iluvpoker said:

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WC94 said:

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Wouldn't setting the line in the middle guarantee a 10% return (juice) in 3.5 hours? I think Vegas wants that instead of wild up and down fluctuations.

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Even if you were right, and you're not, it would be a 5% return, not 10%. As the book doesn't collect juice on winning bets.

There are over 60 sports books in Vegas and they don't all have the same lines. There are lots of 1/2 and 1 point differences. There are lots of factors that go into a line, way more time to explain than I want to waste here. Spreads have to fit into the total for the game, the first half and first quarter lines, the money line, teasers, pleasers and parlays.

There are lots of factors which makes it impossible to put out a number that gets 50/50 action every time. They put out a number that that particular book can live with the risk. And their computer tracks every bet they take so they know the risk of each and every game, half, quarter, team total, first to score, every prop bet.

So if a guy has a parlay for $10,000 with 6 plays in it that could pay out $400,000 and the first 5 have hit, the book has to have their risk covered.

So books adjust their lines all the time. And different books have different lines and charge different juice for those lines.

I'm not going to spend a day teaching y'all about sports book because I doubt any of you are going to own or run one. But if you use a sports book, even a local bookie, I encourage you to use 2 or 3 or more. This way you can shop for the best line because even 1/2 point or -105 instead of -110 will make a difference in your bankroll at the end of the season.

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This was such a reasonable post until the parlay sheet

Dabo's a doooosh

I hope we take him down like we should have last year.

The Lost said:

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iluvpoker said:

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WC94 said:

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Wouldn't setting the line in the middle guarantee a 10% return (juice) in 3.5 hours? I think Vegas wants that instead of wild up and down fluctuations.

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Even if you were right, and you're not, it would be a 5% return, not 10%. As the book doesn't collect juice on winning bets.

There are over 60 sports books in Vegas and they don't all have the same lines. There are lots of 1/2 and 1 point differences. There are lots of factors that go into a line, way more time to explain than I want to waste here. Spreads have to fit into the total for the game, the first half and first quarter lines, the money line, teasers, pleasers and parlays.

There are lots of factors which makes it impossible to put out a number that gets 50/50 action every time. They put out a number that that particular book can live with the risk. And their computer tracks every bet they take so they know the risk of each and every game, half, quarter, team total, first to score, every prop bet.

So if a guy has a parlay for $10,000 with 6 plays in it that could pay out $400,000 and the first 5 have hit, the book has to have their risk covered.

So books adjust their lines all the time. And different books have different lines and charge different juice for those lines.

I'm not going to spend a day teaching y'all about sports book because I doubt any of you are going to own or run one. But if you use a sports book, even a local bookie, I encourage you to use 2 or 3 or more. This way you can shop for the best line because even 1/2 point or -105 instead of -110 will make a difference in your bankroll at the end of the season.

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This was such a reasonable post until the parlay sheet

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The parlay was an example. Here is an actual parlay that hit yesterday.

An eight-team baseball parlay hit Monday at @CGTechnology_ sportsbooks, per Tony DiTommaso. $250 bet to win $38K. The winning lineup:

Cardinals
Reds
Rockies Under 13
Pirates Over 9
Phillies
D-backs
A's
A's Over 9.5

@Covers


Yes it's baseball but this happens in football and will happen this weekend. The book can't just take $250 on the opposite side of each of those 8 plays (5 sides and 3 totals) to cover themselves.

The point is the book tries to not get too far out of balance, but there is no way to set a line that gets "equal money on both sides so they collect guaranteed juice". There are way too many different bets (sides, money lines, totals, first half S, quarters, props, parlays, teasers, pleasers, etc) that affect each other!

Vegas has no way to know the exact score at the end of the 1st qtr, 1st half and final score of 50 different college football games this week. So they set lines that have the best chance of making them the most money. Which means they move the lines against the public because they know how the public bets and what the odds are for the score of each game.

Sometimes they get burned and lose their asses one week. But overall the public sucks at picking winners and Vegas makes out like bandits.

NoahAg said:

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Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.

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we throwin up 17 in the 1st quarter bruh

iluvpoker said:

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aggiejim70 said:

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Gil Renard said:

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Ags will beat swt by at least 40

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If only I knew you hade the inside information and that was an iron lock. Bovada has the line at A&M -34.5. That is, bet 110 to make 100. However, on the prop bets you can get A&M -36.5 at plus 125, that is bet 100 to make 125. Very tempting,

p.s. I wouldn't bet any money you really need on our friends in Austin covering -21 against La Tech. Yesterday I spoke with one of my LSU friends who is a real gambler. He wants to go to the sip/LSU game in Austin, but thinks that after the La Tech game the price for the LSU tickets will take a nose dive.

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Thank the Lord I didn't take my own advice and parlay those two. Woulda lost my hiney.

Jbob04 said:

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Out of the big four teams we play this year, I think Clemson will be the toughest. I know we played them close last year, but their QB is on a different level. I just don't see our secondary being able to keep up.

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13 of 23 for 168 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs is far from a different level.

If an Aggie QB had those stats, we would already be begging for the next true freshman to step in.

Didn't Clemson beat the defending national champions by 4 touchdowns? I think -17.5 seems fair.