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A warm and breezy day with some scattered showers will be followed by a severe weather event tomorrow evening through early Saturday morning. We are 1 day out and the enhanced risk area has been expanded to include areas S and SW of Houston. The enhanced risk area also includes all of ETX, portions of NTX including Dallas, and portions of Central TX including Austin. For SE TX any thunderstorms that develop late tomorrow afternoon and evening will need to be watched carefully as they could become supercells however they main threat will be overnight.

From this mornings Houston-Galveston NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

This will be a nocturnal severe weather threat, which will enhance the danger of the event. Not only does this mean that any severe weather that occurs will be harder to see, but also people are more likely to miss severe weather warnings. This is usually because they are either asleep or because they are out and about and may not have their usual means of receiving weather information. If you have plans or events scheduled for Friday night, now is the time to be considering changing those plans. Please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings (e.g. a NOAA Weather Radio, cell phone alerts, local TV/radio media) and know your plan of action in case a warning is issued for your area.

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tmaggie50 said:

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The 2 weather apps I have show nothing above 22mph winds. Weird that they wouldn't reflect this.

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Tonight (9 PM to 3 AM)

This will be the main timeframe that we see impacts from this event. Severe storms in Hill Country and the I-35 corridor should have congealed into an organized squall line by later this evening. Ahead of the line, we should see more numerous showers and a few thunderstorms begin to develop here. Any of those storms could become strong to severe, but it seems as though the primary concern will come from the squall line itself, which is going to quickly sweep across the region toward midnight.

As of right now, we expect the line to hit College Station around 9 or 10 PM, Huntsville through Sealy by 10 or 11 PM, the majority of the Houston metro area between 10 PM and Midnight, Galveston through Lake Jackson between 11 PM and 1 AM, and Beaumont/Port Arthur between about 1 to 3 AM. All those times are approximate and give or take an hour or so.

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Risk of severe weather tonight across the area

Main threats:
Straight line damaging winds of 60-75mph
Isolated tornadoes
Isolated large hail



Timing:
600-1100pm west (College Station to Columbus)

900-100am central (I-45 corridor, metro Houston)

1100pm-200am east (Lake Livingston to High Island)



Discussion:
Strong upper level trough digging into TX this morning with large warm sector in place over SE TX and powerful low level jet of 55-65kts over the eastern third of TX. Low level jet has brought tremendous moisture return across the area with surface dewpoints pushing into the upper 60's and lower 70's. Air mass over the area is capped and this will prevent any significant storms until very late this afternoon or more likely tonight. Surface winds are already in the 15-25mph range and these speeds will increase into the 20-30mph range this afternoon as surface low pressure deepens across N TX and OK. Widespread low cloud deck this morning will likely inhibit surface heating today and help maintain cap in play through much of the day. As deep layer ascent approaches this evening combined with surface forcing along the leading edge of the cold front, surface parcels should be forced through the weakening cap allowing a line of storms to develop (near I-35). Expectation is that capping over SE TX will hold through much of the afternoon and the chances for discrete supercells across the warm sector ahead of the approaching squall line appears low. While this threat it low, if a storm is able to develop and break the cap, extremely favorable low level shear profiles will be in place that would support strong low level rotation and a tornado threat. Best chances (still low) for any cells to break the cap will be in the Lake Livingston area (Walker, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity Counties) where the cap is weakest. A much more significant risk of potentially long tracked tornadoes will reside N of SE TX over the ARKLATX region.

Later tonight the development of a squall line along the I-35 corridor will move across SE TX. Main threats with this line will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes in any kinks or meso vortex signatures along the line. Line will move quickly across the area with forward speeds of 35-55mph. Any bowing segments in the line will likely produce corridors of wind damage. Highest severe threat will be along and N of HWY 105 with the less threat toward Matagorda Bay where the line may be more broken in nature.

Expect tornado or severe thunderstorms watches to be required for portions of SE TX by late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Summary:
Worst of the weather will be overnight with a squall line that crosses the region with main threats being damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Stay weather aware and make sure cell phones have wireless emergency alerts enabled (on) since much of the weather will likely occur late tonight into the overnight hours.

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The Milkman said:

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Will this impact my 12:30 tee time tomorrow?

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E said:

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The Milkman said:

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Will this impact my 12:30 tee time tomorrow?

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Sunny skies and muddy fairways... where are you playing and do you need a 4th?

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