Age are minus 34.5 vs texas state and plus 17.5 vs clemson. I like us on both games.
I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.NoahAg said:
Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
That is necessarily true any longer. Gambling is made up of sharps and squares. Sharps move the real $$$ and most of them have intricate computer programs calculating what they think should be the final point spread for the game. Vegas aims to split their $$$ 50/50 on the game and need as accurate of a point spread as possible to do so. If they make a line just obviously slanted towards publicly popular teams then they will get killed by the real gamblers. If you gamble enough you walk away frightened at how good Vegas is at setting the lines. That said upsets do happen. I think we were getting 11-13 or so last year when we played them at home and if it wasn't for a fumble here and a missed fg there then we could ahve won.kbarj said:I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.NoahAg said:
Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
Johnny2Fan said:
I literally just saw that one of your DL went down. But I can't remember where I saw it. Hmmmm.
ClemsonTig said:
As for Clemson, I don't think we have any DL who are injured or unable to go.
We do have one of our WRs from last year, Amari Rogers, out. He tore an ACL in the spring. We have some holes but WR isn't one of them. We're pretty stacked there. We return 4 of 5 starting OL, QB Lawrence, RB ETN, 2 WRs in Ross and Higgins and another 4-year player in Overton. Offensively, Clemson should be dynamite. Lawrence is the best QB I've ever seen at Clemson - and that includes Watson.
Defensively, we will be a work in progress. We have talent but a lot of inexperience in starting roles. The strength of our defense will be the secondary.
Can't wait to welcome the Aggies to Clemson.
They don't know as much as you think two weeks before they've seen anyone play and three weeks before kickoff.NoahAg said:
Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
Football seams to have it's advantages and disadvantages for bookies. On one hand there are consistent scores because of the system of points being awarded as 2, 3, or 7 with likely probabilities for each. On the other hand one play can be the difference between 0 and 7 points. Two evenly matched teams can both play at the same level but chance can separate the scores by a lot. Three mistakes in basketball could make just a 9 point difference at most. But three mistakes in football could be 21 points. Over hundreds of games through the season they all will average out but I still think it's difficult to nail individual games.mjhhawk said:That is necessarily true any longer. Gambling is made up of sharps and squares. Sharps move the real $$$ and most of them have intricate computer programs calculating what they think should be the final point spread for the game. Vegas aims to split their $$$ 50/50 on the game and need as accurate of a point spread as possible to do so. If they make a line just obviously slanted towards publicly popular teams then they will get killed by the real gamblers. If you gamble enough you walk away frightened at how good Vegas is at setting the lines. That said upsets do happen. I think we were getting 11-13 or so last year when we played them at home and if it wasn't for a fumble here and a missed fg there then we could ahve won.kbarj said:I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.NoahAg said:
Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
CraigSU84 said:
The betting lines are set for the house to profit the most. The are not set to get equal money on both sides.
Jbob04 said:
Out of the big four teams we play this year, I think Clemson will be the toughest. I know we played them close last year, but their QB is on a different level. I just don't see our secondary being able to keep up.
CraigSU84 said:
The betting lines are set for the house to profit the most. The are not set to get equal money on both sides.
If only I knew you hade the inside information and that was an iron lock. Bovada has the line at A&M -34.5. That is, bet 110 to make 100. However, on the prop bets you can get A&M -36.5 at plus 125, that is bet 100 to make 125. Very tempting,Gil Renard said:
Ags will beat swt by at least 40
this is exactly correct - they are NOT telling you the games outcome, simply trying to get equal dollars to fall both wayskbarj said:I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.NoahAg said:
Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
WC94 said:
Wouldn't setting the line in the middle guarantee a 10% return (juice) in 3.5 hours? I think Vegas wants that instead of wild up and down fluctuations.
Gotta agree. I think we get hammered.Jbob04 said:
Out of the big four teams we play this year, I think Clemson will be the toughest. I know we played them close last year, but their QB is on a different level. I just don't see our secondary being able to keep up.
CovertChad said:
Keep your eye on Clemson line. It WILL move late.