Local Economy tanking badly!

8,138 Views | 51 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by LOYAL AG
Omega6464
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9:22a, 7/1/20
According to economists at Texas A&M:

September-February tax collections were up 5.5% over FY 2019;

March overall tax collections dropped 3.7% over March of 2019;

April collections dropped 19.8% over April 2019;

May collections were down 25.8% over the same month last year.

May by the numbers:

- Sales tax collections were down 13.2%
- Motor vehicle sales taxes were down 38.2%
- Fuel tax collections down 29.9%
- Franchise tax collections down 81.2%
- Oil production taxes down 75.4%
- Natural gas production taxes down 76.0%
- Hotel occupancy taxes down 86.4%
- Alcoholic beverage taxes down 76.3%
- Tobacco taxes down 14.4%

Brazos County's unemployment rate hovers just above 9%, the second best MSA in the state. It's almost 20% in the Valley.

Brace your self for cutbacks and layoffs at the state and local levels. You won't have to worry about "Defund the Police." The economy may very well force many localities to lay them off.
"He who attempts to govern, ploughs the sea" -Simon Bolivar
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isitjustme
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In reply to Omega6464 • 9:30a, 7/1/20
AG
Get rid of 20% of your consumers (50,000 students), nearly all of your visitors, intentionally close a wide variety of establishments and business operations, and scare the pants off of as many people as you can and yes, the economy will tank.

Try to make a comeback (June) and things don't go exactly as hoped for but clearly not beyond expectations, close some things down again and institute more rules, and the economy will continue to tank.
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91_Aggie
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9:55a, 7/1/20
AG
No worries. the city and county will just need to raise taxes to make up for the shortfall in their budgets.
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Rapier108
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10:04a, 7/1/20
What's sad is how many people think this didn't go far enough.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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b0ridi
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10:21a, 7/1/20
Saw several cops on Texas Ave this morning with radar guns. Gotta get revenue up!
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Omega6464
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In reply to isitjustme • 10:27a, 7/1/20
agrab86 said:
Get rid of 20% of your consumers (50,000 students), nearly all of your visitors, intentionally close a wide variety of establishments and business operations, and scare the pants off of as many people as you can and yes, the economy will tank.

Try to make a comeback (June) and things don't go exactly as hoped for but clearly not beyond expectations, close some things down again and institute more rules, and the economy will continue to tank.
Exactly. The cure is looking to be far more bitter than the disease.
"He who attempts to govern, ploughs the sea" -Simon Bolivar
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tb9665
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10:28a, 7/1/20
You know it is bad when you get an email from Howdy's Pizza saying they are reducing their hours. Closing on Mondays and Tuesdays.
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FlyRod
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10:28a, 7/1/20
Alcoholic beverage taxes are DOWN? With the amount of drinking going on during this?
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MiMi
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In reply to FlyRod • 10:31a, 7/1/20
S
Quote:
Alcoholic beverage taxes are DOWN? With the amount of drinking going on during this?
I thought the same thing. But maybe this takes into account reduced alcohol sales at restaurants and bars?
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FlyRod
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10:46a, 7/1/20
Maybe? I've been doing my part by buying wine to go from our local restaurants at not-cheap prices, but I doubt that's helping much sadly.
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b0ridi
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In reply to FlyRod • 10:50a, 7/1/20
FlyRod said:
Alcoholic beverage taxes are DOWN? With the amount of drinking going on during this?
16 oz beer at a restaurant is $5. Same beer at HEB is $1.50. I'd bet the number of units sold has not fallen 76%, just the tax revenue.
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legalbird
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11:17a, 7/1/20
Don't know the ins and out of traffic fines, but supposedly fines don't help a budget.

Make a new renter's tax to make up the difference.

Also remove red lights and make everything a 4 way stop. I sit at many intersections where nobody moves
because of long red lights. That will save some money.

Another idea, remove all city street lights or turn them off. That will save money.

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cavscout96
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11:39a, 7/1/20
AG
defund city hall?

cease movement on any contracts not already awarded?
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UmustBKidding
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In reply to cavscout96 • 11:48a, 7/1/20
I for sure would not be building a new 39.5M$ one right now.
But everyone knows the root of all these issues is insufficient trees being planted and trash on hwy 60W, at least in College Station.
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Koldus131
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11:54a, 7/1/20
AG
Just wait how bad it's going to be in the fall when there's no fans at games
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redd38
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11:58a, 7/1/20
AG
And wait till half the students don't show back up in the fall
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BCSWguru
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12:29p, 7/1/20
not quite sure how any of you are upset. this is the stuff you've been voting for.
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Drilltime
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12:29p, 7/1/20
Good data from Omega. Some percentages may be more important than others. Here's a breakdown of the dollars associated with some of these in 2019.

Charges for services $ 21.3M
Operating Contributions 3.1
Capitol Contributions 8.6
Property 47.0
Sales 30.0
Franchise 2.8
Mixed Drink 0.8
Interest,Investment Income 4.1
Hotel 5.7 (can only be used to promote hotels)
Total $ 123.3M (1)

Of these, sales tax is the one that matters right now and we absolutely have to 1) get the students back and 2) have fans in the stands. To do either, we have to get on top of Covid (again). WE have about the highest infection rate in the state and the students aren't even here.

The numbers need to drop dramatically and within the next 2-3 weeks. People are having to make decisions in advance, and right now some of the plans we thought were in place are starting to be reshaped by some very bad data.

Nobody wants to be told what to do. But financially, the Bryan and College Station mayors had no choice but to try and turn this around (again). The rental, restaurant, and retail owners should probably be on the street corners handing out masks. JImbo should probably be paying for them.


(1) Pg 9 of the CAFR at file:///F:/Carlos%20Nunez%20Perez/Download%20CAFR%202019.pdf.
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LOYAL AG
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12:41p, 7/1/20
AG
I think alcohol is taxed different ways based on how it's being sold. When purchased in a restaurant/bar setting alcohol comes with the typical sales tax of 8.25% that the customer pays but it also comes with a mixed beverage tax of 6.75% that the business owner pays. I don't think that is true for alcohol sold in a retail setting such as at HEB. I THINK that's only subject to the 8.25% retail sales tax. If that's correct then the 76% drop in alcohol is really a drop in the Mixed Beverage tax due to so many places being closed.
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cavscout96
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In reply to Drilltime • 1:00p, 7/1/20
AG
Drilltime said:
Good data from Omega. Some percentages may be more important than others. Here's a breakdown of the dollars associated with some of these in 2019.

Charges for services $ 21.3M
Operating Contributions 3.1
Capitol Contributions 8.6
Property 47.0
Sales 30.0
Franchise 2.8
Mixed Drink 0.8
Interest,Investment Income 4.1
Hotel 5.7 (can only be used to promote hotels)
Total $ 123.3M (1)

Of these, sales tax is the one that matters right now and we absolutely have to 1) get the students back and 2) have fans in the stands. To do either, we have to get on top of Covid (again). WE have about the highest infection rate in the state and the students aren't even here.

The numbers need to drop dramatically and within the next 2-3 weeks. People are having to make decisions in advance, and right now some of the plans we thought were in place are starting to be reshaped by some very bad data.

Nobody wants to be told what to do. But financially, the Bryan and College Station mayors had no choice but to try and turn this around (again). The rental, restaurant, and retail owners should probably be on the street corners handing out masks. JImbo should probably be paying for them.


(1) Pg 9 of the CAFR at file:///F:/Carlos%20Nunez%20Perez/Download%20CAFR%202019.pdf.
So we can do this again in September? and November?

Have we noted that most of the recent spike was in young, healthy folks? Have we considered that young, healthy folks recovering are a significant contributor to (eventually) developing a community-wide immunity?
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Mister Mystery Guest
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1:07p, 7/1/20
Defund the Sociology Dept.
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AggieYankee1
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1:44p, 7/1/20
Time to look for leaders and not just "someone you know"

The electorate will have to try and listen to what people have to say and specific plans they have rather than the same or' same Ol' name game.
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Sweet Kitten Feet
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In reply to FlyRod • 1:58p, 7/1/20
S
FlyRod said:
Alcoholic beverage taxes are DOWN? With the amount of drinking going on during this?
Yeah, with no students in town alcohol sales are going to drop. No surprise.
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Ukraine Gas Expert
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2:05p, 7/1/20
AG
There should be a retroactive aspect to city leadership's pay. They are tanking people's lives while not feeling the impact.

Taxes cover their salaries. If taxes going down from revenue then they should feel it too. No different than government wastes who order this crap while eating ice cream in their luxury kitchen
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Carny89
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2:06p, 7/1/20
Of course tax collections are down. You couldn't go pay them. It's hell to transfer titles.
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woodiewood1
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2:24p, 7/1/20
All state, county, city and any other governmental organization should immediately begin cutting expenses and get down to 8 to 10% reduction beginning tomorrow. Over the next 12 months, No roadway overlays that aren't essential, no travel out of the county, no park improvements, no pay raises, no non-needed promotions, no up grade purchases of computers, printers, vehicles and other equipment., .

That, and much more, is what many homeowners local businesses are having to do.
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Drilltime
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3:03p, 7/1/20
All good points. But the reality is, if the infection rate continues to grow exponentially the University will give students the option to take online classes (many already have it). And the Governor will not allow fans in the stands. These will not be city decisions. What the cities can do is to try to avoid those outcomes by turning the numbers around in the next few weeks. Maybe.
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oklaunion
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3:08p, 7/1/20
But what about the CSISD pay raises that were mentioned last week?
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txyaloo
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In reply to legalbird • 3:16p, 7/1/20
AG
legalbird said:
Don't know the ins and out of traffic fines, but supposedly fines don't help a budget.



They don't, and the people that make those statements just show their ignorance.

The city's books are public. Anyone that cares can go look at the revenue and costs. Traffic fines are actually a net loss. 85-90% of a traffic fine goes directly to the state's general fund. The rest is kept by the municipalities. The cost of the officers and courts isn't covered by that 10-15% of "revenue" the city gets to keep.
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isitjustme
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In reply to Drilltime • 3:27p, 7/1/20
AG
Drilltime said:
All good points. But the reality is, if the infection rate continues to grow exponentially the University will give students the option to take online classes (many already have it). And the Governor will not allow fans in the stands. These will not be city decisions. What the cities can do is to try to avoid those outcomes by turning the numbers around in the next few weeks. Maybe.
BCS can't do anything about what the University does or the Governor mandates. It can, however, immediately lessen the blow by geting out of the way of local businesses and recruiting events. That includes:

Removal of face covering mandates (keeps more people out of businesses than otherwise)
Blanket approval of gatherings of more than (governor gives that permission, so use it)
Recruit more events to town that don't rely on the university or what the governor has said (last weekend's 7v7 and softball events are good examples - cancelling Texas Reds is not a good example)

All of these will generate more sales and sales tax revenues from the 190,000 people who are still in Brazos county as well as attracting more folks from outside of the county to spend money. This can be done with distancing to lower the chance of covid spread. And if you want to wear a face covering for more protection, then wear one.
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redd38
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3:47p, 7/1/20
AG
Fully online classes is already an option for students.
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lost my dog
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In reply to isitjustme • 4:37p, 7/1/20
agrab86 said:

BCS can't do anything about what the University does or the Governor mandates. It can, however, immediately lessen the blow by geting out of the way of local businesses and recruiting events. That includes:

Removal of face covering mandates (keeps more people out of businesses than otherwise)
Blanket approval of gatherings of more than (governor gives that permission, so use it)
Recruit more events to town that don't rely on the university or what the governor has said (last weekend's 7v7 and softball events are good examples - cancelling Texas Reds is not a good example)
Do you have any hard numbers which back up your assertion that the face mask requirement is keeping people out of businesses?

Texas Reds was cancelled by the Downtown Bryan Association. The event would have been in late September, so saying it was cancelled in respond to the current mask rules is a bit of a stretch in my mind. What should the mayors have done to encourage the DBA not to cancel?
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Drilltime
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4:49p, 7/1/20
It may be useful to look at the link if you haven't been following the enormous increase in cases in June. Can you imagine what this will look like by August if we do nothing? I can't see the university or governor approving in-person classes or fans in Kyle Field if this is not turned around. We are a Texas Covid hot spot

https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
[url=https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVIDExternalQC/COVIDTrends?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y][/url]
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FlyRod
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5:21p, 7/1/20
And we CAN turn it around. Other places have. We are not fighting the Harvesters from Independence Day!
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woodiewood1
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In reply to txyaloo • 5:45p, 7/1/20
txyaloo said:
legalbird said:
Don't know the ins and out of traffic fines, but supposedly fines don't help a budget.



They don't, and the people that make those statements just show their ignorance.

The city's books are public. Anyone that cares can go look at the revenue and costs. Traffic fines are actually a net loss. 85-90% of a traffic fine goes directly to the state's general fund. The rest is kept by the municipalities. The cost of the officers and courts isn't covered by that 10-15% of "revenue" the city gets to keep.
Are they really at a loss? Do you not need courts and police for other needs other than traffic. What is the marginal increase in costs based on traffic activities versus the revenues generated?
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