My neighbor is an ICU doc in med center. He had not been concerned throughout but is now. Has his own family locked down for the next two weeks.

This is a conservative guy politically that is reluctant to submit to govt mandates. If he's worried I figure it is with good reason.

Let's assume we don't get a vaccine for a year. Or five years. Or ten. Or ever.

What are we supposed to do? Stay closed, stay home, stay masked forever?

IrishTxAggie said:

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ATM9000 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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That's why I've shared from multiple sources. I don't trust any of them, but put them out there for others to see and draw their own conclusion

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So in real life, do you just share data you don't trust?

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I've been pretty damn consistent in sharing data from multiple sources throughout this entire thing. I'll share data that i believe to be closer to my belief just as often as I've shared data that wasn't. Make your own informed decision from it.

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Glad you are consistent, but you've just indicated you aren't credible when it comes to this topic.

I'm sure there is a middle ground we can all follow to keep this in check until a vaccine is available. We can start by having the majority of the population take this seriously and try to minimize the amount of people that they come in contact with. Going full lockdown for a year wont help as the consequences of that may be just as bad or worse. But we can be smart about going out and minimizing the number of people we come in contact with rather than treating this like its just a flu.

Just watched Sylvester Turners pc. Says in the last two days have had over 1700 positive cases. Then says testing on these cases was done between June 9th -17th. Can somebody remind me what was happening before and during that time?

cajunaggie08 said:

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I'm sure there is a middle ground we can all follow to keep this in check until a vaccine is available. We can start by having the majority of the population take this seriously and try to minimize the amount of people that they come in contact with. Going full lockdown for a year wont help as the consequences of that may be just as bad or worse. But we can be smart about going out and minimizing the number of people we come in contact with rather than treating this like its just a flu.

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Well that's it....no matter how long anyone locked down for, there's gonna be a spike when you open back up....so it was either see a spike when you open back up or wait inside until there's a vaccine....if there ever even is one!

oglaw said:

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Just watched Sylvester Turners pc. Says in the last two days have had over 1700 positive cases. Then says testing on these cases was done between June 9th -17th. Can somebody remind me what was happening before and during that time?

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You are gonna get in trouble for talking about that.

BohunkAg said:

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cajunaggie08 said:

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I'm sure there is a middle ground we can all follow to keep this in check until a vaccine is available. We can start by having the majority of the population take this seriously and try to minimize the amount of people that they come in contact with. Going full lockdown for a year wont help as the consequences of that may be just as bad or worse. But we can be smart about going out and minimizing the number of people we come in contact with rather than treating this like its just a flu.

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Well that's it....no matter how long anyone locked down for, there's gonna be a spike when you open back up....so it was either see a spike when you open back up or wait inside until there's a vaccine....if there ever even is one!

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Exactly. If we get scared off by a spike, we're going to have to just stay closed forever. There will always be a spike when people have the opportunity to leave their homes, return to work, return to entertainment.

https://www.setrac.org/

Feel free to check it for yourself. I set the toggle to Harris county

jayelbee said:

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We, as a collective, basically had 2 choices: Lots of pain, all up front, with potentially very dangerous health outcomes or commit to flattening the curve for 6-18 months until you get some herd immunity and can effectively manage the cases. Instead, we were stupid and decided to half ass it somewhere in between, potentially exposing ourselves to the worst outcomes of both paths and making as absolutely paint full as possible for the whole population.

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If the past three months have been the half-ass version, I can't imagine what whole-assing it for 6-18 months would be like. Don't see how you do even more than we've done without (even more) completely ruining the economy and lives forever. THAT sounds like a death sentence.

It continues to amaze me how much energy and effort people go through to support the "its not a big deal/no masks because they don't work/freedom" and "the sky is falling/hospitals are overloaded/people who leave their house are evil" positions with minimal effort to see the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

The virus is here to stay, for the foreseeable future. We can either find ways to live with it while maximizing public safety, or we'll end up right back at a shutdown similar to March/April.

I don't know how you were expecting the collective population to maintain the same sort of discipline advocated in March after the NYC serology results came out and put the massive epidemic death rate around 1% for the full cohort and the hospitalization rate around 4%, with both rates heavily weighted towards ages above retirement

it's still much worse than the flu but not for the full cohort. and not for the people most likely to be social to begin with.

jayelbee said:

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Most people don't understand what flatting the curve means and entails. The whole point was lower, longer. Reopening goes completely against this approach and that's why you're seeing spikes now. The spikes are a problem, because it means you're failing at flattening the curve. People and the government deciding to abandon the plan after 4 weeks is why we are here today.

We, as a collective, basically had 2 choices: Lots of pain, all up front, with potentially very dangerous health outcomes or commit to flattening the curve for 6-18 months until you get some herd immunity and can effectively manage the cases. Instead, we were stupid and decided to half ass it somewhere in between, potentially exposing ourselves to the worst outcomes of both paths and making as absolutely paint full as possible for the whole population.

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6-18 months???? when did that happen? Did you want to keep everyone not working for that period of time? Don't you remember what that was like?

Texan_Aggie said:

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It continues to amaze me how much energy and effort people go through to support the "its not a big deal/no masks because they don't work/freedom" and "the sky is falling/hospitals are overloaded/people who leave their house are evil" positions with minimal effort to see the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

The virus is here to stay, for the foreseeable future. We can either find ways to live with it while maximizing public safety, or we'll end up right back at a shutdown similar to March/April.

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Because apparently there can be no middle ground on anything in America anymore. It's insane.

Here's the thing everyone needs to keep in mind when advocating for more restrictive policies: we haven't yet really dealt with the fallout of the original lockdown because stimulus cash was flowing. We are about to the point where those dollars are going to dry up.

So we have a choice: more funny money or take a deep breath, brave the world we live in, know that we've stocked up on hospital capacity and medical gear and get on with our lives.

A second lockdown - especially absent more stimulus - will be extinction-level destructive to large segments of the economy.

I'm not saying don't be safe. I'm saying don't get out there encourage mass riots or generally being stupid.

jayelbee said:

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Most people don't understand what flatting the curve means and entails. The whole point was lower, longer. Reopening goes completely against this approach and that's why you're seeing spikes now. The spikes are a problem, because it means you're failing at flattening the curve. People and the government deciding to abandon the plan after 4 weeks is why we are here today.

We, as a collective, basically had 2 choices: Lots of pain, all up front, with potentially very dangerous health outcomes or commit to flattening the curve for 6-18 months until you get some herd immunity and can effectively manage the cases. Instead, we were stupid and decided to half ass it somewhere in between, potentially exposing ourselves to the worst outcomes of both paths and making as absolutely paint full as possible for the whole population.

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We were sold that we needed to close up shop for 2 weeks to flatten the curve...we did it for 2+ months (or still are in some states) so I think the message of open up but be cautious is the right one now

Just two more weeks.

TexAgs1992 said:

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Just two more weeks.

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Just 2 more years...

It's LSU...somebody probably took the first test for him.