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Get ready to go back to life in March, Austin

4,795 Views | 48 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by wadd96
AgSoccer2007
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https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/special-austin-city-council-meeting-thursday-could-result-in-more-covid-19-ordinances/

God, I hope I am wrong. Someone please tell me I am crazy.
KT 90
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Quote:

If council makes the decision to move to Stage 5, it would curtail business activity to essential businesses only and not allow for any outdoor gatherings.

Austin doesn't have the authority to move to essential businesses only. Austin (and other cities) have asked for authority to impose additional measures, but Abbott has said no and told them to do a better job of enforcing the current measures. It is pretty disingenuous of KXAN to not include that in their article when Abbott was interviewed live on KXAN yesterday afternoon and stated as such.

tailgatetimer10
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Literally a week ago he was saying "just force everyone to wear a mask"

One week later, not even enough time to see if mask are working, he's asking for a shut down? This is despite a 7 day average going lower.

I agree we need to take this seriously, but geez
austinag1997
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The 7-day avg is not decreasing. 753 new cases yesterday. Single day record for Travis Cty.

Disperse large groups like protests, and you may see a drop.
tailgatetimer10
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You cannot take 1 day, especially after backlogged cases are processed due to 4th of July. The 5 day average is 430, for example. Context of the data matters.

I am not saying that we are 'flat-lining' either. I am simply saying there's too many change points to draw a conclusion of what is working.
Potcake
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Hey General MacArthur,
The GB awaits your return.
fig96
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austinag1997 said:

The 7-day avg is not decreasing. 753 new cases yesterday. Single day record for Travis Cty.

Disperse large groups like protests, and you may see a drop.
Whether you believe it or not, there's been a lot written about how the protests haven't been linked to a significant increase in cases. We also haven't seen increases in some areas that had large protests while we have seen it in others so there would appear to be some truth to that.

Most increases are attributed to bars and restaurants opening back up, which makes sense if you think about people in close proximity indoors breathing the same air for a few hours. The increases overall seem to be most significant in states that opened up earlier.
austinag1997
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I could believe either of those scenarios being the cause of cases. Do have to believe that indoor crowds have to be infinitely worse than outdoor events. There are over 200 scientists that now believe this is an airborne disease, which may explain the high transmission rate.
tailgatetimer10
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Why can't it be a combination of both? For instance, the biggest argument that the 'protest didn't cause it' is they point at states that are closed down, not seeing as much of an impact.

In Texas, you could go to protest, then go out to eat, then go out for drinks, next day go to the gym. Leaving more opportunities to spread after spending hours in a large group where there was most definitely not social distancing. This is increasing the footprint.

We will never likely know, because this is all political (which it really shouldn't be). Plus being critical of a protest is seemingly a big no-no.
96ags
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fig96 said:

austinag1997 said:

The 7-day avg is not decreasing. 753 new cases yesterday. Single day record for Travis Cty.

Disperse large groups like protests, and you may see a drop.
Whether you believe it or not, there's been a lot written about how the protests haven't been linked to a significant increase in cases. We also haven't seen increases in some areas that had large protests while we have seen it in others so there would appear to be some truth to that.

Most increases are attributed to bars and restaurants opening back up, which makes sense if you think about people in close proximity indoors breathing the same air for a few hours. The increases overall seem to be most significant in states that opened up earlier.
I have seen some of those reports suggesting that the protest didn't result in increases.

I'm curious how the local officials are reconciling those reports with shutting down parks and multiple other outdoor venues. How can one be a danger and the other not?
KT 90
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96ags said:

fig96 said:

austinag1997 said:

The 7-day avg is not decreasing. 753 new cases yesterday. Single day record for Travis Cty.

Disperse large groups like protests, and you may see a drop.
Whether you believe it or not, there's been a lot written about how the protests haven't been linked to a significant increase in cases. We also haven't seen increases in some areas that had large protests while we have seen it in others so there would appear to be some truth to that.

Most increases are attributed to bars and restaurants opening back up, which makes sense if you think about people in close proximity indoors breathing the same air for a few hours. The increases overall seem to be most significant in states that opened up earlier.
I have seen some of those reports suggesting that the protest didn't result in increases.

I'm curious how the local officials are reconciling those reports with shutting down parks and multiple other outdoor venues. How can one be a danger and the other not?

I think the post right above yours answered your question for you:
"Plus being critical of a protest is seemingly a big no-no"

Aggietaco
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tailgatetimer10 said:

Why can't it be a combination of both? For instance, the biggest argument that the 'protest didn't cause it' is they point at states that are closed down, not seeing as much of an impact.

In Texas, you could go to protest, then go out to eat, then go out for drinks, next day go to the gym. Leaving more opportunities to spread after spending hours in a large group where there was most definitely not social distancing. This is increasing the footprint.

We will never likely know, because this is all political (which it really shouldn't be). Plus being critical of a protest is seemingly a big no-no.

It's definitely a combination but no one wants to admit that unsafe practices while protesting/marching or eating out with your family or friends led to increased numbers. Everything has to be black or white white these days. We can't even agree on whether the virus is a problem or not worth addressing.
fig96
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96ags said:

fig96 said:

austinag1997 said:

The 7-day avg is not decreasing. 753 new cases yesterday. Single day record for Travis Cty.

Disperse large groups like protests, and you may see a drop.
Whether you believe it or not, there's been a lot written about how the protests haven't been linked to a significant increase in cases. We also haven't seen increases in some areas that had large protests while we have seen it in others so there would appear to be some truth to that.

Most increases are attributed to bars and restaurants opening back up, which makes sense if you think about people in close proximity indoors breathing the same air for a few hours. The increases overall seem to be most significant in states that opened up earlier.
I have seen some of those reports suggesting that the protest didn't result in increases.

I'm curious how the local officials are reconciling those reports with shutting down parks and multiple other outdoor venues. How can one be a danger and the other not?
I don't think that was actually wasn't the case though, pretty sure parks were open most places (at least in Texas) later in May at the time of the protests. Places like theme parks were shut down, but that's a different scenario of standing in lines in the same spaces with people for extended periods of time.

And while it's a complicated issue, not allowing people to protest for whatever reason is a dangerous precedent to set. Also worth noting that were anti-mask/open things back up protests weeks before any of the BLM protests, albeit on a smaller scale.

Either way, the general consensus seems to be that the easiest way to contract COVID is to be in the same confined space with someone for a period of time. That's why being out at a park or outdoor space for whatever reason, grocery shopping, etc., aren't particularly high risk activities.
austinag1997
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Its political and that is part of the problem. Meanwhile Austin City Council is currently meeting about potential Stage 5 restrictions.
96ags
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Parks were closed for July 4th and outdoor venues are being restricted currently.

I personally don't give a damn what the protest is for, but if gathering in closely confined groups does not increase cases as long as it is held outside, then all other outdoor events should be unrestricted as well.

The hypocrisy and selective enforcement makes the whole thing seem political and is counter productive in my opinion.
fig96
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96ags said:

Parks were closed for July 4th and outdoor venues are being restricted currently.

I personally don't give a damn what the protest is for, but if gathering in closely confined groups does not increase cases as long as it is held outside, then all other outdoor events should be unrestricted as well.

The hypocrisy and selective enforcement makes the whole thing seem political and is counter productive in my opinion.
Parks were closed for the 4th to avoid overcrowding over the holiday weekend, but the bulk of the protests were a month to six weeks ago. Those restrictions weren't in place then.

The whole COVID mess has been politicized on both sides since the beginning unfortunately.
96ags
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fig96 said:

96ags said:

Parks were closed for July 4th and outdoor venues are being restricted currently.

I personally don't give a damn what the protest is for, but if gathering in closely confined groups does not increase cases as long as it is held outside, then all other outdoor events should be unrestricted as well.

The hypocrisy and selective enforcement makes the whole thing seem political and is counter productive in my opinion.
Parks were closed for the 4th to avoid overcrowding over the holiday weekend, but the bulk of the protests were a month to six weeks ago. Those restrictions weren't in place then.

The whole COVID mess has been politicized on both sides since the beginning unfortunately.
But why worry about overcrowding? There was no limit on the amount of people allowed to protest and if the protest played no role in increasing the cases, then there shouldn't be a concern about overcrowding at parks or other outdoor venues.

It really can't be both ways. Either not limiting the protest was a mistake or the shut downs and restriction on other outdoor venues is unnecessary and an overreach.

Surely you can see the conflict.
fig96
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96ags said:

fig96 said:

96ags said:

Parks were closed for July 4th and outdoor venues are being restricted currently.

I personally don't give a damn what the protest is for, but if gathering in closely confined groups does not increase cases as long as it is held outside, then all other outdoor events should be unrestricted as well.

The hypocrisy and selective enforcement makes the whole thing seem political and is counter productive in my opinion.
Parks were closed for the 4th to avoid overcrowding over the holiday weekend, but the bulk of the protests were a month to six weeks ago. Those restrictions weren't in place then.

The whole COVID mess has been politicized on both sides since the beginning unfortunately.
But why worry about overcrowding? There was no limit on the amount of people allowed to protest and if the protest played no role in increasing the cases, then there shouldn't be a concern about overcrowding at parks or other outdoor venues.

It really can't be both ways. Either not limiting the protest was a mistake or the shut downs and restriction on other outdoor venues is unnecessary and an overreach.

Surely you can see the conflict.
Because overcrowding at a park, particularly on a weekend people generally do cookouts and picnics, results in people sitting next to each other and potentially interacting for hours.

People walking around at a protest, or even just hanging out at a park on a typical day, aren't next to the same people for extended periods of time.
96ags
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fig96 said:

96ags said:

fig96 said:

96ags said:

Parks were closed for July 4th and outdoor venues are being restricted currently.

I personally don't give a damn what the protest is for, but if gathering in closely confined groups does not increase cases as long as it is held outside, then all other outdoor events should be unrestricted as well.

The hypocrisy and selective enforcement makes the whole thing seem political and is counter productive in my opinion.
Parks were closed for the 4th to avoid overcrowding over the holiday weekend, but the bulk of the protests were a month to six weeks ago. Those restrictions weren't in place then.

The whole COVID mess has been politicized on both sides since the beginning unfortunately.
But why worry about overcrowding? There was no limit on the amount of people allowed to protest and if the protest played no role in increasing the cases, then there shouldn't be a concern about overcrowding at parks or other outdoor venues.

It really can't be both ways. Either not limiting the protest was a mistake or the shut downs and restriction on other outdoor venues is unnecessary and an overreach.

Surely you can see the conflict.
Because overcrowding at a park, particularly on a weekend people generally do cookouts and picnics, results in people sitting next to each other and potentially interacting for hours.

People walking around at a protest, or even just hanging out at a park on a typical day, aren't next to the same people for extended periods of time.
That is utter nonsense and I just don't buy that you believe what you just typed. Simply disingenuous to even suggest there is such a stark difference between the two.

tailgatetimer10
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fig96
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96ags said:

fig96 said:

96ags said:

fig96 said:

96ags said:

Parks were closed for July 4th and outdoor venues are being restricted currently.

I personally don't give a damn what the protest is for, but if gathering in closely confined groups does not increase cases as long as it is held outside, then all other outdoor events should be unrestricted as well.

The hypocrisy and selective enforcement makes the whole thing seem political and is counter productive in my opinion.
Parks were closed for the 4th to avoid overcrowding over the holiday weekend, but the bulk of the protests were a month to six weeks ago. Those restrictions weren't in place then.

The whole COVID mess has been politicized on both sides since the beginning unfortunately.
But why worry about overcrowding? There was no limit on the amount of people allowed to protest and if the protest played no role in increasing the cases, then there shouldn't be a concern about overcrowding at parks or other outdoor venues.

It really can't be both ways. Either not limiting the protest was a mistake or the shut downs and restriction on other outdoor venues is unnecessary and an overreach.

Surely you can see the conflict.
Because overcrowding at a park, particularly on a weekend people generally do cookouts and picnics, results in people sitting next to each other and potentially interacting for hours.

People walking around at a protest, or even just hanging out at a park on a typical day, aren't next to the same people for extended periods of time.
That is utter nonsense and I just don't buy that you believe what you just typed. Simply disingenuous to even suggest there is such a stark difference between the two.
I'm not saying there's necessarily a stark difference, but I can see the reasoning. I don't have a problem with people being out at the parks in general, but I understand why the city would want to try to avoid an influx of people at public places as case numbers are increasing.

And I think the "they didn't have increases in other places with protests, but we did and we had protests and opened up so it could be both" argument is nonsense as well
fig96
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tailgatetimer10 said:


Is this from one of the cities that is or isn't seeing a significant increase in cases? Because they look the same.

I'm surprised by it too, but if protests did cause a significant increase in cases why aren't we seeing that same increase everywhere that had protests?
emando2000
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fig96 said:

tailgatetimer10 said:


Is this from one of the cities that is or isn't seeing a significant increase in cases? Because they look the same.

I'm surprised by it too, but if protests did cause a significant increase in cases why aren't we seeing that same increase everywhere that had protests?
Testing. Everyone and their dog is getting tested here. Are they doing the same in those cities?
tailgatetimer10
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This is Austin, and I explained my thoughts earlier.
fig96
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tailgatetimer10 said:

This is Austin, and I explained my thoughts earlier.
Yeah, your explanation doesn't hold up especially well for me, sorry.

It's reasonable to say that protests might have had some effect, but the states with cases increasing exponentially are the ones that opened early.
AgSoccer2007
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watched some of the city council meeting. Glad we have a city council member openly calling to have public vehicles with megaphones drive around blasting "wear your mask" at the public. terrific.
fig96
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emando2000 said:

fig96 said:

tailgatetimer10 said:


Is this from one of the cities that is or isn't seeing a significant increase in cases? Because they look the same.

I'm surprised by it too, but if protests did cause a significant increase in cases why aren't we seeing that same increase everywhere that had protests?
Testing. Everyone and their dog is getting tested here. Are they doing the same in those cities?
I have no idea what's happening with testing state by state, but it's a pretty fascinating coincidence if the states that opened early are also the ones doing the most testing and also the ones increasing in cases.
AgSoccer2007
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Why are cases a metric that mean anything? let's just assume, as ridiculous as this is, that there is actual honesty in how "cases" are recorded. Why does case rate matter at all? Wouldn't a case "spike" in the absence of an equally strong death spike, actually be a great thing? Both from the viewpoint of the virus is actually far less deadly than we've been led to believe, AND that herd immunity is the only way out of the weeds? And personally I don't believe we are, or have ever been "in the weeds" with this thing. Keep government officials from forcing nursing homes to take in sick patients and racking up half the death toll, and there really isn't much problem here that should cause a blip on the radar of society as a whole.
emando2000
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fig96 said:

emando2000 said:

fig96 said:

tailgatetimer10 said:


Is this from one of the cities that is or isn't seeing a significant increase in cases? Because they look the same.

I'm surprised by it too, but if protests did cause a significant increase in cases why aren't we seeing that same increase everywhere that had protests?
Testing. Everyone and their dog is getting tested here. Are they doing the same in those cities?
I have no idea what's happening with testing state by state, but it's a pretty fascinating coincidence if the states that opened early are also the ones doing the most testing and also the ones increasing in cases.
Texas was behind in testing. It was a big gripe for the longest. This has changed and we're now testing to catch up and testing everyone...symptoms or no symptoms. Logic tells me that the increased testing increases the numbers. Logic also tells me that people had this virus before we opened up as well.

1,000-10,000 (whatever the number was) protested.
They were shoulder to shoulder.
The weather was in the 90s.
Some wore masks, some simply wore face coverings.
The protests were hours long.
They were breathing the same air.
It was a vocal protest meaning there was chanting....it's not like they breathed silently through their nose.

Logic: 90 degree weather thousands of protesters breathed the same air. They probably had to take their mask down due to sweating (it's logical) or taking a breath of fresh semi-covid air (more logic). When you have that many people in the same area, you're gonna breathe the same air (more logic). Chanting during the protests will release covid of an infected person. The mask isn't gonna keep all the covid in (seems logical, right).


tailgatetimer10
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To be fair, our positive % is higher than the national average. That could be due to many things, however. I do not know their testing strategy.

I tried explaining to fig that it is likely both, the protesting and the open businesses.. go to massive protest, see picture above, then go visit open restaurants, bars and gyms.. to where other states were still completely closed.. and it'll have an impact.

I believe he has his mind made up, but that's ok. Everyone has their own opinion.
fig96
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I'm just not really seeing the connection between businesses being open to the protests.

I absolutely think protests contributed to some spread, just doesn't seem to have been a primary factor or we'd be seeing similar numbers everywhere. To each their own.

Whatever you think...wear a mask.
tailgatetimer10
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I appreciate the honest discussion. It is refreshing these days!
fig96
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Likewise.
Keeper of The Spirits
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I still haven't seen a good reason to close businesses and parks. The cases mean nothing since most are a symptomatic. Our hospitals have plenty of capacity and aren't even considering Dell Children's for overflow. Those at risk have plenty options to isolate.
Old RV Ag
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AgSoccer2007 said:

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/special-austin-city-council-meeting-thursday-could-result-in-more-covid-19-ordinances/

God, I hope I am wrong. Someone please tell me I am crazy.
Dude, the GB hasn't forgotten about you.
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