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Tine Coronavirus thread

2,496,837 Views | 20959 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Ciboag96
J. Walter Weatherman
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gougler08 said:

htxag09 said:

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

Why are people getting tested if they show no symptoms or don't have a potential exposure?

Whats the point? You can test clean and pick up the vorus at the 7-11 getting gas on the way home?

Seriously what good is random testing?



This has been discussed multiple times. There are lots of possible reasons.

Maybe they're going to see family or friends but want to confirm they aren't asymptomatic.

Negative test required for work.

Negative test required for travel.

Negative test required for surgeries/test required to be admitted to hospital.
If positivity rate is really what our dumbass leaders are going to measure things by, then I'm all for a bunch of folks that aren't sick going to get tested, helps the metric


True. But they'll just change to a new metric that keeps the fear levels high. And our idiot media will continue to push the fear porn.
XpressAg09
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chjoak said:

Sly & Lina may be trying so hard to keep up the appearance of things being bad so they can raise property taxes without our approval
This is why we need someone from the Private Sector in government. Now, during the middle of a shut-down economy is not the time to be increasing taxes. I can't fathom this.
gougler08
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Fort Bend reports 483 cases today, but 415 are from the Texas Trace thing so probably 2-4 months old. Just when i think the data can't get worse we go and do things like count cases from March now
Dr. Doctor
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If you increase testing, then more people who have the virus but no symptoms will hopefully stay home.

This lowers the R0 which makes the virus go away.

You want to know why south Korea and every other country caused their numbers to go down and away? Test everyone and then those positive stay home.

Yes it will help pressure the politicians in charge to let up on things so we can go back to a normal life.

~egon
cone
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so how do you do sentinel surveillance?

because most all testing right now is voluntary and either as a one off work-related deal or is in response to some form of symptoms or maybe a self-motivated follow up based on close contact with a positive

which means as the outbreak abates and paranoia falls testing volume will likely decrease significantly

in short, how do you get people to voluntarily get a potentially painful diagnostic, maybe multiple times over the course of time? and who's paying for it?

increase testing is a nice slogan but it takes two to tango in a non-authoritarian state
Al Bula
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cone said:

so how do you do sentinel surveillance?
in my house this is how we do sentinel surveillance.

JYDog90
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cone said:

so how do you do sentinel surveillance?

because most all testing right now is voluntary and either as a one off work-related deal or is in response to some form of symptoms or maybe a self-motivated follow up based on close contact with a positive

which means as the outbreak abates and paranoia falls testing volume will likely decrease significantly

in short, how do you get people to voluntarily get a potentially painful diagnostic, maybe multiple times over the course of time? and who's paying for it?

increase testing is a nice slogan but it takes two to tango in a non-authoritarian state


I can't remember what side you're on on any of this stuff.
Formerly Willy Wonka
T Durden
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I thought he switched over to be an explosion expert after the Beirut deal...
cone
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does it matter
Ronnie
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Ocean Of Funk said:

cone said:

so how do you do sentinel surveillance?
in my house this is how we do sentinel surveillance.


Available on Disney plus, in case you were wondering.

I heard somebody say. Some nerd.
JYDog90
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cone said:

does it matter


Yes! Because I'm beginning to think you just like arguing both sides and your ultimate goal is just to see the whole world burn.
Formerly Willy Wonka
cone
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having heterodox opinions doesn't make you a nihilist

but who cares
AgsMyDude
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Sides? We supposed to be wearing our team jersey or what?


CoronaBros

Vs

NothingBurgers
Ag_07
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Why are all the news outlets reporting a positive rate at just under 15%?

I thought we were in single digits already?
chjoak
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TMC is reporting single digits. CoH is reporting 15%. I've seen some claim it is because TMC covers multiple counties. It's either that or the city data is behind a few days.
XpressAg09
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Ag_07 said:

Why are all the news outlets reporting a positive rate at just under 15%?

I thought we were in single digits already?
Because they're using a 14 day rolling average, instead of seven, which is a metric that literally no one has used until today.

Technically, they're correct, but they're selectively picking datasets that fit the narrative.
cone
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how does the county testing volume compare to the TMC volume?
jobu93
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XpressAg09 said:

Ag_07 said:

Why are all the news outlets reporting a positive rate at just under 15%?

I thought we were in single digits already?
Because they're using a 14 day rolling average, instead of seven, which is a metric that literally no one has used until today.

Technically, they're correct, but they're selectively picking datasets that fit the narrative.


Oh FFS, Lina. Get yourself together and stop being a fear peddler.
cone
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i can't imagine why voluntary testing numbers are decreasing on the backside of the epidemic curve

maybe the local officials can come up with a better way to get testing volume up outside of twitter nudges

c'mon on, Sly/Lina. this is your moment.
chjoak
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Didn't dig into the numbers but TMC looked like there was a spike where the city did not. That's why I assumed the city had a lag in data reporting.

TMC


vs city


That looks like a lag in data to me
chimpanzee
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Dr. Doctor said:

If you increase testing, then more people who have the virus but no symptoms will hopefully stay home.

This lowers the R0 which makes the virus go away.

You want to know why south Korea and every other country caused their numbers to go down and away? Test everyone and then those positive stay home.

Yes it will help pressure the politicians in charge to let up on things so we can go back to a normal life.

~egon

I'll see your South Korea and raise you Peru, Australia, Hawaii and maybe now New Zealand.

I want to know why places where everyone was forced to stay home didn't cause their numbers to go down and away while those right next to them that remained open had nearly identical and sometimes better stats. See also Copenhagen and Malmo. There is no correlation between suppression of transmission and lockdowns.

But if you assent to a politician's non-disprovable position that makes them the hero, they may let you go back to your life once the last metric that they can no longer fudge via duplicate counting, forward dating, time horizon changing and moving modelling assumptions finally hits zero. Right.

Look at the Kansas masking graph and get back to me on how much you trust politicians to respond reasonably.
tylercsbn9
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cone said:



i can't imagine why voluntary testing numbers are decreasing on the backside of the epidemic curve

maybe the local officials can come up with a better way to get testing volume up outside of twitter nudges

c'mon on, Sly/Lina. this is your moment.


I live how Reddit is spinning this. One moron even says they're going down because it's back to school time and parents don't want tests so they can get positives thus their kids can't go to school
Keegan99
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Positivity rate is a worthless metric.

If one was randomly sampling the population using rigorous standards, tracking dates, denominators, and demographics meticulously, then it would have some value. But that's not at all what we are doing, so it's trash.


Want to know where things are, and where we are headed?

Look at CLI and ILI surveillance data.



(via Texas2036.org)

This is very nearly real-time. No multi-day lag in reporting. The data collection system has been around for years to monitor flu seasons.

When was the CLI / ILI peak in Texas? Right around the start of July.

When is the death peak in Texas? Just about two weeks later!



(What's curious is the CLI / ILI has a bit of a double peak, and the fatality curve even seems to be showing something similar. Will be interesting to see if that holds as the fatality curve is completed.)


This is not that hard.


And where are we now? Right around where we were at the end of May.
ChemAg15
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Reddit is Chinese propoganda trash
Fitch
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Harris County

XpressAg09
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Today's fun fact:

August has seen one death in Harris County, per their own dashboard.

cone
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Quote:

If one was randomly sampling the population using rigorous standards, tracking dates, denominators, and demographics meticulously, then it would have some value. But that's not at all what we are doing, so it's trash.
100% agree

it's a trash metric that's tweetable. that's the only value right now.

it is at least somewhat meaningful when you're actively trying to mitigate epidemics spread and looking for peaks/slopes (or more like holy **** voluntary test volumes are up and positivity is spiking). but we're past that.

sts7049
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chimpanzee said:

Dr. Doctor said:

If you increase testing, then more people who have the virus but no symptoms will hopefully stay home.

This lowers the R0 which makes the virus go away.

You want to know why south Korea and every other country caused their numbers to go down and away? Test everyone and then those positive stay home.

Yes it will help pressure the politicians in charge to let up on things so we can go back to a normal life.

~egon

I'll see your South Korea and raise you Peru, Australia, Hawaii and maybe now New Zealand.

I want to know why places where everyone was forced to stay home didn't cause their numbers to go down and away while those right next to them that remained open had nearly identical and sometimes better stats. See also Copenhagen and Malmo. There is no correlation between suppression of transmission and lockdowns.

But if you assent to a politician's non-disprovable position that makes them the hero, they may let you go back to your life once the last metric that they can no longer fudge via duplicate counting, forward dating, time horizon changing and moving modelling assumptions finally hits zero. Right.

Look at the Kansas masking graph and get back to me on how much you trust politicians to respond reasonably.
argentina has been in lockdown since mid march. and in spite of some of the strictest measures on paper, it hasn't stopped cases from continuing to rise.
chimpanzee
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sts7049 said:

chimpanzee said:

Dr. Doctor said:

If you increase testing, then more people who have the virus but no symptoms will hopefully stay home.

This lowers the R0 which makes the virus go away.

You want to know why south Korea and every other country caused their numbers to go down and away? Test everyone and then those positive stay home.

Yes it will help pressure the politicians in charge to let up on things so we can go back to a normal life.

~egon

I'll see your South Korea and raise you Peru, Australia, Hawaii and maybe now New Zealand.

I want to know why places where everyone was forced to stay home didn't cause their numbers to go down and away while those right next to them that remained open had nearly identical and sometimes better stats. See also Copenhagen and Malmo. There is no correlation between suppression of transmission and lockdowns.

But if you assent to a politician's non-disprovable position that makes them the hero, they may let you go back to your life once the last metric that they can no longer fudge via duplicate counting, forward dating, time horizon changing and moving modelling assumptions finally hits zero. Right.

Look at the Kansas masking graph and get back to me on how much you trust politicians to respond reasonably.
argentina has been in lockdown since mid march. and in spite of some of the strictest measures on paper, it hasn't stopped cases from continuing to rise.
Exactly, as has Peru, my example. Both inconveniently close to Brazil that backed off their own lockdown after a court threw it out, and they're doing no worse.

While we're at it, let me know the cost/benefit of isolating asymptomatic individuals that pop positive on a PCR test because they're still shedding RNA from the virus they got over (or never knew they had) three weeks ago. Let me know how adding them to the stats that the politicians and media have been misinterpreting for months is helpful to anything.

This whole approach had been beaten to an absolute pulp by scientific literature published before 2020, but it was thrown out because you can't prove immediately that some a**hole politician's ideas aren't helping nor will people be able to perceive the damage that is being done until the "stimulus" checks run out and the economic impact of printing money comes home to roost.
htxag09
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XpressAg09 said:

Today's fun fact:

August has seen one death in Harris County, per their own dashboard.



You know this is worthless to follow. It takes 2 weeks to 3 months to categorize deaths. The data we are using to make decisions is complete and utter crap.
Silky Johnston
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I used to enjoy Reddit, but it has become a cesspool. WhitePeopleHumor was funny at one point, but it is now just posts of tweets about how Trump sucks and how socialism is the best.
Bondag
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htxag09 said:

XpressAg09 said:

Today's fun fact:

August has seen one death in Harris County, per their own dashboard.



You know this is worthless to follow. It takes 2 weeks to 3 months to categorize deaths. The data we are using to make decisions is complete and utter crap.
I listened to Dan Crenshaw talk with a cardiologist at the Med Center last week. He noted that most of the deaths that are being reported are not people that walked into the hospital yesterday, but that have been there for 2-3 months.

With the treatments available now they are able to get people in and out, or avoid the hospital completely. Mentioned promise with the Remdesivir treating the truly sick and that there are 2-3 inhalers that are already available for things like Asthma entering stange 2 or 3 of trials that could be approved in the next few weeks.

Open back up.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/facts-not-fear-what-doctors-are-learning-on-front-lines/id1498149200?i=1000487357329
BohunkAg
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cone said:



i can't imagine why voluntary testing numbers are decreasing on the backside of the epidemic curve

maybe the local officials can come up with a better way to get testing volume up outside of twitter nudges

c'mon on, Sly/Lina. this is your moment.
The Texas Tribune alternates between having good info and just throwing gas on a fire.
Ag_07
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Let's do online learning only. What could go wrong?

Humble ISD experiences cyber attack during first day of virtual learning
ptothemo
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This is one of those things that would be better if the news didn't publish it, because it only increases the likelihood of copycats. I am not a fan of the remote learning in general, but I also think that methods like this to attack it are just going to make things way worse. And there are plenty of people out there who could pull off a denial of service pretty easily given the fact that the infrastructure and security supporting the remote learning is likely not top notch.
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