Diggity said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

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"The extent of damage from the virus may be greater than we anticipated, and the indirect effects of the virus may be greater than we anticipated," said Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist and professor at Yale Medical School, who is particularly concerned that patients with cardiac conditions are not seeking care because of the fear of being infected with coronavirus. "Meaning that the overall toll is much greater."

The overall rise in deaths suggests that the combination of crowded hospitals, an overtaxed ambulance system and a fearful population could have resulted in more deaths among people with heart attacks, strokes or other ailments who might have survived in normal circumstances.

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Texaggie7nine said:

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So fear of CV without actually getting it is what you attribute to be the majority of the increase causing more than double the daily deaths?

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Texaggie7nine said:

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My point was you stated that there are other things out there right now in the air that are just as dangerous and just as likely for me to catch as CV, and that I should forever wear a mask to be consistent.

I'm asking you what else has produced as many bodies in such a short time that I need to worry about being as likely to catch, and thus wear a mask at all times.


Also if you took away from that NYT article that most of the increase in deaths is from people afraid to go to the hospital... there is no point in continuing.

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But the deaths over the last month dwarf what would be expected from seasonal variations, and look more like a mass casualty event. The city's medical examiner's office is holding bodies in refrigerated trailers outside of hospitals. City emergency medical technicians are declaring deaths in homes and on the streets instead of bringing people to hospitals.

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Social distancing and stay at home orders have never been about preventing deaths. Preventing deaths is just a side effect of trying to prevent too many people from getting sick at the same time and overwhelming the hospitals.

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aTm2004 said:

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Texaggie7nine said:

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My point was you stated that there are other things out there right now in the air that are just as dangerous and just as likely for me to catch as CV, and that I should forever wear a mask to be consistent.

I'm asking you what else has produced as many bodies in such a short time that I need to worry about being as likely to catch, and thus wear a mask at all times.


Also if you took away from that NYT article that most of the increase in deaths is from people afraid to go to the hospital... there is no point in continuing.

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There are always viruses and bacteria out there that are dangerous and potentially deadly. You're assuming the current death rate is accurate, and I don't agree for the 2 reasons I've posted earlier (with it is counted, and we don't k is the true denominator, which is growing everyday). I don't believe the death rate is near the 5.5% that the Johns Hopkins numbers are showing. I believe it is much much o lower. Then couple all of this with the microscopic view we're giving this vs. other stuff, and it looks like it's one of the deadliest viruses ever. I'm just not buying it.

What did you take from the article, because what I got from it is people who otherwise would have seeked medical attention aren't.

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But the deaths over the last month dwarf what would be expected from seasonal variations, and look more like a mass casualty event. The city's medical examiner's office is holding bodies in refrigerated trailers outside of hospitals. City emergency medical technicians are declaring deaths in homes and on the streets instead of bringing people to hospitals.

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The recent numbers are most likely an undercount. Even in normal times, death certificates take time to be processed and collected, and complete death tallies can take weeks to become final. This is especially true for cases involving coronavirus. "Covid deaths all have to be manually coded," said Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the C.D.C.'s National Center for Health Statistics, adding that death counts from New York City typically lag actual deaths by 10 or 11 days.
But even if the current count is perfect, roughly 9,780 people have died of all causes over the past month in New York City, about 5,000 more than is typical.

The numbers for the last two weeks of the period are even more stark: nearly 7,000 dead, more than three times as many deaths as would normally be expected this time of year.

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aTm2004 said:

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Social distancing and stay at home orders have never been about preventing deaths. Preventing deaths is just a side effect of trying to prevent too many people from getting sick at the same time and overwhelming the hospitals.

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I'm well aware it was to prevent overwhelming hospitals. So is my SIL who is a PA in an ER in Iowa (one of the states who doesn't have any restrictions), who is having shifts cut and having to use PTO to get paid or save PTO and not get paid. The same SIL who said she used to see 35-40 patients per shift only seeing 7 now. Yeah, overwhelming the hospitals. There are several healthcare workers on TA who are seeing their hospitals as ghost towns because of all of this as well.

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Texaggie7nine said:

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aTm2004 said:

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Texaggie7nine said:

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My point was you stated that there are other things out there right now in the air that are just as dangerous and just as likely for me to catch as CV, and that I should forever wear a mask to be consistent.

I'm asking you what else has produced as many bodies in such a short time that I need to worry about being as likely to catch, and thus wear a mask at all times.


Also if you took away from that NYT article that most of the increase in deaths is from people afraid to go to the hospital... there is no point in continuing.

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There are always viruses and bacteria out there that are dangerous and potentially deadly. You're assuming the current death rate is accurate, and I don't agree for the 2 reasons I've posted earlier (with it is counted, and we don't k is the true denominator, which is growing everyday). I don't believe the death rate is near the 5.5% that the Johns Hopkins numbers are showing. I believe it is much much o lower. Then couple all of this with the microscopic view we're giving this vs. other stuff, and it looks like it's one of the deadliest viruses ever. I'm just not buying it.

What did you take from the article, because what I got from it is people who otherwise would have seeked medical attention aren't.

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But the deaths over the last month dwarf what would be expected from seasonal variations, and look more like a mass casualty event. The city's medical examiner's office is holding bodies in refrigerated trailers outside of hospitals. City emergency medical technicians are declaring deaths in homes and on the streets instead of bringing people to hospitals.

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You think that is saying that most of those deaths are from people scared to go to the doctor? Most of the deaths are happening AT the hospitals.

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The recent numbers are most likely an undercount. Even in normal times, death certificates take time to be processed and collected, and complete death tallies can take weeks to become final. This is especially true for cases involving coronavirus. "Covid deaths all have to be manually coded," said Bob Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the C.D.C.'s National Center for Health Statistics, adding that death counts from New York City typically lag actual deaths by 10 or 11 days.
But even if the current count is perfect, roughly 9,780 people have died of all causes over the past month in New York City, about 5,000 more than is typical.

The numbers for the last two weeks of the period are even more stark: nearly 7,000 dead, more than three times as many deaths as would normally be expected this time of year.

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The article is not saying the majority of the 5k additional deaths are from patients not seeing their doctor out of fear. It simply says that could be another additional thing to raise the deaths above the already thousands and thousands of CV deaths.

In any case, CV is still ultimately the cause of those deaths. Just indirectly.

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I think the fact that some hospitals are ghost towns right now is probably a good thing, considering the circumstances. It's certainly a better problem to have than the alternative. Would you and/or your SIL rather have her hospital look like one in NYC?

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You asked what led to the death rate in NYC doubling, and I showed you in the article you posted what is believed to be the reason. You're saying it's COVID indirectly doing it by what I stated from the article.

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That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.

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aTm2004 said:

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I think the fact that some hospitals are ghost towns right now is probably a good thing, considering the circumstances. It's certainly a better problem to have than the alternative. Would you and/or your SIL rather have her hospital look like one in NYC?

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Some? Outside of NYC, who's leaders were saying it's nothing to fear and go to Chinatown, hospitals are hurting from the lack of "elective" procedures. Elective isn't only a boob job. It's also a hip replacement, needed skin graft, etc.

I'm sure my SIL would prefer to not see her hours and paychecks cut and live with the real fear of losing her job.

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On Tuesday, March 24, County Judge Lina Hidalgo signed a Stay Home, Work Safe order outlining measures to protect public health. The violators of this order are subject to fines and up to 180 days in jail. To report non-essential entities violating current public health orders click this link or call 832-839-6941.

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TXTransplant said:

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aTm2004 said:

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I think the fact that some hospitals are ghost towns right now is probably a good thing, considering the circumstances. It's certainly a better problem to have than the alternative. Would you and/or your SIL rather have her hospital look like one in NYC?

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Some? Outside of NYC, who's leaders were saying it's nothing to fear and go to Chinatown, hospitals are hurting from the lack of "elective" procedures. Elective isn't only a boob job. It's also a hip replacement, needed skin graft, etc.

I'm sure my SIL would prefer to not see her hours and paychecks cut and live with the real fear of losing her job.

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I think we did what we needed to do considering the information we had in early March. Things are slowly starting to open back up. I believe OK lifted the ban on elective procedures this week. Abbott lifted some restrictions last week and is expected to lift more in his announcement on Monday.

I can't speak to all 50 states, because, frankly, I haven't been keeping up with them all. But Houston/Harris County is the third largest metro area in the country. It wasn't unreasonable to think what happened in NYC or Seattle or Italy could have happened here. We simply didn't know what "best case scenario was", we only knew what "worst case" was and that we didn't want it to happen here.

I'm not going to get in a discussion about what politicians did or didn't say. There's been too many stupid statements made by a whole lot of people to even bother with that. I'll let them continue to point fingers at each other.

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Milwaukees Best Light said:

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I ain't readin all that bull***** Say what you need to say with gif.

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