B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

685,855 Views | 4785 Replies | Last: 40 min ago by FlyRod
australopithecus robustus
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ToxicAG said:

toolshed said:

nought said:

scd88 said:


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just keep looking for a downward trend and I'm not feeling it right now. The ICU percentage is a little worrisome, too.


Remember hospitals often have 80 to 90 percent ICU capacity utilized.

In terms of a downward trend, look at my posts above with the Texas and local cumulative daily periodic rates. Every day with a star is evidence of a downward trend.


And that "capacity" doesn't include measures they can put in place to create more bed space. So 100% isn't "full" necessarily.


Bed space isn't the issue it is staffing and specialized training. ICU beds require at least 1 nurse and supporting staff whereas normal med/surgical beds are 1:5-10.


The hospitals have had 6 months to prepare and staff up.
b0ridi
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australopithecus robustus said:

ToxicAG said:

toolshed said:

nought said:

scd88 said:


Fair enough. I wasn't trying to stir the pot. Just keep looking for a downward trend and I'm not feeling it right now. The ICU percentage is a little worrisome, too.


Remember hospitals often have 80 to 90 percent ICU capacity utilized.

In terms of a downward trend, look at my posts above with the Texas and local cumulative daily periodic rates. Every day with a star is evidence of a downward trend.


And that "capacity" doesn't include measures they can put in place to create more bed space. So 100% isn't "full" necessarily.


Bed space isn't the issue it is staffing and specialized training. ICU beds require at least 1 nurse and supporting staff whereas normal med/surgical beds are 1:5-10.


The hospitals have had 6 months to prepare and staff up.
They need two more weeks.
Rapier108
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60 New Cases
195 New Tests
0 New Deaths
Hospital cases dropped as did total occupancy

77801 +7
77802 +5
77803 +22
77807 +3
77808 +3
77840 +10
77845 +10

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.11.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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AG
7 discharges

26 Brazos county patients, 58 total

Total Bed Occupancy: 71%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 75%

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 525
Available Hospital Beds - 166
Available ICU Beds - 12
Available Ventilators - 36
trouble
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AG
Also, we have between 50-55 vents in Brazos County. I couldn't find it documented anywhere so I had to call some friends.
toolshed
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AG
With the news that vents are only helpful in the most critica patients, and may actually cause more damage than good, do you have an opinion on the vent numbers, as far as critical need?
trouble
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AG
I think we are good on number of vents. With nearly any pulmonary condition, you really don't want to have to intubate and ventilate patients.

This part is my opinion, I think the rush to put people on vents contributed to the high number of deaths in NYC.
Fitch
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AG
That's generally accepted at this point. Several docs who have posted on the COVID forum (inc. one who's worked COVID wards in NOLA and NYC) have acknowledged they'll do everything possible to avoid putting a patient on a vent. One school of thought is it is more of a disease of the blood than the respiratory system.
1.618
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I want my doc to have enough vents (and staff capacity) so that it is his/her call whether to vent me and not a matter of whether there is or is not a vent available driving that decision. At this point, we do have enough capacity. I'd like to keep it that way.
Belton Ag
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AG
Fitch said:

That's generally accepted at this point. Several docs who have posted on the COVID forum (inc. one who's worked COVID wards in NOLA and NYC) have acknowledged they'll do everything possible to avoid putting a patient on a vent. One school of thought is it is more of a disease of the blood than the respiratory system.
Interestingly, early on into the pandemic, over on the COVID board a rookie (not an Ag and not associated with Texas, I assume he found the forum through nawlins ag's famous post) started a thread recommending against venting patients. He cited some studies he did - he was some kind of medical research student - and was immediately poo-pooed by the docs on the forum. Turned out he was right.
nought
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K2T2 said:

I feel like relying non the cumulative rate is folly, or misleading at least. Jumping 5000 cases in a day has a smaller cumulative rate! Hurrah! But that's because the total number is so ****ing high, it's easy to have a small rate. Its like the dad joke where the dad says hur hur, child, you're aging at a faster rate than me, your old man! Yeah, 1 year is a larger percent of someone's life the younger they are, but the older person is in fact declining more quickly.

You realize the cumulative rate is actually higher than the spot rate, right? Take today over yesterday.

You have a point about old people and age. Yes, 5,000 cases a day (or 10,000) is a lot. But the only way to judge the progress we are making, the "flattening of the curve" as the health officials like to say, is to look at rates of increase -- whether cumulative or spot.

I like looking at hospitalization rates -- not looking bad at all locally; right at roughly normal capacity, and the number of Brazos County COVID-19 hospitalizations is increasing at a slower rate than the overall number of positive cases. Who cares if Texas gets a million cases if we end up with less hospitalizations and deaths than other places (like NY)? Look at our death rate per 1,000,000 residents compared to that of NY and tell me that we are in trouble or need to shut things down again.
Rapier108
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45 New Cases
0 New Death
0 New Tests (Yeah, right. This stat is so FUBAR it should be removed)
Additional drop in hospitalizations and total bed, but ICU up. (Remember, plenty of other things can result in people being in ICU, and they get counted as part of the total numbers of ICU patients. It is not 78% of ICU beds filled with virus patients.)

Increase in recovered cases.

77801 +4
77802 +4
77803 +11
77807 +6
77808 +4
77840 +5
77845 +11

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.12.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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AG
6 discharges

102 additional recovered

23 Brazos county patients, 58 total

Total Bed Occupancy: 68%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 78%

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 506
Available Hospital Beds - 154
Available ICU Beds - 14
Available Ventilators - 39
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated.

[url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q][/url]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
cavscout96
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AG
2/3 of cases under age 40

Bunk Moreland
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The 4 90 year+ cases concern me. Another mini outbreak at a nursing home?
scd88
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AG
cavscout96 said:

2/3 of cases under age 40




And almost half in the Hispanic community.
Rapier108
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Bunk Moreland said:

The 4 90 year+ cases concern me. Another mini outbreak at a nursing home?
It's very possible. No matter how hard they try, the virus can still get in. There was one in the DFW area recently where it got in and spread like wildfire. Not sure how many people have died from it so far, but they had to evacuate dozens of residents to the hospital.

If we start seeing a lot more cases in the 70+ range, then a nursing home is a good guess.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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AG
Bunk Moreland said:

The 4 90 year+ cases concern me. Another mini outbreak at a nursing home?


Saw that. That number had held, essentially, steady for weeks.
new straw
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If there are young people on here, please be safe. The inpatient numbers are rising and it feels like hell. (From the horses mouth.)
Rapier108
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They've rearranged the bottom of the PDF's first page so at first glance, it looked like there were 23,997 new cases.

60 New Cases
530 New Tests
0 Deaths
Total Brazos County hospital cases did not change. Total bed and ICU % dropped.

77801 +4
77802 +5
77803 +16
77807 +6
77808 +4
77840 +6
77845 +19

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.13.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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AG
3 discharged

121 recovered

23 Brazos County patients, 58 total

Total Bed Occupancy: 64%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 73%

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 509
Available Hospital Beds - 172
Available ICU Beds - 11
Available Ventilators - 40
cavscout96
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AG
trouble said:

6 discharges

102 additional recovered

23 Brazos county patients, 58 total

Total Bed Occupancy: 68%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 78%

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 506
Available Hospital Beds - 154
Available ICU Beds - 14
Available Ventilators - 39
how is it that we have 3 fewer ICU beds avail., but a lower occupancy rate?

isitjustme
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AG
cavscout96 said:

trouble said:

6 discharges

102 additional recovered

23 Brazos county patients, 58 total

Total Bed Occupancy: 68%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 78%

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 506
Available Hospital Beds - 154
Available ICU Beds - 14
Available Ventilators - 39
how is it that we have 3 fewer ICU beds avail., but a lower occupancy rate?


Covid is not the only thing that puts one in the hospital or icu.
cavscout96
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AG
but this doesn't say its all covid or not covid. It says beds avail and % occupied.

we have fewer beds avail, but a lower occupancy rate?
trouble
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AG
It may have to do with acuity of patients and staff available but I'm really not certain.
trouble
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AG
I'll see if I can find out if it's physical ICU beds or staffed beds that are counted.
Rapier108
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Perhaps once a virus patient leaves, the room is considered unavailable until it is completely cleaned. That might mean it is out of service for a day or two.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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AG
trouble said:

I'll see if I can find out if it's physical ICU beds or staffed beds that are counted.
ok, that would make sense. i'm just trying to follow the red, bouncing ball.
cavscout96
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AG
Rapier108 said:

Perhaps once a virus patient leaves, the room is considered unavailable until it is completely cleaned. That might mean it is out of service for a day or two.
see above. that could make sense too..
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated.

Getting only 1 decimal point doesn't help with accurate numbers when the numbers get bigger, so that's how you can have a negative person in the 90's...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
trouble
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AG
The number of available beds is from Texas HHS and it's beds staffed and ready to be admitted to.

The percentage comes from the health department so who knows what they are using.
cavscout96
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AG
So, two sources could also mean a reporting lag?

Rapier108
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Bunk Moreland said:

The 4 90 year+ cases concern me. Another mini outbreak at a nursing home?
I think I know where at least some, if not all of those may have come from. It would also explain the resurgence in a certain zip code which had been slowing dropping, and at least a few of the recent deaths. I need to talk to someone who can verify it. If what I have been told is accurate, it is not a nursing home; although that doesn't mean there couldn't also be a nursing home with an outbreak.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
trouble
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AG
No, both are getting their info from the hospitals directly. I just have no idea how the health department is calculating their percentage.
 
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