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****OFFICIAL 2016 BCS MARATHON WEATHER THREAD****

1,675 Views | 7 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Air Force Ags
Air Force Ags
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8:20p, 12/2/16
AG
****2 Dec 8:00 PM Update****

There is a large degree of uncertainty on when exactly a cold front will pass through on race day, especially this far out. Thus, the forecast could change significantly. Right now, it looks like pretty good running conditions, except for the wind.

It will be cool and breezy with a good chance of light showers. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a 0.02 to 0.07."

The temperature will start out in the upper-40s and rise into the mid-to-upper-50s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from 95% in early AM to 75% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 42 at race time to 54 by noon.

Good luck!

Cheers,

Doc


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Air Force Ags
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7:15p, 12/3/16
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Update: Decreased rain chances & amounts.

Overview: There is a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing and placement of an upper-level disturbance and whether or not it will produce rain.

It will be cool and breezy with a slight chance of light showers. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a trace to 0.05."


The temperature will start out in the upper-40s and rise into the upper-50s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from 95% in early AM to 75% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 42 at race time to 54 by noon.

Good luck!

Cheers,

Doc

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Air Force Ags
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9:44p, 12/4/16
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****4 Dec 9:30 PM Update****

Update: Raised temperatures a couple of degrees.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing and placement of an upper-level disturbance and stationary front south of BCS and whether or not they will produce rain. Right now, the highest chance of rain will be east and south of BCS.

It will be cool and breezy with a slight chance of light showers. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a trace to 0.05."

The temperature will start out near 50 and rise to near 60 by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from 95% in early AM to 75% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 44 at race time to 57 by noon.

Cheers,

Doc

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9:20p, 12/5/16
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****5 Dec 9:00 PM Update****

Update: Raised temperatures and relative humidity and switched winds out of the south out ahead of an advancing cold front in NW Texas.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing and placement of minor upper-level disturbances after passage of a warm front on Saturday brings in increased moisture and whether or not this set up will produce rain. Right now, the highest chance of rain should remain to the south and east of BCS.

It will be cool & breezy with a slight chance of light showers, becoming mild & humid by late morning. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a trace to 0.05."

The temperature will start out in the mid-50s and rise into the mid-to-upper-60s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from near 100% in early AM to 85% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 51 at race time and not be a factor by mid-to-late AM as temp climbs well above 60.

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8:39p, 12/6/16
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****6 Dec 8:30 PM Update****

Update: No significant changes.

There is a little more certainty concerning the timing and location of minor upper-level disturbances after passage of a warm front on Saturday brings in increased moisture. The best chance for rain should remain to the south and east of BCS along the warm front.

It will be cool & breezy with a slight chance of passing light showers, becoming mild & humid by late morning. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a trace to 0.05."

The temperature will start out in the mid-50s and rise into the mid-to-upper-60s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from near 100% in early AM to 85% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 50 at race time and not be a factor by mid-to-late AM as temp climbs well above 60.

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10:20p, 12/7/16
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****7 Dec 10:00 PM Update:

Update: There is more certainty concerning the timing and location of minor upper-level disturbances after passage of a warm front on Saturday brings increased moisture in advance of pre-frontal trough slated to pass BCS Sunday mid-to-late afternoon. The best chance for rain & thunderstorms should remain to the south and east of BCS closer to the warm front; however, the chance of rain has increased and there is now a very small chance of a thunderstorm. In addition, the rainfall amounts have been bumped up slightly. Finally, with more rain, the temps will not be quite as warm.

Race Weather: It will be cool & breezy with passing light showers likely & a remote chance of isolated storm, becoming mild & humid by late morning. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a 0.02" to 0.08." The temperature will start out in the mid-50s and rise into the mid-60s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from near 100% in early AM to 85% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 50 at race time and not be a factor by mid-to-late AM as temp climbs above 60.

Cheers,

Doc



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7:20p, 12/8/16
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****8 Dec 7:10 PM Update****

Update: Increased rain chances for early AM, but lowered them slightly for late AM/early afternoon. Also, decreased rainfall amounts slightly & brought down storm chances. Finally, upped wind gusts to 25-30 mph after 10 AM.

Race Weather: It will be cool & breezy with passing light showers likely, especially before 9 AM, becoming mild & humid by late morning. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a 0.01" to 0.06." The temperature will start out in the mid-50s and rise into the mid-60s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from near 100% in early AM to 90% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 51 at race time and not be a factor by mid-to-late AM as temp climbs above 60.

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8:30p, 12/9/16
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****9 Dec 8:20 PM Update****

Update: Increased temps a few degrees as mercury will be rising overnight and during the race due to strong southerly winds ushering in warm & moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.


Race Weather: I t will be cool & breezy to start with passing light showers likely, especially before 9 AM, becoming mild & humid by mid-morning. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a 0.01" to 0.06." The temperature will start out in the mid-50s and rise into the mid-60s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from near 100% in early AM to 90% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 52 at race time and not be a factor by mid-to-late AM as temp climbs above 60.

Cheers,

Doc

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2:43p, 12/10/16
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****10 Dec 2:30 PM Update****

Update: Decreased chances of intermittent light showers from 70% to 50% and lowered thunderstorm/lightning probabilities to 0%.

Race Weather: It will be cool & breezy to start with a good chance of passing light showers, becoming mild & humid by mid-morning. Possible rainfall amounts during the race could range from a 0.01" to 0.06." The temperature will start out in the mid-50s and rise into the mid-60s by early afternoon with relative humidity values ranging from near 100% in early AM to 90% by early afternoon. The wind chill will range from 51 at race time and not be a factor by mid-to-late AM as temp climbs above 60.

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