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Recruiting is Important But is Overrated

4,679 Views | 62 Replies | Last: 11 yr ago by Syd_X_Barrett
OIL&GASAG65
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AG
I want to point out to everyone here that Recruiting players is certainly important to having a top football program, but it is also WAY OVERRATED. It's way overhyped by the press. COACHING and PLAYER DEVELOPMENT are WAY UNDERRATED. I use TCU as my perfect example. You don't see them anywhere listed by the press as having a top recruiting class today, yet they have had consistently good football program for the past several years. I am very confident that my point will be proved out at A&M when we watch what our new defensive coordinator is able to do.
rockylarues
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I think that coaching (including player development) and recruiting are two things that can not be overrated. I think the ranking systems are completely overrated, and to a degree are somewhat arbitrary.
99 Luftballoons Ag
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AG
It's obviously overrated. We've been recruiting top 25 talent year-in year-out, and have totally SUCKED ASS on the field.
Bone6
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Height in basketball is way overrated. It's important but not that important. I use Mugsy Bogues as an example. He was 5'5" and had a respectable basketball career. Clearly height isn't that important...
AlexNguyen
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I don't know that I agree. Recruiting is at least 60% of the equation. Some people like to say Mack Brown is a poor coach but he's a great recruiter. He's been good for at least 9 wins a season since arriving at Texas.

Which is it?
Ulrich
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Recruiting is extremely important. What a lot of people lose track of is that talent evaluation is a huge part of recruiting; rivals stars are not definitive, though they are a great indicator of general trends.

Step one is figuring out who to take, and it's not as obvious as rivals makes it seem. Deciding which high school studs will be college busts, which ones will never make it on stupidity (grades or legal trouble), who fits your system, and who will blossom under a big-time S&C program is where it all starts.
Bajan
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AG
i dont know if you can say scheme is some percentage and recruiting is some other percentage to get you to a grand total of 100%.

Great scheme can make up for crappy recruiting and vice versa.


but the teams that win championships usually manage to get both although i will admit, it seems like they are somewhat skewed recently towards amazing recruiting classes.

imagine if boise state had all 4 star recruits, would anyone beat them?

[This message has been edited by Bajan (edited 2/3/2010 1:42p).]
rockylarues
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quote:
It's obviously overrated. We've been recruiting top 25 talent year-in year-out, and have totally SUCKED ASS on the field.


This is a perfect example of the rankings being what's wrong, not the actual recruitment of the best players. Sometimes the best players are not the guys with the most stars, but the ones who can make the most impact in your system.
Citizen Reign
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recruiting is everything OP.
toucan82
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how does tcu recruit in comparison to the other teams in their conference?
gazelle01
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I love when people point out the one or two exceptions to a general rule and then claim those exceptions disprove the rule.
rockylarues
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quote:
I love when people point out the one or two exceptions to a general rule and then claim those exceptions disprove the rule


Feel free to define the rule and give proof as to what makes it "the rule"

Bajan
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AG
houston? tech (with leach)? how has nebraska's recruiting classes been recently?

utah?

then on the flip: notre dame?

obviously its some combo of both coaching and recruiting and i stick to my statements made earlier in this thread.
Ulrich
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basically, you take your quality of recruits from 1-100, your schemes from 1-100, youth converted to a 100-point scale based on letters earned, and [(decibels of noise on a crucial third down - however many boosters are overly involved) divided by thousands of seats in the stadium].

Now find the average and standard deviation of those four numbers. Higher average and lower standard deviation are good.

If you have orange water coolers, none of this matters, you are going to lose anyway.
Bajan
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AG
hah, you should come up with a real formula like that and make a website, you could be the kenpom of football
OIL&GASAG65
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AG
Thanks BAJAN for giving other examples out there besides TCU and pointing out that TCU is not the "one or two" exceptions to the "so called rule" that the teams recruit the best always have the best teams.

You are correct BAJAN that you don't see Nebraska, Utah, Houston, and Texas Tech at the top of the recruiting rankings today. But yet they have outperformed many teams over recent years you have had higher ranked recruiting classes. And I'll add Boise St to the list as well. You don't see them near the top of the recruiting rankings today either.
MallalieuAg
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Goldie Wilson
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good recruiting is necessary for consistent on the field success, but is not sufficient.

done.
SB in H-Town
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It's everything. There are exceptions but it's strange how Florida, Texas, Alabama are in the top 5 in recruiting every year and also in the top 5 in the polls.
OIL&GASAG65
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AG
I agree with Alex Nguyen that Mack Brown is a great recruiter, and I would also say that he is very average when it comes to actual coaching ability.

The big reason that I think Texas wins the way that the have during the Mack Brown era is due to the high quaility assistant coaches that he has hired who have done an excellent job of devloping the players that he has recruited.
GI
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2009 First Team All-Americans: (star rankings from another site)

Colt McCoy: 3 star
Mark Ingram: 4 star
Toby Gerhart: 3 star
C.J. Spiller: 5 star
Jordan Shipley: 4 star
Golden Tate: 4 star
Aaron Hernandez: 4 star
Chris Marinelli: 3 star
Russel Okung: 3 star
Mike Iupati: 2 star
Mike Johnson: 4 star
Maurkice Pouncey: 4 star
Brandon Graham: 5 star
Gerald McCoy: 5 star
Ndamukong Suh: 4 star
Jerry Hughes: 2 star
Pat Angerer: 3 star
Greg Jones: 3 star
Rolando McClain: 4 star
Joe Haden: 4 star
Alterraun Verner: 3 star
Earl Thomas: 4 star
Eric Berry: 5 star
Kai Forbath: 3 star
Drew Butler: 2 star
Javier Arenas: 3 star
Syd_X_Barrett
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quote:
You are correct BAJAN that you don't see Nebraska, Utah, Houston, and Texas Tech at the top of the recruiting rankings today. But yet they have outperformed many teams over recent years you have had higher ranked recruiting classes. And I'll add Boise St to the list as well. You don't see them near the top of the recruiting rankings today either.



Uh, Nebraska had top 10, top 15 & top 20 classes in 05, 06 & 07. Hmm, I wonder how those corresponded to the 09 season?

Utah & many schools out west are bad examples too since that's the least "covered" area by the recruiting services. Utah gets a lot of Pac-Islander players who are almost always underrated & half their team is from SoCal which is the #1 talent-rich area in the country. All you have to do is look at NFL rosters to know how talented Utah's teams have been recently. They have more talent on average than 2/3's of the Big 12.
Syd_X_Barrett
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Yeah, that 1st Team AA list has over half being 4 or 5 star recruits & over recent years the 1st round of the NFL draft is very similar. (about 60% of the guys were blue chips). Considering about 10% of recruits are in that 4 & 5 star area, that's pretty telling.
Goldie Wilson
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quote:
2009 First Team All-Americans: (star rankings from another site)
now let's see the % of all 5 star, 4 star, 3 star, and 2 star prospects that made that list.

Sure you can say that the same number of 5-star and 2-star recruits made the list. But there's what - about 25 5-star recruits ever year? Compared to how many 2 star? 100s?

So 3/25 5-stars made it
while 3/~300? 400? made it

awesome. i'll take my chances with the 5-stars

[This message has been edited by Dan 07 (edited 2/3/2010 5:08p).]
bigtruckguy3500
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While you can recruit players that are at levels you could never develop in other players, I believe coaching and player development is far more important.

Also, a player's heart is important. I'd rather take an average player that is willing to lay it all down for the maroon & white than a player that's just here because A&M looked the most appealing during the recruitment process. Example - Drew Brees wanting to play for A&M. Someone wants to play for us that bad, as long as they look decent I'd take 'em.
3rdGen2015
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The only thing recruiting is good for is the talent coming into college, it does not predict how they will develop. Whoever posted this years AA team with the star ratings on it, props to you for showing this (sorry, I didn't look at the user)


Now hopefully Sherm can coach them up and make them great collegiate players
AGinHI
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AG
dude please...that's like saying boobs are important, but are overrated.

Try as you may to convince yourself you're happy with what you got, deep down you know you secretly want a better pair - not just for the aesthetic value, but performance as well.
yakman
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You might want to look at who are considered the top coaches this decade and look what they averaged for recruiting classes rankings. Hint- you'll find Meyer, Saban, Carroll, Stoops, and Brown on both lists.
hammer11
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about 50% of the prospects dont pan out and many lower ranked players surprise you. We will be fine in time and we need to keep making progress.
GI
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Ok, let's see the 2nd and 3rd teamers:

2nd team

Case Keenum: 2-star

LaMichael James: 4-star

Dion Lewis: 3-star

Danario Alexander: 2-star

Mardy Gilyard: NOT IN DATABASE (1-star)

Dennis Pitta: NOT IN DATABASE (1-star)

Bryan Bulaga: 4-star

Jason Pinkston: 3-star

Jeff Byers: 5-star

Rodney Hudson: 3-star

J.D. Walton: 2-star

Ryan Kerrigan: 3-star

Jared Odrick: 4-star

Brian Price: 4-star

Derrick Morgan: 4-star

Navorro Bowman: 4-star

Rennie Curran: 4-star

Eric Norwood: 3-star

Amari Spievey: 2-star

Kyle Wilson: 2-star

Rahim Moore: 4-star

Leigh Tiffin: NOT IN DATABASE (1-star)

Zoltan Mesko: 3-star

Jeremy Kerley: 4-star

3rd Team

Jimmy Clausen: 5-star

Ryan Mathews: 3-star

Jacquizz Rogers: 3-star

Jonathan Baldwin: 5-star

Freddie Barnes: 2-star

Demaryus Thomas: 3-star

Jeff Linkenbach: 2-star

Marshall Newhouse: 2-star

Brandon Carter: 3-star

Cord Howard: NOT IN DATABASE (1-star)

Jake Kirkpatrich: NOT IN DATABASE (1-star)

Von Miller: 4-star

Terrence Cody: 3-star

Dan Williams: 3-star

Greg Romeus: 2-star

Daryl Washington: 1-star (no ranking)

Brandon Spikes: 5-star

Sean Weatherspoon: 2-star

Perrish Cox: 4-star

Taylor Mays: 5-star

Deandre McDaniel: 4-star

Blair Walsh: 3-star

Matt Dodge: NOT IN DATABASE (1-star)

Brandon Banks: 3-star

Greg Reid: 5-star
Bajan
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AG
see, i dont think anyone is espousing on this thread that recruiting is the end all be all and coaching is the end all be all.

so what the hell are we arguing about? the relative weight?

i bet if we asked everyone on this thread for a relative % weight most would be a lot nearer 50/50 then not.

obviously its give and take, better recruits will compensate for worse coaching and vice versa. to be at the top of CFB world you need to have both because those teams at the top have achieved that.
GI
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Basically as far as star ratings:

5-star: Can only develop so much.

4-star: Can be developed really well in most cases

3-star: Easiest to coach up

2-star: Limited ceiling with some, unlimited potential with others
MaxPower
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quote:
I don't know that I agree. Recruiting is at least 60% of the equation. Some people like to say Mack Brown is a poor coach but he's a great recruiter. He's been good for at least 9 wins a season since arriving at Texas.
The people saying that are morons. Does that answer your question clearly enough?
TxAginAz
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AG
Recruiting is big part of the equation, imo. What percentage? Who knows. But good Coaching can't just be ignored either. And it also depends on the individual Coach.

Coaches like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Jim Tressel, and Brian Kelly have won right off the bat with the previous Coach's recruits where ever they have been.



*********************************************************************************************************************
"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their women."

sodiumacetate
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GI: If you're going to bring up things like the star ratings of the AA's or the star ratings of 1st round draft picks, you also have to recognize that there are substantially more 2 and 3 star recruits than 4 star recruits and substantially more 4-star recruits than 5-star recruits. There have been numerous studies done over the years and the results basically say that a 5-star recruit has a lot higher chance (more than twice as high of a percentage) of being an AA or 1st round draft pick than a 4-star recruit. A 3-star recruit has about a 2% chance of making AA or getting drafted in the first round. It's even less for a 2-star.
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