B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

826,977 Views | 5633 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by Nosmo
Fitch
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Little easier way to see the testing positivity data.

benchmark
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EBrazosAg said:

Positive test/ total test numbers could be off by factors of 1.5-3 or 4 from what I hear about testing numbers around the area. IMHO ... they just need to report numbers and not have the presser. They are loosing credibility as those who are in a place to know realize the absurdity of some of the numbers.
Which begs the question - are the tests not being reported? ... or is the data being misreported?

Test data aside, IMO the most important unanswered (and unasked) question for local health officials ... are they performing thorough contact tracing investigations to timely identify infection sources? Is this effort sufficiently funded and staffed? What are the results? Crickets.
EBrazosAg
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Contact tracing not happening to a significant degree at this point. They are overwhelmed, and to be fair when spread is community and not cluster it doesn't really work and isn't practical. We are definitely in community spread mode.
Is Not a Turtle
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Quick anecdote for you.

My office is literally in between two doctor's offices both of which are offering testing. If foot traffic is any indicator, we will continue to see a spike in numbers for at least a week or two.

Maybe not surprisingly, most of the people I see waiting are college aged. I think this is going to get worse from a number of positive cases perspective as we see more students moving back to town in anticipation of the upcoming school year.

Related but not virus related: I believe we are going to see cases throughout the rest of the year generally rise and then spike in Sept/Oct as the students come back and, unfortunately, protest on and off campus.

This is going to be a long year.
dubi
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Dr Frank updated Texas 2 days ago.

  • He is reporting based on deaths. None of the BS of number of tests/number of cases that is used to scare folks like our local news and Dr Sullivan. Young and healthy people with Covid are NOT newsworthy.
  • He is also calling it an "localized epidemic" now based on infections. The "pandemic" is over.
  • He wants Texas to report based on "date of death" and not date it was reported which could be a week or 2 later.


Quote:

Link
The ten worst counties by total number of deaths. These data are smoothed in a nine day running a
average.




Quote:



Link
Here is the REST of Texas... (the other 244 counties)
I slapped a bell on it.... not too rigorously; just because it looked Gaussian.
Yeah, the wild infection in Texas is done. It just has several hot spots to clean up. Texas is a big place!
I don't mind it so much that these data are by reported date instead of date of death, since the epidemic is essentially over.


But for the top ten counties... deaths by date of death would be very helpful for appraising the situation. Too bad the state doesn't provide this info.
benchmark
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EBrazosAg said:

Contact tracing not happening to a significant degree at this point. They are overwhelmed, and to be fair when spread is community and not cluster it doesn't really work and isn't practical. We are definitely in community spread mode.
Well, Lubbock seems to be up to the challenge ... similar population and case count. Their investigations take a few days to report each case by infection source .... 'Exposure' (known infection source) or 'Community' (unknown infection source). Very important information if the goal is to control the spread.

Link: Lubbock Case Investigation Report
Esteban du Plantier
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panduh bear said:



Maybe not surprisingly, most of the people I see waiting are college aged. I think this is going to get worse from a number of positive cases perspective as we see more students moving back to town in anticipation of the upcoming school year.



This group of people is largely unaffected. Why does it really matter if every 20 year old in town gets the virus if effectively none of them get sick and stress the hospital system?

Without a vaccine, everyone's going to eventually get it. The goal is to keep hospitals in good shape. College age kids don't really threaten that.
dubi
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Quote:

This group of people is largely unaffected. Why does it really matter if every 20 year old in town gets the virus if effectively none of them get sick and stress the hospital system?

Without a vaccine, everyone's going to eventually get it. The goal is to keep hospitals in good shape. College age kids don't really threaten that.

BINGO!

Why are people so worried about the "number of cases"? It is a BS scare tactic.

We want large quantities of young and healthy people to have COVID.
Bunk Moreland
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Does the county have numbers on median age of those who have tested positive? Surely it's dropping like a rock.

As long as we don't start seeing deaths spike in younger people or less vulnerable communities/situations and we can handle any hospital bed capacity needed, then I see the increase in cases as a net positive. Gets us further down the road. We are not going to just be able to avoid this and there's no way we can hold off until a vaccine is available.

This was the natural next step after re-opening. Let's get comfortable with it, continue to be careful and clean, and protect the most vulnerable.
Is Not a Turtle
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We agree on all of these points.

I would only add that the perpetual fear driven by the local media, through social media, will begin to spin this as "younger people are more effected by the virus than we thought" which will serve to create an environment in which we see shutdowns coming again.

God willing this won't happen but when the first 18-35 year old passes away in town you can almost wager your life savings on a delayed/distant school year for the local schools as well as another lockdown from the city and county.

You're exactly right that we need to have the virus transmitted through the populace but that will not stop the spin.

"If it bleeds, it leads" is the mantra of a journalist.
EBrazosAg
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The important data now is positive test, number of sick, number in hospital, number on ventilators, and number deceased. Everything else is just interesting or for articles. The asymptomatic rate in each community varies, and we have no clue what it is here. Unless we screen a representative portion of the population we won't know. That would be useful - perhaps - in modeling the near to intermediate future. But all in all, it's about hospital beds and deaths when it comes to immediate, actionable data.
FlyRod
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Many young people are showing up with long-term debilitating symptoms.

You can't keep increasing numbers of infected young people from infecting older people...not 85 year olds in nursing homes, but those over 50 who are a large part of the work forceparents, teachers, store employees, etc. those people have poorer outcomes and are the ones likely to overwhelm the health care system, not the 20 somethings.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/BEDF86A6-AF3E-11EA-BAAD-B30512BF9A3F

In addition to the sociopathic ghoulishness of hoping young people get infected, you've got the bizarre fantasy that somehow they are not going to go on to infect older and more vulnerable people. The disconnect from reality is amazing.
dubi
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EBrazosAg said:

The important data now is positive test, number of sick, number in hospital, number on ventilators, and number deceased. Everything else is just interesting or for articles. The asymptomatic rate in each community varies, and we have no clue what it is here. Unless we screen a representative portion of the population we won't know. That would be useful - perhaps - in modeling the near to intermediate future. But all in all, it's about hospital beds and deaths when it comes to immediate, actionable data.

FIFY

A positive test on someone asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms does not matter IMO. This will rise dramatically day by day since our community is mostly re-opened. It will spread and that is OK unless you are KBTX or Dr Sullivan.

What is important is keeping our vulnerable residents / elderly safe at home or in a care facility!
Ribbed Paultz
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Well said!
Esteban du Plantier
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"In addition to the sociopathic ghoulishness of hoping young people get infected, you've got the bizarre fantasy that somehow they are not going to go on to infect older and more vulnerable people. The disconnect from reality is amazing."

Nice strawman.

Nobody wants these things to happen. But it's not a question of IF, it's a question of 'over how long with this take place?'

We could either deal with it in a short period of time minimizing the amount of economic damage. Or we could slow the spread so our economy is shut down for years. Ultimately, I'm not sure the number of covid deaths will change, but suicides and businesses going under and foreclosures sure as hell will go up the longer we drag this out.
Is Not a Turtle
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Yeah I don't think it's a desire to see this group effected over others but, to discount the necessity of immune systems to confront and deal with this virus is just wrong.

Humans must be exposed to gain immunity and given the data 20 somethings handle it better than any other adult group. These are facts.

I am starting to get to the point where I think we just all mask up and go all in on living.

If every business just asked people to wear masks the problem would solve itself over time. People would still get infected and exposed but the rate would be measured and reduce the probability of a 'spike' in cases that overwhelms our hospital capacity.
Ribbed Paultz
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Or we could try to prevent as many illnesses as possible until a vaccine comes out, which likely will not take "years".

There's some irrational confidence involved if you think you are just going to get this and be fine. Yes the chances are that's correct. But the real truth is we have no idea how this will affect one person specifically short-term or long-term. It's not a "sky is falling mentality". It's just reality.
oklaunion
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According to Brazos County CEOC statement, on 6-16-2020 for about 2 hours, there was only 1 ICU bed available in all the Brazos Valley hospitals.

I appreciate all the updates and stats from all here but, back a month or so ago when daily cases went from 5 to 12 or so, the comments from several posters here were something like, " and now all the doomsdayers will demand a lockdown, etc".

Now they jumped to 60 cases one day within the past week and 145 on one day this week and the same comments are made by the same people. I am getting the feeling I am seeing a frog being gradually boiled without realizing it. I realize the economic impact. I have 3 kids and in-law kids essentially out of work. Very elderly parents who haven't left their house in 3 months. Currently semi-supporting 2 individuals. Probably no different than many of you. But I have no desire to have a waiting list of funerals to arrange. And like many here, I have a list of several to attend once this is over.
Esteban du Plantier
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I think it also takes a lot of confidence to believe a vaccine will be readily available while there's enough time for it to make a difference.

How's that aids vaccine coming?
Ribbed Paultz
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Mandatory masks are a simple and effective solution. New Mexico has a mandatory mask policy. States in the northeast have mandatory masks and have dramatically reduced their case incidences and deaths.

But Abbott, local leaders, etc won't create a mandatory mark policy or enforce one because of concerns about individual freedoms. I get that concern, but without mandatory masks, we are just going to make this problem a lot worse than it needs to be.
Ribbed Paultz
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Comparing the vaccine development process of HIV and coronavirus is intellectually dishonest. Never in mankind's history have so many monetary resources and scientific/technical acumen been placed behind a vaccine development program. Some vaccines are already in development for widespread use even before clinical trials!

So there is definitely some confidence involved in saying a vaccine will be ready, but I wouldn't call it irrational confidence.
Is Not a Turtle
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To this point, that is precisely why I think businesses should lead in bringing about a masked everywhere policy.

Since we know the simplest point of the mask is to stop droplets from exiting at velocity carrying viral load, many places could offer out cheaper masks and let customers ditch them at the door if they don't want to wear one.

I say all this as a person who is not a constant mask wearer. If this is the cost of getting a closer to normal economy. It's totally worth it because the human cost from the virus and from the tanking economy will be enormous if that same economy doesn't step in to try and stop the virus.
coconuthead
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"We could either deal with it in a short period of time minimizing the amount of economic damage. Or we could slow the spread so our economy is shut down for years. Ultimately, I'm not sure the number of covid deaths will change, but suicides and businesses going under and foreclosures sure as hell will go up the longer we drag this out."

This reads as a false choice (either/or).

There is, for example, the additional possibility of slowing (not stopping!) the spread while also minimizing the amount of economic damage.

From my standpoint, that looks like going about my usual routine for the most part but wearing my mask while I do so in order to try to prevent myself from inadvertently contributing to the spread, should I be contagious and not realize it. While virus particles are small enough to get through, droplets themselves can't really.

I have a "better" mask I can also wear if I want to try to prevent contracting it more effectively than my "day to day" mask will accomplish.

Masks aren't perfect, but they seem like how I can contribute to making sure there are resources available for everyone who needs them (including me if I get in a car accident or something). So, I think it's worth it to do what I can to help.
Esteban du Plantier
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Less than 700 people in my age group have died nationally.

I don't think it takes irrational confidence to assume I'm going to be just fine.
Esteban du Plantier
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My argument is primarily against the 'sky is falling' types that will say we need to close everything back down.

I wear a mask when I'm out and about.
FlyRod
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Unfortunately the economic argument cuts several ways. One very real possibility locally is, assuming no govt shutdowns (as Abbott stated) will happen, more and more people will hunker down and stop patronizing local businesses, out of concern for spiking and spreading infections. Maybe there's enough disposable income in the 20-30 something demographic here to keep the local economy afloat...I'm doubtful.

A&M is another matter. Wildfire spread among students means older staff and faculty get sick, scared parents pull their kids out, A&M takes its own hits and results in another blow to the local economy.

Just possibilities are this point, that still can be avoided.
Is Not a Turtle
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Not to derail but this is the exact situation I see unfolding in September.

This is one of the biggest blows the local economy could see.

If the situation you lay out occurs, which I think has a higher probability than not, this will crush the BCS economy for at least 3 years. I am not saying we wouldn't come out of it but, the lack of people attending on campus classes would further expand the cracks in the local economy.

Namely: the service industry would further depress, the TAMU system is not prepared to handle the payroll/personnel load to which they have expanded in the past decade since the nationalization of the student loan program and scores of people will lose their jobs and ability to live in this community. The donations that support so many of the positions at and around the university will dry up furthering the issue.

When these two things happen there becomes less need for medical services locally and before you know it, the pillars of the local economy have been cracked at their core. The final pillar is the insulated local construction and development complex which will have to reduce it's scope drastically.

Then tax revenues decline and before you know it local governments have to make drastic cuts.

This will cause a depression in BCS that we have not experienced.

One good outcome is that the local leaders would have to reach out to private industry to expand the worker base in the area, and at least we have a lot of space to bring in industry.

I just wish the thought had entered into the conversation before we were close to the tipping point so that we could have moved some of these companies in and given them time to get established.

My doom and gloom is my own and YMMV.

/end rant and back to COVID talk
Rapier108
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70 new cases
0 deaths
84 new tests
27 in the hospital (+3 -3)

77801 +5
77802 +5
77803 +18
77807 +1
77808 +2
77840 +26
77845 +13

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/6.18.20.pdf

The pie chart showing ethnic breakdown wasn't updated on the English page, but was on the Spanish.

Looks like the biggest jump is still in the 0-29 age range.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Ribbed Paultz
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Early on it seemed that Bryan was more affected than CS, but now it seems flipped.
FlyRod
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Greater density of bars and restaurants in CS?
tb9665
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I have a relative that needs to be tested because of health issues and they might have been exposed. With their insurance he has to use one hospital. They contacted them and they basically said they did not need it and what would the purpose be to find out. They need to know so they can tell a specialist down in Houston. Is there a location where they can go and not be charged.
theNetSmith
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How much does it cost to be tested without help from insurance?
Is your relative living here in B/CS?
cavscout96
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FlyRod said:

Unfortunately the economic argument cuts several ways. One very real possibility locally is, assuming no govt shutdowns (as Abbott stated) will happen, more and more people will hunker down and stop patronizing local businesses, out of concern for spiking and spreading infections. Maybe there's enough disposable income in the 20-30 something demographic here to keep the local economy afloat...I'm doubtful.

A&M is another matter. Wildfire spread among students means older staff and faculty get sick, scared parents pull their kids out, A&M takes its own hits and results in another blow to the local economy.

Just possibilities are this point, that still can be avoided.
empirical evidence does not support this outcome. The only ones "hunkered down" are the truly vulnerable (who should be) and the hysterical.

People will not endure another shut down. This is evidenced by two things.

1- the amount of current activity
2 -the reluctance by jurisdictions to announce another one (no matter how badly they'd like to.)
FlyRod
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Not sure what data you are referring to as "empirical evidence," but guessing it's similar to mine: observation.

No one I know is cavorting around in bars and restaurants maskless, and I'm talking about people in their 30s-50s...so, no, it isn't just the 85 year olds with diabetes who are hunkering down. None of these people are hysterical either; they're just good at reading and interpreting actual evidence, vs. what internet randos claim is or is not happening.

I haven't seen any local public opinion data on what people will or will not tolerate re shutdowns. That will almost certainly be conditional on changing conditions, for better, or for worse. Read Judge Peters' new statement carefully, and watch that caveat about "things change day to day."
aggiepm
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There is actually a good bit of data about people making the choice to hunker down and I think we will see it soon if things continue the way that they are.

Check out this piece about falling restaurant attendance even before the lockdown: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-is-hitting-restaurants-hard-even-in-states-that-havent-shut-them-down/

Texas's restaurant attendance TANKED before any of the lockdown measures were put into place.
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