Dan Mullen is an interesting name but for all the success he has had there I think he has quite a few red flags and is nowhere close to being a sure thing.
Yes he has a ton of wins at MSU but... it's arguable that much of Mullen's success is built on smoke and mirrors.
Miss State has essentially gone the old school Kansas State way of scheduling for much of his career. Miss State has played a P5 OOC game in just 2 of 9 seasons that Mullen has been there. If you want to count BYU that goes up to 4/9.
They also get Kentucky as their permanent cross conference rival. He's gone 7-1 vs UK w/last year being his first loss. That's essentially 5 games a year they should always be favored in.
vs OOC opponents 29-5 (0-2 vs P5) 2009 - 2-2
W - Jackson St 3-8, @Middle Tenn St 10-3
L - Georgia Tech 11-3, Houston 10-4 (coached by Sumlin)
2010 - 4-0
W - Memphis 1-11, Alcorn St 5-6, @Houston 5-7 (coached by Sumlin), UAB 4-8
2011 - 4-0
W - @Memphis 2-10, La Tech 8-5, @UAB 3-9, Tenn-Martin 5-6
2012 - 4-0
W - Jackson St 7-5, @Troy 5-7, South Alabama 2-11, Middle Tenn St 8-4
2013 - 3-1
W - Alcorn St 9-3, Troy 6-6, Bowling Green 10-4
L - Oklahoma St 10-3 in Houston
2014 - 4-0
W - Southern Miss 3-9, UAB 6-6, @South Alabama 6-7, Tenn-Martin 6-6
2015 - 4-0
W - @Southern Miss 9-5, Northwestern State 4-7, Troy 4-8, La Tech 9-4
2016 - 2-2
W - @UMass 2-10, Samford 7-5
L - South Alabama 6-7, @BYU 9-4
2017 - 2-0
W - Charleston Southern 0-2, @La Tech 2-1
remaining - BYU 1-3, UMass 0-3
Against SEC he has done nearly of his damage vs average to terrible teams. He does not have a single win vs an SEC team that won 10+ games. He has just one win vs a 9 win school and that was vs rival Ole Miss.
Mullen vs SEC opponents 30-35
vs SEC East 14-57-1 vs Kentucky
W - 2009 - 2015 / 7-6, 6-7, 5-7, 2-10, 2-10, 5-7, 5-7
L - 2016 / 7-6
2-0 vs Vanderbilt
W - 2009 / 2-10, 2014 / 3-9
1-0 vs Tennessee
W - 2012 / 5-7
1-0 vs Missouri
W - 2015 / 5-7 (Pinkel's final season)
1-1 vs Georgia
W - 2010 / 6-7,
L - 2011 / 10-4
1-1 vs Florida
W - 2010 / 8-5 (Urban's final season)
L - 2009 / 13-1
1-2 vs South Carolina
W - 2016 / 6-7
L - 2011 / 11-2, 2013 / 11-2
vs SEC West 16-305-3 vs Ole Miss
W - 2009 / 9-4, 2010 / 4-8, 2011 / 2-10, 2013 / 8-5, 2016 / 5-7
L - 2012 / 7-6, 2014 / 9-4, 2015 / 10-3
4-4 vs Arkansas
W - 2012 / 4-8, 2013 / 3-9, 2014 / 7-6, 2015 / 8-5
L - 2009 / 8-5, 2010 / 9-4, 2011 / 11-2, 2016 / 7-6
3-5 vs Auburn
W - 2012 / 3-9, 2014 / 8-5, 2015 / 7-6, 2016 / 8-5
L - 2009 / 8-5, 2010 / 14-0, 2011 / 8-5, 2013 / 12-2,
2-3 vs TAMU
W - 2014 / 8-5, 2016 / 8-5
L - 2012 / 11-2, 2013 / 9-4, 2015 / 8-5
2-7 vs LSU
W - 2014 / 8-5, 2017 / 2-1 (as of week 3, first game w/Coach O)
L - 2009 - 2013 / 9-4, 11-2, 13-1, 10-3, 10-3, 2015 / 9-3, 2016 / 8-4
0-8 vs Alabama
W - none
L - 2009 - 2016 / 14-0, 10-3, 12-1, 13-1, 11-2, 12-2, 14-1, 14-1
Even his bowl record is somewhat artificially inflated.
2010 - W - 52-14 - Gator vs 7-6 Michigan (Rich Rod fired after game)
2011 - W - 23-17 - Music City vs 6-7 Wake Forest
2012 - L - 20-34 - Gator vs 10-3 Northwestern (UN's first bowl win since 1949 Rose Bowl)
2013 - W - 44-07 - Liberty vs 10-4 Rice (Rice had 3 wins vs teams w/winning record Marshall, UTSA, Tulane)
2014 - L - 34-49 - Orange vs #8 11-3 Georgia Tech
2015 - W - 52-28 - Belk vs 7-6 NC State (Wolfpack's only win vs school w/winning record was vs 6-5 FCS Eastern Kentucky
2016 - W - 17-16 - St. Petersburg vs 6-7 Miami of Ohio
So... what has he
really done? How impressive has he actually been? Sure Miss State doesn't have the greatest history but it's not like he doing much more than beating bad teams and occasionally taking a game from the middle tier. What would his best win be? 2009 vs 9-4 Ole Miss? 2010 vs Urban Meyer and his heart palpitations?
Honestly, what has he done that is so special we should think nothing of having to toss a minimum of $6 million per year to pry him from Miss St?