B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

639,609 Views | 4573 Replies | Last: 21 hrs ago by MiMi
Ag210
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AG
n/m
lockett93
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AG
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

1 African American
4 Caucasian
6 Hispanic
0 other


7 Male, 4 Female

we had:
3 in 40's
3 in 30's
3 in 20's
2 in 15-19

3 in College Station zips
8 in Bryan zips

6 Community
5 Cluster
trouble
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AG
How the hell do you miss that many tests?
nthomas99
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trouble said:

How the hell do you miss that many tests?

I suspect it's a systemic error that goes back some time. By my calculations, if those 1K tests are from the last week alone, the 7 day average positivity rate drops to 4.9%. I doubt a decline that big is the case. If so, that's a huge development in this whole things

Likely at least goes back to late April when our positivity rates started to dramatically go up. Even going back that far, it would notably change the perception of the spread of the virus.

I've asked on their FB page for more info about how far back it goes and ask them to provide a csv/xls file with the numbers restate. Not expecting much.
trouble
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AG
I saw that. We'll see if they actually answer you.
dubi
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Quote:

I've asked on their FB page for more info about how far back it goes and ask them to provide a csv/xls file with the numbers restate.
They absolutely should provide corrected back data!

The data on the mistake would be subject to an open records request; they have 10 days to respond.
nthomas99
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dubi said:

Quote:

I've asked on their FB page for more info about how far back it goes and ask them to provide a csv/xls file with the numbers restate.
They absolutely should provide corrected back data!

The data on the mistake would be subject to an open records request; they have 10 days to respond.

They've responded that all the additional tests were in the last week. I find this hard to believe and asked to them to confirm.
jeffk
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Test results from all the residents at Parc are back as of this morning. My family member tested positive and I know several others did also.
trouble
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I'm sorry. Praying for a quick recovery.
dubi
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Prayers!
Rapier108
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10 new cases
0 new deaths
616 new tests
5 in the hospital (-1)

77801 +1
77802 +1
77803 +6
77807 +1
77840 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.22.20.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nthomas99
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Rapier108 said:

10 new cases
0 new deaths
616 new tests
5 in the hospital (-1)

77801 +1
77802 +1
77803 +6
77807 +1
77840 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.22.20.pdf
"As staff and residents of local, long term care facilities are being tested for COVID-19, we expect an increase in positive cases and the number of tests performed over the next several weeks. This is part of a statewide initiative to increase testing capacity among vulnerable populations."

Good see this getting rolled out quickly.
lockett93
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q/edit

Today's results include:

0 African American
2 Caucasian
8 Hispanic
0 other


5 Male, 5 Female

we had:
1 in 80's
1 in 60's
1 in 50's
1 in 40's
1 in 30's
5 in 20's

1 in College Station zips
9 in Bryan zips

6 Community
4 Cluster

only 1 in 77807 which is Parc at Traditions, so I hope Jeffk is the only one to hear a positive result.
Rapier108
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And without a doubt, they will not tell us how many daily cases are from those test results, which should be listed as a separate line item.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
jeffk
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There's more than one positive at the facility which is in 77807, but a lot of folks there probably have different home addresses, so I'm not sure how they split those up or even if they're counted in today's batch.

For instance, my family member gets their mail at our place which is 77803.
theNetSmith
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KidDoc said:

I am actually really excited about the fact that most cases are cluster related. We same to have VERY little sustained community spread looking at the current active cases. I wish they would report how many of these cluster cases are still active.

In our region of roughly 100k we have just over 100 active cases so 0.1% of the population. Pretty impressive and likely to go up because it cannot go down much more.
According to the US Census Bureau, Brazos County had an estimated population of 229,000 as of July 1, 2019. So 100 active cases is 1:2290 or roughly .04%.

But the graph at http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.22.20.pdf says the number of active cases was much closer to 200 when you posted on Wednesday... so maybe 180:229000 or .08%, which is closer to your .1%..
ontheedge
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Is there a reason deaths aren't recorded? From what I can see things aren't looking bad here and I would agree that the cluster, likely young people, are most of the cases. Also, is there not a number for those recovered?
trouble
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Deaths are recorded.
cavscout96
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I'm generally not a fan of "infographics," but that has to be one of the most poorly executed I've seen.
trouble
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It's been awful since the beginning and they haven't made it any better.
Fitch
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texasaggie04
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theNetSmith said:

KidDoc said:

I am actually really excited about the fact that most cases are cluster related. We same to have VERY little sustained community spread looking at the current active cases. I wish they would report how many of these cluster cases are still active.

In our region of roughly 100k we have just over 100 active cases so 0.1% of the population. Pretty impressive and likely to go up because it cannot go down much more.
According to the US Census Bureau, Brazos County had an estimated population of 229,000 as of July 1, 2019. So 100 active cases is 1:2290 or roughly .04%.

But the graph at http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.22.20.pdf says the number of active cases was much closer to 200 when you posted on Wednesday... so maybe 180:229000 or .08%, which is closer to your .1%..

Not sure y'all are using the same denominator. "Our region" I assume means B/CS (sans students) versus Brazos county.
trouble
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The number of cases is for the entire county.
jeffk
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Expect a big jump in number of cases tomorrow.
cavscout96
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Fitch said:



this is interesting to me as Washington County had far less restrictive measures put into place and, aside from the concentrated outbreak at the nursing home, seems to have fared pretty well. OTH it is much less densely populated than Brazos on the whole.
redd38
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Northgate is poppin' tonight. Hopefully we see a spike in cases among the young, healthy population so we can get some herd immunity going.
benchmark
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FYI. Haven't seen this before .... 44% (651) of all Covid deaths (1,480) in Texas are from residents of Long-term Care Facilities.

Link: Cases and Deaths in Texas Nursing Homes and Assisted Living Facilities

Confirmed Cases among Long-term Care Residents (Texas) - 3,844
Fatalities among Long-term Care Residents (Texas) - 651
curry97
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45 new cases at Parc at Traditions
FlyRod
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Horrifying. All good thoughts to those folks and their families.
trouble
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Was just coming to post that.

https://www.kbtx.com/content/news/Parc-at-Traditions-sees--570721451.html
AggiePhil
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Not good!
Rapier108
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curry97 said:

45 new cases at Parc at Traditions
No real surprise. Once it gets into a nursing home or similar facility, it is almost impossible to stop.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Slocum on a mobile
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Using the statewide numbers, you can expect ~ 8 deaths if they keep the number to 45 in the facility.
MiMi
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S
Today's numbers: http://www.brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/5.23.20.pdf
foxfire
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After having these places controlled since around March 13, there is absolutely no excuse for this to happen.

Friends having relatives in like facilities in AZ and OH tell me the local management is very diligent in enforcing and monitoring who comes into the area.
 
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