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Early Vegas lines

12,768 Views | 43 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by WC94
58bill
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Age are minus 34.5 vs texas state and plus 17.5 vs clemson. I like us on both games.
FriscoKid
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AG
+17.5 is way too much. We aren't getting blown out.
mjhhawk
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The Clemson line started early in the summer around 21 and has been coming down until it's stuck on 17.5.
Jbob04
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AG
Out of the big four teams we play this year, I think Clemson will be the toughest. I know we played them close last year, but their QB is on a different level. I just don't see our secondary being able to keep up.
tangelox
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I'd take Texas state and the points and you guys and the points.
NoahAg
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Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
The Lost
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wouldn't touch tx spread, maybe o/u. way too many coaching decisions can swing that late in the game and jimbo isn't known to consistenly put up 70 just because like sumlin.

Clemson will be interesting. Wouldn't be early, but lean clemson without seeing them. After seeing both teams will be easier, but they're definitely better than they were week 2 last year.
LakeSurfinAg08
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AG
If you use the Clemson game last year as a gauge you would figure Clemson to be a 1-2 TD favorite for the game being at Clemson this year.

Then you have to add in the Trevor Lawrence factor and the fact that they are riding high after beating up on Alabama in the NC so 17.5 seems logical if you look at it without your Maroon colored glasses.

But Maroon colored glasses back on, they lost a lot of pieces on defense last year. What will be interesting is our run game against their new d-line and their pass game against our secondary. Our best defense will be keeping Lawrence off the field so if we can sustain long drives and capitalize we have a chance to keep it close again.

Johnny2Fan
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Didn't they just lose a starting DL last week, a starting WR still out till October or later as well ???
kbarj
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AG
NoahAg said:

Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.
mjhhawk
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kbarj said:

NoahAg said:

Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.
That is necessarily true any longer. Gambling is made up of sharps and squares. Sharps move the real $$$ and most of them have intricate computer programs calculating what they think should be the final point spread for the game. Vegas aims to split their $$$ 50/50 on the game and need as accurate of a point spread as possible to do so. If they make a line just obviously slanted towards publicly popular teams then they will get killed by the real gamblers. If you gamble enough you walk away frightened at how good Vegas is at setting the lines. That said upsets do happen. I think we were getting 11-13 or so last year when we played them at home and if it wasn't for a fumble here and a missed fg there then we could ahve won.
Cancelled
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AG
We gone beat Clemson. Mark it down birches.
MondayMorningQB
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AG
Shut up and take my money
ClemsonTig
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As for Clemson, I don't think we have any DL who are injured or unable to go.

We do have one of our WRs from last year, Amari Rogers, out. He tore an ACL in the spring. We have some holes but WR isn't one of them. We're pretty stacked there. We return 4 of 5 starting OL, QB Lawrence, RB ETN, 2 WRs in Ross and Higgins and another 4-year player in Overton. Offensively, Clemson should be dynamite. Lawrence is the best QB I've ever seen at Clemson - and that includes Watson.

Defensively, we will be a work in progress. We have talent but a lot of inexperience in starting roles. The strength of our defense will be the secondary.

Can't wait to welcome the Aggies to Clemson.
Craigy
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The betting lines are set for the house to profit the most. The are not set to get equal money on both sides.
Johnny2Fan
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I literally just saw that one of your DL went down. But I can't remember where I saw it. Hmmmm.
Mostly Sunny Disposition
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AG
Johnny2Fan said:

I literally just saw that one of your DL went down. But I can't remember where I saw it. Hmmmm.


Nyles Pinckney had heat exhaustion yesterday, nothing serious to bones or ligaments.
merch
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Put whatever glasses you want on, we out chanced Clemson 2 to 1 last year...no matter what football league you are playing in that means a win probably 80+% of the time at a minimum.
austinag1997
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AG
ClemsonTig said:

As for Clemson, I don't think we have any DL who are injured or unable to go.

We do have one of our WRs from last year, Amari Rogers, out. He tore an ACL in the spring. We have some holes but WR isn't one of them. We're pretty stacked there. We return 4 of 5 starting OL, QB Lawrence, RB ETN, 2 WRs in Ross and Higgins and another 4-year player in Overton. Offensively, Clemson should be dynamite. Lawrence is the best QB I've ever seen at Clemson - and that includes Watson.

Defensively, we will be a work in progress. We have talent but a lot of inexperience in starting roles. The strength of our defense will be the secondary.

Can't wait to welcome the Aggies to Clemson.


Thanks, ClemsonTig. Lawrence and ETN are a load to handle.
OldShadeOfBlue
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AG
We were +21 like three months ago so I guess that's a good sign
OldShadeOfBlue
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AG
NoahAg said:

Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
They don't know as much as you think two weeks before they've seen anyone play and three weeks before kickoff.
OldShadeOfBlue
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AG
mjhhawk said:

kbarj said:

NoahAg said:

Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.
That is necessarily true any longer. Gambling is made up of sharps and squares. Sharps move the real $$$ and most of them have intricate computer programs calculating what they think should be the final point spread for the game. Vegas aims to split their $$$ 50/50 on the game and need as accurate of a point spread as possible to do so. If they make a line just obviously slanted towards publicly popular teams then they will get killed by the real gamblers. If you gamble enough you walk away frightened at how good Vegas is at setting the lines. That said upsets do happen. I think we were getting 11-13 or so last year when we played them at home and if it wasn't for a fumble here and a missed fg there then we could ahve won.
Football seams to have it's advantages and disadvantages for bookies. On one hand there are consistent scores because of the system of points being awarded as 2, 3, or 7 with likely probabilities for each. On the other hand one play can be the difference between 0 and 7 points. Two evenly matched teams can both play at the same level but chance can separate the scores by a lot. Three mistakes in basketball could make just a 9 point difference at most. But three mistakes in football could be 21 points. Over hundreds of games through the season they all will average out but I still think it's difficult to nail individual games.
abacavir
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CraigSU84 said:

The betting lines are set for the house to profit the most. The are not set to get equal money on both sides.


Yep but most dummies on here don't get that
Gil Renard
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AG
Ags will beat swt by at least 40
WC94
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AG
Wouldn't setting the line in the middle guarantee a 10% return (juice) in 3.5 hours? I think Vegas wants that instead of wild up and down fluctuations.
HUDAT361
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Jbob04 said:

Out of the big four teams we play this year, I think Clemson will be the toughest. I know we played them close last year, but their QB is on a different level. I just don't see our secondary being able to keep up.


That's why our Blitz package will.
wheelz
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AG
CraigSU84 said:

The betting lines are set for the house to profit the most. The are not set to get equal money on both sides.

That's literally what they try to do on every game.
aggiejim70
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AG
Gil Renard said:

Ags will beat swt by at least 40
If only I knew you hade the inside information and that was an iron lock. Bovada has the line at A&M -34.5. That is, bet 110 to make 100. However, on the prop bets you can get A&M -36.5 at plus 125, that is bet 100 to make 125. Very tempting,

p.s. I wouldn't bet any money you really need on our friends in Austin covering -21 against La Tech. Yesterday I spoke with one of my LSU friends who is a real gambler. He wants to go to the sip/LSU game in Austin, but thinks that after the La Tech game the price for the LSU tickets will take a nose dive.
The person that is not willing to fight and die, if need be, for his country has no right to life.

James Earl Rudder '32
January 31, 1945
rosstradamas70
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AG
kbarj said:

NoahAg said:

Re +17.5. Vegas knows stuff. It's very easy to imagine a 17-35 loss to Clemson.
I always thought the line was based on what the bookies felt would get an equal amount of money bet on both sides...not about the actual outcome of the game. If true, what they know is how the bettors feel.
this is exactly correct - they are NOT telling you the games outcome, simply trying to get equal dollars to fall both ways
if they succeed in getting equal dollars though, they are generally close to the result simply because you have hundreds of thousands of persons giving input in the form of dollars, and a significant number of those know - or think they know - enough to make informed wagers
ross skillman 70
iluvpoker
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WC94 said:

Wouldn't setting the line in the middle guarantee a 10% return (juice) in 3.5 hours? I think Vegas wants that instead of wild up and down fluctuations.


Even if you were right, and you're not, it would be a 5% return, not 10%. As the book doesn't collect juice on winning bets.

There are over 60 sports books in Vegas and they don't all have the same lines. There are lots of 1/2 and 1 point differences. There are lots of factors that go into a line, way more time to explain than I want to waste here. Spreads have to fit into the total for the game, the first half and first quarter lines, the money line, teasers, pleasers and parlays.

There are lots of factors which makes it impossible to put out a number that gets 50/50 action every time. They put out a number that that particular book can live with the risk. And their computer tracks every bet they take so they know the risk of each and every game, half, quarter, team total, first to score, every prop bet.

So if a guy has a parlay for $10,000 with 6 plays in it that could pay out $400,000 and the first 5 have hit, the book has to have their risk covered.

So books adjust their lines all the time. And different books have different lines and charge different juice for those lines.

I'm not going to spend a day teaching y'all about sports book because I doubt any of you are going to own or run one. But if you use a sports book, even a local bookie, I encourage you to use 2 or 3 or more. This way you can shop for the best line because even 1/2 point or -105 instead of -110 will make a difference in your bankroll at the end of the season.
wangus12
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AG
Jbob04 said:

Out of the big four teams we play this year, I think Clemson will be the toughest. I know we played them close last year, but their QB is on a different level. I just don't see our secondary being able to keep up.
Gotta agree. I think we get hammered.
agnatgas
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AG
Where can one find these early lines going out for weeks at a time?
CovertChad
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Keep your eye on Clemson line. It WILL move late.
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BMX Bandit
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CovertChad said:

Keep your eye on Clemson line. It WILL move late.


Then you should bet now.
4133
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Exactly. That comment reminds me of when someone told me around 1999 to keep my eye on Amazon.com's stock price. I've been watching that sucker move for years!
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