US employment situation

5,521 Views | 46 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by doubledog
happyinBCS
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Will it ever get back to what it was, on a local level in a college town, the chick fil A dining room can't stay open due to no help, the classic cuts on fitch is only open 4 days due to no help, HEB is very understaffed (and on Labor day my checker said she was making 43.00 per hour including holiday pay)

What is the answer ?
BQ_90
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AG
stop paying people to not work
BrazosWifi
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BQ_90 said:

stop paying people to not work
Thankfully this insanity finally coming to an end.
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bobinator
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Jesus how much is HEB's holiday pay? Maybe I need to quit my job and become a checker at HEB
BQ_90
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BrazosWifi said:

BQ_90 said:

stop paying people to not work
Thankfully this insanity finally coming to an end.
also payments going to families for each kid they have.

we'll see if all that stops or not.
happyinBCS
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It is my understanding they are paying the child tax credit on a monthly basis instead of a lumpsum when the parents file their taxes, in other words they don't get the large amount upon filing their return Am I misunderstanding this ?
bobinator
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I'm not sure if he's talking about the stimulus payments which included dependants or the child tax credit, but I highly doubt the payments for the child tax credit is why anyone is choosing not to work.
motherrunnersBCS
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Also, no one wants to work childcare. It pays the least of any of the service type jobs. And the little ones are not vaccinated, so retired women are unlikely to want to go back to it.
Esteban du Plantier
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happyinBCS said:

It is my understanding they are paying the child tax credit on a monthly basis instead of a lumpsum when the parents file their taxes, in other words they don't get the large amount upon filing their return Am I misunderstanding this ?


They doubled it and are paying you half, i.e. the new half - free money. You'll still get whatever you were going to get with your tax refund.

Just a ploy to print money.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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motherrunnersBCS said:

Also, no one wants to work childcare. It pays the least of any of the service type jobs. And the little ones are not vaccinated, so retired women are unlikely to want to go back to it.


Childcare and Daycares are really having a rough time right now with hiring.

As for the overall employment situation absolutely these freebies need to be cut out.
Stupe
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S
That's a tax rebate that people get whether they are working or not.
MsDoubleD81
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AG
Is there an income limit for the payments?
MiMi
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S
Quote:

Is there an income limit for the payments?
Yes.
Oogway
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happyinBCS said:

Will it ever get back to what it was, on a local level in a college town, the chick fil A dining room can't stay open due to no help, the classic cuts on fitch is only open 4 days due to no help, HEB is very understaffed (and on Labor day my checker said she was making 43.00 per hour including holiday pay)

What is the answer ?
Chick-fil-A may not be the best example--their profits rose by 26% throughout the pandemic so they may not be in a big rush to reopen those dining rooms although I do believe they will. They have a very good track record.
Other restaurants haven't fared as well economically, but the food business always has high turnover and was hit hard not only by the initial closures in 2020 but also by workers either contracting the virus or not wanting to be exposed and thus making a change in employment. It's always been a tough business, but a pandemic definitely put the ouch on it.



But to keep it local--more students are financially secure (or at least their parents are) than in years past. Almost 60% of TAMU students are from the top 20% in family income (median family income at A&M is around $130,900). That may influence the job pool and selection in that those potential workers can afford to be more selective and that also influences which jobs the rest of the residents take. The population has grown, but your answer may lie in which demographics and which socioeconomic statuses are the drivers of that growth.

Also, if you look at FRED, it seems to be slowly righting the ship. The rate in most metro areas from coast to coast spiked in 2020 and has almost, not quite but almost gone back to pre-pandemic levels depending upon the variables unique to certain MSAs. For example, Los Angeles went from 4.5% at the start of the pandemic rapidly rising to 16% and has now fallen to 7.5% and they still have some mask restrictions in place.

It's getting better on a local level, but it may take a little longer since the BCS area already had low numbers as it was...
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Lotsa restaurants came to the conclusion in 2020 that they were better off having drive through or pick up only (no dine in). The trade off in lost business was a plus compared to reduced overhead of operating indoor dining.
jja79
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AG
It's not just college towns.
FlyRod
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People are finding other jobs where the pay is decent, the working conditions are safe (restaurant workers had the highest mortality rate from Covid), and they don't have to deal with abusive entitled customers.

Restaurants that don't understand this, or have no means to address it, are doomed, and we're just seeing the tip of the iceberg at this point.

Better learn to cook.
happyinBCS
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Just to clarify the CFA dining room was open for about 6 weeks so they had adequate staffing but I think several left . The many comments are spot on, I just hope the work ethic is still strong in America among our young people and sometimes I question if it is.
ZachTheGoodAg
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What you saw at CFA locally is happening at others. Several times in the past few weeks the Panda Express at 2818 and Villa Maria has closed its dining room some days, then open others. I asked about it and they confirmed it was closed when they didn't have enough staff to man it, open when they did.

ZTGA
CSAG96
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Perhaps this holds water nationwide. I haven't seen the data. However, in our community, the young high school and college aged workforce has not had excess mortality due to working, that I am aware of.
91_Aggie
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My view is that sit down restaurants where probably on the decline anyways. Later millennials and Gen Z are generations of social anxiety and wanting to be at home. They want to get their food with as little interaction with people as possible and eat at home.
(Yeah, big generalization but quick serve restaurants are getting smaller and small inside, and this Covid thing is proving they can be just as profitable or more without having to have indoor dining and the extra staffing needed for it.)

Look at the new Dutch Bros opening. No indoor at all.
txyaloo
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bobinator said:

Jesus how much is HEB's holiday pay? Maybe I need to quit my job and become a checker at HEB
Usually working holidays is double time and a half. So their normal rate is ~$17/hr
saltsman
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It's easy to blame $300/week emergency payment programs for labor shortages at CFA and other minimum wage jobs and I suspect there is a lot of truth to that on the lower end. However, this is a MUCH larger issue nationwide and at all levels, especially those where $300/week isn't even a blip on the radar.

The pandemic forced everyone to slow down for a moment and gave them time reevaluated their life, career, and priorities. Some remodeled their homes, others remodeled their career. Many of the top paying employers are just as short of labor. Tech workers are flat out balking at returning to the office - period. Everyone is having labor churn....

Reevaluating your career? You're not alone
The Pandemic Revealed How Much We Hate Our Jobs.
Changed by pandemic, many workers won't return to old jobs
Covid-19 Is Causing People To Pivot Careers
Reconsidering Your Life Because of the Pandemic? You're Not Alone.

For many, they made the choice to look for something more rewarding - especially for front-line workers who have taken the brunt of social bickering and infighting among our hyper-polarized nation. For other, they decided to call it a day and took retirement. Some won't risk their life (or one of a family member) for a few extra bucks and are took something less risk, like a work from home position. I think we're clearly in the middle of one of the largest shifts of economic mobility we'll ever see in out lifetimes and there will be a lot more instability for a while longer. Lower end will always be the last to fill.

Also consider that we've taken a hard line on immigration (both legal and illegal) over the past years and that typically supplemented the pool of lower pay workers.
lost my dog
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We live in a capitalist society. If a business can't find workers at the wage they are offering, they should increase their wages to entice workers to offer their labor. It's Econ 101.

If the business can't be profitable while paying the rate demanded by labor, then capitalism says that business is not viable. Sorry.

IMO too many businesses got used to dictating wages to workers, and now they don't like it when workers won't take what they offer. Boy, capitalism sure is tough when Labor can no longer be told what to take by Capital.

Ooogway makes a very good point - you can't really count on college students at A&M being an endless labor pool, because the days of poor farm boys at A&M are largely (but not entirely) past.
Stupe
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That is the attitude of people that want a socialist society.
Your entire post is predicated on the fact that ANY labor should be able to dictate wages and that is not true.

Capitalist societies are driven by people willing to work and who have a desire to improve their labor worth.
"Labor" doesn't dictate wages. Skilled and professional labor dictate wages. People that are good at their jobs create options for themselves when they can go to another company if one doesn't pay enough or have good enough benefits.
The reason that there is a shortage of workers is that the government has made it more financially rewarding to stay at home. Take away that safety net and people will go back to work. The lazy are taking the easy way out and then complaining that they can't make ends meet or don't have insurance.
Take a job, any job, and that situation changes.

It sucks, but people that want to improve their situation do whatever it takes. I've been there and done it at jobs that I hated with a passion. I had bills and responsibilities so I did what I had to in order to take care of it. I've been laid off and then taken a minimum wage job because I needed insurance and a steady pay check.
But, I'm not lazy.

There are people that have been working their entire lives and paying into a system that were laid off due to government over-reaction and shut downs.
People that took a chance and opened a small business. People that put time, effort, and money into learning a skill or a profession.
They deserve unemployment benefits. They are also going out and getting jobs that they are overqualified for. They have a strong worth ethic. Fast food, retail, convivence stores...whatever it takes to support their families until there is an administration that wants the economy rolling and jobs open up. Meanwhile, people that didn't study in high school and don't have the resume' for for skilled labor are taking unemployment because they are "too good" to flip burgers or work retail.

Quote:

IMO too many businesses got used to dictating wages to workers, and now they don't like it when workers won't take what they offer. Boy, capitalism sure is tough when Labor can no longer be told what to take by Capital.
A free-market, capitalist economy is the ONLY economy where people decide that they can control their labor worth. It's the only economy that gives the power of upward mobility to the labor pool. However, it's done by people that are willing to improve themselves. Not by people wanting the government to improve their life for them.
Stop making it easy for the lazy to get paid for doing nothing and that will stop. Drug test people on unemployment. Make them show proof of effort. Start making it more difficult to get unemployment and easier to work in order to get paid.

For the record, I'm not saying that everyone on unemployment is lazy. But we need to make it more difficult for the lazy to remain there.
FlyRod
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Quote:

We live in a capitalist society. If a business can't find workers at the wage they are offering, they should increase their wages to entice workers to offer their labor. It's Econ 101.

If the business can't be profitable while paying the rate demanded by labor, then capitalism says that business is not viable. Sorry.

IMO too many businesses got used to dictating wages to workers, and now they don't like it when workers won't take what they offer. Boy, capitalism sure is tough when Labor can no longer be told what to take by Capital.

Ooogway makes a very good point - you can't really count on college students at A&M being an endless labor pool, because the days of poor farm boys at A&M are largely (but not entirely) past.

Nailed it.

Also, as this piece points out, folks are not lying around lazily collecting unemployment. They are simply taking better jobs.

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/20/1016081936/low-pay-no-benefits-rude-customers-restaurant-workers-quit-at-record-rate
Stupe
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In other words doing what it takes to move upward.
Stupe
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Accidental reply.
Stupe
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Quote:

If the business can't be profitable while paying the rate demanded by labor, then capitalism says that business is not viable. Sorry.
That part of your post is semi accurate. A business should be paying competitive wages to comparable businesses or it will fail.
lost my dog
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Stupe said:

Quote:

If the business can't be profitable while paying the rate demanded by labor, then capitalism says that business is not viable. Sorry.
That part of your post is semi accurate. A business should be paying competitive wages to comparable businesses or it will fail.
Your comment is not true if there are other businesses in a different field willing to hire those workers away. (There is a substitution effect in the labor market.)

Let me provide a concrete example. Let's say there are a number of house builders who hire (relatively) unskilled laborers. Each of them competes for workers in this labor pool. None of them pays more than they can afford (based on how much they can sell the houses for). None of them fail.

A commercial developer moves into town. He is building a number of large commercial high rises. Commercial real estate sells for more than residential real estate, and so the developer has more money than the house builders. He also needs more labor, so he is willing to hire the laborers at a higher wage than they get from the house builders. This higher wage is also higher than the house builders can afford and still stay profitable. The house builders cannot stay in business.

If you say residential and commercial construction should be considered comparable businesses, I would reply I'm just trying to provide an easy example of labor movement, inspired by what actually happened around here during the rebuilding of Kyle Field. (No, no house builders went out of business, but they lost workers.) The point is that while the substitution effect is not perfect in labor markets, we do seem to be seeing more of that now, and people are finding jobs they prefer to working at CFA.

(Let's not even get into working mothers who can't go back to work because they don't have enough child care, but I digress...)

While I appreciate your other reply to me, you're wrapping your arguments in a moral judgement of people, and I'd rather not get into that discussion.
Stupe
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Quote:

The point is that while the substitution effect is not perfect in labor markets, we do seem to be seeing more of that now, and people are finding jobs they prefer to working at CFA.
I addressed that when I said that people who were willing to work were able to improve their labor worth. Those people that you used as an example found some place that was willing to pay more. They still had to work hard in order to keep those jobs.

Quote:

While I appreciate your other reply to me, you're wrapping your arguments in a moral judgement of people, and I'd rather not get into that discussion.
Saying that there are people that are lazy and have a terrible work ethic is the truth. You can call it "moral judgement" or any other feel good catch phrase that you desire. That doesn't make it untrue.
If more people would say that and hold them accountable, we wouldn't have a bunch of people on welfare and unemployment that are able bodied but too lazy to work.

The bottom line is that it needs to be difficult for able bodied people to stay on government hand out programs.
mic suede
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When you can't respond to facts with facts, appeal to fear and emotion.
TXTEA12
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Let's not forget, along with the abundance of federal stimulus money floating the economy, we just came off a long eviction moratorium for renters. I'm not sure if that affects a labor market for lower wage jobs and the amount of openings in the labor market but I don't think it should be easily dismissed. I do think Stupe is correct in that a willing laborer would find any of the options out there enticing with the many advertising starting pay/bonus sign ons/competition, an ability to appropriately market themselves for what they think they're worth and bring to a company.
lost my dog
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So I don't think the call for facts was addressed to me. But I'm going to offer some, focusing on Texas.

1) Additional pandemic unemployment assistance from the Feds ended in Texas on June 26, 2021. https://www.twc.texas.gov/pandemic-unemployment-assistance We have had more than two months for the labor situation to adjust to this. Right now the funds that people get in unemployment and welfare (of various types) is the same as it was before the pandemic hit.

2) All these numbers are from https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet . Comparing August 2021 numbers (preliminary, but the latest we have) to February 2020 numbers (just before the shutdown), we can see that a) the total labor force is about the same, b) about 316,000 more people are unemployed.

There is constant churn in the ranks of the unemployed, so what I'm about to say can't be true for all of them. But assuming anyone who wants any job can find one, if we take the polar-opposite interpretations of these numbers:

  • 316,000 people are more lazy now than they were in February 2020, given the fact that the monetary benefits from sitting at home haven't changed,
  • 316,000 people have decided that they don't want to do certain jobs at the current market wages
The truth is certainly somewhere in the middle. But without more information, it is a strong, unsupported assumption to say that the inability for some fast food restaurants and supermarkets to fill positions is due to government handouts, given the fact that they were able to fill them prior to the pandemic shutdown.

Given the fact that government benefits now are the same as before the shutdown, why do you think more able-bodied people are lazy?

I will certainly grant you there are some people who are able bodied but are unwilling to work. Please provide numbers. Don't ask me to do so. I'm not the one presenting them as evidence. What percentage are they relative to the total workforce and unemployed?

If it is small, then why stress about them? There are a lot free riders of all sorts in our country. Unless it's really a moral issue for you, in which case we can agree to disagree.

Edit: before I am accused of ignoring the increase in the Child Tax Credit, 1) that's not traditional welfare (it's available to the employed as well as the unemployed), 2) an additional $1,600 or $1,000 per year per child (depends on age) is not what I would call a game-changer when deciding whether to work on not
EliteElectric
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IDK if it is a complete explanation for what's going on, but as an employer for the past 11+ years, and, as a person who has managed a large number of folks since 1994 let me offer this little insight from my perspective-

I have never experienced the lack of ambition we are now seeing. Complete and total lack of ambition. The people we are keeping long term are the ambitious prototypical "go getter" type of employees. A great deal of people now seem content to make moves down the ladder. Complete willingness to take less money and benefits in exchange for less responsibility. I don't know the psychology of it all, IDK if people are just giving up or if the media's constant "crisis" peddling is overwhelming folks but whatever it is it is palpable. I have had many discussion with other owners and community leaders and we are all experiencing it. Again- I don't claim to have any answers only observations, and in my opinion, based on those observations, we have gone from a nation of overcomers to a nation void of any and all ambition seemingly overnight.
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