just like Auburn.

Agreed with most of what you said, but I dont accept that as where we should be. I say we should be 10-3 twice in a 4-yr cycle. Maybe every 4th year we dip below that. One of those 4 years, we should have a great season. We have better facilities, more money to pay coaches, and a better recruiting situation than most in the conference.

I realize that it will probably be 21 or 22.
beerad12man
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AG
I'm sorry, but there is no reason to concede that. That would be disappointing and there is no reason this program can't have the 9-3 on the low end instead of 7-5.
Jarrin' Jay
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AG
You don't have to like it or accept it. You also don't have to accept that water is wet or the sun will come up tomorrow.....

The key / goal is to be able to compete and win at a high level every so often.

Do you know the last time Auburn won in Baton Rouge? Most current aTm students were not alive when it happened, and there have been some average LSU teams over the past 20 years.

If we were in the little 12 or ACC we could get to 9-3 being the floor, but we play in a conference where no less than SIX programs have the same or better resources, fan base, revenue, history, goals, etc. to be a perennial Top 5-10 program, and that means when they play each other one must lose.

There is no reason that Michigan State is not = to Michigan in ability to win and maintain the same level of success and winning, but they don't, though they have been good and had some great teams. Is A&M more like Michigan or Michigan State?

Not saying we are baylor or Texas Tech, those are the MS schools and Pig, we need to be and can be, will be and should be a rung above that, but we are not Bama, never have been, maybe we could be eventually but the reality is that right now we are not and it will take a while to get there.

I do strongly believe we will get to where 8-4 is a bad season for us and 9-3 is average, but then 10-2 will happen about as often as 7-5. The move to the SEC was a huge positive in all respects and we are still growing into it.
DSAG
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txaggieacct85 said:

and by success I mean consistently challenging for the SEC west title.

2020?
2021?
2022?

beyond.
If it's not happening by 2021, Jimbo is not the answer.
I think we are recruiting well albeit a shade below Bama/LSU/Georgia , however, we need to develop at a high level to compete for SEC Titles.
Baker
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Texas is perfect to recruit guys for the spread offense. Bama and LSU have already moved to the spread with great success, so don't say it does not work in the SEC....we are going to have to go full Spread to compete!
Stone44
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AG
beerad12man said:

gopitt said:

With the Ags it's ALWAYS next year. If a certain player is the QB it will be ANOTHER mediocre season. Top rate facilities, great recruiting in recent years, a high priced coach and yet the Ags can't get traction in the SEC. 80 years without a national championship with all these assets should tell you something. Baylor and SMU have surpassed A&M. That's pretty sickening.
But, hey, isn't the SEC great! According to most Aggies it is. I know bama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia and others love having the Ags to add to their victory total. Reality and losing sucks.
You're a moron.
More of an a$$ hole . Jimbo is building a program just like Jackie did. It takes time....enjoy the ride cause it's coming.
 
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