A few things. First, many of the vaccinated previously had covid, so you might ave a bit of double counting in the 43%. Second, about 19% of the population is under 16 and there is no vaccine approved for them. Third, about 35% are age 16-24, and most won't get and very likely don't need the vaccine. Fourth, many adults over 24 just aren't going to get it, as high as 1/3 by some polls.benchmark said:
As of yesterday, Brazos County (pop 219,193) reported 21,730 total cases (9.9%) and 72,238 vaccinations (33% with at least 1 shot). That's 43% of the population. Doing the math at (say) 1,000 shots/day, Brazos Co would achieve 75% in late May .... and almost 90% by late June. I assume the rest of Texas shows a similar trajectory.
Has anyone seen similar projections?
Good question. And by age ... what % of adults ... and what % below age 18? The under 18 age group is about 20% of the population.jja79 said:
What percentage total do you expect? A significant percentage of the population doesn't experiment with drugs.
True ... and also the question of how many cases were undetected or unreported.isitjustme said:
A few things. First, many of the vaccinated previously had covid, so you might ave a bit of double counting in the 43%. Second, about 19% of the population is under 16 and there is no vaccine approved for them. Third, about 35% are age 18-24, and most won't get and very likely don't need the vaccine. Fourth, many adults over 24 just aren't going to get it, as high as 1/3 by some polls.
So I think your projections are a bit optimistic and I think maybe 1/2 at most will take the vaccine. And we will still have herd immunity.
Spot on.isitjustme said:A few things. First, many of the vaccinated previously had covid, so you might ave a bit of double counting in the 43%. Second, about 19% of the population is under 16 and there is no vaccine approved for them. Third, about 35% are age 16-24, and most won't get and very likely don't need the vaccine. Fourth, many adults over 24 just aren't going to get it, as high as 1/3 by some polls.benchmark said:
As of yesterday, Brazos County (pop 219,193) reported 21,730 total cases (9.9%) and 72,238 vaccinations (33% with at least 1 shot). That's 43% of the population. Doing the math at (say) 1,000 shots/day, Brazos Co would achieve 75% in late May .... and almost 90% by late June. I assume the rest of Texas shows a similar trajectory.
Has anyone seen similar projections?
So I think your projections are a bit optimistic and I think maybe 1/2 at most will take the vaccine. And we will still have herd immunity.
